2014 MLB Draft Thread

[gunnarthor]

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23277

 

Scout review of Aiken (and others) "We are targeting a college pitcher with our first round pick, but Aiken would have been one of the exceptions for us. Now that he can hit a 7 (97 MPH) on the gun, there's just no chance he falls to us. Honestly, I'm not sure how he falls out of the top few picks now. What isn't there to like? You didn't need a radar gun to fall in love with him before, but now he's the complete package."

[cmb0252]

So, the Fischer thing could be helpful to the Twins in a couple ways. 1) Maybe he falls to us! 2) Maybe Miami, being cheap and having 4 picks in the top 40 or so, goes underslot at 2 (say local arm Toussaint) to save money for overslot guys like Fisher, leaving one more high end guy for us at #5.

 

While I could see Fisher falling to us kind of like how Austin Wilson fell to the Dbacks at #49, I can't see Marlins skipping on big time talent at #2. When you pick that high you can get a discount on even top talent like the Rockies got with Gray last year.

[cmb0252]

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23277

 

Scout review of Aiken (and others) "We are targeting a college pitcher with our first round pick, but Aiken would have been one of the exceptions for us. Now that he can hit a 7 (97 MPH) on the gun, there's just no chance he falls to us. Honestly, I'm not sure how he falls out of the top few picks now. What isn't there to like? You didn't need a radar gun to fall in love with him before, but now he's the complete package."

 

Nice link. Thanks for the quote.

[cmb0252]

John Manuels draft questions:

 

 

• Is Aaron Nola going to be the quickest player from this draft to reach the big leagues
  

 

John Manuel: Hi gang. Thanks for the questions. Nola's a good answer. A healthy, peak version of Carlos Rodon would also not need much time in the minors, though he probably could use a few months to just not throw his slider and work on basics like locating his fastball better and trusting his changeup more.

 

• Phillies have their highest pick in a long, long time (at #7). I know they are always ALWAYS associated with the high risk tool heavy HS position player but I'm thinking this year they go pitcher. Thoughts?
  

John Manuel: Highest pick since 2001, when they took Gavin Floyd. Still a decent amount of the same decision-makers with the Phils, too; I believe Marti Wolever, their current scouting director, was national crosschecker that year. All our info is that scouts expect most of the top 10 picks to be pitchers, but there's a lot of talk about Nick Gordon, the Orlando SS, going in the first 5-7 picks. That's a possibility for the toolsy HS position player, even though they just took J.P. Crawford last year. If Alex Jackson were available, I could see him here too, but I don't see any other HS hitters being worthy of the No. 7 pick at this time. I'll also throw out that the Phillies drafted LHP Kyle Freeland out of a Denver high school.

 

• What are your impressions of Touki Toussaint so far this season and an early guess of where he goes in the draft?
  

John Manuel: We saw Touki up close & personal at NHSI, and he pitched well considering the cold, fairly blustery conditions. He secondary stuff has been better this year, both the breaking ball and the changeup, which stood out at NHSI. I happened to talk to the home-plate ump who had that start, and he thought Touki was throwing a split-finger pitch. He was wrong; that was just his changeup, but that's how much tumble it had. He's had some starts where scouts have praised his improved strike-throwing ability as well. He just hasn't done it all together yet, and he's seen as a higher-risk pick. I see him going in the 11-15 range, to a team like Toronto or San Francisco.

 

• Hey Guys, if Rodon's stock slips, is there still a guy out there strong enough to knock him down from his potential #1 slot? Even if he has an average year, his prior 2 years make him tough to beat. Thoughts? Thanks, Greg
  

John Manuel: There's no if; Rodon's stock has slipped. He just hasn't been as explosive this year. We believe Brady Aiken and Tyler Kolek have nudged past him on this draft board, and if it weren't for those two prior years, Rodon likely would rank lower. I've just had too many scouts tell me they have top men, as Indians Jones fans would say, running back in to see Rodon this time of year because he may be available after the top pick or two, whereas early in the season, scouts were rushing in to see him to "do their due diligence," thinking he would go 1 or 2 and be off the board and they wouldn't have to worry about seeing him again. Maybe you didn't get a chance to view the list. It's here: http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2014-draft-update-change-at-the-top-as-pitchers-dominate/

 

• Does Aiken have more potential than Rodon after Carlos' recent back to earth performances?
  

John Manuel: He has plenty of potential; not sure he has more if you believe in Rodon's knack for pitching and strike-throwing ability. His delivery just makes it a lot harder for him, at this time, to throw quality fastball strikes. If you believe you can get him doing that on a consistent basis, I believe his pitches have higher grades than Aiken. But Aiken has precocious fastball command, impressive work ethic ... similar stuff, the body has gotten better and better pitchability.

 

• Any inclination towards where the ChiSox are leaning with #3? Heard Hoffman plenty, but any chance they break the trend and go with a prep arm in Aiken/Kolek?
  

John Manuel: I haven't really started trying to match up players with teams yet. I know the White Sox love athleticism in their pitchers, and I know they have been here in NC a lot this spring due to Rodon, Hoffman and Trea Turner, so if they took any one of those three guys, it wouldn't surprise me. I think they would prefer Rodon over Hoffman. If you think a pitcher needs a mechanical tweak, Don Cooper and the White Sox want you.

 

• Comp Gordon with another Florida prep SS from a few years ago Lindor. Who rates ahead of who in power/ave/speed/defense/arm?
  

John Manuel: That's not fair to Nick Gordon. Scouts like Nick Gordon, and he plays shortstop, but I haven't spoken to anyone who likes him more than Lindor. He just happens to be in a draft class without shortstops. Lindor was the 8th overall pick in a draft where four of the guys picked ahead of him already have played in the major leagues.

 

• Is Beede a future ace or is he closer to a #2 pitcher? Is there a MLB pitcher that he resembles?
  

John Manuel: Feels like more of a No. 3 type, an A.J. Burnett type in that he has front-line stuff without No. 1 or No. 2 command. I was stunned to learn that his start last Friday at Tennessee was the first time he's gone 8 innings in three seasons. He was SEC pitcher of the year last year and still never was efficient enough to go more than 7 innings. His control has improved this year but he doesn't have front-of-the-rotation command.

 

• For position players, does Alex Jackson have the best chance to be an impact major leaguer? If not, who does?
  
• Yes, that's why he is the top-ranked position player on our list. Scouts seem to be doubting Trea Turner's ability to make an offensive impact; I'm a Turner believer, but his swing is long and that hampers the scouting grades for his bat. His swing probably needs to change, according to the scouts we've talked to. Jacob Gatewood and Michael Gettys have that impact potential but their bats have been iffy for a while. Monte Harrison would be next for his athleticism. I like the college hitters in this draft more as solid regulars rather than as stars, but the whole industry missed on Paul Goldschmidt, so maybe there's a Goldschmidt in here too.
  
• 
  
  • Do any of the HS pitchers have clear advantages over Grant Holmes?
    

  John Manuel: Aiken and Kolek do; they have taller, better frames, Aiken is lefthanded and throws more quality strikes, and Kolek throws 100 or better. He's a bigger, better Holmes in many ways. I like Grant Holmes, always have loved the mini-fro, as well as the stuff. Touki Toussaint vs. Holmes is a tough one; I think Holmes is more conventional, Touki offers more risk, but Touki's long arms, athleticism and frame are more typical of what scouts look for than Holmes, who is maybe 6-1 (6-8 with the 'fro for you Fletch fans).

   

  [*]These were only top 5-10 prospect questions. More here:

  [*]http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1397146199

[cmb0252]

BA top 50 draft prospects break down:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2014-draft-update-change-at-the-top-as-pitchers-dominate/

[maxisagod]

BA top 50 draft prospects break down:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2014-draft-update-change-at-the-top-as-pitchers-dominate/

 

I'm disappointed that not many of the hitters have had good springs, I like Jackson, but wish there were more players to compare him too, I still feel Gordon, Zimmer, and Turner are reaches at Five. With 3 college pitchers and 2 high school pitchers rising to the top tier, I think the Twins will have a couple good choices when their name is called.

[Willihammer]

BA's first half writeup.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/weekend-preview-midseason-report-april-11-13/

 

I am intrigued by Reed. Lefthanded, 2 way talent. His numbers are huge on both sides of the ball. Really nice looking swing IMO

 

[video=youtube;UF6puff06rM]

[twinsin17]

Here is a chart comparing senior year hitting stats of Clint Frazier and Alex Jackson. It goes without saying this is not an apples to apples comp as they field different positions and have very different physical attributes and projections. As hitters, however, both are known for elite bat speed and aggressive approaches. If anything else it is an interesting comparison of pure hitting stats:

 

[TABLE]

Player

GP

[TD=width: 45, bgcolor: #808080]AVG[/TD]

[TD=width: 32, bgcolor: #808080]PA[/TD]

[TD=width: 31, bgcolor: #808080]AB[/TD]

[TD=width: 31, bgcolor: #808080]R[/TD]

[TD=width: 31, bgcolor: #808080]H[/TD]

[TD=width: 31, bgcolor: #808080]RBI[/TD]

[TD=width: 31, bgcolor: #808080]2B[/TD]

[TD=width: 31, bgcolor: #808080]3B[/TD]

[TD=width: 31, bgcolor: #808080]HR[/TD]

[TD=width: 31, bgcolor: #808080]BB[/TD]

[TD=width: 62, bgcolor: #808080]BB%[/TD]

[TD=width: 28, bgcolor: #808080]K[/TD]

[TD=width: 50, bgcolor: #808080]K%[/TD]

[TD=width: 45, bgcolor: #808080]OBP[/TD]

[TD=width: 45, bgcolor: #808080]SLG[/TD]

[TD=width: 45, bgcolor: #808080]OPS[/TD]

Frazier

32

0.485

114

97

56

47

45

4

4

17

17

14.91%

8

7.02%

0.561

1.134

1.695

Jackson

13

0.436

54

39

19

17

16

3

1

7

10

18.52%

4

7.41%

0.593

1.102

1.696

Projected

32

0.436

133

0

47

42

40

8

3

17

25

18.52%

10

7.41%

0.593

1.102

1.696

[/TABLE]

 

From a power perspective their stats are nearly identical with Jackson earning a slight edge in pitch selection as he has a higher walk rate. What makes me excited about Jackson that Frazier lacks is physical projection. He is a solid 6'2" 215 lb 18 year old who will likely add 10-20 lbs before reaching the bigs. If he is available at 5 it would be hard to pass on an opportunity to add a legit 30+ homer potential bat to our system. His current power is big and his future power could be elite. I say if Rodon/Aiken/Kolek are gone and Jackson is available we should take him, move him to the OF and have him focus his time on maximizing his hitting potential instead of learning to call games at the big league level.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

FWIW, Carlos Rodon looked like his old self yesterday. But he also the 134 pitches, so there's that.

[Lonestar]

LHP Kyle Freeland has plenty helium. Great control. Solid 4 pitch mix. Or 5, if you differentiate between 4-seam FB and 2-seamer.

 

All three of Freeland’s fastball components (velocity, life and command) were at least plus. Unlike many college starters, he showed the ability to get swings and misses with his fastball, producing six fastball whiffs on the day. His fastball sat 91-93 mph and touched 94-95, and he held that velocity throughout his nine innings and 97 pitches. Using both a two-seamer and four-seamer, Freeland showed varied fastball movement in every direction, featuring explosive cut and glove-side run on his four-seamer and arm-side run on his two-seamer. He produces downhill plane and sink, pitching in the lower half of the zone on both outer-thirds of the plate. Freeland, who works from the far third-base side of the rubber, creates deception in his delivery, and the ball jumps out of his hand. His fastball was very loud, as his high spin rate produced an audible cutting through the air.

 

Keep reading.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/game-report-evansvilles-kyle-freeland/

 

Hoffman has had livelier stuff than Rodon but gets hit as well, and both have fallen back to the college-pitcher pack, with Southeastern Conference righthanders Tyler Beede (Vanderbilt) and Aaron Nola (Louisiana State), UNLV righty Erick Fedde and lefties Brandon Finnegan (Texas Christian) and Kyle Freeland (Evansville) closing the gap.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2014-draft-update-change-at-the-top-as-pitchers-dominate/

 

Check his latest box score against Wichita State from last night after all of those nice things were written.

http://www.gopurpleaces.com/boxscore.aspx?path=baseball&id=5785

 

But then again KLaw thinks he will be a reliever.

[cmb0252]

April 11th run down by mlbdraftinsider.com. Notes on Rodon, Beede, Aiken, Kolek, and HS bats.

 

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/04/the-rundown-april-11/

[cmb0252]

FWIW, Carlos Rodon looked like his old self yesterday. But he also the 134 pitches, so there's that.

 

Reports had his fastball hitting 98 at least twice.

[Willihammer]

Here are a few of the stats Mr.Crawford says some teams use (while some don't).

 

1. Strike out to walk rate for pitchers. An NL scout had this to say:

 

“There are not many kids in this class who can miss bats like [beede or Toussaint], but if you don’t at least a 2-1 strikeout to walk ratio, then I’m not sure you’re worth a first-round pick."

 

In that respect Freeland is leading the pack- 15:1

Nola is up there too - 6.5:1

Beede- 2.8:1

Rodon- 3.3:1

Hoffman- 2.9:1

Newcomb- 2.5:1

Reed- 2.5:1

[cmb0252]

Here is a chart comparing senior year hitting stats of Clint Frazier and Alex Jackson. It goes without saying this is not an apples to apples comp as they field different positions and have very different physical attributes and projections. As hitters, however, both are known for elite bat speed and aggressive approaches. If anything else it is an interesting comparison of pure hitting stats:

 

[TABLE]

Player

GP

AVG

[TD=width: 32, bgcolor: #808080]PA[/TD]

[TD=width: 31, bgcolor: #808080]AB[/TD]

[TD=width: 31, bgcolor: #808080]R[/TD]

[TD=width: 31, bgcolor: #808080]H[/TD]

[TD=width: 31, bgcolor: #808080]RBI[/TD]

[TD=width: 31, bgcolor: #808080]2B[/TD]

[TD=width: 31, bgcolor: #808080]3B[/TD]

[TD=width: 31, bgcolor: #808080]HR[/TD]

[TD=width: 31, bgcolor: #808080]BB[/TD]

[TD=width: 62, bgcolor: #808080]BB%[/TD]

[TD=width: 28, bgcolor: #808080]K[/TD]

[TD=width: 50, bgcolor: #808080]K%[/TD]

[TD=width: 45, bgcolor: #808080]OBP[/TD]

[TD=width: 45, bgcolor: #808080]SLG[/TD]

[TD=width: 45, bgcolor: #808080]OPS[/TD]

Frazier

32

0.485

114

97

56

47

45

4

4

17

17

14.91%

8

7.02%

0.561

1.134

1.695

Jackson

13

0.436

54

39

19

17

16

3

1

7

10

18.52%

4

7.41%

0.593

1.102

1.696

Projected

32

0.436

133

0

47

42

40

8

3

17

25

18.52%

10

7.41%

0.593

1.102

1.696

[/TABLE]

 

From a power perspective their stats are nearly identical with Jackson earning a slight edge in pitch selection as he has a higher walk rate. What makes me excited about Jackson that Frazier lacks is physical projection. He is a solid 6'2" 215 lb 18 year old who will likely add 10-20 lbs before reaching the bigs. If he is available at 5 it would be hard to pass on an opportunity to add a legit 30+ homer potential bat to our system. His current power is big and his future power could be elite. I say if Rodon/Aiken/Kolek are gone and Jackson is available we should take him, move him to the OF and have him focus his time on maximizing his hitting potential instead of learning to call games at the big league level.

 

Jackson hit 2 HRs on Wednesday. Definitely has big power potential with an elite hit tool to match. At the start of the year I wasn't as high on him as most but I'm a huge fan of his now. Definitely wouldn't mind him falling to the Twins at 5.

[cmb0252]

Notes, insider, on college relief pitching prospects Nick Burdi, Michael Cederoth, and Kevin Tapina from Crawford. One scout suggests Burdi won't make it to the second round:

 

"For me, Burdi is a first-round talent," an NL West scout said. "Someone might be tempted to make him a starter, but I just don't think he has the command and the delivery requires too much effort. Still, he's going to miss bats like crazy, and I think he can get left and right-handed batters out with no problem, which makes him a future closer."

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1507

[cmb0252]

In that respect Freeland is leading the pack- 15:1

Nola is up there too - 6.5:1

Beede- 2.8:1

Rodon- 3.3:1

Hoffman- 2.9:1

Newcomb- 2.5:1

Reed- 2.5:1

 

While Reed has pitched well this year he isn't going to pitch in the bigs with his bat.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm really high on Gatewood.

But, that said, I think there will be better options at 5.

This draft is pretty loaded, IMO, the Twins better not miss at 5.

[twinsin17]

Have we overlooked junior LHP Kyle Freeland as a potential pick at 5? He has absolutely dominated inferior competition in the Missouri Valley Conference this year and leads D1 baseball in Ks and K/Walk ratio. Reports say he has grown to 6'4" 190 lbs and he has excellent command of a 94 mph fastball with movement and strong secondary stuff. It seems he has more helium than any other college starter and I would expect the next round of mocks to project this. I am very curious on how the Twins view him.

[the_youngster]

Thus far my hypothesizing has the first 11 picks going:

 

 

 

• Astros-Brady Aiken
  
• Marlins-Tyler Kolek
  
• White sox-Alex Jackson
  
• Cubs-Carlos Rodon
  
• Twins-Tyler Beede
  
• Mariners-Jeff Hoffman
  
• Phillies-Nick Gordon
  
• Rockies-Grant Holmes
  
• Blue Jays-Kyle Freeland
  
• Mets-Bradley Zimmer
  
• Blue Jays-Touki Toussaint
  

 

Touki Toussaint seems to be a good fit for the Jays and their #9 or #11 pick. Can afford to take the risk and try to get him away from Vanderbilt. Things are fluent, but as of right now this is how I see it.

[tobi0040]

Thus far my hypothesizing has the first 11 picks going:

 

 

 

• Astros-Brady Aiken
  
• Marlins-Tyler Kolek
  
• White sox-Alex Jackson
  
• Cubs-Carlos Rodon
  
• Twins-Tyler Beede
  
• Mariners-Jeff Hoffman
  
• Phillies-Nick Gordon
  
• Rockies-Grant Holmes
  
• Blue Jays-Kyle Freeland
  
• Mets-Bradley Zimmer
  
• Blue Jays-Touki Toussaint
  

 

Touki Toussaint seems to be a good fit for the Jays and their #9 or #11 pick. Can afford to take the risk and try to get him away from Vanderbilt. Things are fluent, but as of right now this is how I see it.

 

I would guess we take Hoffman over Beede. Beede has had some control issues

[twinsin17]

Thus far my hypothesizing has the first 11 picks going:

 

 

 

• Astros-Brady Aiken
  
• Marlins-Tyler Kolek
  
• White sox-Alex Jackson
  
• Cubs-Carlos Rodon
  
• Twins-Tyler Beede
  
• Mariners-Jeff Hoffman
  
• Phillies-Nick Gordon
  
• Rockies-Grant Holmes
  
• Blue Jays-Kyle Freeland
  
• Mets-Bradley Zimmer
  
• Blue Jays-Touki Toussaint
  

 

Touki Toussaint seems to be a good fit for the Jays and their #9 or #11 pick. Can afford to take the risk and try to get him away from Vanderbilt. Things are fluent, but as of right now this is how I see it.

 

I think this is a pretty good looking mock. Personally I prefer Hoffman over Beede and Alex Jackson over both of them. Kyle Freeland is sneaking up there as well...

[gunnarthor]

I would guess we take Hoffman over Beede. Beede has had some control issues

 

Agreed. Right now I think I'm starting to lean toward Jackson falling to us but I think I have the guys ranked like this:

Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, Jackson, Hoffman, Beede.

[nicksaviking]

I would guess we take Hoffman over Beede. Beede has had some control issues

 

I make take Hoffman over Rodon. Maybe.

[tobi0040]

Agreed. Right now I think I'm starting to lean toward Jackson falling to us but I think I have the guys ranked like this:

Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, Jackson, Hoffman, Beede.

 

It looks like the three that will be gone are Aiken, Rodon, and Kolek. I would be pretty surprised if we have a shot. I think the mix at #5 is Hoffman, Beede, Jackson, and maybe one of the SS.

 

My biggest fear at this point is one of the pitchers in front of us gets injured (elbow, shoulder, forearm which drops velocity, hip like Mannaea last year). Then the talent all moves up a pick.

[nicksaviking]

It looks like the three that will be gone are Aiken, Rodon, and Kolek. I would be pretty surprised if we have a shot. I think the mix at #5 is Hoffman, Beede, Jackson, and maybe one of the SS.

 

My biggest fear at this point is one of the pitchers in front of us gets injured (elbow, shoulder, forearm which drops velocity, hip like Mannaea last year). Then the talent all moves up a pick.

 

I worry about that also, but hopefully Gatewood, Gordon, Holmes, Toussaint and Feeland's increased stature will offset any declines.

[tobi0040]

I make take Hoffman over Rodon. Maybe.

 

If they both have very good stuff and one has control question marks and one doesn't, I think you take the one without.

 

I am guessing we won't be drafting at #5 next year and this is a loaded draft. So it is a pretty important pick.

[Willihammer]

I realize he's nobody's pick at 5 but I can't help wondering if Chavis is a hidden gem.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/draft-tracker-april-11/

 

“I saw him take batting practices three times and I am not going back because there is nothing else to see in BP to impress me,” a National League scout said. “He hit 15 of 30 swings either in the road or over the road at Sprayberry. His eighth home run in BP hit the tower in deep right field, he ricocheted off the light tower. He went out three times to straight-away center field and bounced three over in right center field.”

“Then in the game the pitcher threw a breaking ball to the outside part of the plate and he hit a home run off the right-field scoreboard,” the scout said. “He singled back over the shortstop’s head and nearly took the pitcher’s glove off. He is so strong in his hands and wrists.”

 

 

And then this:

 

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1392968.html

 

The interesting angle on Chavis is what position he plays. Talking with some scouts at the game, I asked the group if they thought he could catch. A few of them said their club had already asked Chavis if he was open to it and he said yes (scouts love Chavis makeup, so this doesn't surprise me), but admitted he had barely tried it before. Other scouts hadn't considered it and said they thought it could work, as the quick feet, plus arm and frame all fit the typical catcher profile. One expressed concern that his hands might not be good enough, but everyone agreed there's no way to before the draft--and that Chavis will definitely put on the gear at some private pre-draft workouts so teams can see if this is a viable option. In this way, he's similar to the Giants 2013 1st rounder, Florida prep infielder Christian Arroyo.

[Siehbiscuit]

The fact that Beede is a little wild is what intrigues me. He let's it go and is anti-The Twins Way. Beede WANTS to strike people out and that is why he is a top 5'er for me.

[tobi0040]

The fact that Beede is a little wild is what intrigues me. He let's it go and is anti-The Twins Way. Beede WANTS to strike people out and that is why he is a top 5'er for me.

 

2012 - 4.52 ERA, 71 IP, 68 K, .287 BA against. 3.95 BB per 9.

 

 

2013 - 2.10 ERA, 94 IP, 97 K, .179 BA against, 5.26 BB per 9 (not a typo).

 

 

2014 - 2.81 ERA, 48 IP, 52 K, .175 BA against, 3.0 BB per 9.

 

I hope he manages his control enough so that someone in front of us takes him. This has us changing his delivery to gain better control written all over it.

[Lonestar]

You're missing Beede's latest start against Texas A&M 5IP 4K 4BB

Unless Beede turns it around, I can see him falling toToronto. Again. They would need his permission to draft him since they draftedhim in 2011. It could be that he falls past Toronto.