2014 MLB Draft Thread

[kab21]

That is kind of the worst case scenario actually. That probably means that the Twins are picking 5th in a 4 player draft and are left to choose between the next tier of players that would like to be guaranteed a below slot deal at #5 instead of taking a chance and falling to #10.

[cmb0252]

That is kind of the worst case scenario actually. That probably means that the Twins are picking 5th in a 4 player draft and are left to choose between the next tier of players that would like to be guaranteed a below slot deal at #5 instead of taking a chance and falling to #10.

 

I actually feel right now this draft is currently 5 strong at top and could be 7 by draft day. Rodon, Hoffman, Kolek, Jackson, and Beede are my top 5. If the reports are true that Gatewood has look great and hit a "reported" 500 ft home run this weekend you could add him to the mix. If Aiken really hit 97 this weekend and can show a consistent uptick in stuff then he could be a top 5 talent.

[cmb0252]

Not only did we get one mock draft a second one. This time by Matt Garrioch at minorleagueball:

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/3/10/5485534/2014-mlb-mock-draft-version-1

[tobi0040]

Not only did we get one mock draft a second one. This time by Matt Garrioch at minorleagueball:

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/3/10/5485534/2014-mlb-mock-draft-version-1

 

 

5. Minnesota Twins: Tyler Kolek, RHP, Texas HS

The Twins have need for immediate impact and upside. While a player closer to the majors may make more sense, Kolek may have the highest ceiling of any arm in the draft and could be one of the quickest to the majors out of high school.

 

Word for word the same write up and result as Kohl Stewart last year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I understand reaching for a guy so you can go underslot with him and overslot on the next guy, but I don't like it. I want the BPA mostly because there's no promise the guys you like with pick #2 will be there.

 

That's why it would be nice if an underslot guy happened to be the BPA at #5.

 

I tend to agree, but there's a time and a place, especially if the Twins think the BPA at that point is a guy who is like to go at 10 as opposed to 5. Also, there's the risk/reward scenario where you might think that a B and a B+ guy is worth more than another slightly better B+ guy. Let's just hope there are 5 guys with elite level skils on them, and it won't matter.

[cmb0252]

Draft prospect weekly recap.

College pitchers

 

Carlos Rodon- 9 innings, 10 H, 3 ER, 7 K, 1 BB. Pitched 121 pitches.

 

Hoffman- 3.1 innings, 2 H, 3 ER, 7 K, 6 BB, 2 HBs. Bad outing. Here is a scout quote from Chris Crawford:

"He just never looked comfortable," an area scout said. "Some of the walks were on 3-2 pitches and there were some borderline strikes that I thought they missed, but that'd be an excuse if there was two or three walks, not seven. My concern is that he's now followed solid outings with mediocre or worse outings each time. I need to see more consistency."

 

Beede- 7 innings, 6 H, 1 ER, 9 K, 0 BB.

 

Aaron Nola- 8 innings, 2 H, 0 ER, 12 K, 0 BB. A scout quote about Beede and Nola from Chris Crawford:

"I think they're both guys who could go in the top 10," said an AL East scout who has seen both pitch this year. "They're not terribly similar; Nola misses bats more with location and Beede more with overpowering stuff. But right now, they're both firing on all cylinders and if they keep this up in conference play, there's no telling where they could go.

 

Sean Newcomb- 7 innings, 2 H, 0 ER, 8 K, 3 BB. Fastball was clocked at 90-95. Here is a scouting quote from BA:

“You almost had to check the gun again to after some of those fastballs where it looked like he just lobbed it in there, but then you check and you are like ‘Wow, that was 94.’ It comes out as easy as you will ever see 95 come out,” an American League scouting executive said.

“I think if he has a lot of starts like he did Friday night he is going to go pretty good,” the executive said.

 

Quotes from Crawford's article are here (insider):

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/

Quotes from BA here:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-stat-roundup-week-4/

[cmb0252]

Draft prospect weekly round up

College hitters

 

Turner- 10 AB, 4 R, 3 H, 0 RBI, 2 BB, 0 K, 0 XBH.

 

Fisher- 11 AB, 0 R, 2 H, 0 RBI, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 2B.

 

Schwarber- 13 AB, 5 R, 5 H, 1 RBI, 3 BB, 1 K, 1 2B, 1 HR (2). Scouting quote from a scout on Schwarber from Crawford:

"I'm not sure there's a better pure hitter in the entire class," an NL Central scout said. "There's 70 [on the 20-80 scouting scale] power and he's shown the ability to work walks and go the opposite way.

 

"My only concern [with Schwarber] is where he's going to be defensively. I don't think he can catch, and even though he's played it I don't think there's a chance he has the athleticism to play first. But if [Mariners 2013 first-round pick] D.J. Peterson was a top 12 pick, I think Schwarber is, too."

 

Pentecost- 16 AB, 1 R, 4 H, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 4 K, 0 XBH.

 

Zimmer- 11 AB, 2 R, 3 H, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SB, 1 2B, 1 HR (3).

 

Quote from Crawford (insider):

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/

[cmb0252]

Draft prospect weekly round up:

HS pitchers:

 

Holmes- 5 innings, 12 K, hit 97 on the radar guns. Showed a plus breaking ball and improved change up. Here is a scouting quote from Crawford:

"The development of the change is the big thing for me," an NL West scout said. "It has always looked like a quality offering, but he relied so much on his fastball and curve. Now he's mixing in that change and it essentially makes him unhittable against the competition he faces. He's a top half of the first-round guy, for sure."

 

Aiken- didn't find his stats but there were several tweets that he looked good and his fastball hit 97.

 

HS hitter

 

Gatewood- showed plus-plus power by hitting a 483 foot HR! Here is a quote from Crawford:

"Anytime you get a guy who has that much raw-power and has a chance to play shortstop, you're going to be intrigued," an NL Central area-scout said. "He has as much raw pop from the right side as any prep shortstop I can remember. But he needs to show that he's capable of doing more than just trying to hit everything 900 feet.

Quotes from Crawford are here (insider):

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/

[cmb0252]

5. Minnesota Twins: Tyler Kolek, RHP, Texas HS

The Twins have need for immediate impact and upside. While a player closer to the majors may make more sense, Kolek may have the highest ceiling of any arm in the draft and could be one of the quickest to the majors out of high school.

 

Word for word the same write up and result as Kohl Stewart last year.

 

I would love Kolek at 5. Big time prospect.

[nicksaviking]

That is kind of the worst case scenario actually. That probably means that the Twins are picking 5th in a 4 player draft and are left to choose between the next tier of players that would like to be guaranteed a below slot deal at #5 instead of taking a chance and falling to #10.

 

That would make sense, but last year both Appel and Gray went quite a bit under slot.

[kab21]

That would make sense, but last year both Appel and Gray went quite a bit under slot.

 

Appel went #1 in a 3 (or 4) player draft so the Astros had leverage. Gray is an interesting case but the Rockies must have convinced him that they would pass on him.

 

I actually feel right now this draft is currently 5 strong at top and could be 7 by draft day. Rodon, Hoffman, Kolek, Jackson, and Beede are my top 5. If the reports are true that Gatewood has look great and hit a "reported" 500 ft home run this weekend you could add him to the mix. If Aiken really hit 97 this weekend and can show a consistent uptick in stuff then he could be a top 5 talent.

 

I also think this is a deep draft at the top but people should aside any expectations that the Twins will be able to go underslot at #5 if there is a tier of 5-6 players at the top. The Twins definitely want to be drafting in that tier and not in the 2nd tier of this draft where you could get some values on draft day.

 

So far Beede is feeling like the Gray of this draft while Hoffman might be the Manaea. Manaea still got paid like the #6 pick but he slid pretty far once he started falling.

[Oxtung]

I understand reaching for a guy so you can go underslot with him and overslot on the next guy, but I don't like it. I want the BPA mostly because there's no promise the guys you like with pick #2 will be there.

 

That's why it would be nice if an underslot guy happened to be the BPA at #5.

 

There is also no promise that your BPA guy is going to be any better than the under-slot guy. Top 5 picks bust and mid-round picks become stars all the time.

 

Here's another way of looking at it. If you go the underslot route you have 2 good chances to hit that lottery instead of 1.

[Mike Sixel]

KLAW's article today is on the draft. Insider required.....

 

Calls Nick Gordon (HS) the best SS prospect in the draft, worthy of a top 10 pick. The rest is about guys he thinks are 2nd or 3rd rounders....

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post/_/id/1349/nick-gordon-the-drafts-top-ss-prospect

[nicksaviking]

There is also no promise that your BPA guy is going to be any better than the under-slot guy. Top 5 picks bust and mid-round picks become stars all the time.

 

Here's another way of looking at it. If you go the underslot route you have 2 good chances to hit that lottery instead of 1.

 

You could, but generally in that scenario, you're still passing up the guy with the highest upside. I'm not disagreeing that it's a valid approach, I just prefer taking the guy who appears to be the best player even while acknowledging that it's not a perfect science.

[nicksaviking]

KLAW's article today is on the draft. Insider required.....

 

Calls Nick Gordon (HS) the best SS prospect in the draft, worthy of a top 10 pick. The rest is about guys he thinks are 2nd or 3rd rounders....

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post/_/id/1349/nick-gordon-the-drafts-top-ss-prospect

 

Everything I've heard about him makes him sound like a HS Trae Turner. Should stick at SS but it's not a certainty, lots of speed and likely very little pop. What is it that Klaw likes in him but doesn't in Turner?

 

And for the record, I'm not a Turner guy until he can prove he's more than a slap hitter.

[Mike Sixel]

I won't quote the whole thing....

 

"He's quite a bit stronger this year, adding 10-plus pounds of muscle, so he's better able to turn on good fastballs and has been showing more pop........... If he keeps his hands near his left shoulder, he'll be able to make contact at high rates even as the quality of stuff he's facing improves."

[oldguy10]

Correct me if I am wrong on this observation - If both Turner and Gordon are outstanding fielders at shortstop and I'm talking Marc Belanger good isn't being a slap hitter okay? I certainly think so.

[maxisagod]

Correct me if I am wrong on this observation - If both Turner and Gordon are outstanding fielders at shortstop and I'm talking Marc Belanger good isn't being a slap hitter okay? I certainly think so.

 

Yes it is, even 1st round okay. The questions is in a deep draft, is it top five pick okay?

[kab21]

Correct me if I am wrong on this observation - If both Turner and Gordon are outstanding fielders at shortstop and I'm talking Marc Belanger good isn't being a slap hitter okay? I certainly think so.

 

If we're talking about slap hitter like Ben Revere then no. If we're talking about a hitter that can hit .285, take a walk, drive the ball into the gaps and hit 10 HR's (think ellsbury) then absolutely yes.

 

The other issue is that neither Turner nor Gordon are elite fielders. They are both projected to stay at SS and have very good defensive tools but that describes many MLB SS's and most utility guys.

[Willihammer]

Turner has 1 xbh (a double) in first 16 games (of 58).

[cmb0252]

Turner has 1 xbh (a double) in first 16 games (of 58).

 

Yeah, he definitely isn't helping his case for a top 5 pick currently. While I still enjoy what he brings to the table I would really have to see more xbhs and walks to take him at 5.

[Kwak]

Yeah, he definitely isn't helping his case for a top 5 pick currently. While I still enjoy what he brings to the table I would really have to see more xbhs and walks to take him at 5.

 

Wait! Does he: slide into 1B, get his uniform dirty, and in general "get after it"? Those guys don't have to hit so much.

[Dance with Disco Dan]

I am formally signing up for the anyone-but-Turner draft package. I'd be disappointed if the Twins reached for a quick-to-the-majors college pitcher over a higher-ceiling high school player but I'd beside myself if we used a top-5 pick on a light-hitting college position player. If the top pitchers remain healthy through the draft, all the position players could very well still be on the board when the Twins pick. Nothing I've read convinces me Turner is (or will be) the best position prospect in the draft. He sounds like a nice player that deserves first-round consideration but, please TR, not at no. 5.

[Parise11]

BBCOR has made scouts jobs a lot easier.

[markos]

Nothing I've read convinces me Turner is (or will be) the best position prospect in the draft. He sounds like a nice player that deserves first-round consideration but, please TR, not at no. 5.

 

This sums up my current position on Turner. Yes, he is a nice player with some intriguing tools, but I don't think he is one of the top-5 players in the draft.

[nicksaviking]

Correct me if I am wrong on this observation - If both Turner and Gordon are outstanding fielders at shortstop and I'm talking Marc Belanger good isn't being a slap hitter okay? I certainly think so.

 

With the #5 pick? No, you can't take Mark Belanger. He was good at exactly one baseball activity. You can't pick a guy with only two (and defense and arm strength really are the same tool) of the five tools and expect him to work out. You'd have to have everything break perfectly. If Belanger had only turned out to be an average defensive player, he probably would have never made it to the majors. He had no other tools that made him useful.

[howieramone1406390264]

If the Twins decide Turner is the BPA, I have no problem with it. You can google practically as much info as you want on Turner and the vast majority is very positive. I don't recall seeing him referred to as a slap hitter, nor one word questioning whether he could stay at SS. Turner is rated by at least some as a 4 tool player, with power being below average. By below average, one said only 12-15 HR's. Our favorite team saw Stewart throw every pitch for two years. No reason to believe the Twins will use any less diligence on our next pick.

[cmb0252]

If the Twins decide Turner is the BPA, I have no problem with it. You can google practically as much info as you want on Turner and the vast majority is very positive. I don't recall seeing him referred to as a slap hitter, nor one word questioning whether he could stay at SS. Turner is rated by at least some as a 4 tool player, with power being below average. By below average, one said only 12-15 HR's. Our favorite team saw Stewart throw every pitch for two years. No reason to believe the Twins will use any less diligence on our next pick.

 

Turner came into the season with question marks about his power. Not only has his power been poor but one of his strengths, good plate discipline, hasn't shown. There is plenty of time to turn it around but he hasn't done anything yet to show he is a top 5 prospect.

[Mike Sixel]

I wish I blindly trusted the scouts to make the right decision......

[Dance with Disco Dan]

I wish I blindly trusted the scouts to make the right decision......

 

I wonder if the same group of scouts that gave us Levi "I am such a disappointment I NEVER get discussed in this forum" Michael are responsible for scouting Turner given the proximity of UNC and NC State. Even acknowledging the uncertainties involved in projecting human performance, this thought unnerves me just a little.