2014 MLB Draft Thread

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Keith Law Released his new top 100 today and is also having a chat. If anyone wants to know where someone is ranked ask. Here is his top 10 without write ups:

 

1. Aiken

2. Rodon

3. Kolek

4. Gordon

5. Zimmer

6. Jackson

7. Holmes

8. Fedde

9. Newcomb

10. Nola

 

Here is a link (insider required) to the full list:

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/mock/?season=2014&version=2&source=Keith-Law-Big-Board

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Crawford also released an article (insider) today on the highest ceiling players in the draft. He named the HS/College hitters/pit hers with the highest ceiling. Here is who he had:

 

HS bat- Getty's

HS arm- Toussaint

College bat- Zimmer

College arm- Rodon

 

Link to article:

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1655

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Few Keith Law chat questions:

 

Better draft class than last year?

Klaw (1:09 PM)

Yes, more pitching depth for me well into the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

 

Keith, have you heard what names the Twins are on? I'd really like to see Gordon, we don't have anyone like him in our system.

Klaw (1:11 PM)

Gordon and Nola in particular with them.

 

Hoffman has to drop because of TJ but how far?

Klaw (1:08 PM)

Million dollar question - or maybe $2 million. I think teams with a second pick right after the first round would be in position to get creative and pay him over slot down there. Astros would be one such team, as would the Royals with three picks between 17 and 40 and a history of doing just that (Manaea last year). Sources have also pointed out Washington and Boston as teams that might be interested in overpaying him if he fell to them.

 

He also mentions in a separate question that Theo scouted Gordon in person last week.

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Second potential top 10 pick in Fedde goes down with TJ..... These college arms are dropping like flies.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Second potential top 10 pick in Fedde goes down with TJ..... These college arms are dropping like flies.

 

Not necessarily a bad thing if they could get a guy like Gordon or Freeland for a bit under slot.

[Mike Sixel]

Insider story today, on safest picks in the draft. thoughts on Gordon.

 

Highest floor high-school bat: Nick Gordon, SS, Olympia HS (Orlando)

 

......

 

“[Gordon] can really pick it,” an NL Central scout said. “He makes the difficult look routine on a more consistent basis than any shortstop I’ve seen in this year’s class. You add in the fact that he’s got a chance to get on base and steal 20 bases, and it’s difficult see him not being a first-division shortstop for a very long time.”

[kab21]

The good news is that his defense is good enough to make the majors (high floor). The lesser news is that his 2 weakest tools are hit and hit for power. the hopeful news is that he has actually made some mechanical improvements this season instead of just beating up on significantly less talented pitchers.

 

Right now he's probably in my top 5.

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With the Hoffman and Fedde arm injuries it really makes the cubs/our pick interesting. Can we still get Gordon under slot? Heck, can we still get Gordon? Is he good enough to draft at 5 instead of an advanced college arm? Personallys I feel the answer to all the questions is yes.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Latest from Dan Kirby. Ran it by a Twins source who called it both "interesting and accurate". Ran it by another who called it "interesting and starting to get fun."

 

Teams start to get an idea of what guys are becoming the focus of other teams, but it's really impossible to trust anything right now.

 

I think both would be jacked to see Kolek fall. Gordon going "under slot" is becoming popular. Though Gordon getting top 5 money is looking for justified every day.

[tobi0040]

Few Keith Law chat questions:

 

Better draft class than last year?

Klaw (1:09 PM)

Yes, more pitching depth for me well into the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

 

Keith, have you heard what names the Twins are on? I'd really like to see Gordon, we don't have anyone like him in our system.

Klaw (1:11 PM)

Gordon and Nola in particular with them.

 

Hoffman has to drop because of TJ but how far?

Klaw (1:08 PM)

Million dollar question - or maybe $2 million. I think teams with a second pick right after the first round would be in position to get creative and pay him over slot down there. Astros would be one such team, as would the Royals with three picks between 17 and 40 and a history of doing just that (Manaea last year). Sources have also pointed out Washington and Boston as teams that might be interested in overpaying him if he fell to them.

 

He also mentions in a separate question that Theo scouted Gordon in person last week.

 

 

I would not be upset if we took Hoffman at #5, lets just think about this for a second.

 

-He won't be available with our second pick, he just won't.

 

-He has more upside than anyone else, look back at the 2009 draft. Strasburg went 1-1 and needed TJ. In a re-draft, Trout goes 1-1 and Strasburg goes 1-2 (only other player drafted in the first round in the conversation is Wheeler)

 

-TJ seems like the rule, not the exception these days

 

-We could sign him for less than slot and save money with our other picks

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Major_League_Baseball_Draft

[Mike Sixel]

To what end do we think going under slot is a good idea, given the compensatory picks and teams ahead of the Twins? I just don't see the signficant advantage.

[gunnarthor]

Latest from Dan Kirby. Ran it by a Twins source who called it both "interesting and accurate". Ran it by another who called it "interesting and starting to get fun."

 

Teams start to get an idea of what guys are becoming the focus of other teams, but it's really impossible to trust anything right now.

 

I think both would be jacked to see Kolek fall. Gordon going "under slot" is becoming popular. Though Gordon getting top 5 money is looking for justified every day.

 

Some of that stuff makes some sense - Gordon going below slot at #2 b/c Maimi is cheap and has 3 other picks in the 30-40 range. Cubs have been linked to Beede before. Man, I'd love it if Kolek fell to us.

[maxisagod]

Latest from Dan Kirby. Ran it by a Twins source who called it both "interesting and accurate". Ran it by another who called it "interesting and starting to get fun."

 

Teams start to get an idea of what guys are becoming the focus of other teams, but it's really impossible to trust anything right now.

 

I think both would be jacked to see Kolek fall. Gordon going "under slot" is becoming popular. Though Gordon getting top 5 money is looking for justified every day.

 

Don't know what to make of it, all it takes is one surprise to change the look of the first round, I just feel this is two surprise picks at 2 and 4, and that's less likely.

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Kolek falling to us is a dream come true but I just can't see it happening. As max said it wouldn't take just one surprise pick but two.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

There's always going to be some risk in going under slot.

 

But teams aren't going to do it without a contingency plan. If Manaea would have gone before the Royals had a chance to pick him, they probably would have ended up taking a few more hard-to-sign guys.

 

So hypothetically, the Twins (or whoever) go under slot and hope to draft Fedde later. If he's gone, maybe you take Bukauskas later or any other high-price-tag high schooler.

 

I think it would all depend on how each team's board stacks up and how much confidence area scouts have in signing certain guys. If you can get the guy you think is the best available (which Gordon could be) and save a bunch of money, you do it, regardless of what may or may not be there... (there's probably hundreds of players that are tagged as "hard to sign guys" that would take that money).

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Kolek falling to us is a dream come true but I just can't see it happening. As max said it wouldn't take just one surprise pick but two.

 

I agree. I've also heard from one person that has seen him a number of times that the secondary stuff is far, far away. I'd consider it unlikely he falls, but not impossible.

[markos]

To what end do we think going under slot is a good idea, given the compensatory picks and teams ahead of the Twins? I just don't see the signficant advantage.

 

I do not think going deliberately and significantly under slot by selecting a lesser player with the hope of making up that talent with later picks is a good idea. However, I see nothing wrong with attempting to sign whomever the Twins dictate is the best player as cheaply as possible (within reason). With that in mind, I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins have had (or will have) discussions with a dozen or more players about what they would sign for at #5. Most players in the 5-15 ranks have a reasonable incentive to cut a slightly under slot deal. Hopefully these negotiations bear little or no impact on the actual selection.

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BA article on Kolek:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/kolek-sets-new-bar-for-texas-heat/

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Let's not forget the Rockies signed Gray last year under slot and several experts had him as the drafts best player. Going under slot doesn't have to mean you get a lesser player.

[nicksaviking]

I would not be upset if we took Hoffman at #5, lets just think about this for a second.

 

-He won't be available with our second pick, he just won't.

 

-He has more upside than anyone else, look back at the 2009 draft. Strasburg went 1-1 and needed TJ. In a re-draft, Trout goes 1-1 and Strasburg goes 1-2 (only other player drafted in the first round in the conversation is Wheeler)

 

-TJ seems like the rule, not the exception these days

 

-We could sign him for less than slot and save money with our other picks

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Major_League_Baseball_Draft

 

If it was Rodon/Kolek/Aiken I might agree, but as much as I like Hoffman, I think he was in the tier below them. He might have had the tier to himself, but his inconsistancies kept him from being with the top three arms.

[Kwak]

"... his 2 weakest tools are hit and hit for power."

The Twins have people who fit that profile now. There is no reason to spend such a valuable chip as the #5 selection on a guy who won't hit much--unless he is a pitcher.

 

Drafting an injured man (Hoffman) before his recovery process has started is suicidal. How would the GM, scouting director, nay the entire management explain away that they drafted a known, seriously injured player, if said player "washes-out"? There is so much unknown that Hoffman can't be projected as highly as he was before this injury.

[kab21]

The Twins have people who fit that profile now. There is no reason to spend such a valuable chip as the #5 selection on a guy who won't hit much--unless he is a pitcher.

 

I think you are making a massive leap that he won't hit much just because his two weakest tools are hit tools. And the Twins don't have anyone that fits the same profile in the majors or minors. Polanco is the closest and probably only guy that is remotely close and he's not that close.

 

Nobody should have any expectations that he's going to be a .290+ 20-30 HR type SS. Somebody in this thread threw out Tulo's name in support of taking him several pages back.

 

The questions that need to be answered is just how good the hit tools are. I saw one site that had him with a 40/55 (current/future) hit tool and lower power tool. He's crushing HS pitching but that doesn't mean anything. Everybody that gets drafted in the 1st rd (and definitely top 10) should destroy HS pitching.

[tobi0040]

If it was Rodon/Kolek/Aiken I might agree, but as much as I like Hoffman, I think he was in the tier below them. He might have had the tier to himself, but his inconsistancies kept him from being with the top three arms.

 

If the 3 arms are off the table and Jackson is off the table. You have to consider it. Add Jose Fernandez to the argument. He went 6th overall and was an upside guy. Tore up MLB and now he likely needs Tommy John. I bet right now in a re-draft, five guys don't go ahead of him. If Hoffman's ceiling is much higher than the next teir, it could be a good strategy.

 

The draft is literally the only avenue the Twins have left to add high ceiling talent. We were never players in free agency and the international free agent market has priced us out as well (I am not saying we should be priced out, but that is another topic). We also won't be drafting this high anytime soon.

 

Sounds like the next tier includes two SS's who aren't going to hit much.

[nicksaviking]

If the 3 arms are off the table and Jackson is off the table. You have to consider it. Add Jose Fernandez to the argument. He went 6th overall and was an upside guy. Tore up MLB and now he likely needs Tommy John. I bet right now in a re-draft, five guys don't go ahead of him. If Hoffman's ceiling is much higher than the next teir, it could be a good strategy.

 

The draft is literally the only avenue the Twins have left to add high ceiling talent. We were never players in free agency and the international free agent market has priced us out as well (I am not saying we should be priced out, but that is another topic). We also won't be drafting this high anytime soon.

 

Sounds like the next tier includes two SS's who aren't going to hit much.

 

The problem is that we KNOW what Jose Fernandez is, we have no clue about Hoffman. I don't think it's a given that the Twins would have taken him at #5 if he was healthy. I like him, but I'm not sure the Twins would have been comfortable with the incosistancy.

 

I'm also afraid you're making the assumption that guys who have TJ surgery come back from it without missing a beat. The Twins have had a lousey TJ success record. Liriano was never the same, Baker can't make a MLB roster, Wimmers can nearly be called a bust. Even Gibson isn't the pitcher we were all anticipating pre-TJ surgery.

 

Again, if it was Rodon, Kolek or Aiken you probably have an arguement, but Hoffman does not seem to be in their class. He would have gone 4 or 5 anyway, surely a surgery that could derail his career should knock him down at least a couple pegs.

 

There are other high ceiling arms if they want to go that route. Holmes, Toussaint and Newcomb may be just as electric.

 

And I think there is a very good chance the Twins draft this high again. They currently would be picking be picking 7th if the 2015 draft were to be held today and the offense is outplaying it's talent level by a large margin.

[kab21]

Sounds like the next tier includes two SS's who aren't going to hit much.

 

This is painting with a broad brush stroke. Just because nobody is projecting Gordon to hit 25+ HR's doesn't mean that he isn't going to hit. I still need to be reassured that Gordon can be a .290/.350/.440/.790 hitter with plus defense at SS. That is a likely every year all-star if it happens. I think that is a high enough ceiling but I'm still concerned that the hit tool is raw.

 

There's also a good chance that the Twins will be drafting in the top ten again next year.

[Mike Sixel]

Of course you try to pay as little as you can.....but that's not what the strategy of drafting to under slot is.......whatever, I think we've crushed that topic.

 

Best high upside arm, Gordon, or Jackson (move to OF). That's my preference. We'll see what happens.

[markos]

This is painting with a broad brush stroke. Just because nobody is projecting Gordon to hit 25+ HR's doesn't mean that he isn't going to hit. I still need to be reassured that Gordon can be a .290/.350/.440/.790 hitter with plus defense at SS. That is a likely every year all-star if it happens. I think that is a high enough ceiling but I'm still concerned that the hit tool is raw.

That line would be pretty amazing for a shortstop, and with plus defense it would easily make him a 4-6 Win player.

 

Some shortstop comparisons...

Jimmy Rollins

Career: .269/.328/.426/.754

Peak (2007): .296/.344/.531/.875 - 6.4 fWAR

 

Elvis Andrus

Career: .273/.338/.348/.686

Peak (2012): .286/.349/.378/.727 - 4.0 fWAR

 

The nice thing about SS is that the bar is so low for hitting that even a below-average hitter can be very valuable. That is one of the reasons why I have him ahead of Jackson. Just out of curiosity, how would you fill in the same sentence about Jackson?

"I still need to be reassured that Jackson can be a X/Y/Z/(Y+Z) hitter with ?? defense at (LF? RF? C?)."

[gunnarthor]

Just out of curiosity, how would you fill in the same sentence about Jackson?

"I still need to be reassured that Jackson can be a X/Y/Z/(Y+Z) hitter with ?? defense at (LF? RF? C?)."

 

I'd be happy with Cuddyer like offense and avg or better corner defense - something like a .281/.350/.471 117 OPS+ avg (Cuddy's numbers since 06 and also very close to Wil Myers career offensive numbers to date). That would probably avg out to a 3 WAR player with a better peak. If the defense is bad, I'd want something closer to a healthy Milton Bradley run - .289/.389/.474 127 OPS+ to fix that defensive hole.

[tobi0040]

This is painting with a broad brush stroke. Just because nobody is projecting Gordon to hit 25+ HR's doesn't mean that he isn't going to hit. I still need to be reassured that Gordon can be a .290/.350/.440/.790 hitter with plus defense at SS. That is a likely every year all-star if it happens. I think that is a high enough ceiling but I'm still concerned that the hit tool is raw.

 

There's also a good chance that the Twins will be drafting in the top ten again next year.

 

If he was viewed as a guy that could have a .790 OPS and even have average defense, he would be off the board at #5. I have seen a 45 and 50 for hit tool, so that doesn't scream .790 OPS to me.

 

The other issue I see is he is 6'1 and 170 pounds in high school. Our organization has a very, very high threshold for short stops defensively and we have umpeen 2B prospects that we drafted or signed as SS, not to mention a guy that may be there for awhile. What are the odds this guy grows off the position and/or can't meet our requirements if he is between 6'1 and 6'3 and weights 190+ pounds? If he grows off SS and is a 45/50 hitter, he is a marginal MLB player at best.

 

In response to the draft order, I am thinking we end up 8-12th in the next draft, which is not supposed to be as talented.

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Callis and Mayo debate who the Cubs should take now that Hoffman is injured.

Callis says Jackson:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/jim-callis-cubs-would-be-wise-to-draft-jackson-at-no-4?ymd=20140513&content_id=75298266&vkey=news_mlb

 

Mayo says Gordon:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/jonathan-mayo-nick-gordon-fits-for-cubs-at-no-4-in-draft?ymd=20140513&content_id=75299890&vkey=news_mlb