2014 MLB Draft Thread

[Jim H]

I like the idea of taking the BPA pretty much wherever you are drafting in the early rounds. The problem is BPA can be sort of a slippery thing. The Twins received a certain amount of crap for drafting Revere. Many did not consider him a first round talent. Perhaps they were right, but Revere has turned into a better player than most who were drafted near where he was. So, was he a bad pick because he didn't have as a high a perceived ceiling as some who were available when the Twins drafted?

 

I think a good draft is when you end up with good players from that draft. A great draft is when you get an impact player, and maybe some other useful players. So, while I want the Twins to take the BPA and high ceiling players, sometimes I can understand why you might try to be a little safer.

[Oxtung]

But the original point was that good shortstops weren't available in a trade and I was just pointing out that they were. (And Bauer already had substantial doubters - esp in his own org - at the time of the trade). So it still makes sense to take BPA and trade for a position of weakness rather than take a lesser player for your teams needs now.

 

A couple of points. First, I think the game is changing/has changed from the late '90s and 00's where it was all about offensive ability. I think that we're seeing that finding a SS or C that can handle both the field and the bat is very difficult. Second, as salaries are rapidly rising and more players are choosing to forgo FA, because of the influx of new revenues especially by a few large markets, it seems that prospects are becoming more valuable and harder to acquire. I have no data to back up either of those assertions but that is my impression.

 

If those are true, it is harder to find SS, C and great SP, and prospects are more valuable, then it stands to reason it will be exceptionally hard to trade for SS, C and SP prospects. You brought up 3 trades in recent years but all 3 involved high level talent in return. Look at the Span trade, a solid starting caliber CF with a very good contract brought back a single pitcher at the A-ball level.

 

So, can you trade for these positions? Yes, but you have to be willing to give up a high value to obtain them.

 

Shields to KC, we all know how that turned out. Fister a good #2/3 starter to the Nationals brought back Robbie Ray who is a 50-150 type prospect. Greinke to LA brought back a ~#50 SS prospect in Segura. Jake Peavy for Jose Iglesias but Peavy is a back half of the rotation guy now and Iglesias had some big questions about his bat. Can you think of any other trades of recent years that involved a very good SS, C or SP?

 

 

I guess what I'm saying here is I think positional scarcity needs to be taken into account. There definitely seems to be some positions that are harder to find than others. That goes doubly so for SS and the Twins.

[cmb0252]

Sorry draft fans I forgot to push forward all the college player updates but I promise I will get them done tomorrow. For now draft nerds enjoy Chris Crawford's top 25 draft prospect board:

 

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/the-board/

[gunnarthor]

Sorry draft fans I forgot to push forward all the college player updates but I promise I will get them done tomorrow. For now draft nerds enjoy Chris Crawford's top 25 draft prospect board:

 

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/the-board/

 

Brady Aiken sorta sounds like Lewis Thorpe - potential for 3 above avg pitches, lefty with deception.

[nicksaviking]

Sorry draft fans I forgot to push forward all the college player updates but I promise I will get them done tomorrow. For now draft nerds enjoy Chris Crawford's top 25 draft prospect board:

 

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/the-board/

 

I like it. I'm a fan of those top 5.

[tobi0040]

I guess I'm not sure what you're getting at. If you want to have talent to trade for talent, you draft the BPA and then you can move him for the shortstop you don't have - like the Twins added three pitchers for Span and Revere. If Jackson turns out to be the BPA at #5 then the Twins should take him and, if he's blocked by Hicks, Buxton, Arcia, Kepler, Walker or whomever, they can make a trade.

 

Shortstop prospects are traded all the time. Elite shortstop prospects are rarer trades but that's true because they are elite, not b/c they are shortstops (now, being a shortstop might make a player better in people's eyes simply based on positional scarcity and such - like the Gigi/Bauer trade). If the Twins continue to stockpile talent in the farm system they can make moves to fix areas they are deficient in, if needed.

 

Let me give you one example of how an even money SS for OF is rare. The Rangers refused to give up Profar for Justin Upton. These guys are not on the same level, but it speaks to the scarcity at the SS position, relative to OF.

[cmb0252]

Draft prospect weekend recap.

College Arms:

Carlos Rodon-8 innings, 5 H, 3 ER, 9k, 2 BB. Stuff wasn't his best to start the game but ended strong.

 

Sean Newcomb-5 innings, 3 hits, 0 ER, 9 K, 3 BB. Sat at 91-93 but hit 95. Breaking ball showed average+ potential.

 

Jeff Hoffman- 6.2 innings, 5 H, 3 ER, 6 K, 3 BB. BA's scouting report:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/virginias-downtown-downes/

 

Also scouting quotes on Hoffman from Jim Callis:

"About 60 percent of his pitches were really good, but 40 percent weren't," the director said. "The 40 percent that weren't got hit. Certain guys, when they're throwing 95-98 mph, they make a mistake and it gets fouled back or hit weakly. It seemed like when he missed at 95-96, they squared it up."

 

"He flashed a 65-70 fastball, the changeup was really good and the curveball was good," the director said. "The changeup was outstanding, the best I've ever seen it. He threw a curveball and a slider. The slider was bad, but the curveball at times was pretty good, and others times it was a little spinner."

 

Tyler Beede- 6 innings, 1 H, 1 ER, 11K, 1 BB. Showed best control of his career and 3 potential plus pitches.

 

Aaron Nola: 7 innings, 0 H, 0 ER, 8 K, 1 BB. Two different scouts takes on Nola:

Reported by Jim Callis:

"He's the same as he was last year," a national crosschecker said. "He pitches in the 90-92 range with advanced polish, pitches to both sides of the plate and gets a lot of bad contact. His breaking ball keeps guys honest and I think his changeup will be better in pro ball because he'll use it more often.

"I have a hard time imagining there's a better pitcher out there with a better combination of polish and stuff. I think he'll be a fast mover who gets to the big leagues quick."

 

Reported by Chris Crawford:

"The only reason he's not considered a lock to start is because of that [low arm] slot," an NL East scout said. "You just don't see a lot of starters work from that low, left- or right-handed. It's not a question of his stuff, he could be a solid No. 4; maybe a No. 3 based on his arsenal.

 

"It's just going to take one team to think he's a starter to see him go early on day one. He's always shown he can throw strikes, but if he can show the kind of command he did (Friday)? He's certainly got a shot."

 

Callis quotes here (includes other prospect notes):

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140225&content_id=68310540&notebook_id=68310544&vkey=notebook_mlb&c_id=mlb

Chris Crawford's insider quotes here (includes other prospect notes):

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/

[cmb0252]

Draft prospect weekend recap:

College position players:

 

Treat Turner- 10 AB, 2 R, 3 H, 1 RBI, 1K, 2 BB, 1 SB.

 

Derek Fisher- 11 AB, 1 R, 4 H, 2 RBI, 0 K, BB. Law's take on Fisher-

"UVa left fielder Derek Fisher is the team's best all-around prospect, a plus runner with power and bat speed but results that haven't matched his raw ability. A left-handed hitter, he did show a better approach in the two games against East Carolina, especially in going with pitches on the outer half to the opposite field, but it wasn't consistent from at-bat to at-bat."

Max Pentecost- 15 AB, 2 R, 5 H, 4 RBI, 2K, 0 BB, 0 SB, 2B, HR.

 

Kyle Schwarber- 16 AB, 3 R, 6 H, 3 RBI, 2 K, 0 BB, 0 SB, 3B, HR. Jim Call is had a scout tell him this about Schwarber after the tourney:

 

"No question, he was definitely the best bat in the tournament," an area scout said. "He swung the bat well. I know he went 1-for-7, but he made hard contact all week, hit a monster home run and also hit a triple that kept going and going. Ten of us got him as an average runner down the line on one play, too."

"He was a better catcher than I've ever seen him," the scout said. "He didn't box any balls, and nobody ran on him. I wouldn't say he looked great, but he looked really good. Will he stay there? I don't know."

 

Callis quotes here (includes other prospect notes):

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140225&content_id=68310540&notebook_id=68310544&vkey=notebook_mlb&c_id=mlb

Law insider quotes here (includes other prospect notes):

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1299

[gunnarthor]

Let me give you one example of how an even money SS for OF is rare. The Rangers refused to give up Profar for Justin Upton. These guys are not on the same level, but it speaks to the scarcity at the SS position, relative to OF.

 

The other way of viewing that was that the Rangers were unwilling to trade the #1 prospect in baseball for Justin Upton. I get that there is some positional scarcity for real shortstops (which seems to be reflected in rankings - about 5 short stops were consistently ranked in the top 12 on most ranking systems). But my point when this started was that the Twins should take the BPA and worry about positions later. If Kolek is available at #5 and the Twins have him ranked above Turner, they shouldn't take Turner just b/c he represents a positional need.

[Willihammer]

I appreciate the positional scarcity argument but I don't want to trade offense for defense at no. 5. By every account I've read, and watching some video, Turner's a pretty small guy with limited offensive projectability. Everyone seems to agree on that. If we draft him and he stumbles through the minors, then we're back where we started: with another no hit slick fielding dime a dozen 8-9 hitter.

 

I'd be ok targeting someone like that in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. But at 5, I want to see the Twins shoot a little higher. Biggest arm available, or biggest bat available, pick one. JMO

[cmb0252]

Tyler kolek: 6 innings, 11K, 1 BB, 2 HB. Jim Call is reported a scout had this to say about Kolek:

 

"His velocity was fine, 92-98 mph for the four innings I saw, but the command was spotty," an area scout said. "Obviously, you don't find a big body throwing like that too often, but if I were picking up near the top, I'd be concerned about whether he's going to throw enough strikes. At this level, no one is going to be able to hit that fastball.

"He threw a few sliders at 84-85, a few curveballs at 79-80 and a few changeups. I [clocked] the changeup at 91. None of those pitches, I'd call plus. The curveball had better shape than the slider, which looks more like a cutter. But I'm not sure he threw any of those offspeed pitches for strikes."

 

Link to article here:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140225&content_id=68310540&notebook_id=68310544&vkey=notebook_mlb&c_id=mlb

[cmb0252]

Let me give you one example of how an even money SS for OF is rare. The Rangers refused to give up Profar for Justin Upton. These guys are not on the same level, but it speaks to the scarcity at the SS position, relative to OF.

 

Twins will take the player they think is the BPA regardless of position, team need, or relative distance to the bigs. They did it the last two years and they will do it again this year.

[Oxtung]

The other way of viewing that was that the Rangers were unwilling to trade the #1 prospect in baseball for Justin Upton. I get that there is some positional scarcity for real shortstops (which seems to be reflected in rankings - about 5 short stops were consistently ranked in the top 12 on most ranking systems). But my point when this started was that the Twins should take the BPA and worry about positions later. If Kolek is available at #5 and the Twins have him ranked above Turner, they shouldn't take Turner just b/c he represents a positional need.

 

I think you're conflating positional need with positional scarcity and value. They are 2 separate things. You can have a need at a position of scarcity, like catcher, or a need at a position that you can find on the FA market, like a corner OF. There can also be a league-wide scarcity at a position, like SS, and a team like the Rangers can be stocked with talent.

 

I'm not sure the Twins should consider "need" per se, but I do think they should think about positional scarcity.

 

Here is a simplistic way to think about it. Imagine you're stranded in the desert with 10 other people. The only water available to you is a little mud hole with mysterious scum looking sludge growing on it. Next to the mud hole there is a beautifully prepared New York Strip steak. Beside that there is a perfectly cooked lobster with butter dipping sauce and next to that there is a browned pheasant wafting the most amazing smells. The food continues down the line quite a ways each more appetizing than the last. Now you're thinking to yourself, damn that water is NASTY and I know my buddy next to me can hear my stomach growling. In the end though you had better be fighting for that water if you want to live.

 

Scarcity can make a commodity more valuable even if it is of a lower quality.

 

I think the real questions we should be asking are 1) What positions are scarce and how scarce are they? and 2) what does it cost to acquire those positions in comparison to other non-scarce positions and 3) How scarce does a position need to be to justify the including scarcity into the drafting equation?

 

In the end I'm guessing, like most things, that there will be a spectrum and there isn't a black and white answer.

[kab21]

I remain interested in but skeptical of Turner. If his bat is actually comparable to Andrus then I'm not a big fan but he doesn't need to hit like Tulo or ARod to be an offensive asset. Let's say he can hit .285 and walk enough for a .340 OBP. If he has enough pop for 8-10 HR's and 30-40 2B's then he's awesome. If he's a 3HR and 20-25 2B guy then he becomes less interesting compared to a potential #1.

[Willihammer]

To be clear, what's scarce are SS's and C's who can hit.

 

SS's and C's who can't hit aren't scarce at all.

 

Assuming Turner's glove sticks at SS, then it all is a question of bat. I for one am not convinced Turner has enough bat or even the potential to have enough bat to be a very scarce/valuable asset.

[howieramone1406390264]

I've never heard anyone question whether he will remain at SS. His lowest rated tool is power, which I've seen projected at 12-15 HR's. No doubt our favorite team has him under the microscope, as was Stewart.

[kab21]

To be clear, what's scarce are SS's and C's who can hit.

 

SS's and C's who can't hit aren't scarce at all.

 

Assuming Turner's glove sticks at SS, then it all is a question of bat. I for one am not convinced Turner has enough bat or even the potential to have enough bat to be a very scarce/valuable asset.

 

Does he have to have a Tulo bat to satisfy you? It seems that some are writing him off as a light hitting MI when it's more likely that he's neither a light hitting MI nor is he Tulo. With his speed he could have a Reyes bat at leadoff and that would be an awesome get.

 

My remaining questions are still does he have the real gap power (.150ish isoP) and does he have the plate discipline/contact ability to have a .285 BA with a .340 OBP. If those are yes then I could get on board with Turner but I remain skeptical.

[shs_59]

I'd really love to have the closest thing to RHP Braden Shipley from last year IN THIS draft.

 

He was a great college pitcher people seemed to think he'd be only average or a 4th starter type at the next level, Now he looks like a future stud and will be in AA or AAA already.

 

possibly a #2 and easily a good #3 starter.

 

He was overlooked in last years draft should of been a top 8 pick. not in the teens....

[gunnarthor]

I think you're conflating positional need with positional scarcity and value.

 

I think the best way to end this is to simply say that BPA takes both into account. After that, we're just talking past each other.

[Willihammer]

Does he have to have a Tulo bat to satisfy you? It seems that some are writing him off as a light hitting MI when it's more likely that he's neither a light hitting MI nor is he Tulo. With his speed he could have a Reyes bat at leadoff and that would be an awesome get.

 

My remaining questions are still does he have the real gap power (.150ish isoP) and does he have the plate discipline/contact ability to have a .285 BA with a .340 OBP. If those are yes then I could get on board with Turner but I remain skeptical.

 

Doubles and SB's are fine but I'd like to see at least JJ Hardy power potential, at the 5th overall pick. 20-25 HR/year.

[Mike Sixel]

Really? I think your bar is a bit high. Not many players even hit 25 HRs a year anymore, at any position. The odds of finding one, and developing one, are pretty low. If he's a legit SS that can get on base over 33% of the time, with speed, he's worth 3-4 WAR a year......no idea if he is that guy, but your bar, imo, is way off.

[Willihammer]

Really? I think your bar is a bit high. Not many players even hit 25 HRs a year anymore, at any position. The odds of finding one, and developing one, are pretty low. If he's a legit SS that can get on base over 33% of the time, with speed, he's worth 3-4 WAR a year......no idea if he is that guy, but your bar, imo, is way off.

 

If you aren't going to shoot for 25 HRs at no. 5 then when? No. 1?

[cmb0252]

BaseballAmerica article on Brady Aiken who has the potential to not only be the first HS lefty taken in the draft but a top 10 pick:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/a-day-in-the-life-brady-aiken-video/

[nicksaviking]

If you aren't going to shoot for 25 HRs at no. 5 then when? No. 1?

 

I'm with you. At #5 I want a 4-5 tool guy, not a 3 tool guy, even if he's a shortstop. The less tools, the less ceiling. There's just so much less margin for error if one of the assumed tools doesn't pan out.

[Mike Sixel]

Shoot for it all you want, expect it? That's not likely to happen, so being disappointed when it doesn't is just setting yourself up for disappointment.

[kab21]

Doubles and SB's are fine but I'd like to see at least JJ Hardy power potential, at the 5th overall pick. 20-25 HR/year.

 

So basically you are asking for Tulo at SS at #5?

 

With 10 HR's, the 2B's and the rest of his offensive skillset we are talking a Jose Reyes type. If his defense is even tolerable at SS then that is an awesome player and something this team really needs.

[Willihammer]

So basically you are asking for Tulo at SS at #5?

 

With 10 HR's, the 2B's and the rest of his offensive skillset we are talking a Jose Reyes type. If his defense is even tolerable at SS then that is an awesome player and something this team really needs.

 

FLorimon hit 9 HRs and we got him off waivers. Just saying.

[kab21]

FLorimon hit 9 HRs and we got him off waivers. Just saying.

 

The # of HR's that a player hits is a small part of of his offensive value. Florimon is a terrible hitter and Hardy is average. A player could easily be above average while only hitting 10 HR's.

[Willihammer]

HRs are only a small portion of offfensive value if you don't hit any.

 

edit: people realize these top 10 picks are going away if/when we start winning again, right? We need to stock up potential superstars with these picks. No. 1 starters or cleanup batters. Not speedy leadoff guys. If there's not a SS available with that sort of upside, then pass. Its not like there aren't alternatives at no. 5.

[nicksaviking]

The # of HR's that a player hits is a small part of of his offensive value. Florimon is a terrible hitter and Hardy is average. A player could easily be above average while only hitting 10 HR's.

 

I may not be on the same page as Willihammer but it's not that he needs to have power so much as he needs to have as many avenues to contribute as possible. Mauer was an assumed 5 tool prospect. He has turned out to be a great pick even though the power and speed didn't develop. His hit tool is great and he was a great defensive catcher for a long time. He's good despite only hitting on 3/5 of his tools but I'd imagine he'd be considered a bust if he'd only developed 2.

 

Going into the draft, if a guy only has three tools, he's going to have to hit on all of them. It could happen and he could play at his ceiling like Elvis Andrus, but the odds are likely against all three tools being as advertised.

 

However scouts may change their mind on Turner. They may end up believing he will hit well at the next level and/or develop some sneaky power. I'd be fine with a projection of lots of XBH and 10-15 HR if he can get on base. I'd take a Dustin Pedroia type at SS any day.