2014 MLB Draft Thread

[Willihammer]

John Manuel isn't willing to comp Chavis to Russell either

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1398267269

 

• Hammer (draft nerd): What are the chances Michael Chavis ends up being this year's Addison Russell?
  

 

John Manuel: I would not make that comparison in any way. Chavis can really hit, and both are righthanded bats. That's about it.

[Willihammer]

JM on AJ Reed:

 

• Michael (Louisville): John, can AJ Reed from UK be the "pop-up" guy this year that goes in the 1st round?
  

 

John Manuel: He could hit his way into the first round. He leads the county in home runs, and he's improved his body significantly this season. There are scouts who don't love the swing or bat speed, but the bat-to-ball skills and strength are clearly enough for him to dominate at this level. I don't see him in the first round yet but he certainly could continue to hit his way up draft boards.

 

Again I wonder what more Reed would have to do. He lead all college batters in ISO by over .100 points as of Apr 17.

[cmb0252]

John Manuel's chat was very......interesting. He suggested about 15 names in play for top 5 picks which seems high. Here are few questions from the chat:

 

How are Twins gonna resist temptation of Aaron Nola at pick #5?

John Manuel: Ha, they do love strike-throwers. That said, Freeland throws as many strikes, is lefthanded and has more stuff. The Twins have prioritized velocity in recent drafts and that points them away from Nola, but I don’t think Nola would be out of place at No. 5 either. He does more with his fastball than the majority of college pitchers. Erick Fedde would not be totally out of place there either, and is another guy with the combination of velocity and fastball command to interested Deron Johnson, Mike Radcliff & Co.

 

What range do you see LHP Kyle Freeland going around? Is he picking up momentum around scouts, assistant GMs, and GMs?

John Manuel: Freeland does have momentum, and I could see him going very high. For me, he’d have to be in play at any spot in the first 10 selections. I don’t think he’s the right fit at No. 1 overall, but it’s not outlandish. He has stuff, command and a good pro body, plus he’s from Colorado, and I have an irrational fetish for tall pitchers from Colorado (I blame Roy Halladay, Brad Lidge, Kevin Gausman, Mark Melancon … I could go on). And no college pitcher has performed like Freeland this season when you look at his K-BB ratio.

John, what is Alex Jackson's ceiling/floor in terms of when he'll be selected? Seems like Houston and Miami need pitching more than hitting, but CWS could use everything. On the pessimistic side, could he fall out of the top 10?

John Manuel: In this draft class, Jackson’s power and offensive ability stand out. I don’t see him falling out of the first 10 picks. I think he’s in play anywhere in the first 10 selections, frankly. He can hit, he’s athletic, he has a lengthy track record (particularly for a high school player) and he could remain at a premium position.

 

Will Alex Jackson folllow the likes of Will Meyers and Bryce Harper and move from behind the plate due to the advanced bat? Is he at that level where it warrants moving him from behind the dish?

John Manuel: That’s possible but I don’t believe he has the explosiveness offensively those two guys have. I do see him moving to RF as a possibility because the bat is advanced, but I haven’t talked to a scout who puts him in the same power category as those two.

 

Hey John, thanks for the chat! Jedi (really Theo) is gonna take a pitcher at No. 4 right? Given this draft is pitcher-heavy, and the relative lack of arms in our system compared with our positional depth, this seems pretty obvious. One of Hoffman, Beede, Rodon, Aiken, Kolek is gonna be there.

John Manuel: We thought the same thing last year, when the Cubs picked No. 2 overall, but they wound up going with a hitter in Kris Bryant. That said, there is not a Bryant in this draft, and this pitcher class is stronger than it was last year. Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod were all in town last week to see both Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Rodon, so both are in play, as potentially are Aiken and Kolek as you said. I can see Aaron Nola being in that mix, though he’s more in the Mike Leake mold, and I believe Kyle Freeland, Erick Fedde and Brandon Finnegan also could be in that mix at No. 4. None of those guys would stun me at No. 4, though I would at this point be a bit surprised by Beede at that spot.

 

With his recent spate of bad starts, how far has Tyler Beede's draft stock fallen? Or are MLB evaluators focusing largely on his arm talent and viewing this as a blip on the radar?

John Manuel: We do hear Beede was probably a shade high at No. 6 in our Midseason Update. He seems to be in a bad groove right now; when he throws strikes, he gets hit, or he has one of those 5-walk outings. His command lags behind his control. The pitch that has really caught scouts’ attention is the improvement in his changeup, but it feels like he’s more of a 6-10 pick overall rather than a threat to go in the first five selections. I don’t believe he’ll fall into the second half, barring injury, just because there is so much to work with there.

 

He also answered questions on Gatewood, Gordon, eager, Turner, and more.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2014-draft-update-chat-with-john-manuel/

[cmb0252]

JM on AJ Reed:

 

 

 

Again I wonder what more Reed would have to do. He lead all college batters in ISO by over .100 points as of Apr 17.

 

Reed is an interesting guy but lack of bat speed and the fact he is going to be a 1B or DH in the bigs kills his draft stock. Dude can hit it a mile though.

[InfraRen]

Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd

Out two weeks with arm soreness. Unconfirmed buzz is that it's elbow RT @lot_49: @kileymcd What happened to Hoffman?

Possibly not good as far as the hoping-one-of-the-top-pitchers-falls goes.

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Possibly not good as far as the hoping-one-of-the-top-pitchers-falls goes.

 

Wow, I hadn't seen that. Terrible news. Crawford released an insider article on players with the most to gain/lose and Hoffman was the college pitcher with the most to gain. Here is what one front office member had to say:

 

"It's going to be a huge final four or five starts [for Hoffman]," an AL front-office member said. "We all saw how dominant he was over the summer, and we saw glimpses of that this year, but last week was the first time we saw Hoffman really put it all together this season. If he can be that guy up until the end of May, I think he's got a really good chance of being the first pitcher to come off of the board when the draft gets here."

 

Beede was the college pitcher with the most to lose.

Fisher was the college bat with the most to gain and Zimmer was the college bat with the most to lose.

 

Full article and breakdown here:

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1606

 

[InfraRen]

That said, if he is shut down now, say - would you take him at 5 if there?

[Willihammer]

Reed is an interesting guy but lack of bat speed and the fact he is going to be a 1B or DH in the bigs kills his draft stock. Dude can hit it a mile though.

How slow is the bat exactly?

 

And, didn't scouts say that about Jose Abreu too when he played in the Serie Nacional?

 

I don't know if Reed has the same potential - he very well could be a dud. But I am putting less and less stock in reports about "bat speed," or lack thereof. Just from a physics standpoint, the bat on ball force is a product of bat speed AND bat weight.

 

He may have slow bat speed but if he's not getting beat on fastballs and hitting the ball a mile then he seems to be right on the sweet spot.

 

Bat weight isn't fixed therefore bat speed isn't either. Swing a lighter bat, swing faster as the pitching requires.

[Mike Sixel]

I love Crawford's work.

[cmb0252]

Here is another article on A.J. Reed:

 

http://kentucky.247sports.com/Article/UK-two-way-star-AJ-Reed-making-case-for-Golden-Spikes-Award-28315318

[cmb0252]

I love Crawford's work.

 

He does great work for ESPN and on his own site. Monday he will have a new mock and the week after that he will have a 100 prospect deep draft board.

[cmb0252]

How slow is the bat exactly?

 

And, didn't scouts say that about Jose Abreu too when he played in the Serie Nacional?

 

I don't know if Reed has the same potential - he very well could be a dud. But I am putting less and less stock in reports about "bat speed," or lack thereof. Just from a physics standpoint, the bat on ball force is a product of bat speed AND bat weight.

 

He may have slow bat speed but if he's not getting beat on fastballs and hitting the ball a mile then he seems to be right on the sweet spot.

 

Bat weight isn't fixed therefore bat speed isn't either. Swing a lighter bat, swing faster as the pitching requires.

 

I haven't seen Reed play in person so I can only go by what I read.

[cmb0252]

Rodon dominated this weekend. Complete game with 15 K. Reports had his fastball hitting 97. He did throw over 125+ pitches for his third straight outing.

 

Not to be out done, Kolek struck out 16. Apparently the Marlins, white Sox, and cubs GMs were on hand for the performance.

[Twins Twerp]

Rodon dominated this weekend. Complete game with 15 K. Reports had his fastball hitting 97. He did throw over 125+ pitches for his third straight outing.

 

Not to be out done, Kolek struck out 16. Apparently the Marlins, white Sox, and cubs GMs were on hand for the performance.

 

Whoever picks rodon is going to have to shut him down after his college coaches have continuously threatened his future. He actual threw 135 pitches...he has averaged like 125 the last three weeks. I wonder how that helps/hurts his stock.

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, I keep thinking of Philip Humber with Rodon now.

[cmb0252]

Whoever picks rodon is going to have to shut him down after his college coaches have continuously threatened his future. He actual threw 135 pitches...he has averaged like 125 the last three weeks. I wonder how that helps/hurts his stock.

 

It's great to see him pitch better but with the TJ surgery epidemic going on I can't see how it is a good thing.

[cmb0252]

Through the fences website released a mock today and have the Twins taking Nick Gordon. Here is their write up:

 

Gordon is displaying all the tools this season that will make him a top-10 pick come June — he is one of the most exciting players in the 2014 MLB draft. Already a gifted defender at shortstop with a strong arm, instincts and great glove, he has shown increased power while maintaining his speed and advanced approach at the plate. The left-handed batter is hitting .507/.620/.870 over 27 games with nine doubles, two triples, five home runs and 17 stolen bases. He has drawn 18 walks to just three strikeouts and has been plunked five times. With his bloodlines, athleticism and baseball instincts, he has as much upside as anyone in the 2014 MLB draft. Committed to Florida State.

[Twins Twerp]

7. Philadelphia Phillies — Alex Jackson, C/OF, Rancho Bernardo HS (CA)

 

With arguably the top-four pitchers off the board, I think the Twins would go after the best prep bat in the 2014 MLB draft. Jackson is a 6’-2”, 200 pound right-hander with enormous power, excellent bat speed and an advanced approach at the plate. He has all of the tools to stick at catcher, but most feel a move to the outfield is likely because of the offensive upside. Through 20 games, he is hitting .414/.590/.965 with eight home runs and has drawn 16 walks to six strikeouts. He also has been hit by a pitch nine times. Committed to Oregon.

That is the write up for the Phillies. I wonder if perhaps the author meant to make Jackson the Twins selection. I just don't see the Twins taking Gordon even with the bloodlines, especially when pitching is so hard to come by (see 48 million for Nolasco). Also, hard to trust a site who can't see a mistake in the top 10, first sentence no less of the number 7 pick...just saying.

[gunnarthor]

Good catch, Twerp

[cmb0252]

QUOTE=Twins Twerp;219965]7. Philadelphia Phillies — Alex Jackson, C/OF, Rancho Bernardo HS (CA)

 

With arguably the top-four pitchers off the board, I think the Twins would go after the best prep bat in the 2014 MLB draft. Jackson is a 6’-2”, 200 pound right-hander with enormous power, excellent bat speed and an advanced approach at the plate. He has all of the tools to stick at catcher, but most feel a move to the outfield is likely because of the offensive upside. Through 20 games, he is hitting .414/.590/.965 with eight home runs and has drawn 16 walks to six strikeouts. He also has been hit by a pitch nine times. Committed to Oregon.

That is the write up for the Phillies. I wonder if perhaps the author meant to make Jackson the Twins selection. I just don't see the Twins taking Gordon even with the bloodlines, especially when pitching is so hard to come by (see 48 million for Nolasco). Also, hard to trust a site who can't see a mistake in the top 10, first sentence no less of the number 7 pick...just saying.

 

The site isn't the most credible but no mock draft this early is credible regardless of the source. I wanted to post this one because Gordon, outside of a few fans here who want the Twins to draft a SS, hasn't been talked about as an option at 5. He hasn't only had a great season statistically but scouting.

 

While you can never have enough pitching once Buxton/Sano graduate our system will be lacking in elite bats. Would it be such a bat thing to grab a top 50 talent bat at 5 and then grab an arm in the second round?

 

Also, talking about mocks Crawford is releasing his second one tomorrow.

[Twins Twerp]

Exciting about Crawford. Two drafts ago I wanted the twins to take best pitcher available. Last year i was hoping for best pitcher available, this year I would like the twins to take best pitcher available. I have an eerie feeling that the twins will take Jackson because top 4 arms will be gone.

 

If that happens I think all twins fans would be bummed we didnt get ace potential just like we were with buxton. Hopefully after two years we will admitting our own ignorance to the draft process and praising the twins. If Jackson is the next Wil Myer, are we happy? I think so.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I didn't realize that Gordon was hitting that well. What's the big knock on him? If he's one that scouts think can stick at SS defensively, and he looks like a potential Tulo type guy with the bat, I'd say that there's a good case for BPA... I think I still like some of the pitchers better, but if Hoffman is hurt and Rodon, Kolek, and Aiken are all off the board, Gordon has to be a consideration.

[Mike Sixel]

There is no knock on Gordon, KLAW has him 9 or 10 overall.....last I checked. He has put on muscle this year, and is no longer a slap hitter like he appeared to be last year.

[Lonestar]

I have an eerie feeling that the twins will take Jackson because top 4 arms will be gone...

 

If Jackson is the next Wil Myer, are we happy? I think so.

With Hoffman on the shelf, Jackson could be gone in the top 4.

 

Jackson is the top hitting prospect. That doesn't make him the next Myer. John Manuel said it was a mistake to compare him to Myer. I had him #2 on my board before I read that

 

If you draft Jackson, do you have him don the tools of ignorance -- that is, do you have him play catcher? I'm not concerned about speeding his path to the Show.

[diehardtwinsfan]

With Hoffman on the shelf, Jackson could be gone in the top 4.

 

Jackson is the top hitting prospect. That doesn't make him the next Myer. John Manuel said it was a mistake to compare him to Myer. I had him #2 on my board before I read that

 

If you draft Jackson, do you have him don the tools of ignorance -- that is, do you have him play catcher? I'm not concerned about speeding his path to the Show.

 

 

I'd argue he's far more valuable as a catcher than an OF. Given the lack of need at either positions, if he's the BPA and we take him, I'd think it would be best to leave him at C.

[Mike Sixel]

a short excerpt from ESPN today:

 

"To me, it's not even close [that Gordon is the best shortstop in this year's draft]," an NL West scout said. "And that includes both the college and high school side. The swing isn't perfect, but he's got quality bat speed and his bat-to-ball skills are well above-average. Add in the defensive ability, and you get a guy who has a chance to be a top-10 shortstop, maybe even better if everything goes right in his development."

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post/_/id/1613/carlos-rodon-makes-a-statement

[kab21]

The early knock on Gordon is that his brother might not have more power than Revere. That isn't and never was true of Nick. The question is though just how much power will he develop. He's definitely not going to be a Tulo type SS. From what I read I see more of what we expected out of Starlin Castro. .280+, 10-15 HR's and 10-20 SB's with solid defense at SS.

 

One of the big problems with him at #5 is that he is all tools. Kind of like Aaron Hicks in some ways. He's the kind of prospect that could take 4+ years to get through the minors and turn average. Or never make it. tbh I have Gordon as a higher upside/lower floor version of Trea turner.

 

I find it ironic that Trea Turner is now out of the conversation for some of you that were making a case for him. He's having basically the same season except his BAPIP dropped from .390 to .300 this year.

[kab21]

I'd argue he's far more valuable as a catcher than an OF. Given the lack of need at either positions, if he's the BPA and we take him, I'd think it would be best to leave him at C.

 

You certainly leave him at catcher for 2 seasons. At that point they should have some idea how much slower the path to the majors is at catcher and if he would be a liability there.

[Mike Sixel]

Not sure what you mean by "all tools". Given his stats line, he looks like production and tools to me, not just tools. I would think every guy drafted might "never make it". I'm not saying they should take him.....just that dismissing seems like a really bad idea. If he's a top 10 SS, that's certainly worth number 5.

[markos]

Jackson is the top hitting prospect. That doesn't make him the next Myer. John Manuel said it was a mistake to compare him to Myer. I had him #2 on my board before I read that

 

Lonestar, can you share the link where you read that? Or at least provide the context? I'm trying to figure out what he meant. Is Jackson a different type of player than Myer (making direct comparisons questionable) or a clearly inferior player? If it is the latter, I'm very curious why he has that opinion. Myer wasn't very highly thought of going into the 2009 draft (#31 on BA's board, drafted in 3rd round), while Jackson has been in top-10 discussions all year.