2014 MLB Draft Thread

[diehardtwinsfan]

Thanks for that, cmb. I understand it's pretty early, but I have severe concern over drafting someone with a 40 hit tool. IMO, it's the most important tool for position players with some extreme exceptions. How well does Gatewood field his position? If he has Jose Iglesias/Andrelton Simmons defense, it doesn't bother me as much. From everything I've gathered, however, that appears not to be the case. He very well might improve his hit tool over the course of the season, but I personally would opt for someone else at #5 if his hit tool remains at 40 come draft day.

 

This is the first time I've heard about the hit tool being that low. That can be one scout's opinion I suppose, but a 40 hit tool is not a top 5 pick. Hopefully for his sake that changes a bit... If it doesnt, give me one of the pitchers please.

[cmb0252]

My current top 10 is the following:

 

1. Carlos Rodon

2. Jeff Hoffman

3. Tyler Kolek

4. Tyler Beede

5. Alex Jackson

6. Trea Turner

7. Jacob Gatewood

8. Sean Newcomb

9. Grant Holmes

10. Bradley Zimmer (really high on him)

[Willihammer]

Kolek has some pretty serious crossfire in his delivery, approaching Jared Weaver level I'd say. I wouldn't want to be a RHB against him

 

[video=youtube;ZudfEfkzy0Q]

[maxisagod]

My current top 10 is the following:

 

1. Carlos Rodon

2. Jeff Hoffman

3. Tyler Kolek

4. Tyler Beede

5. Alex Jackson

6. Trea Turner

7. Jacob Gatewood

8. Sean Newcomb

9. Grant Holmes

10. Bradley Zimmer (really high on him)

 

I'm low on Holmes, partially because of his lack of ceiling or projection, partially because in every picture I see of him, he looks like the kid who sits in the back of classroom shooting spitball at his friends and drawing penises in his textbooks.

[bird]

Yeah, I'm really hoping they select a vagina guy.

[cmb0252]

BA put out an article about Ti'Quan Forbes and Bobby Bradley today. Both are eligible for the 2014. Good read.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mississippi-matchup-tiquan-forbes-vs-bobby-bradley/

[brvama]

Thanks, WH, for the video. While I'm not a scout or expert, I did notice a couple of things that trouble me about Kolek. He seemed to be a all over the place. His plant foot really isn't very consistent and his control seems to be weak. That change with coaching and repetition. It did seem to telegraph his curve. It is obvious that the catcher had quite a time handling him. That should also change as he moves up to better competition. Just wondering if my observations are legitimate or are skew from a 1Bman untrained eye.

[Willihammer]

Thanks, WH, for the video. While I'm not a scout or expert, I did notice a couple of things that trouble me about Kolek. He seemed to be a all over the place. His plant foot really isn't very consistent and his control seems to be weak. That change with coaching and repetition. It did seem to telegraph his curve. It is obvious that the catcher had quite a time handling him. That should also change as he moves up to better competition. Just wondering if my observations are legitimate or are skew from a 1Bman untrained eye.

 

Ya we are mostly amateurs here, some of us more amateur than others. If you see Kolek tipping his curve than you have a better eye than me. I think Callis has him going 2 so there is one pro's opinion. I've read a lot of reports about him but no mention of crossfire. From this angle you can see how far to the right he strides, that's yet another notch in his favor IMO.

[maxisagod]

Thanks, WH, for the video. While I'm not a scout or expert, I did notice a couple of things that trouble me about Kolek. He seemed to be a all over the place. His plant foot really isn't very consistent and his control seems to be weak. That change with coaching and repetition. It did seem to telegraph his curve. It is obvious that the catcher had quite a time handling him. That should also change as he moves up to better competition. Just wondering if my observations are legitimate or are skew from a 1Bman untrained eye.

 

Kolek control is his number one issue, on the other hand if his control was any better at this stage there would be no chance he falls to 5th. His curve is used more than his slider right now, and learning to stop tipping pitches is fixable, BUT some experts think his slider could end up better than his curve; meaning he could ditch the curve down the road and still be a dominate starter. Like you mentioned things like the foot issue can be fixed with professional coaching, but the reason Kolek is a round ahead other high school flamethrowers isn't just the extra mph or two he can put on his fastball, it's his size and the ease he can throw it (not labored).

[kab21]

If we were to combine the information from other threads (articles) concerning Santana (SS) and this thread, it is highly unlikely the Twins draft any SS this June. Plus, there is (so far) so much strong-positive information on pitchers (both college and HS) and combine that information with the fact the Twins just paid mega-millions on free agent pitchers (which is unprecedented at this scale for the Twins), I would be most surprised if the Twins did not select a pitcher at #5 this June.

 

A SS with a short swing that can chop it should have no bearing on the Twins draft.

 

The things that will determine if the Twins draft a SS at #5. Can Turner drive the ball? Can Gatewood hit the ball? I read in between the lines of last year's scouting report and this has been my biggest concern about Gatewood. I think the original comment was something like 'his swing is beautiful in batting practice with everything that you want but it hasn't translated to in game dominance'.

[brvama]

Again thanks Willihammer & maxisagod for your insight. I really enjoy everyone's comments here. It is very informative for those of us that have no idea who these guys are. Regarding the tipping of the curve - it looked like his was stepping wider than with the other pitches. Even though, it certainly is fixable. It was hard to tell all the time b/c of the position of the ump. (Disclaimer: B/c of an affliction of laziness I only watched the video once. Too much other good stuff to read here.)

[Willihammer]

Grant Holmes is intriguing me as a sleeper candidate. He won't turn 18 till later this month but he sure looks polished. Fastball is just ok but the secondary stuff looks filthy.

 

On YT there there is Perfect Game footage from two angles. You can see the movement really well from the first video and then get MPH readings on the same pitches on the t.v. footage (the 2nd video).

 

Besides the big hook, he throws a cutter. He throws 3 in a row starting at 2:18 on the top vid, and 2:16 on the second, all clocked 92-94 (batter is Alex Jackson).

 

[video=youtube;Ao0kvgZHauo]

[Willihammer]

2nd video

[video=youtube;K-3VE81ZhgA]

[cmb0252]

Grant Holmes is intriguing me as a sleeper candidate. He won't turn 18 till later this month but he sure looks polished. Fastball is just ok but the secondary stuff looks filthy.

 

On YT there there is Perfect Game footage from two angles. You can see the movement really well from the first video and then get MPH readings on the same pitches on the t.v. footage (the 2nd video).

 

Besides the big hook, he throws a cutter. He throws 3 in a row starting at 2:18 on the top vid, and 2:16 on the second, all clocked 92-94 (batter is Alex Jackson).

 

[video=youtube;Ao0kvgZHauo]

 

Grant Holmes fastball, that does have some movement, was clocked at 97 late in the showcase which turned some heads. He has a great curveball. He has an average changeup. The knock on him is he already physically maxed out which hurts future projections. If any of his pitches gain a tick he could be a top 10 option.

[cmb0252]

Christopher Crawford wrote a fantastic article on stats that matter for the 2014 draft. Here is a scouts quote on "stat scouting".

 

“You hear the term process and result a lot,” a long-time American League scout said. “And while I think that term gets overused, that’s really what we’re doing with statistics. If you just flat out ignore the numbers you’re going to get left behind, because they do tell part of the story. As scouts, our job is not to ignore the statistics or live by them, but to figure out why they’re happening.”

 

Here are a few of the stats Mr.Crawford says some teams use (while some don't).

 

1. Strike out to walk rate for pitchers. An NL scout had this to say:

 

“There are not many kids in this class who can miss bats like [beede or Toussaint], but if you don’t at least a 2-1 strikeout to walk ratio, then I’m not sure you’re worth a first-round pick."

 

2. Numbers against quality opponents for hitters. A lot of college guys won't ever make it to the pros so it is important to watch hitters vs "Friday night starters". Aka, the aces which at least have several pro level pitching tools. Crawford gives a few examples of top draft prospects who have done well and poorly vs Friday night starters.

 

3. Extra base hits for hitters. Here is Crawford's description:

"There’s a fairly substantial difference between raw and in-game power, and it’s one of the most difficult tools for scouts to accurately judge. Not only are they judging the player’s bat speed and swing path, but whether or not the player is going to add strength to his frame so that balls that die at the warning track will potentially be homers. So if a player is already putting up extra-base hits at the collegiate level, it’s definitely viewed as a positive."

These little bits and pieces does not describe how good this article is. There is a lot of good info so if you are an ESPN insider and draft fan it is well worth the read. Also, he has some info on the California prep players (Alex Jackson, Gatewood, and more).

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1336

P.S. if you want to see how hitters do vs Friday night starters Crawford's site, free, mlbdraftinsider.com usually does daily updates for weekend competition.

 

[cmb0252]

Talking about Grant Holmes he is one of 4 HS prospects who made BA's helium watch post. Here is the link:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/draft-tracker-high-school-helium/

[gunnarthor]

I'm really starting to dislike those stupid extra picks that MLB put into the end of the first round for low revenue teams. I'd really like to have a second pick in the 30s to nab a Berrios type talent but that's unlikely now.

[cmb0252]

I'm really starting to dislike those stupid extra picks that MLB put into the end of the first round for low revenue teams. I'd really like to have a second pick in the 30s to nab a Berrios type talent but that's unlikely now.

 

I hear ya. It sucks drafting in the 40s instead of 30s but this draft is supposed to be a lot deeper than the last two. Still should he pleny of talent. Our third round pick is in the mid to late 80s!

 

What is interesting to me is what the Twins do if the Twins take a HS pitcher at #5. This draft's strength is HS RHPing but would the Twins take two HS pitchers with their first two picks? They are a BPA team but that is a lot of risk at the top of the draft.

[nicksaviking]

What is interesting to me is what the Twins do if the Twins take a HS pitcher at #5. This draft's strength is HS RHPing but would the Twins take two HS pitchers with their first two picks? They are a BPA team but that is a lot of risk at the top of the draft.

 

I wonder also, but I suspect if they get a HS kid at #5, the second pick will be college or an easy sign HS kid. When they picked Buxton, they got a HS arm in Barrios, but he was an easy sign, they passed up McCullers even though I was dying for them to make it work. Another HS pick last year and an easy sign, low ceiling college senior was the pick.

 

I like Kolek and cheer for Gatewood to develop properly, but one of the top college arms at #5 might yield the best combination for the top two picks.

[howieramone1406390264]

I wonder also, but I suspect if they get a HS kid at #5, the second pick will be college or an easy sign HS kid. When they picked Buxton, they got a HS arm in Barrios, but he was an easy sign, they passed up McCullers even though I was dying for them to make it work. Another HS pick last year and an easy sign, low ceiling college senior was the pick.

 

I like Kolek and cheer for Gatewood to develop properly, but one of the top college arms at #5 might yield the best combination for the top two picks.

 

Eades was a high ceiling college junior. The Twins project him as a #2 and Mayo has as our 10th best prospect. He's a Boras client, so I'm not sure how easy he was to sign. I think many are confused because of the 15 make work innings he pitched after being drafting. Seth thought he might start in Ft. Myers, but regardless, IMO he's about as safe a starting pitching prospect as we have.

[nicksaviking]

Eades was a high ceiling college junior. The Twins project him as a #2 and Mayo has as our 10th best prospect. He's a Boras client, so I'm not sure how easy he was to sign. I think many are confused because of the 15 make work innings he pitched after being drafting. Seth thought he might start in Ft. Myers, but regardless, IMO he's about as safe a starting pitching prospect as we have.

 

You're right, I forgot he was a junior, there was some signing concerns. Still, he isn't and never was a high ceiling guy. The Twins may like him as a #2 but I don't think there are many pitchers who don't project to miss bats that have a high ceiling.

[howieramone1406390264]

Nick, I agree it's a concern. 6.8K/9 is definitely lower than what you would like to see, but equal to Hoffman who is currently rated #2. Hoffman's coach explained they are taught to get rid of each hitter with 2-3 pitches. Who knows. Believe the same scout who signed Stewart, signed Eades FWIW.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I wonder also, but I suspect if they get a HS kid at #5, the second pick will be college or an easy sign HS kid. When they picked Buxton, they got a HS arm in Barrios, but he was an easy sign, they passed up McCullers even though I was dying for them to make it work. Another HS pick last year and an easy sign, low ceiling college senior was the pick.

 

I like Kolek and cheer for Gatewood to develop properly, but one of the top college arms at #5 might yield the best combination for the top two picks.

 

I think it's more of a who than a what. If Kolek fell to them at 5, they could get him, but he's taking slot. If they liked Holmes a bit better, they might be able to reach down and get him below slot and then grab a tough sign in round 2. Either philosophy works in my opinion. Part of it depends on who is left at 5, and part depends on who they like the best. At this point, it's a bit early to tell. Once we hit May, we should have a pretty good idea on where people will be falling.

[cmb0252]

Christopher Crawford released his way too early mock draft tonight. Yes, a lot of things will change between now and draft day but who cares? Mocks are fun! Here is his list:

 

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/03/the-mock-2014-volume-i/

[ericchri]

Christopher Crawford released his way too early mock draft tonight. Yes, a lot of things will change between now and draft day but who cares? Mocks are fun! Here is his list:

 

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/03/the-mock-2014-volume-i/

 

Um, Trea Turner's listed position is C/3B/OF? Catcher? Bad proofreading, I hope? He's a lot less interesting with a basically unknown position than if he's a legit shortstop.

[markos]

I just read that LSU is playing against Vanderbilt this coming weekend. Right now the Friday night tilt should match Aaron Nola (LSU) against Tyler Beede (Van). Both names have been in the discussion for the Twins at #5, so if the game is televised it would be great to get a chance to watch them pitch.

 

So far both are putting up video game numbers this season.

Beede:

4 GS, 25 IP, 33 SO, 5 BB, 11 H, 1.08 ERA

Nola:

4 GS, 27 IP, 36 SO, 2 BB, 11 H, 0.00 ERA

[kab21]

Crawford doesn't appear to be a big fan of Turner's. I dislike these reasons for drafting Turner - fast track, speed and defense. He doesn't have to hit 20+ HR's but I want to read that he can hit.

[Kwak]

There are several "misprints" in this article. Example: #13 slot value well has to be wrong, and #30 Forbes is listed as a P, yet discussed as a SS. There are likely more--few players are listed as if they play three positions.

[InfraRen]

There are several "misprints" in this article. Example: #13 slot value well has to be wrong, and #30 Forbes is listed as a P, yet discussed as a SS. There are likely more--few players are listed as if they play three positions.

 

He tweeted last night that he accidentally posted his rough draft, and that he hates Wordpress. haha.

[nicksaviking]

I think it's more of a who than a what. If Kolek fell to them at 5, they could get him, but he's taking slot. If they liked Holmes a bit better, they might be able to reach down and get him below slot and then grab a tough sign in round 2. Either philosophy works in my opinion. Part of it depends on who is left at 5, and part depends on who they like the best. At this point, it's a bit early to tell. Once we hit May, we should have a pretty good idea on where people will be falling.

 

I understand reaching for a guy so you can go underslot with him and overslot on the next guy, but I don't like it. I want the BPA mostly because there's no promise the guys you like with pick #2 will be there.

 

That's why it would be nice if an underslot guy happened to be the BPA at #5.