2014 MLB Draft Thread

[tobi0040]

(Note - do any of the top 3 pitchers even profile as #1's?).

 

I think you could make the case that about five pitchers in this draft could

end up being a #1 pitcher. I think Aiken and Rodon profile as the first two picks because of their chances of hitting that projection are better, they each have 2-3 pitches that are plus now or are close to projecting as plus.

 

But Kolek is 18 and can throw over 100, Touki is 18, touches mid 90's and has the best curve in the draft (have heard when on it breaks more than most good MLB curveballs), and Newcome is a 6-5 lefty that throws mid 90s with a future 70 slider.

[cmb0252]

I think batting average in a bubble is not the way to view hitting. You have power too, which is another tool altogether (one he doesn't have much of). It doesn't factor in walks at all. .270 with 5 HR and no walks is not a very good hitter for example

 

When describing a player's hit tool you are using predetermined numbers that are linked to certain grades. Hit is linked to batting average. Power and plate discipline are separate tools with their own predetermined grade numbers. A 50 hit tool is a ~.270 BA. A 5 HR power tool would be about about 35 grade (for the SS position) which Gordon definitely doesn't project to have. He is super athletic, 6'1 175-180 lbs with room to fill out, and has plus bat speed. To me that suggests 50-55 (SS) power which should result in HR totals in the teens.

[Mike Sixel]

Touki's curve is the key for me. Fangraphs ran a study that I referenced earlier, and "best curve" was more predictive of success than "best fastball", when looking at prospect rankings.

[tobi0040]

When describing a player's hit tool you are using predetermined numbers that are linked to certain grades. Hit is linked to batting average. Power and plate discipline are separate tools with their own predetermined grade numbers. A 50 hit tool is a ~.270 BA. A 5 HR power tool would be about about 35 grade (for the SS position) which Gordon definitely doesn't project to have. He is super athletic, 6'1 175-180 lbs with room to fill out, and has plus bat speed. To me that suggests 50-55 (SS) power which should result in HR totals in the teens.

 

I just see a bit of a catch 22 with him. Listed at 6-1, some have him listed at 6-2. Everyone says he should get bigger so he may develop power. They all say he sticks at SS. It isn't a lock that he grows off the position or a lock that bigger = more power. But it would seem like the more power he has the less likely he stays at SS. And nobody is saying he has a corner OF bat, 1B bat, etc.

 

Before everyone freaks out, I just wanted to point out a risk. I am not saying he moves off. I know this is an extreme argument, but look at Mauer and Sano at 18 versus now.

[tobi0040]

Touki's curve is the key for me. Fangraphs ran a study that I referenced earlier, and "best curve" was more predictive of success than "best fastball", when looking at prospect rankings.

 

Here is what I think you were referring to. Since most pitcheres have either a slider or curve, if you lumped those together you have a huge gap between breaking balls and fastballs and change ups.

 

 

One other factor maybe sliders seem harder on elbows than curves. So if judging based on how many make it and WAR, that would provide some additional support for a guy with a good curve like Touki.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-the-best-pitching-tools-translate-to-the-majors/

[Willihammer]

Sort of a sobering read: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1778406-how-tim-beckham-went-from-no-1-overall-pick-to-forgotten-man

[markos]

I think batting average in a bubble is not the way to view hitting. You have power too, which is another tool altogether (one he doesn't have much of). It doesn't factor in walks at all. .270 with 5 HR and no walks is not a very good hitter for example

 

This is a really important point. Last year Stephen Drew, Yunel Escobar, Didi Gregorius and Zack Cozart all had roughly the same batting average (.253, .256, .252, .254). However, their wRC+ were wildly different (109, 100, 91, 79). Drew walked and hit for average power. Escobar walked and hit for a little power in a bad ballpark (TB). Gregorius walked and hit for a little power in a really good ballpark (Arz). Cozart didn't walk and hit for a little power in a really good ballpark (Cin).

 

Just saying that someone has a "50 hit tool" seems incredibly inadequate when trying to capture a player's hitting abilities. At a time when we know so much about the various factors that capture a batter's value, it is bizarre that, more often than not, his hitting talent is still bundled up as a single number.

 

Regarding Gordon (and equally so with Jackson), I'd really like to know the following:

1) How good is his strikezone judgement?

2) Can he recognize and lay off tough pitches?

3) Can he make adjustments during at bats as well as between at bats, and from game to game?

4) How much does he expand his strike zone with 2 strikes?

5) What is his batting approach? Does he just react and swing at the first decent pitch, or does he wait for "his pitch" early in the count?

7) How much power can he generate? What is the hit velocity when he hits the ball?

8) How often does he pop up?

[cmb0252]

New mock by Crawford is up and has the Twins taking Gordon. Here is a link:

 

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/05/the-mock-2014-volume-vi/

 

While ESPN's Jim Bowden isn't know for his draft opinions that didn't stop him from doing his own top 10 mock draft. He has the Twins taking Freeland. Take it for what it is but here is what he had to say about the pick:

 

"The Twins have two of the best position prospects in baseball in center fielder Byron Buxton and third baseman Miguel Sano. Though they have a unique opportunity to draft this year's best shortstop in Nick Gordon, which would be an excellent selection, the Twins are never going to be legitimate contenders if they don't build the rotation. With Freeland sitting here at No. 5, they have to take the starter.

 

He has the best slider in the entire draft and his fastball sits 90-93. And though he doesn't play against the toughest competition at Evansville, he has an incredible 128 strikeouts and just 13 walks in 99 ⅔ innings this year."

 

Link to article:

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post?id=9471

 

[cmb0252]

This is a really important point. Last year Stephen Drew, Yunel Escobar, Didi Gregorius and Zack Cozart all had roughly the same batting average (.253, .256, .252, .254). However, their wRC+ were wildly different (109, 100, 91, 79). Drew walked and hit for average power. Escobar walked and hit for a little power in a bad ballpark (TB). Gregorius walked and hit for a little power in a really good ballpark (Arz). Cozart didn't walk and hit for a little power in a really good ballpark (Cin).

 

Just saying that someone has a "50 hit tool" seems incredibly inadequate when trying to capture a player's hitting abilities. At a time when we know so much about the various factors that capture a batter's value, it is bizarre that, more often than not, his hitting talent is still bundled up as a single number.

 

Regarding Gordon (and equally so with Jackson), I'd really like to know the following:

1) How good is his strikezone judgement?

2) Can he recognize and lay off tough pitches?

3) Can he make adjustments during at bats as well as between at bats, and from game to game?

4) How much does he expand his strike zone with 2 strikes?

5) What is his batting approach? Does he just react and swing at the first decent pitch, or does he wait for "his pitch" early in the count?

7) How much power can he generate? What is the hit velocity when he hits the ball?

8) How often does he pop up?

 

Theoretically it would be great to have that information on every single high school and college prospect but that is impossible. This isn't the big leagues where we record every little stat, have ever play on video, and have a base line to judge performance. It is hard enough to find basic counting stats for HS kids much less wRC+.

 

Here is ESPN's MLB Draft Scouting Scale:

 

 

• 80 - Hall of Fame Caliber Among the best ever. Should be getting out very, very sparingly. Miguel Cabrera's hitting; Giancarlo Stanton's power.
  
• 70 Perennial All-Star Well above-average ability in a particular area. Matt Harvey's fastball; Mike Trout's speed.
  
• 60 - All-Star Caliber Solidly above average.
  
• 55 - One Grade Above Average Overall production will consistently meet or exceed the league average for his position, or have a particular skill that is one tick above the league average.
  
• 50 - Solid-Average Player at the Major League Level For an overall grade, this represents a position player who will play every day in the majors, a starting pitcher in the third or fourth slots in a major league rotation, or an average middle reliever or setup man. For an individual attribute, this represents a league-average skill (a .270 batting average, a 90 mph fastball).
  
• 45 - Below-Average-Player Either a starter on a second-division club, or a bench player on an average or better club. Would include fourth outfielders, fifth/sixth starters, 11th/12th men on a pitching staff, etc.
  
• 40 - Future Potential Player An outside chance to get a "cup of coffee." Well below-average ability.
  
• 35 - Non-Prospects Will top out at, or likely before reaching, Double-A.
  
• 30 - Not a Pro Player A skill level just one tick above the worst possible grade.
  
• 20 - Lowest Player Grade Frank Thomas' running speed; Juan Pierre's power; Steve Blass' control.
  

 

Here is how Kevin Goldstein defines hit tool:

 

"Quite simply: the ability to routinely put the ball into play by making solid contact with the barrel of the bat on the middle of the ball. As you can note from the scouting report above, this is different from hitting for power, which is graded out as a different tool. This is more the ability to hit for a high batting average."

 

He goes into more depth here on what factors scouts actually include in the hit tool:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4860

 

Scouting grades are far from perfect but they don't have to be. They are just one aspect of scouting. Obviously they have value or why would every professional scout use them?

 

For fun, here is an A's scout's scouting report on Joe Mauer:

 

http://m.thewhistle.com/news/baseball/oaklands-scouting-report-joe-mauer-2003/830/

[notoriousgod71]

Touki's curve is the key for me. Fangraphs ran a study that I referenced earlier, and "best curve" was more predictive of success than "best fastball", when looking at prospect rankings.

 

Touki has only been playing baseball for four years so that could bode well for his future health if you are a fan of the "There's only so many bullets in the chamber" theory. The comps I've seen compare him favorably to a young Dwight Gooden.

[Dman]

New mock by Crawford is up and has the Twins taking Gordon. Here is a link:

 

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/05/the-mock-2014-volume-vi/

 

While ESPN's Jim Bowden isn't know for his draft opinions that didn't stop him from doing his own top 10 mock draft. He has the Twins taking Freeland. Take it for what it is but here is what he had to say about the pick:

 

"The Twins have two of the best position prospects in baseball in center fielder Byron Buxton and third baseman Miguel Sano. Though they have a unique opportunity to draft this year's best shortstop in Nick Gordon, which would be an excellent selection, the Twins are never going to be legitimate contenders if they don't build the rotation. With Freeland sitting here at No. 5, they have to take the starter.

 

He has the best slider in the entire draft and his fastball sits 90-93. And though he doesn't play against the toughest competition at Evansville, he has an incredible 128 strikeouts and just 13 walks in 99 ⅔ innings this year."

 

Link to article:

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post?id=9471

 

I tend to agree with Bowden. The Twins need pitching depth more than position players. It would be a nice safe pick to go with Gordon and pitchers bust frequently but without great pitching we won't be an elite team. Maybe Gordon will turn out like Buxton and I will have to eat crow yet again. I just hope we can find elite pitchers and as many as possible until we get dominant rotation.

[twinsfanstreif]

Sort of a sobering read: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1778406-how-tim-beckham-went-from-no-1-overall-pick-to-forgotten-man

 

Beckham is who I see when I look at Gordon, though Gordon has a less developed bat than Beckham had. I didn't like Beckham then and I don't like him now, maybe I just don't trust the "Toolsy" label, it seems like those guys bust more often then not.

[Willihammer]

Sheesh, didn't realize Pentecost had a 36 game hitting streak (still active)

 

http://www.tuscaloosanews.com/article/20140527/NEWS/140529762

 

On the year (58 games) he's batting (.426), hits (100), doubles (21), home runs (eight), walks (23), stolen bases (15) and RBIs (54)

[cmb0252]

Jon heyman on what the Astros might do at #1 and it might surprise you:

 

 

http://mweb.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24575310/astros-may-draft-rodon-or-aiken-no-1-overall-or-pull-surprise-with-gord

[markos]

Beckham is who I see when I look at Gordon, though Gordon has a less developed bat than Beckham had. I didn't like Beckham then and I don't like him now, maybe I just don't trust the "Toolsy" label, it seems like those guys bust more often then not.

 

All the top players have ghosts from past drafts that haunt them.

 

Rodon --> Andrew Miller

Aiken --> Tyler Matzek

Kolek --> Colt Griffin

Gordon --> Tim Beckham

Jackson --> Josh Vitters

 

You don't trust the "Toolsy" label, which is perfectly reasonable. They are risky, as "Toolsy" often means "athletic but not very good at baseball yet". For me, I don't trust HS players who are already relegated to corner outfield positions. That is why Jackson scares me. He is going to need to hit really, really well in order to be valuable at a corner spot. And if he ends up being a butcher in the outfield, that puts even more pressure on his bat.

[maxisagod]

Jon heyman on what the Astros might do at #1 and it might surprise you:

 

 

http://mweb.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24575310/astros-may-draft-rodon-or-aiken-no-1-overall-or-pull-surprise-with-gord

 

We are a week out and I'm surprised the top tier is still in question. A couple weeks back the consensus was this was a 3 player top tier like last year, more are saying 5 or 6. It's hard being behind the Cubs, who might benefit the most by a last minute shake up.

[gunnarthor]

Jon heyman on what the Astros might do at #1 and it might surprise you:

 

 

http://mweb.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24575310/astros-may-draft-rodon-or-aiken-no-1-overall-or-pull-surprise-with-gord

 

Heyman is usually pretty well plugged in - esp w/Boras. And Correa isn't as likely to stick at short as some say. A left side infield of Correa and Gordon would be pretty good defensively and the Astros have a nice core of pitching prospects (Appel, McCullers, Folty to name three). Houston also has 3 picks in the top 42 means they should be trying to spread some of that money around for those other picks.

 

And if that happens, then the draft lines up well for us.

[Dman]

Jon heyman on what the Astros might do at #1 and it might surprise you:

 

 

http://mweb.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24575310/astros-may-draft-rodon-or-aiken-no-1-overall-or-pull-surprise-with-gord

 

Looks like Houston likes how things played out two years ago. Top pick of a position player then go for high risk, high reward pitching later in the draft with extra picks and extra money. Kind of sounds very Twins like. The better safe than sorry approach. There is a lot of solid pitching depth in this draft so that strategy might work quite well this year.

 

If they do take Gordon then I guess I should stop questioning why the Twins would take him. It appears Gordon is the wild card pick in the top 5 now. I guess most teams scouts must believe he will hit in the future or are at least prepared to take that risk vs a pitcher's arm breaking down or not reaching their potential.

 

So if Gordon isn't there at 5 does Jackson or one of the top three pitchers fall to us? Will we go pitcher over Jackson if he is there 5?

[gunnarthor]

Looks like Houston likes how things played out two years ago. Top pick of a position player then go for high risk, high reward pitching later in the draft with extra picks and extra money. Kind of sounds very Twins like. The better safe than sorry approach. There is a lot of solid pitching depth in this draft so that strategy might work quite well this year.

 

If they do take Gordon then I guess I should stop questioning why the Twins would take him. It appears Gordon is the wild card pick in the top 5 now. I guess most teams scouts must believe he will hit in the future or are at least prepared to take that risk vs a pitcher's arm breaking down or not reaching their potential.

 

So if Gordon isn't there at 5 does Jackson or one of the top three pitchers fall to us? Will we go pitcher over Jackson if he is there 5?

 

I think Miami is the big wild card in that scenario - they need hitting badly in their system and Jackson has been linked to them. But Rodon/Aiken would be tough to pass on. I think both Chicago teams will take pitchers, no matter what, so I think Jackson could fall to #5 but I'm also not sure the Twins would take him if he did - they haven't been linked to him, he's a Boras guy and the Twins could still grab a guy like Nola in that scenario. I think they'd jump on any of the three pitchers if they were there.

[Dman]

I think Miami is the big wild card in that scenario - they need hitting badly in their system and Jackson has been linked to them. But Rodon/Aiken would be tough to pass on. I think both Chicago teams will take pitchers, no matter what, so I think Jackson could fall to #5 but I'm also not sure the Twins would take him if he did - they haven't been linked to him, he's a Boras guy and the Twins could still grab a guy like Nola in that scenario. I think they'd jump on any of the three pitchers if they were there.

 

OK so if Gordon and Jackson are gone what pitcher would likely fall to us? Kolek or Rodon or Aiken?

[markos]

OK so if Gordon and Jackson are gone what pitcher would likely fall to us? Kolek or Rodon or Aiken?

 

There has been some buzz that teams are talking themselves out of Kolek. My guess is that he is the one that would be available.

[twinsfanstreif]

OK so if Gordon and Jackson are gone what pitcher would likely fall to us? Kolek or Rodon or Aiken?

 

I would have to assume Kolek unless teams think Rodon will be too expensive, in that case we probably pass on Rodon too because we hate dealing with expensive Boras guys. Rodon could easily pull an Appel if he isn't taken top 3.

[Dman]

There has been some buzz that teams are talking themselves out of Kolek. My guess is that he is the one that would be available.

 

Yeah that was my thinking as well. He throws hard but will his arm hold up and can he develop quality secondary pitches? There's a lot of questions there. The upside is also high though as not many pitchers can throw that hard. It would be a gamble to take him for sure.

[Dman]

I would have to assume Kolek unless teams think Rodon will be too expensive, in that case we probably pass on Rodon too because we hate dealing with expensive Boras guys. Rodon could easily pull an Appel if he isn't taken top 3.

 

I hadn't thought about that but you might be right. Could be a dangerous pick if he won't sign.

[Willihammer]

I'd love to see Gordon or Nola gone before 5, so the Twins can choose between Jackson or Kolek. I'd be thrilled with either one.

[tobi0040]

I hadn't thought about that but you might be right. Could be a dangerous pick if he won't sign.

 

It should not be as big of a risk if he goes #5. Appel slipped to #8 and his parents had a lot of money.

[twinsfanstreif]

It should not be as big of a risk if he goes #5. Appel slipped to #8 and his parents had a lot of money.

 

The difference between #5 and #8 is $660,000, the difference between #3 and #5 is almost $2 million and $2 million more for #1 overall, if he believes he can go back to college and dominate, that could be the difference of $4 million and Boras would potentially advise that. I don't know Rodon's family situation or anything but it's not impossible that he could balk at #5

[tobi0040]

The difference between #5 and #8 is $660,000, the difference between #3 and #5 is almost $2 million and $2 million more for #1 overall, if he believes he can go back to college and dominate, that could be the difference of $4 million and Boras would potentially advise that. I don't know Rodon's family situation or anything but it's not impossible that he could balk at #5

 

However, Appel didn't sign for slot. He signed for $1.45M less than slot ($6.35M versus $7.8M slot).

 

The Pirates offered Appel above slot money at #8, which was $3.8M ($900K or so above slot value) and my guess is anyone at #4 or #5 would offer slot or as much over slot as they could without getting a penalty. So the difference between $6.35M and #4 slot plus extra ($4.6M plus) or #5 slot plus extra ($3.85 plus) is not that much money.

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Rodon could easily pull an Appel if he isn't taken top 3.

 

It will be interesting to see if Boras plays that game again. He already got lucky once with Appel who turned down $3.8 million from the Pirates and ended up with $6.35 million from the Astros. A very good result but the it remains an open question whether the risk was appropriate.

 

Given what the draft experts expect to happen with Hoffman, the likely signing bonus floor for Appel was probably in the $1.5 to $1.8 million dollar range even if had he blown out his elbow after returning to Stanford (can the same be said if a labrum is involved - I have doubts). So, the risk in turning down $3.8 million from the Pirates was roughly $2 to $2.3 million. Although he ultimately increased his bonus by $2.55 million, his maximum possible return on his gambit was $3.99 million (the full slot bonus number of the Astros' 2013 No. 1 pick--admittedly ignoring the idea that a team can pay over slot). So he risked losing as much as $2.3 million for a chance at earning as much as $4 million more than offered.

 

I don't know anything about Appel's family but, unless his parents are legitimately wealthy, it did not seem (to me) appropriate for Boras to advise a young pitcher to take that type of risk (given those pesky UCLs and labrums they rely on). Everyone has their own risk tolerance but I think we all can agree that the $2 million dollars between $1.8 and $3.8 million dollars has a MUCH bigger impact on a person's lifestyle and financial security than the $2.5 million between $3.8 and $6.3 million. On a bigger scale, its the difference between Scherzer turning down the big offer and Trout accepting it. Scherzer has already made $30 million (forever money for the reasonably sane) while Trout had barely made $1 million. Happily, Appel won't spend his lifetime ruminating about his choice because it worked out and he stayed healthy AND productive.

 

Bringing the conversation back to Rodon, his analysis must also include the fact that the NC State coaching staff has demonstrated that it will use Rodon until he is used up if they perceive the need for a couple more ACC victories. If he elects not to sign, I believe he would be better off sitting out the year or playing independent baseball rather than putting his future back in their hands.

 

All that said, sign a deal Rodon. Let Boras show everyone he knows best with guys like Drew and Morales who have already pocketed $10 million plus.

[tobi0040]

 

 

I agree 100%. You have to question whether the agent has the best interest of the client in this case. Even in the case of Max Scherzer. It may make sense for Boras to bring every client to free agency, or players like Appel back to college. He is going to win a majority of those and spread accross his 100's of clients, he wins more than he loses. But if you are Max Scherzer, Mark Appel, or Rodon, you are not benefitting from the players that win. Appel was ultimately a test for Boras and it now gives him another card to play in the future.

 

I am sure if Rodon falls Boras wiill play the college card, but if we are talking about a difference of $1-$1.5M, most players will sign. If he doesn't, we get the 6th pick next year.