2014 MLB Draft Thread

[Mike Sixel]

I love how all the guys that have seen Gordon play are saying he'll stay at SS.....I would put faith in that unanimous opinion over fears he might grow.

[cmb0252]

I love how all the guys that have seen Gordon play are saying he'll stay at SS.....I would put faith in that unanimous opinion over fears he might grow.

 

I agree with you. No one is saying he won't be a SS going forward which is rare. Also, while his hit/power tools have lagged behind Nick isn't his brother Dee. He is 3 inches taller and definitely has some room to add more muscle to his frame.

[tobi0040]

I agree with you. No one is saying he won't be a SS going forward which is rare. Also, while his hit/power tools have lagged behind Nick isn't his brother Dee. He is 3 inches taller and definitely has some room to add more muscle to his frame.

 

Let's distinguish something here. A scout saying he can stick at SS and him actually sticking at SS in the Twins system are two different things. Here is a quick list of players we have drafted or signed as a SS, that were either moved somewhere else or we at least doubt can stick there:

 

Sano (high profile international signing), Dozier, Polanco, Goodrum, Plouffe (1st round pick), Levi Michael (1st round pick), Michael Cuddyer (1st round pick). I am probably forgetting one or two.

 

So we have a history here.

[Mike Sixel]

Every team drafts SS and moves them. SS are usually super athletic guys that can move around to other positions, but are better athletes than their peers, so they play SS in college and HS. There is nothing unique about the Twins here at all.

[maxisagod]

Let's distinguish something here. A scout saying he can stick at SS and him actually sticking at SS in the Twins system are two different things. Here is a quick list of players we have drafted or signed as a SS, that were either moved somewhere else or we at least doubt can stick there:

 

Sano (high profile international signing), Dozier, Polanco, Goodrum, Plouffe (1st round pick), Levi Michael (1st round pick), Michael Cuddyer (1st round pick). I am probably forgetting one or two.

 

So we have a history here.

 

Going with outside reports:

Sano: Every scout said he would move off to 3rd or Right field.

Dozier: Most said he would stick, a few thought he'd move to 2nd or 3rd.

Polanco: When signed everyone said he'd stick, grew a lot, last year people had doubts.

Michaels: it was 50/50. He had only play short for a year, going back to 3rd or 2nd seemed possible.

Cuddyer: I Don't remember off the top of my head, really only start following prospects when he was already a outfielder in AAA.

 

The point is, it really good sign when every independent scout thinks he sticks, not just some.

[maxisagod]

Some thought Goodrum would move to the outfield if he outgrew short. Plouffe I can't recall anyone saying he wouldn't stick, and to his credit he played 3 years of AAA short, just too many miscues and throwing errors (kinda like the reports we get about Santana right now).

[tobi0040]

Going with outside reports:

Sano: Every scout said he would move off to 3rd or Right field.

Dozier: Most said he would stick, a few thought he'd move to 2nd or 3rd.

Polanco: When signed everyone said he'd stick, grew a lot, last year people had doubts.

Michaels: it was 50/50. He had only play short for a year, going back to 3rd or 2nd seemed possible.

Cuddyer: I Don't remember off the top of my head, really only start following prospects when he was already a outfielder in AAA.

 

The point is, it really good sign when every independent scout thinks he sticks, not just some.

 

So Michael was 50/50 and he moved. Most said Dozier would stick and he moved. And everyone said Polanco would stick and he is likely moving. So we are at a minimum 0-3 and Polanco was supposed to be a defensive whiz who would not hit. You didn't mention Goodrum or Plouffe either.

 

So for me, you have to consider the fact that with the 5th pick, a good chance exists that Gordon moves off of SS, in which case his value plummets quite a bit. A guy whose hit tool is 45/50 at #5 overall makes me think someone with more upside like a Toussant or Jackson makes more sense. Jackson is not a SS, but he is not a 45/50 either.

[gunnarthor]

Every team drafts SS and moves them. SS are usually super athletic guys that can move around to other positions, but are better athletes than their peers, so they play SS in college and HS. There is nothing unique about the Twins here at all.

 

Yep, absolutely correct. I'm not sold on Gordon but I'm not concerned about whether he sticks at short. I think I'd still rather add an arm or Jackson but it's looking less likely.

[Mike Sixel]

tobi, would you ever sign or draft a SS? It seems not, not an elite one, because the elite ones go super early.

[twinsin17]

In response to the draft order, I am thinking we end up 8-12th in the next draft, which is not supposed to be as talented.

 

The 2014 draft is exceptionally deep with pitching prospects (namely HS) but is considered weak with HS bats and middle infield help at both levels. I have also read that the top 3 picks in 2013 would also be the top 3 in 2014, although Rodon may care to disagree, especially if he was draft eligible at the end of 2013. The 2015 draft (although extremely early) is top heavy with high end HS hitters, namely middle infielders and CF. Maybe the 2015 draft is not as deep as this year's but the high level talent could be better. If we are picking 8-12 I am sure we would get another strong prospect.

[cmb0252]

So Michael was 50/50 and he moved. Most said Dozier would stick and he moved. And everyone said Polanco would stick and he is likely moving. So we are at a minimum 0-3 and Polanco was supposed to be a defensive whiz who would not hit. You didn't mention Goodrum or Plouffe either.

 

So for me, you have to consider the fact that with the 5th pick, a good chance exists that Gordon moves off of SS, in which case his value plummets quite a bit. A guy whose hit tool is 45/50 at #5 overall makes me think someone with more upside like a Toussant or Jackson makes more sense. Jackson is not a SS, but he is not a 45/50 either.

 

If you flip a coin three times and it lands on heads all three times it doesn't mean it will always land on heads. Gordon isn't the same caliber prospect as Dozier/Levi/Polanco. If the Twins draft Gordon he would easily be the best SS prospect we have drafted in 10, maybe 15 years. Instead of comparing him to other Twins prospects, which none are ideal matches, we should look at players who resemble his game better.

[golfboy1]

Let's distinguish something here. A scout saying he can stick at SS and him actually sticking at SS in the Twins system are two different things. Here is a quick list of players we have drafted or signed as a SS, that were either moved somewhere else or we at least doubt can stick there:

 

Sano (high profile international signing), Dozier, Polanco, Goodrum, Plouffe (1st round pick), Levi Michael (1st round pick), Michael Cuddyer (1st round pick). I am probably forgetting one or two.

 

So we have a history here.

 

Every team has this history. Players who are really good often play SS growing up. Justin Upton, Adam Jones & Mike Moustakas were all drafted in the 1st rnd as SS but I don't think anyone thought they would play in the ML at that position.

 

Sano & Cuddyer were never thought of as SS. Several of the others were given a chance until they played themselves off the position. That's the norm in ML baseball, it's not just a Twins thing. Billy Hamilton played SS until last year & then moved to CF. There is a real good chance Javier Baez will move off SS in the future.

 

From all I've read or heard, Gordon has the defensive ability to stay at SS. It's a matter of how well his bat develops to warrant a high pick on him.

[cmb0252]

Crawford's new draft board :

 

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/05/the-board-volume-v/

[kab21]

If he was viewed as a guy that could have a .790 OPS and even have average defense, he would be off the board at #5. I have seen a 45 and 50 for hit tool, so that doesn't scream .790 OPS to me.

 

The other issue I see is he is 6'1 and 170 pounds in high school. Our organization has a very, very high threshold for short stops defensively and we have umpeen 2B prospects that we drafted or signed as SS, not to mention a guy that may be there for awhile. What are the odds this guy grows off the position and/or can't meet our requirements if he is between 6'1 and 6'3 and weights 190+ pounds? If he grows off SS and is a 45/50 hitter, he is a marginal MLB player at best.

 

The reason that he will be there is that there are 3 guys in front of him that have ace pitcher upside. He also has higher risk which is why I'm still leary of him but when the alternatives are #3 pitchers (Aaron Nola gets a Mike Leake comp - good ERA and 6K/9) then he's in consideration.

 

I also have no idea what you have been reading but there are no doubts that he can stick at SS. A lot of the guys you have listed had doubts in the draft.

[kab21]

That is one of the reasons why I have him ahead of Jackson. Just out of curiosity, how would you fill in the same sentence about Jackson?

"I still need to be reassured that Jackson can be a X/Y/Z/(Y+Z) hitter with ?? defense at (LF? RF? C?)."

 

I need to be reassured that Jackson is a legitimate bat only prospect that might stick (very little additional draft value) at C or 3B. Gordon is significantly more raw as a hitter but Jackson needs to show that his bat is fairly polished and the only question is whether or not he hits his upside (.850-.900 OPS).

 

I'm not convinced that Jackson can become a regular all-star because the competition level is too high. If Gordon hits then he could be a perennial all-star.

 

Holmes is the guy that most intrigues me right now outside of the top 3 and the 2 HS hitters. I'm not completely sure what to think of him yet.

[tobi0040]

Yep, absolutely correct. I'm not sold on Gordon but I'm not concerned about whether he sticks at short. I think I'd still rather add an arm or Jackson but it's looking less likely.

 

I guess I don't understand how what position he plays is not at least a factor in drafting him. A 45/50 hit tool is a decent SS, but not a good corner OF, DH, 1B, or 3B. Not mention we have 4-6 prospects at 2B, a pretty good 3B coming up, etc.

[tobi0040]

Every team has this history. Players who are really good often play SS growing up. Justin Upton, Adam Jones & Mike Moustakas were all drafted in the 1st rnd as SS but I don't think anyone thought they would play in the ML at that position.

 

Sano & Cuddyer were never thought of as SS. Several of the others were given a chance until they played themselves off the position. That's the norm in ML baseball, it's not just a Twins thing. Billy Hamilton played SS until last year & then moved to CF. There is a real good chance Javier Baez will move off SS in the future.

 

From all I've read or heard, Gordon has the defensive ability to stay at SS. It's a matter of how well his bat develops to warrant a high pick on him.

 

Lets discuss the "every team has a history". Am I crazy to think the Twins value defense at the SS position more than other teams and that the bar to stick at SS is higher here? Would every other franchise put up with Florimon for a full season (he has 600 AB's). How about Lexi Casilla at 2B, he had 1,700 at bats here. Nick Punto, etc.

 

We have used two first round picks since 2004 on SS and moved them, Goodrum was a second rounder. Arguably two of our top three international signings have been short stops that have been moved. Does every team have this track record? I think given our history, which is unusual, we should do a little more research as to whether a guy will stay at SS. That is all.

 

Regarding the comps. I am guessing upton, jones, and moustakis were not a 45 rated hitter. The difference is thise guys can hit and be above average at other positions. It is not clear gordon does

[Willihammer]

Let me get this right. Scouts expect Gordon's hit and power to come along as he fills into his frame... but there's absolutely no risk he outgrows shortstop?

[kab21]

Let me get this right. Scouts expect Gordon's hit and power to come along as he fills into his frame... but there's absolutely no risk he outgrows shortstop?

 

He will fill out a little but I don't think anyone expects him to be (close to) 200 lbs. He should easily be mobile enough to play SS. He should easily have enough arm. I guess there is a chance that he could freak out like Casilla anytime he has to make a routine play but he's a near lock to stay at SS.

[tobi0040]

He will fill out a little but I don't think anyone expects him to be (close to) 200 lbs. He should easily be mobile enough to play SS. He should easily have enough arm. I guess there is a chance that he could freak out like Casilla anytime he has to make a routine play but he's a near lock to stay at SS.

 

Near lock may be rich. I am guessing polanco was a near lock as well. He went from defensive whiz, rated our best defensive infielder before playing a game according to baseball america, to no chance of sticking at ss in avery quick timeframe

 

Among the guys likely to be there, i like touki or jackson

 

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/243693621.html

[cmb0252]

Near lock may be rich. I am guessing polanco was a near lock as well. He went from defensive whiz, rated our best defensive infielder before playing a game according to baseball america, to no chance of sticking at ss in avery quick timeframe

 

Among the guys likely to be there, i like touki or jackson

 

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/243693621.html

 

I have no problem preferring Jackson or a different prospect to Gordon. Part of the fun of following the draft is debating whom the Twins should draft. The problem I have is you are inaccurately depicting Gordon's defensive prospect level by comparing him to other past Twins prospects.

 

When evaluating SS defense you have to look at several things. Arm strength, hands, size, instincts, range, and lateral movement.

 

Polanco signed for $750k (not bad but not elite for an international prospect) at age 16. The article you linked suggested Polanco most likely will have to move off SS because "his lack of size and arm strength." Gordon has a 70 grade arm and is 6'1 with a solid family blood line that suggests he will be the ideal SS size.

 

Levi Michael was a the 30th overall pick in the 2011 signed out of North Carolina. Here is what mlb.com had to say about his defense: "When he's healthy, he's got above-average speed and will steal a base. An ankle injury has slowed him somewhat this season on both sides of the ball. Even before that, some scouts felt his range was too limited to be an everyday shortstop as a professional. His average arm is playable there but might be a bit short to profile there all the time. As a result, most see him as a second baseman -- his hands work just fine." Gordon is 3+ inches taller than Michael, has a stronger arm, and has better range.

 

As for Dozier, I personal don't remember his scouting report but he was a 8th round picking coming out of college. While he is currently preforming well in the bigs you can't compare an 8th round pick to a potential top 5 pick prospect wise.

 

Instead of comparing him to past Twins prospects we should look at his skills. Here is BA's take: "The game comes easy to Gordon, who is a confident, instinctive player. He has lateral range to both sides and natural, fluid actions, with soft hands to go with a plus arm that is the arguably the best infield arm in the high school class." Gordon has everything you are looking for defensively for a SS which is more then I can say for past Twins SS prospects.

 

[twinsin17]

I'd be bummed if Gordon goes before 5. I want the Twins to at least have the choice of picking him.

[markos]

So for me, you have to consider the fact that with the 5th pick, a good chance exists that Gordon moves off of SS, in which case his value plummets quite a bit. A guy whose hit tool is 45/50 at #5 overall makes me think someone with more upside like a Toussant or Jackson makes more sense. Jackson is not a SS, but he is not a 45/50 either.

 

It is fascinating to me that we have such completely opposite viewpoints on the top two high school players. Jackson is the player that scares me. All of his value it tied to his bat, and as a corner outfielder, he is really going to need to hit in order to be valuable. Maybe he will become the next Matt Holliday and be a great hitter, but if he misses his projection just a little bit - say he struggles with breaking balls, or doesn't quite draw enough walks, or his power doesn't quite develop - then he is just a good hitter. If he misses by more than a little bit, then he is just an average hitter. An average-to-good hitter at a corner position is not terribly valuable. By no means not a zero, but not the type of player that will carry a team to the next level. Throw in the fact that he probably won't add a ton of value fielding (hopefully he is at least an average defender out there), and I am very, very concerned that he will struggle to be a league-average player.

[gunnarthor]

Near lock may be rich. I am guessing polanco was a near lock as well. He went from defensive whiz, rated our best defensive infielder before playing a game according to baseball america, to no chance of sticking at ss in avery quick timeframe

 

Among the guys likely to be there, i like touki or jackson

 

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/243693621.html

 

I think Toussaint could be a really intriguing and brave pick. mlbpipeline ranked him #16 but likes his upside - he could have two plus pitches. "Toussaint, who spent most of the first six years of his life in Haiti, has one of the quickest and loosest arms in the 2014 high school class. He's still learning to control his pitches but could have a pair of well above-average offerings once he does.

Toussaint usually operates at 91-93 mph with his fastball and has shown the ability to reach 97. His mid-70s curveball has so much downward break that his catchers have trouble holding onto it. He also shows the willingness to use a changeup, though he currently throws his too hard in the mid-80s. While he doesn't repeat his delivery consistently at this point, his athleticism bodes well for his future."

 

If the Twins had a few earlier picks like Miami does (3 in the 30-40 range), I think I'd be really excited at drafting Touki and saving a little money for those extra picks. But we don't so it might be a bit of a reach at #5. That said, 10 years from now, he could be the best pitcher out of this draft.

[tobi0040]

I have no problem preferring Jackson or a different prospect to Gordon. Part of the fun of following the draft is debating whom the Twins should draft. The problem I have is you are inaccurately depicting Gordon's defensive prospect level by comparing him to other past Twins prospects.

 

When evaluating SS defense you have to look at several things. Arm strength, hands, size, instincts, range, and lateral movement.

 

Polanco signed for $750k (not bad but not elite for an international prospect) at age 16. The article you linked suggested Polanco most likely will have to move off SS because "his lack of size and arm strength." Gordon has a 70 grade arm and is 6'1 with a solid family blood line that suggests he will be the ideal SS size.

 

Levi Michael was a the 30th overall pick in the 2011 signed out of North Carolina. Here is what mlb.com had to say about his defense: "When he's healthy, he's got above-average speed and will steal a base. An ankle injury has slowed him somewhat this season on both sides of the ball. Even before that, some scouts felt his range was too limited to be an everyday shortstop as a professional. His average arm is playable there but might be a bit short to profile there all the time. As a result, most see him as a second baseman -- his hands work just fine." Gordon is 3+ inches taller than Michael, has a stronger arm, and has better range.

 

As for Dozier, I personal don't remember his scouting report but he was a 8th round picking coming out of college. While he is currently preforming well in the bigs you can't compare an 8th round pick to a potential top 5 pick prospect wise.

 

Instead of comparing him to past Twins prospects we should look at his skills. Here is BA's take: "The game comes easy to Gordon, who is a confident, instinctive player. He has lateral range to both sides and natural, fluid actions, with soft hands to go with a plus arm that is the arguably the best infield arm in the high school class." Gordon has everything you are looking for defensively for a SS which is more then I can say for past Twins SS prospects.

 

Just something I think we should consider.

 

 

 

I am not comparing Gordon with these other guys per se. I am just calling out a few things:

 

-We have drafted or signed numerous SS prospects and moved them. A few we thought would stick at SS

 

-We have very high standards for our SS defensively

 

-It is common for a player to grow an inch or two and put on 15-25 pounds from when they are 17 or 18. Does anyone recognize this guy? He is now 6'4 or 6'5 and probably 225 or 230 pounds. So when I look at a kid that does not have a huge bat, i.e. would be limited if he is not a SS and is 6'1, 170 at this same age.....I guess I am not as sold that he is a lock to never grow off SS or meet our expectations.

 

http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/multimedia/photo_gallery/0906/mlb.last.25.number1.picks/images/joe-mauer-draft.jpg

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Let me get this right. Scouts expect Gordon's hit and power to come along as he fills into his frame... but there's absolutely no risk he outgrows shortstop?

 

 

Who here said "no risk"? Just curious.

[tobi0040]

I think Toussaint could be a really intriguing and brave pick. mlbpipeline ranked him #16 but likes his upside - he could have two plus pitches. "Toussaint, who spent most of the first six years of his life in Haiti, has one of the quickest and loosest arms in the 2014 high school class. He's still learning to control his pitches but could have a pair of well above-average offerings once he does.

Toussaint usually operates at 91-93 mph with his fastball and has shown the ability to reach 97. His mid-70s curveball has so much downward break that his catchers have trouble holding onto it. He also shows the willingness to use a changeup, though he currently throws his too hard in the mid-80s. While he doesn't repeat his delivery consistently at this point, his athleticism bodes well for his future."

 

If the Twins had a few earlier picks like Miami does (3 in the 30-40 range), I think I'd be really excited at drafting Touki and saving a little money for those extra picks. But we don't so it might be a bit of a reach at #5. That said, 10 years from now, he could be the best pitcher out of this draft.

 

I have seen Touki in the 7-9 range, but I don't want to get too caught up in where other people think he should be drafted. I read his fastball sits 92-93 and can run up to 95-96 and he has a sick curve ball, as good as any in the draft and a future 70 pitch. Along with a serviceable change up, which is normal for a high school kid.

 

Keith Law said Jackson has the best shot of anyone in this draft class of being a consistent 35 HR a year guy.

 

The upside potential of those two interest me.

[tobi0040]

Who here said "no risk"? Just curious.

 

The term "near lock to stick at SS" has been used, as well as "every scout says he will stick at SS". Pretty close to no risk.

[nicksaviking]

I don't dislike Gordon but at #5, I could really care less about defense.

 

It's hip to talk about defensive measurables these days, but offense is still much, much more important than defense. If the Twins go offense, I guess I want the guy who has the best bat regardless of position.

 

Still, I'm glad to see Holmes, Newcomb and Toussaint continue to inch up the rankings. Those guys still intregue me.

[Mike Sixel]

I'll be pleased with Jackson, Gordon, or a pitcher with great breaking ball(s) (the reserach on FG is pretty clear.....good FB, great breaking ball, that's the ticket).