2014 MLB Draft Thread

[nicksaviking]

2012 - 4.52 ERA, 71 IP, 68 K, .287 BA against. 3.95 BB per 9.

 

 

2013 - 2.10 ERA, 94 IP, 97 K, .179 BA against, 5.26 BB per 9 (not a typo).

 

 

2014 - 2.81 ERA, 48 IP, 52 K, .175 BA against, 3.0 BB per 9.

 

I hope he manages his control enough so that someone in front of us takes him. This has us changing his delivery to gain better control written all over it.

 

Agreed. No way the Twins change their philosophy for Beede. It's the other way around. I wouldn't be surprised if he's already out of contention for the front office.

[nicksaviking]

You're missing Beede's latest start against Texas A&M 5IP 4K 4BB

Unless Beede turns it around, I can see him falling toToronto. Again. They would need his permission to draft him since they draftedhim in 2011. It could be that he falls past Toronto.

 

I think he does fall further. Could be a Stanek or Manaea even?

[gunnarthor]

The fact that Beede is a little wild is what intrigues me. He let's it go and is anti-The Twins Way. Beede WANTS to strike people out and that is why he is a top 5'er for me.

 

Actually, the Twins haven't really drafted the Twins way since Johnson took over. The fact that Gibson is the only Twins pitcher to make the majors in that time might make you rethink your position - Gutierrez, Hunt, Bashore, Bullock, Tootle etc. A lot of those guys were big time strike out pitchers that were a little wild.

 

I'm actually terrified of a Beede pick at this point.

[cmb0252]

New ESPN insider article by Crawford:

 

A scouts take on Jackson:

"I think Jackson is the best hitter in the class," an NL scout said. "He had some timing issues early in the year, but he's impressed me with the way he's made adjustments. I think you're looking at a guy who can hit .300 and give you 25-30 homers during his best seasons, and I don't see any other hitter with that kind of potential this season at either the college or high school level. I think he's going to end up in right field, and he should be an All-Star there."

 

Other notes:

Aiken is a beast and could be the first HS pitcher taken at #1 since the Yankees took Brien Taylor #1 in 1991.

 

Nola dominated again this week but some scouts question how he will do vs big league left handed batters.

 

One scout thinks if Hoffman's breaking pitch doesn't show the same life it did in the Cape Cod League he could be a back end starter.

 

Crawford says most scouts he has talk to have Beede as the #2 collegiate pitcher even after his poor outing this weekend.

 

Zimmer could be the best collegiate bat in the draft and could go top 10. He has been hot all year but went 1-10 this weekend.

 

Link to the article which has a ton more notes:

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1511

 

[cmb0252]

Actually, the Twins haven't really drafted the Twins way since Johnson took over. The fact that Gibson is the only Twins pitcher to make the majors in that time might make you rethink your position - Gutierrez, Hunt, Bashore, Bullock, Tootle etc. A lot of those guys were big time strike out pitchers that were a little wild.

 

I'm actually terrified of a Beede pick at this point.

 

Beede has insane stuff but he scares me too. Just not sure if the command will ever come.

[Willihammer]

Seems like the top two tiers are starting to take shape.

 

Aiken, Kolek, Jackson, Rodon in tier 1.

 

Hoffman, Holmes, Toussaint, Zimmer, Nola, others in tier 2.

 

Am I wrong?

[Lonestar]

Seems like the top two tiers are starting to take shape.

 

Aiken, Kolek, Jackson, Rodon in tier 1.

 

Hoffman, Holmes, Toussaint, Zimmer, Nola, others in tier 2.

 

Am I wrong?

I wouldn't be surprised to see your tier 1 to go in the first 4 picks.

 

I wouldn't put Nola or Toussaint in tier 2 yet. Toussaint is certainly intriguing and might make it but I don't think Crawford or KLaw or McDaniel et al have nominated him for the second tier.

 

Is Beede in your second tier?

[Willihammer]

I wouldn't be surprised to see your tier 1 to go in the first 4 picks.

 

I wouldn't put Nola or Toussaint in tier 2 yet. Toussaint is certainly intriguing and might make it but I don't think Crawford or KLaw or McDaniel et al have nominated him for the second tier.

 

Is Beede in your second tier?

 

Not mine personally, no.

 

Put it another way - the top tier is starting to take shape, and it looks like the Twins might be on the outside looking in.

[gunnarthor]

Seems like the top two tiers are starting to take shape.

 

Aiken, Kolek, Jackson, Rodon in tier 1.

 

Hoffman, Holmes, Toussaint, Zimmer, Nola, others in tier 2.

 

Am I wrong?

 

I suppose but the Crawford piece was the first real negative I've read about Hoffman. I'd like to know more about that but I still like him.

[maxisagod]

I suppose but the Crawford piece was the first real negative I've read about Hoffman. I'd like to know more about that but I still like him.

 

Rumors of the White Sox liking him at 3 would make me think he's still top tier, or that the top tier may not be settled by draft day.

[tobi0040]

Beede has insane stuff but he scares me too. Just not sure if the command will ever come.

 

Beede looks an awful lot like Trevor May to me. The Twins don't really care that May has struck out 814 batters in 680 innings. Last year he K'd 159 in 151 innings. His ERA was 4.15 if you remove his best two and worst two starts. His BB per 9 was just a tad over 3 in that sample. But we were dissapointed and will not promote him until he gets the BB's down.

 

Seems like an awful match.

[cmb0252]

I suppose but the Crawford piece was the first real negative I've read about Hoffman. I'd like to know more about that but I still like him.

 

Here is the exact quote:

"He looks like a solid back-end starter to me," an AL West scout said. There's nothing wrong with that, but if you saw him over the summer you'd be disappointed with that prognosis. The slider/curve just isn't an out pitch like it was in the Cape Cod League, and without that, I don't see a guy worth a top ten pick."

Personally I'm still a huge fan of his. If he can find his breaking ball I think he is a solid #2 starter. Crawford is releasing his new draft board tomorrow so it should be interesting where he ranks Hoffman. Once it is up I will post it here. Also, this week or next week mlb.com is supposedly updating their draft board.

[twinsin17]

Give it a week or two and Kyle Freeland's name will be coming out of everyone's mouth as a top 5 candidate. I am not too worried the top tier is just four players deep, there does not seem to be the same drop off in talent as there has been in previous drafts between the first two tiers. Last year, for instance, was a significant drop off from the top 3 to our pick at 4. I think it is safe to say everyone would have rather us picked Appel, Bryant or Gray than Kohl Stewart. Not meant to be a knock on Stewart but the top 3 are just at another level talent wise.

[Lonestar]

Put it another way - the top tier is starting to take shape, and it looks like the Twins might be on the outside looking in.

That's one way of looking at it.

 

I was happy with the Kohl Stewart draft last year. Hopefully I am that happy this year.

 

Remember when Rodon was on a tier by himself. Now he is barely clinging to the first tier IMO.

 

I can (and will) make a case that Kyle Freeland is as good of a bet as Rodon. And he's trending the right way. I would take him over the thrower (Kolek). I would be be very disappointed if Freeland wasn't on the Twins board.

[gunnarthor]

Give it a week or two and Kyle Freeland's name will be coming out of everyone's mouth as a top 5 candidate. I am not too worried the top tier is just four players deep, there does not seem to be the same drop off in talent as there has been in previous drafts between the first two tiers. Last year, for instance, was a significant drop off from the top 3 to our pick at 4. I think it is safe to say everyone would have rather us picked Appel, Bryant or Gray than Kohl Stewart. Not meant to be a knock on Stewart but the top 3 are just at another level talent wise.

 

Stewart was much farther away but some scouts liked him more than Appel and Gray. I don't think it was a "significant drop." (And BA ranked Appel 39 and Stewart 52. Stewart might actually have a bit higher ceiling).

[cmb0252]

Several of you are significantly higher on Freeland then me. Has solid stuff but no 70 grade pitch I would want from a college pitcher.

[Vervehound]

Here is the exact quote:

"He looks like a solid back-end starter to me," an AL West scout said. There's nothing wrong with that, but if you saw him over the summer you'd be disappointed with that prognosis. The slider/curve just isn't an out pitch like it was in the Cape Cod League, and without that, I don't see a guy worth a top ten pick."

Personally I'm still a huge fan of his. If he can find his breaking ball I think he is a solid #2 starter. Crawford is releasing his new draft board tomorrow so it should be interesting where he ranks Hoffman. Once it is up I will post it here. Also, this week or next week mlb.com is supposedly updating their draft board.

 

hoffman has had performance questions each spring and then gone on to blow people away during the summer. that's not an endorsement. he's an uber athletic guy with great arm strength who has everything riding on developing his arsenal so if he hasn't been able to do it yet....

 

mark appel is a similar case study: he was a guy with the arm strength and build of a hoffman who had performance questions. his freshman and sophomore stats were decent but not great and then he put it together his junior year and solidified his status. personally, i'd rather have nola than any other college pitcher not named rodon.

[Vervehound]

...and i doubt the twins would pop him at no.5 but bradley zimmer should start generating that kind of buzz.

[Lonestar]

Several of you are significantly higher on Freeland then me. Has solid stuff but no 70 grade pitch I would want from a college pitcher.

I am becoming a Kyle Freeland fanboy. Let us compare him to Carlos Rodon.

 

Rodon has a four-seam fastball with plus velocity. But can you say that Rodon has plus command of his fastball this year? All three ofFreeland’s fastball components (velocity, life and command) are at least plus (orwere in his last two outings). And that is true of his two-seamer as well as the four-seamer.

 

Freeland pitches off his fastball. Rodon pitches off his slider. And his slider is a plus-plus pitch. Freeland’s slider is considered a plus pitch, flashing a grade higher. In general, a front-line MLB starter has to pitch off his fastball.

 

Both have curves and change-ups that are works in progress.

 

Rodon has a impressive body of work over the last two years,but concerns are emerging this year over his velocity, command, and ability tohandle adversity. Freeland faces a weaker college schedule, but he excelled since his breakout in last summer’s Cape Cod League.

 

With his command, control, and 5-pitch mix, Freeland is much more efficient than Rodon. Efficiency isa good thing if he can maintain as he faces more advanced competition. It also means he has had less pitcher abuse.

 

At 6’3” and 234 pounds, Rodon offers no physical projection. At 6’4” and 195, Freeland might have some physical projectability left. And he is certainly more athletic.

 

Freeland has a clean bill of health whereas Rodon has had some back problems.

 

Last, but not least in a race this close, Rodon’s advisor is Scott Boras. Then again, I don’t know who Freeland’s advisor is. Freeland will likely be cheaper.

[Twins Twerp]

I still think Hoffman would be great at #5. He is super athletic. Just last week McDaniel was talking about him still being in the convo for 1-1. Now that may not be the case after his last two starts, but the guy does throw mid 90's heat and plays for a terrible team. He went through 4 catchers in first 6 weeks. Get him here, teach him a change, and we are talking a #2 minimum maybe #1 guy. I would be bummed if the draft went:

 

Aiken, Kolek, Rodon, Hoffman in some sort of order. Leaving with Jackson, who I am still not sold on as a top 5 pick. In fact, I would rather have Nola, whose floor seems to be #4 and ceiling a #3...as well as being in the big leagues by late next summer.

[nicksaviking]

Freeland pitches in the low 90's from my understanding and he's beating up guys in the Missoui Valley conference. I'm guessing those strikeouts wouldn't translate as well in the SEC let alone professional ball. Without knowing a ton about him, he seems to be the kind of low ceiling, command pitcher we are all tired of the Twins running out there.

[Willihammer]

Well, BA mentioned Freeland in the same "pack" as Hoffman, Beede, Nola, Fedde, and Finnegan in their Apr 10 update. And then went on to rank him at no. 9.

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2014-draft-update-change-at-the-top-as-pitchers-dominate/

 

I also need to learn more about him.

[Lonestar]

I agree we need to learn more. That's why I said he should be on the Twins' board.

 

Freeland pitches in the low 90's from my understanding

His velocities are not unlike Rodon's this year. They are considered plus, especially for the two-seamer. To that you add plus movement and plus-plus command. And deception. And two very different fastballs coming out of the same delivery.

 

he's beating up guys in the Missoui Valley conference. I'm guessing those strikeouts wouldn't translate as well in the SEC let alone professional ball.

That's true. But he pitched very well in Cape Cod League where Hoffman gets all of his cred. The difference is that Freeland has carried it over to this year.

 

Without knowing a ton about him, he seems to be the kind of low ceiling, command pitcher we are all tired of the Twins running out there.

For years it seemed the Twins were going after the next Radke. But Radke did not have the Freeland's movement or velocity (both plus). He surely didn't have the two-seamer. Nor did he have Freeland's plus slider. Radke did have the plus change-up. Freeland's change and curve are works in progress, but they are progressing.

 

Could Freeland be Radke or Scott Baker without the HR tendencies? I don't mean to suggest that that's his floor, but his floor is higher than Kolek's or Rodon's or Hoffman's, IMO. Could he be the next Clif Lee or a LH Doc Halladay? My point is that there is considerable ceiling there that's not just wishcasting.

[Lonestar]

FWIW

 

Aaron Fitt: I think that is the takeaway. If the draft was today, I’d say Rodon, Nola, Hoffman, Beede. Nola has out-performed them all by a wide margin, and I have a feeling he’s got a chance to sneak up into the top 5 picks. Right now, Kyle Freeland might be ahead of a couple of those guys; I could see him jumping into the top 5 too. And I still see Finnegan in that group too.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-baseball-week-9-chat-with-aaron-fitt/

[cmb0252]

I still think Hoffman would be great at #5. He is super athletic. Just last week McDaniel was talking about him still being in the convo for 1-1. Now that may not be the case after his last two starts, but the guy does throw mid 90's heat and plays for a terrible team. He went through 4 catchers in first 6 weeks. Get him here, teach him a change, and we are talking a #2 minimum maybe #1 guy. I would be bummed if the draft went:

 

Aiken, Kolek, Rodon, Hoffman in some sort of order. Leaving with Jackson, who I am still not sold on as a top 5 pick. In fact, I would rather have Nola, whose floor seems to be #4 and ceiling a #3...as well as being in the big leagues by late next summer.

 

Ceiling of a #3 at the number 5 pick just isn't good enough for me. Also, while he has been a beast some scouts worry about his size/delivery. Before the year people were talking about him might having to move to the pen. I much rather draft a middle of the order potential bat in Jackson.

[the_youngster]

Three high schoolers that I think are good fits for the Twins in the second round (if they last) are Killer's grandson Grant Hockin (a solid and upward trending pitcher with a pretty sound delivery and build), Keaton McKinney (great changeup), and shortstop Cole Tucker (also upward trending and a new favorite of mine due to his contact ability and good chance at sticking at SS).

[cmb0252]

FWIW

 

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-baseball-week-9-chat-with-aaron-fitt/

 

BA is definitely higher on Freeland then most. He is a solid pitching prospect but he isn't in my personal top 10. If he had one 70+ pitch we could talk. Just look at how well Wacha has done with only two pitches because his change up is a 70-80 grade pitch depending on the day. Rodon's slider is a 70 on a bad day.

[cmb0252]

Three high schoolers that I think are good fits for the Twins in the second round (if they last) are Killer's grandson Grant Hockin (a solid and upward trending pitcher with a pretty sound delivery and build), Keaton McKinney (great changeup), and shortstop Cole Tucker (also upward trending and a new favorite of mine due to his contact ability and good chance at sticking at SS).

 

Those are some solid names. I'm a big fan of HS LHPs Mac Marshall and Foster Griffin. Both could be long gone by the second round though.

 

Two college guys that interest me are Luke Weaver and Derek Fisher. Both were potential top 15 picks but have seen their stock's nose dive, Weaver for performance and Fisher from injuries, who can slide to the second round. When Jeremy did his first board he had the Twins hot and heavy on Weaver. Could be this years Ryan Eades.

[the_youngster]

Those are some solid names. I'm a big fan of HS LHPs Mac Marshall and Foster Griffin. Both could be long gone by the second round though.

 

Two college guys that interest me are Luke Weaver and Derek Fisher. Both were potential top 15 picks but have seen their stock's nose dive, Weaver for performance and Fisher from injuries, who can slide to the second round. When Jeremy did his first board he had the Twins hot and heavy on Weaver. Could be this years Ryan Eades.

 

I also am a big fan of Marshall, but in my first mock through round 2 (first 69 picks) I predicted him to the Marlins at 36. I do feel that the second round is a good spot to try and get one of these fringe first round high schoolers. I also like Jacob Bukauskus, another RHP with a plus fastball and is receiving some high praise recently.

[cmb0252]

Crawford's new draft board is up:

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/04/the-board-2014-volume-iii/