2014 MLB Draft Thread

[Brock Beauchamp]

True, but you don't see young, good SS being shipped off in these deals. Profar for example was un-touchable to the point it was ridiculous. Terry Ryan even said they had to target a pitcher in low A because teams don't trade SP's in the MLB or close to.

 

I think you do have to balance BPA with the supply available. Either way, the good news is this draft appears heavy at SP and SS, so we may be able to do both.

 

That's why patience is a virtue when trading, something I commend Ryan for having in spades. It's the key trait that Bill Smith completely lacked when moving MLB assets.

 

If the deal isn't there, wait it out. Someone will become available at some point.

[maxisagod]

Not to be out done by Kiley McDaniel, Mr.Law over at ESPN released his own tiers of the first round prospects today. Let me tell you, while a lot of the names are the same they are not in the same order. McDaniel had 5 tiers Mr.Law leaves it at 4 saying that tier 5 would be too big. (Also, this is insider so I will only post the first two tiers. If you want to know where a specific player lands just ask)....

 

Okay, let get this thread back on track. So, cmb2052 where does he have Turner?

[tobi0040]

Jason Bartlett says hi. Bad example, but teams do trade shortstops.

 

I should have added an asterisk. *trades made by Bill Smith do not count. The guy gave up a good SP and a good SS, the two hardest positions to fill.

[cmb0252]

Okay, let get this thread back on track. So, cmb2052 where does he have Turner?

 

Turner was in tier 3 but he notes that he could be the first position player taken because of his bankable speed. He worries about Turners power and unorthodox swing. He notes that Kennesaw State's Max Pentecost might be the best college position player because he is a true catcher with ability at the plate.

[gunnarthor]

I should have added an asterisk. *trades made by Bill Smith do not count. The guy gave up a good SP and a good SS, the two hardest positions to fill.

 

Just last year the Diamondbacks traded Bauer, who looks likely to bust, for a pretty decent shortstop prospect. Andrus was part of the Teixeira deal a few years back. The Red Sox traded away Hanley Ramirez (and Anibal Sanchez) for Beckett. The Twins could move Sano for most any shortstop in the minors if they wanted to.

[Mike Sixel]

Just last year the Diamondbacks traded Bauer, who looks likely to bust, for a pretty decent shortstop prospect. Andrus was part of the Teixeira deal a few years back. The Red Sox traded away Hanley Ramirez (and Anibal Sanchez) for Beckett. The Twins could move Sano for most any shortstop in the minors if they wanted to.

 

Just another reason trading prospects is sometimes a good idea, no matter how good they look....though if Bauer can get his head on straight, he'll be what we think Gibson could be. But he can't stop trying to tweak things.....like a hack golfer.

[Mike Sixel]

That's why patience is a virtue when trading, something I commend Ryan for having in spades. It's the key trait that Bill Smith completely lacked when moving MLB assets.

 

If the deal isn't there, wait it out. Someone will become available at some point.

 

That was not true in his first stint. Other than Kielty, he didn't wait teams out, he didn't trade for proven players that were really good.....and we still haven't seen that part change.

 

He is trading vets for prospects, still, and signing better pitchers, but (and this is timing of the rebuild probably) we have not seen him trade a prospect for a proven player yet.

[Brock Beauchamp]

That was not true in his first stint. Other than Kielty, he didn't wait teams out, he didn't trade for proven players that were really good.....and we still haven't seen that part change.

 

He is trading vets for prospects, still, and signing better pitchers, but (and this is timing of the rebuild probably) we have not seen him trade a prospect for a proven player yet.

 

If you follow my chain of posts, I never talked about trading for MLB players, I was only talking about the inverse; moving established MLB talent for prospects.

 

But yeah, Ryan doesn't really trade prospects for MLB talent often.

[Mike Sixel]

ah, misunderstood, sorry.

[gunnarthor]

That was not true in his first stint. Other than Kielty, he didn't wait teams out, he didn't trade for proven players that were really good.....and we still haven't seen that part change.

 

He is trading vets for prospects, still, and signing better pitchers, but (and this is timing of the rebuild probably) we have not seen him trade a prospect for a proven player yet.

 

He also added Luis Castillo for a couple prospects. I'm not as concerned about this as you are. Trading prospects while rebuilding is dicey. Not saying it shouldn't be done but it has to be a pretty good deal. And teams that are trading for prospects (and supplying vets in return) are usually other bad teams that are rebuilding, so there isn't always a good fit. A contending team usually isn't going to give up a good ML player for a prospect while they think they can that ML player can help them now (see Texas last year).

[Mike Sixel]

Houston has a catcher that would be a good fit......imo. But ya, I think this is a timing issue. And catchers get hurt....

[tobi0040]

Just last year the Diamondbacks traded Bauer, who looks likely to bust, for a pretty decent shortstop prospect. Andrus was part of the Teixeira deal a few years back. The Red Sox traded away Hanley Ramirez (and Anibal Sanchez) for Beckett. The Twins could move Sano for most any shortstop in the minors if they wanted to.

 

The fact that it has happened before, does not mean they happen a lot. You have cited some pretty extreme cases.

 

In the case of the Teixera and Beckett deal, you are talking about franchise caliber players. The Red Sox have at least one fewer WS without Beckett and Lowell. Teixera would be like moving Mauer or Morneau in 2007. Sano is one of the best 10-15 prospects probably in the last 10 years.

[gunnarthor]

The fact that it has happened before, does not mean they happen a lot. You have cited some pretty extreme cases.

 

I guess I'm not sure what you're getting at. If you want to have talent to trade for talent, you draft the BPA and then you can move him for the shortstop you don't have - like the Twins added three pitchers for Span and Revere. If Jackson turns out to be the BPA at #5 then the Twins should take him and, if he's blocked by Hicks, Buxton, Arcia, Kepler, Walker or whomever, they can make a trade.

 

Shortstop prospects are traded all the time. Elite shortstop prospects are rarer trades but that's true because they are elite, not b/c they are shortstops (now, being a shortstop might make a player better in people's eyes simply based on positional scarcity and such - like the Gigi/Bauer trade). If the Twins continue to stockpile talent in the farm system they can make moves to fix areas they are deficient in, if needed.

[bird]

That's why patience is a virtue when trading, something I commend Ryan for having in spades. It's the key trait that Bill Smith completely lacked when moving MLB assets.

 

If the deal isn't there, wait it out. Someone will become available at some point.

 

There are a half dozen ne shortstops with star ceilings just entering the league and replacing, in most cases guys who are an upgrade to Florimon. Trade opportunities are likely to improve, perhaps starting at this year's trade deadline.

[John Bonnes]

Turner was in tier 3 but he notes that he could be the first position player taken because of his bankable speed. He worries about Turners power and unorthodox swing. He notes that Kennesaw State's Max Pentecost might be the best college position player because he is a true catcher with ability at the plate.

 

Well, I'm glad to see that at this point, there aren't a Big 4 that the Twins are just going to miss out on. (Though there is plenty of time for that yet, of course.)

 

I guess I'm not picky. I'm not opposed to an outfielder if he's clearly better than the other options, but if it's close, a SS or C sure sounds tasty. A college pitcher might serve as a nice bridge to some of the low minor arms we have coming.

 

It feels like Day 1 is going to be a good day.

[cmb0252]

Christopher Crawford released an ESPN insider article called Five biggest draft storylines. Here are his 5:

 

1.Just how good is Carlos Rodon?

Is he a better prospect than Strasburg?

 

2. Who's number 3?

Rodon and Hoffman are considered by most the top two prospects in the draft but who is number 3? Kolek? Jackson? Gatewood?

 

3. Where are the college bats?

With more and more elite bats signing out of high school will there ever be a strong college position player draft? He suggests teams might reach and mentions the Twins might go for Turner.

 

4. Which prep pitcher might step up?

From a scout:

"It's a deep group," an NL East scout said. "You've got guys like Tyler Kolek, who have the imposing size and fastball, but you wonder about the projection and if the secondary offerings are good enough to make him a legit ace. Then you look at a guy like Grant Holmes [Conway, S.C.] who might be the most advanced-arm in the class with three plus pitches, but doesn't have that knockout tool.

 

"And then there's the lefties like Justus Sheffield [Tullahoma, Tenn.] and Brady Aiken[san Diego, Calif.] who don't have the stuff of the guys we just talked about, but could be better prospects just because of their feel for pitching and quality secondary stuff."

 

5. How good is the state of Florida?

Names several players who are potential top 25 draft prospects including Nick Gordon and Forrest Wall. Two guys BA had this article about 2 days ago:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/prime-prospect-pair-forrest-wall-vs-nick-gordon/

For Crawford's full insider article here is the link:

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1269

 

[Mike Sixel]

That Crawford article was good. Definitely worth subscribing, imo.

[nicksaviking]

Turner was in tier 3 but he notes that he could be the first position player taken because of his bankable speed. He worries about Turners power and unorthodox swing. He notes that Kennesaw State's Max Pentecost might be the best college position player because he is a true catcher with ability at the plate.

 

No thanks on Pentecost. If your picking a bat at #5, I want the best offensive player period. I don't want a qualifying addendum, i.e. "this guy is a really good hitter considering he's a catcher."

[cmb0252]

That Crawford article was good. Definitely worth subscribing, imo.

 

I'm a huge fan of Crawford. I just wish he would write more articles like this for his own site mlbdraftinsider.com.

[cmb0252]

No thanks on Pentecost. If your picking a bat at #5, I want the best offensive player period. I don't want a qualifying addendum, i.e. "this guy is a really good hitter considering he's a catcher."

 

I tend to agree with you on Pentecost. While I'm definitely a fan of his I believe a top 5 pick NEEDS to have at least one elite tool IMO.

[howieramone1406390264]

Christopher Crawford released an ESPN insider article called Five biggest draft storylines. Here are his 5:

 

1.Just how good is Carlos Rodon?

Is he a better prospect than Strasburg?

 

2. Who's number 3?

Rodon and Hoffman are considered by most the top two prospects in the draft but who is number 3? Kolek? Jackson? Gatewood?

 

3. Where are the college bats?

With more and more elite bats signing out of high school will there ever be a strong college position player draft? He suggests teams might reach and mentions the Twins might go for Turner.

 

4. Which prep pitcher might step up?

From a scout:

"It's a deep group," an NL East scout said. "You've got guys like Tyler Kolek, who have the imposing size and fastball, but you wonder about the projection and if the secondary offerings are good enough to make him a legit ace. Then you look at a guy like Grant Holmes [Conway, S.C.] who might be the most advanced-arm in the class with three plus pitches, but doesn't have that knockout tool.

 

"And then there's the lefties like Justus Sheffield [Tullahoma, Tenn.] and Brady Aiken[san Diego, Calif.] who don't have the stuff of the guys we just talked about, but could be better prospects just because of their feel for pitching and quality secondary stuff."

 

5. How good is the state of Florida?

Names several players who are potential top 25 draft prospects including Nick Gordon and Forrest Wall. Two guys BA had this article about 2 days ago:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/prime-prospect-pair-forrest-wall-vs-nick-gordon/

For Crawford's full insider article here is the link:

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1269

 

 

The first time I've heard the Twins linked to Turner. We know the Twins won't reach, but I hope they are watching him as closely as they watched Stewart.

[diehardtwinsfan]

No thanks on Pentecost. If your picking a bat at #5, I want the best offensive player period. I don't want a qualifying addendum, i.e. "this guy is a really good hitter considering he's a catcher."

 

 

I see your point, but I don't think this works well every time. The best available 1B bat may be better than the best available SS bat, but it's quite possible that the SS/CF is the better player because of their defensive value. I'm still leaning towards upside that high in the draft. I doubt there will be 5 stud college guys that will be sure things at their positions (hopefully of need), so when the Twins pick at 5, I'd grab for ceiling... For me right now, that's Kolek or Gatewood.

 

All could easily change. I see the turner love, but I just don't see grabbing a guy who might be the next Elvis Andrus at 5 overall. Andrus is a good player, but not exactly the type of guy I'd target that high in the draft. There are better ceilings out there at that point, and if org need is the primary consideration, then I'd rather go with Gatewood.

[cmb0252]

Keith Law was at East Carolina's game last night to see Hoffman and here is what he saw:

 

"Hoffman came out throwing gas, 94-96 mph in the first inning and holding 96 for several innings, eventually slipping to more 92-94 by the sixth and seventh. The pitch is straight, however, and Virginia hitters were on it all game -- a few cheated to get around on the pitch, but most of their hitters were at least able to make solid contact to foul it off even if they couldn't pull it. His changeup was an above-average offering on Friday, mostly 85-to-88 with one at 90 in the first inning, some too firm, others with that string-pulling illusion that you associate with a good straight change. He showed confidence in the pitch, doubling up on it and throwing it to right-handed hitters. His curveball was fringy, 77-80 mph early and 73-74 mph by the end of his outing, with spike-like break when he finished it -- maybe one of every four curveballs he threw -- with little feel for where it was going."

 

He goes on to mention that if his command doesn't pick up several college arms could pass him. He also mentions a few other players in the insider article:

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1279

[Lonestar]

Then you look at a guy like Grant Holmes [Conway, S.C.] who might be the most advanced-arm in the class with three plus pitches, but doesn't have that knockout tool.

How can you have three plus pitches but not a knockout tool?

[cmb0252]

How can you have three plus pitches but not a knockout tool?

 

He has three pitches that are 60 to 65 but no 70+ pitch. No "out" pitch. Most aces have at least one 70 pitch and many have 2.

[cmb0252]

Here is BaseballAmericas game report on Rodon from last night:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/game-report-carlos-rodon-improves-but-not-as-much-as-hed-like/

[Kwak]

Here is BaseballAmericas game report on Rodon from last night:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/game-report-carlos-rodon-improves-but-not-as-much-as-hed-like/

 

 

Reading a bit closer and we find that a Trea Turner error led to the first two runs. Three runs were scored with the help of a second Err by 3B shortly followed by a hung-slider--3-run HR. I'm guessing that his change-up isn't "plus" because Rodon did confess to being "slider-happy". But, he will have been selected by the time the Twins select so ....

[Oxtung]

Just last year the Diamondbacks traded Bauer, who looks likely to bust, for a pretty decent shortstop prospect. Andrus was part of the Teixeira deal a few years back. The Red Sox traded away Hanley Ramirez (and Anibal Sanchez) for Beckett. The Twins could move Sano for most any shortstop in the minors if they wanted to.

 

I think you're using hindsight here. At the time of the Bauer/Gregorious trade Bauer was still a top 100 prospect that had Ace stuff. There was questions about him but he was still very highly thought of.

 

In order to pry Andrus (and others but Andrus was the keystone of the trade) away from Atlanta Texas had to give up one of the top first basemen in the majors with a year and a half of control still remaining as well as a very good reliever in Mahay.

 

Josh Beckett, while he never developed into it, was a potential #1/2 starter. Just a couple years before the trade he was considered the top prospect in baseball. At the time of the trade he was about to hit his prime at 25yo. In addition at the time of the trade Hanley Ramirez was coming off a very bad year at AA and had some legitimate questions surrounding him.

 

So what I see is Ramirez and Gregorious were both moved for big upside pitchers with Ace potential. Andrus was moved for one of the top 1B in the game.

[gunnarthor]

I think you're using hindsight here. At the time of the Bauer/Gregorious trade Bauer was still a top 100 prospect that had Ace stuff. There was questions about him but he was still very highly thought of.

 

In order to pry Andrus (and others but Andrus was the keystone of the trade) away from Atlanta Texas had to give up one of the top first basemen in the majors with a year and a half of control still remaining as well as a very good reliever in Mahay.

 

Josh Beckett, while he never developed into it, was a potential #1/2 starter. Just a couple years before the trade he was considered the top prospect in baseball. At the time of the trade he was about to hit his prime at 25yo. In addition at the time of the trade Hanley Ramirez was coming off a very bad year at AA and had some legitimate questions surrounding him.

 

So what I see is Ramirez and Gregorious were both moved for big upside pitchers with Ace potential. Andrus was moved for one of the top 1B in the game.

 

But the original point was that good shortstops weren't available in a trade and I was just pointing out that they were. (And Bauer already had substantial doubters - esp in his own org - at the time of the trade). So it still makes sense to take BPA and trade for a position of weakness rather than take a lesser player for your teams needs now.

[nicksaviking]

I see your point, but I don't think this works well every time. The best available 1B bat may be better than the best available SS bat, but it's quite possible that the SS/CF is the better player because of their defensive value. I'm still leaning towards upside that high in the draft. I doubt there will be 5 stud college guys that will be sure things at their positions (hopefully of need), so when the Twins pick at 5, I'd grab for ceiling... For me right now, that's Kolek or Gatewood.

 

All could easily change. I see the turner love, but I just don't see grabbing a guy who might be the next Elvis Andrus at 5 overall. Andrus is a good player, but not exactly the type of guy I'd target that high in the draft. There are better ceilings out there at that point, and if org need is the primary consideration, then I'd rather go with Gatewood.

 

I don't think we're really in disagreement, I want the top ceiling guy, but if we're talking about BPA regardless of organizational position depth, I think that should mean go after the best hitter. Rarely can anyone guarantee a hitter will hold his position at the MLB level. I've been making the Andrus and his low ceiling comp for awhile. If his defensive or speed tool had never developed he would have flopped.

 

Get the guy with the most tools, but weigh the ones associated with the bat more strongly. I actually am more ambivalent about defensive position, I know it's not popular, but I'd rather have the best hitter than I'd rather have a "pretty good hitter for position x"