2014 MLB Draft Thread

[howieramone1406390264]

I wonder if the same group of scouts that gave us Levi "I am such a disappointment I NEVER get discussed in this forum" Michael are responsible for scouting Turner given the proximity of UNC and NC State. Even acknowledging the uncertainties involved in projecting human performance, this thought unnerves me just a little.

 

Anyone who knows the Twins, knows Terry Ryan will make the final decision and everyone and his brother will see Trea Turner play and provide input. They are not going to leave this decision to Joe Area Scout. If Turner is a clunker the blame with fall on Ryan, if he becames a star the board will credit Bill Smith.

[Mike Sixel]

Actually, Ryan does not make the decision, the scouting director does. That's what we've been told, and I don't think Ryan is lying about that......now, Ryan is responsible for who the SD is, so it is still ultimately on him.

 

Nishioka, Worley, May, a bunch of college relievers....there are plenty of reasons to wonder if this is the same group that loved Sano and Buxton .....

[howieramone1406390264]

Actually, Ryan does not make the decision, the scouting director does. That's what we've been told, and I don't think Ryan is lying about that......now, Ryan is responsible for who the SD is, so it is still ultimately on him.

 

Nishioka, Worley, May, a bunch of college relievers....there are plenty of reasons to wonder if this is the same group that loved Sano and Buxton .....

 

I'm not saying he doesn't let his scouting director make the decision, but the pros and cons are certainly presented to him and he has veto power. Everyone has always said Ryan is involved in all decisions, to think he is not intimately involved in this one is silly.

[zenser]

I think I would take Gatewood over Turner if I had to choose between the two. Maybe Gatewood doesn't stick at SS, maybe he does. I am still holding out hope for Kolek.

[maxisagod]

?...now, Ryan is responsible for who the SD is, so it is still ultimately on him....

Huh, I honestly don't know, is that a St. Peter decision or A Ryan one? Who Would fire Johnson?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Nishioka, Worley, May, a bunch of college relievers....there are plenty of reasons to wonder if this is the same group that loved Sano and Buxton .....

 

I won't argue with you on Nishi, though that one really looks like a Bill Smith "get something done" move... Perhaps I'm wrong. I have a tough time believing that anyone scouted him... though if you read the write-ups on it, it isn't as though everyone came out and said "bad move"... The press was clearly reading other reports in the press. I wonder if the scouts were doing the same...

 

As for Worley and May, I'm still shocked we got a bucket of balls for Revere, so I'm not going to complain about the return.

[Mike Sixel]

Revere was a 1.7 and 2+ WAR player at ages 23 and 24....I don't get why people think he had no value when he was dealt.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Revere was a 1.7 and 2+ WAR player at ages 23 and 24....I don't get why people think he had no value when he was dealt.

 

Because I don't think he's ever going to be better than that. I like him and I hope he does well, but he's a speed guy who plays great defense, but has zero arm strength and zero power. He won't get a lot of walks b/c pitchers know he's not going to hurt them.

[golfboy1]

He did have value or the Twins never would have gotten Trevor May in the trade. I like Revere but I'm glad they made the trade.

 

WAR can be a useful stat but according to WAR Pedro Florimon had the Twins 3rd best season since he had a 2.1 WAR which is better than everyone not named Mauer or Dozier.

[kab21]

If the Twins decide Turner is the BPA, I have no problem with it. You can google practically as much info as you want on Turner and the vast majority is very positive. I don't recall seeing him referred to as a slap hitter, nor one word questioning whether he could stay at SS. Turner is rated by at least some as a 4 tool player, with power being below average. By below average, one said only 12-15 HR's. Our favorite team saw Stewart throw every pitch for two years. No reason to believe the Twins will use any less diligence on our next pick.

 

I will have a problem with it. If Turner doesn't hit for gap power then the Twins are taking a safe pick to help now when there are much higher upside talents in the draft.

 

While Turner is not hitting for gap power and directly not addressing the #1 draft concern, Gatewood hasn't shown us anything new. Gatewood had raw power before the season and hitting a 500 ft HR doesn't change anything. He needs to show that he will actually be able to hit the ball instead of every once in awhile blasting one to the moon.

[howieramone1406390264]

I will have a problem with it. If Turner doesn't hit for gap power then the Twins are taking a safe pick to help now when there are much higher upside talents in the draft.

 

While Turner is not hitting for gap power and directly not addressing the #1 draft concern, Gatewood hasn't shown us anything new. Gatewood had raw power before the season and hitting a 500 ft HR doesn't change anything. He needs to show that he will actually be able to hit the ball instead of every once in awhile blasting one to the moon.

 

I don't recall anything that says he doesn't project gap power. If the Twins feel he is the BPA and he will plays a premium position, who has greater upside? Honestly, I really don't care who the Twins take, I've just followed Turner the closest. We need a long term solution at SS and Turner will most likely be available.

[Willihammer]

Does anyone have batting avg/OBP/K/BB data on Gatewood so far? I can't find anything on google and don't have insider access to any of the prep sports sites.

[Oxtung]

Because I don't think he's ever going to be better than that. I like him and I hope he does well, but he's a speed guy who plays great defense, but has zero arm strength and zero power. He won't get a lot of walks b/c pitchers know he's not going to hurt them.

 

One thing I'm really excited to learn with the new defensive analysis tools coming out (hopefully publicly) is just how much OF arm strength matters.

[maxisagod]

Does anyone have batting avg/OBP/K/BB data on Gatewood so far? I can't find anything on google and don't have insider access to any of the prep sports sites.

 

His baseball team's twitter account says this.:

through 11 games he's hitting .371 with 2 HR with 7 RBIS 4 doubles and 8 runs scored.

Last year I though I heard he hit .320 BA.

 

Oh, and Alex Jackson had his first game of the year. 1-3 plus hit by a pitch. Found that here.

[cmb0252]

Does anyone have batting avg/OBP/K/BB data on Gatewood so far? I can't find anything on google and don't have insider access to any of the prep sports sites.

 

HS data is hard to come by and what does come out is normally not the whole story. Even more than college ball, HS ball has to be scouted by facts and not statistics. So far he has showed plus-plus power but still hasn't proven he has at least an average hit tool. Competition can be misleading on any level but especially in HS.

[cmb0252]

His baseball team's twitter account says this.:

through 11 games he's hitting .371 with 2 HR with 7 RBIS 4 doubles and 8 runs scored.

Last year I though I heard he hit .320 BA.

 

Oh, and Alex Jackson had his first game of the year. 1-3 plus hit by a pitch. Found that here.

 

Thanks for the update. I always have problems finding HS stats.

[cmb0252]

I don't recall anything that says he doesn't project gap power. If the Twins feel he is the BPA and he will plays a premium position, who has greater upside? Honestly, I really don't care who the Twins take, I've just followed Turner the closest. We need a long term solution at SS and Turner will most likely be available.

 

All draft prospects, prospects in general, have question marks. Turner's was his future power potential. 4 weeks in he has had 1 XBH which is killing him. While the Twins need a SS they might be able to find better value at other positions.

[Willihammer]

His baseball team's twitter account says this.:

through 11 games he's hitting .371 with 2 HR with 7 RBIS 4 doubles and 8 runs scored.

Last year I though I heard he hit .320 BA.

 

Oh, and Alex Jackson had his first game of the year. 1-3 plus hit by a pitch. Found that here.

 

Thanks. Its hard to make sense of HS stats. Mauer hit like .600 or something in HS I think, and famously struck out just once. So .371 strikes me as not bad but not great either.

 

Gatewood's swing does look a little rough even to me but that is something that can be coached. 500 foot power can't be coached.

 

What is so tantalizing about him in my view is the fact that he is hitting for so much power while still looking like he has good projectibility. I think the last report I saw put him at 6' 5" 190 pounds. If he stays thin, he stands a better chance to stick at short. If he gets too big to play short, then what sort of power are we talking about then. 600 foot? He is by far the most intriguing position player at this point IMO.

[markos]

What is so tantalizing about him in my view is the fact that he is hitting for so much power while still looking like he has good projectibility. I think the last report I saw put him at 6' 5" 190 pounds. If he stays thin, he stands a better chance to stick at short. If he gets too big to play short, then what sort of power are we talking about then. 600 foot? He is by far the most intriguing position player at this point IMO.

 

Just based on some of the reports I've read about Gatewood, I'm guessing that he will be one of those prospects that is acquired as a "shortstop" but quickly moves off of the position, similar to Sano, Mike Moustakas or the Upton brothers.

 

Definitely an intriguing prospect, and right now I wouldn't be disappointed if the Twins called his name at #5. I just don't expect him to stay at SS.

[Mike Sixel]

As long as the pick is closer to Buxton than to Serafini, I'm ok with any position. My preference is pitcher.

[kab21]

I don't recall anything that says he doesn't project gap power. If the Twins feel he is the BPA and he will plays a premium position, who has greater upside? Honestly, I really don't care who the Twins take, I've just followed Turner the closest. We need a long term solution at SS and Turner will most likely be available.

 

At some point elite draft prospects need to actually produce instead of relying on a scouting projection.

 

This also isn't an debate about whether Turner is a valuable prospect to have. It's a debate about whether he should be taken at pick 5 when there are other elite prospects available.

 

And need isn't part of the equation there. The Twins NEED potential above average or even elite players regardless of position. Getting an Everth Cabrera type should not be considered win at #5.

[howieramone1406390264]

At some point elite draft prospects need to actually produce instead of relying on a scouting projection.

 

This also isn't an debate about whether Turner is a valuable prospect to have. It's a debate about whether he should be taken at pick 5 when there are other elite prospects available.

 

And need isn't part of the equation there. The Twins NEED potential above average or even elite players regardless of position. Getting an Everth Cabrera type should not be considered win at #5.

 

Unlike other sports, the baseball draft is based almost solely on projection, seldom production. Note, I clearly stated if the Twins feel he is the BPA, not that they should draft for need. First I've heard he's a Everth Cabrera type.

[kab21]

He's not a HS'er. Stats from a major college program matter. If he doesn't hit for any power this spring then his draft stock is going to drop.

 

Note - He's only an Everth Cabrera type if he doesn't hit for power. I have consistently said in this thread that if he can project as an Ellsbury/reyes type bat then I am on board with this pick. Hitting 1 XBH in a month is not backing up that projection.

[pierre75275]

Kolek , Nola, Gatewood Turner how to pick just one? i want them all. Not to mention Beebe and Hoffman. Maybe we could get two with our first two picks...

[bird]

Actually, Ryan does not make the decision, the scouting director does. That's what we've been told, and I don't think Ryan is lying about that......now, Ryan is responsible for who the SD is, so it is still ultimately on him.

 

Nishioka, Worley, May, a bunch of college relievers....there are plenty of reasons to wonder if this is the same group that loved Sano and Buxton .....

 

I read somewhere I think that the same area scout who drafted Buxton is overseeing the scouting effort on Turner, but of course numerous scouts will study him.

 

Now, if one insists on crediting Billy Smith for landing Sano, one must discredit the man for his fail on Nishi. I personally think both would be a product of one's lack of understanding of how a large organization goes about such important business.

 

Worley and May were and still are considered by most as a very good return for Revere. If you're struggling with the limited admiration shown for Revere, look no further than at ALL his stats, such as his very pedestrian OBP, then ask yourself the question as to why he got pitched to the bottom of the order and drew the wrath of the Phillies fans in the blogs, and finally, ask yourself honestly why you might think he's going to get any better from here on out. Good trade, Mr. Ryan.

 

"A bunch of college relievers" is a phrase you've used before to cast a bad light on the decision about guys like Melotakis, Bard, and Chargois. Do you believe the verdict is in on those guys? And remember, mike, the same guys who made the call on those guys brought you Thorpe, Tonkin, Stewart, Goncalves, Berrios, Romero, Jorge, Jones, Eade, Rosario....not sure, mike, but you may have mentioned "a bunch of college relievers" and inadvertently forgot to mention these guys. More reasons to wonder, right?

 

Again, they have FIVE DOZEN PEOPLE involved in scouting and development. Of course it's the "same people that loved Sano and Buxton". According to many, there's never ANY turnover of personnel with the Twins.

[cmb0252]

OF Derek Fisher out 4-6 weeks with a torn labarum. While he isn't a top 5 prospect some experts had him going in the top 10.

[nicksaviking]

OF Derek Fisher out 4-6 weeks with a torn labarum. While he isn't a top 5 prospect some experts had him going in the top 10.

 

Maybe he'll now be considered a top 46 guy?

[cmb0252]

Maybe he'll now be considered a top 46 guy?

 

Haha, that would be nice but I'm guessing he is still a first round guy. Hey, Austin Wilson fell to 49 last year so anything is possible.

[cmb0252]

Keith Law chat today:

 

Aaron Nola top 5 pick?

Klaw (1:08 PM)

No shot. Good college pitcher in a draft loaded with great arms, college and high school. Nola in the top 5 would be a huge blunder.

 

Is Carlos Rodon overrated?

Klaw (1:12 PM)

He hasn't pitched up to expectations - fastball has been average, command average or a tick below, and he's not missing bats. I thought a month ago he was the clear 1-1 pick, but now I don't see it.

 

Is the top end of this year's draft stronger or weaker than last year's?

Klaw (1:13 PM)

Top end weaker. Rest of the first round is stronger than it's been in ages. It's going to rival 2011 and 2005 as the best drafts during my time in the business.

 

If Rodon is no longer the clear 1-1, has anyone moved ahead of him, in your opinion?

Klaw (1:27 PM)

I'll have a ranking up some time next week. I don't think there's anyone who's clearly 1-1, but I think Rodon's been passed by a few guys. Could make a cogent argument for him to be behind any of Kolek, Gatewood, Jackson, Hoffman, Beede.

 

Oh, I forgot Brady Aiken - prep lefty who was 94-97 in an inning in an exhibition game vs Alex Jackson last Saturday, with a plus CB too.

 

Just to be clear - You won't be shocked if in three months, Rodon is back to being the clear 1-1, right? It's early, and he's had a few sub-par starts.

Klaw (1:29 PM)

I wouldn't be shocked, no, but your characterization isn't accurate. It's not about subpar performance; it's about lack of the tools, other than the slider, that would make him the 1-1 guy.

 

Hoffman, Beede, Kolek: who has the highest ceiling and who has the highest probability?

Klaw (1:30 PM)

Hoffman. Plus-plus athlete with easy velocity and the potential for a plus curveball. Always bet on great athletes. Beede is the safe guy of the three, probably pitches at 92-93 when he's every fifth day, while Kolek ... you can't exactly go wrong with a 6'7" monster who legitimately hits 100+.

Weren't you pretty confident of Rodon as not just the obvious 1-1, but as one of the best prospects of the last few years? It's not like you're dropping him out of the 1st round, but do you remember anyone else falling so fast from such a height?

Klaw (1:33 PM)

I thought he was the obvious 1-1, but argued that he wasn't Strasburg or Harper. He wasn't that kind of elite, but he was a lot better than he's been so far this year - and given that he's had some back trouble in the past and he doesn't offer physical projection, I can easily understand why scouts/execs are backing away from him.

 

2nd Best '14 prep arm: aiken or holmes?

Klaw (1:50 PM)

Tough call. Would have said Holmes before Aiken had that one-inning velocity spike. Probably still will, but if Aiken shows that kind of fastball when he's lengthened out, that's tough to beat.

Why are you not as high on Trea Turner as most draft gurus? He looks like a faster Michael Young if he maxes out.

Klaw (1:58 PM)

I don't comment on what other writers might say about players or the draft, nor do I consider that in my rankings or writeups. I see players, I talk to scouts, I write about it. Turner isn't close to Young - no power, bad swing, not physical, only thing he has in common with Young is that he probably won't stay at short.

 

 

[cmb0252]

Keith Law chat part 2:

Between Jacob Gatewood and Nick Gordon, who has the better hit tool? Heard rumblings Gatewood's hit tool might not be good enough for him to showcase his power in the higher levels.

Klaw (2:03 PM)

That's changed this year - Gatewood is hitting better, using the whole field, showing a more mature overall approach. Love both guys but Gatewood seems like he's going in the top 5-6 at this point.

 

Hartford's game at Nova tomorrow was canceled. Do you have any plans to see Newcomb this year? Does he still have a shot at cracking the top five come June? What does he have to show given the competition level?

Klaw (2:21 PM)

I'll see Newcomb in April or May when I'm up there for Baseball Tonight. Top ten potential, has to throw strikes.

 

He also answered several Twins prospect questions:

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/50186/mlb-insider-keith-law