2014 MLB Draft Thread

[gunnarthor]

Darren Wolfson @DarrenWolfson

Now's a good time to look ahead to the June draft. Spoke w/ Mike Radcliff. #MNTwins down to 8 guys for 5th pick -- 5 or 6 of those pitchers.

 

I wonder if that is based on an assumption that a guy like Rodon or Kolek won't be there at #5?

[Willihammer]

A.J. Reed and Casey Gillaspie win the week 8 baseball america stat roundup.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-draft-prospects-stat-roundup-week-8-3/

 

Reed had 3 HRs (12), 3 doubles (8) against a Gator team that just won the season series against no. 1 FL state. 6'4, 240, LH hitter, 1B, batting .373/.500/.771 in 118 AB's on the year.

 

Gillaspie had 3 HRs (8) against Indiana State. First baseman, switch hitter. He's batting .402/.507/.692 in 117 ABs.

 

Both players are juniors

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I will be very surprised if we take anything other than a starting pitcher or SS. If we feel a guy is there that is hands down a better talent, we will take him. But if we grade out an OF slightly higher than a pitcher or SS, I think we take the SP or SS and I think that is the right approach.

 

Look at the Vikings. We don't have a QB. You need a QB to win. They almost never hit the FA market and if they do, 12-15 teams are after him. So if we grade out an LB slightly higher, should we take the LB? Seems crazy to me. Starting pitching and QB's are similar.

 

How did that turn out reaching for Ponder? Or Jake Locker for the Titian's? Or Gabbert for Jacksonville? In the 2011 NFL draft 12 players out of the first 16 taken have been to a pro bowl with some suggesting Nick Farley was snubbed last year. Dalton and Kaepernick were taken in the 2nd round. Don't reach.

 

The Twins are spending millions of dollars to scout players. They will have a board by draft day and will draft BPA regardless of franchise need. With the way the draft is shaping up it wouldn't be surprising if their first two picks are pitchers.

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It is doubtful in my eyes that 3 of the 8 are bats and if there are 3 bats it is safe to include Jackson, potentially Turner and likely not Gatewood. I value Gordon and Zimmer over both Turner and Gatewood.

 

I also have Gordon and Zimmer ahead of Turner/Gatewood. Just don't like what the scouting reports are saying. Several sources have downgraded Turner's speed from 80 to 60.

[cmb0252]

A.J. Reed and Casey Gillaspie win the week 8 baseball america stat roundup.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-draft-prospects-stat-roundup-week-8-3/

 

Reed had 3 HRs (12), 3 doubles (8) against a Gator team that just won the season series against no. 1 FL state. 6'4, 240, LH hitter, 1B, batting .373/.500/.771 in 118 AB's on the year.

 

Gillaspie had 3 HRs (8) against Indiana State. First baseman, switch hitter. He's batting .402/.507/.692 in 117 ABs.

 

Both players are juniors

 

Reed has also been a stud this year on the mound. He has worked himself into late first round discussion.

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From BA's J.J. Cooper's chat:

 

 

• How wide open is the field for #1 overall in the draft?
  

 

J.J. Cooper: Way wider open than it was when the season began. At this point there are a number of viable options at No. 1. In some way, you could say that's good news for the Astros, as it gives them some flexibility financially at the No. 1 pick, as opposed to what it looked like last fall when there was one clear No. 1 pick (Rodon) who was likely to be looking for at least the full No. 1 slot value and maybe more.

[InfraRen]

^Interesting. Should be a fun couple of months.

[chuchadoro]

I will be very surprised if we take anything other than a starting pitcher or SS. If we feel a guy is there that is hands down a better talent, we will take him. But if we grade out an OF slightly higher than a pitcher or SS, I think we take the SP or SS and I think that is the right approach.

 

Look at the Vikings. We don't have a QB. You need a QB to win. They almost never hit the FA market and if they do, 12-15 teams are after him. So if we grade out an LB slightly higher, should we take the LB? Seems crazy to me. Starting pitching and QB's are similar.

 

The NFL and MLB drafts are so different, I don't think there are many lessons to be gleaned by comparing the two. An NFL team can draft a handful of players that make an immediate impact on the team, an MLB team doesn't reap any rewards from a given draft for 3-6 years. It's almost impossible to project what a major league team's roster will look like that far in the future. Also, no baseball player can have the same impact on a game as a QB unless he is some sort of Walter Johnson/Babe Ruth hybrid. It's apples and oranges again.

 

It seems the positional value is already weighed into the current draft rankings. Pitchers are probably holding down 5 of the top 6 spots in consensus rankings right now. Turner and Gordon are flirting with the top 10 because they project to stick at SS, not for their bats. Circumstances could change but taking one of those two with the fifth pick would be a stretch right now. The Twins absolutely need to find a SS of the future and add more high-upside pitching talent. They can't force it, though. That's how you end up with Christian Ponder.

[tobi0040]

I also have Gordon and Zimmer ahead of Turner/Gatewood. Just don't like what the scouting reports are saying. Several sources have downgraded Turner's speed from 80 to 60.

 

 

Which one of his legs was amputated?

[tobi0040]

How did that turn out reaching for Ponder? Or Jake Locker for the Titian's? Or Gabbert for Jacksonville? In the 2011 NFL draft 12 players out of the first 16 taken have been to a pro bowl with some suggesting Nick Farley was snubbed last year. Dalton and Kaepernick were taken in the 2nd round. Don't reach.

 

The Twins are spending millions of dollars to scout players. They will have a board by draft day and will draft BPA regardless of franchise need. With the way the draft is shaping up it wouldn't be surprising if their first two picks are pitchers.

 

Most teams didn't have Ponder as a first rounder and we took him at 11 or 12. In this draft you have a ton of pitchers and a few short stops in the top 10.

 

Off topic......My neighbor kept pointing out Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson. So we looked at 25 years worth of data. A total of five QB's in rounds 2 or 3 were starting QB's for more than 5 years. Those two, and Favre, Plummer, and Brees. The number drafted was about 60 (8%). Of all the QB's taken in the top 10, the success rate was 50% during the same time period.

 

Just because something has happened before, does not make it likely.

 

Circling back to the Twins, I think we have less than an 8% chance of finding our SS through waiver pick ups. Almost none hit the FA market. The trend seems to be to sign these guys well before they hit the market, same with good young starting pitchers. When they become free agents, you get the chance to spend $200M on Max Scherzer, which we are not going to do. My point is we can't ignore these trends.

[Willihammer]

I will be very surprised if we take anything other than a starting pitcher or SS. If we feel a guy is there that is hands down a better talent, we will take him. But if we grade out an OF slightly higher than a pitcher or SS, I think we take the SP or SS and I think that is the right approach.

 

Look at the Vikings. We don't have a QB. You need a QB to win. They almost never hit the FA market and if they do, 12-15 teams are after him. So if we grade out an LB slightly higher, should we take the LB? Seems crazy to me. Starting pitching and QB's are similar.

 

I agree with this to a point. Good starting pitching can almost single handedly win games. But they aren't everyday players like quarterbacks so the comparison doesn't quite work.

 

IMO, one of the biggest benefits to drafting strikeout arms is that you can fit a few square pegs into round holes on defense if you have to, in order to supplement your lineup. Fewer balls in play, so poor defense won't cost you as badly. Maybe this is the impetus for NL teams like the Cards finding great pitchers all the time.

 

On the other hand, if you stock up on bats, you can get by playing matchups and using 13 man pitching staffs. More of an AL brand of baseball. You also need to have a manager whose able to leverage his arms and bend a few rules about bullpen roles, which may be easier said than done since players seem pretty territorial about that stuff.

 

Either way you want to do it, that will impact your positional adjustments and therefore your determination of BPA. As another poster said, prospects don't come with BPA stamped on their forehead.

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Which one of his legs was amputated?

 

Haha, just going by the reports. Law and J.J. Cooper reported last week that his speed might not be what we thought it was. On a different Turner note, he will be suspended his next game because of being ejected from the Clemson game.

 

Law also reported tonight that Aiken is dealing. Has hit 96 at least 6 times tonight.

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Darren Wolfson @DarrenWolfson

Now's a good time to look ahead to the June draft. Spoke w/ Mike Radcliff. #MNTwins down to 8 guys for 5th pick -- 5 or 6 of those pitchers.

 

If I had to guess they would be: Rodon, Aiken, Beede, Kolek, Hoffman, Holmes, Jackson, Gordon. Pretty talented bunch.

[tobi0040]

I agree with this to a point. Good starting pitching can almost single handedly win games. But they aren't everyday players like quarterbacks so the comparison doesn't quite work..

 

I have never quite understood the argument that a pitcher only pitches every five games, so therefore they are not as valuable as a position player. I know you were making the comp to a QB but the same "they don't play everyday" that you hear a lot was brought up.

 

I don't get it because while technically true, a pitcher has a much bigger influence on the game when they do play than a position player has on a daily basis. If 90% of the game is batter versus pitcher, a pitcher that goes 6 innings plays a large role in about 33% of the game. Versus being one in 18 position players. It is much more common to see a pitcher single handedly win or lose a game (8 IP, 1 ER or the flip-side, 3 IP, 6 ER).

[Willihammer]

I have never quite understood the argument that a pitcher only pitches every five games, so therefore they are not as valuable as a position player. I know you were making the comp to a QB but the same "they don't play everyday" that you hear a lot was brought up.

 

I don't get it because while technically true, a pitcher has a much bigger influence on the game when they do play than a position player has on a daily basis. If 90% of the game is batter versus pitcher, a pitcher that goes 6 innings plays a large role in about 33% of the game. Versus being one in 18 position players. It is much more common to see a pitcher single handedly win or lose a game (8 IP, 1 ER or the flip-side, 3 IP, 6 ER).

 

Look at it in the context of 25 man roster construction. A starting pitcher can't be platooned, can't come in to face a tough lefty, can't spell a RFer with a sore wrist, can't pinch hit, and can't fill in as a defensive sub. If we're lucky, maybe he can pinch run. So even if he provides 25 absolutely stellar starts per year, there are 147 games where he's completely useless. In addition to whatever lousy starts he gives that affect the loss column just as directly as the good starts affect the win column.

 

I'd like to think the Twins aren't just throwing their 25 man rosters together willy nilly. And Terry Ryan is on record saying he wants guys who don't get hurt, don't need to be platooned, don't need off days, presumably so that Gardy can have the liberty of pulling a shaky starter after 75 pitches or having two relievers warming up in case the opposition elects to PH a dangerous Jim Thome type bench bat in the late innings. AL brand baseball, in other words.

 

I just hope (wish?) everyone from the GM to the last guy in the bullpen is on the same page with that.

 

edit: to your point, I'd argue that maybe you're underestimating how often starting pitchers singlehandedly lose games. The position players are the ones who have to pick them up when that happens.

 

edit 2: Bert Blyleven. Even HoF Pitchers struggle to get to .500 when the position players don't score. Its a team game.

[Kwak]

A top SP isn't useless on the games he doesn't pitch. If said pitcher takes the ball every 5th game and pitches well and deep into his starts there is less need for relief pitchers. The bullpen is better rested and may even be shortened by one permitting an extra position player/hitter to be on the active roster. That extra position player allows more flexibility in the line-up, platoons, pinch-hitters, defensive replacement, or just plain rest. Then there is the emotional "pick-up" when the "ace" is pitching instead of the "journeyman".

[tobi0040]

Look at it in the context of 25 man roster construction. A starting pitcher can't be platooned, can't come in to face a tough lefty, can't spell a RFer with a sore wrist, can't pinch hit, and can't fill in as a defensive sub. If we're lucky, maybe he can pinch run. So even if he provides 25 absolutely stellar starts per year, there are 147 games where he's completely useless. In addition to whatever lousy starts he gives that affect the loss column just as directly as the good starts affect the win column.

 

I'd like to think the Twins aren't just throwing their 25 man rosters together willy nilly. And Terry Ryan is on record saying he wants guys who don't get hurt, don't need to be platooned, don't need off days, presumably so that Gardy can have the liberty of pulling a shaky starter after 75 pitches or having two relievers warming up in case the opposition elects to PH a dangerous Jim Thome type bench bat in the late innings. AL brand baseball, in other words.

 

I just hope (wish?) everyone from the GM to the last guy in the bullpen is on the same page with that.

 

edit: to your point, I'd argue that maybe you're underestimating how often starting pitchers singlehandedly lose games. The position players are the ones who have to pick them up when that happens.

 

edit 2: Bert Blyleven. Even HoF Pitchers struggle to get to .500 when the position players don't score. Its a team game.

 

I get that it is a team game. But in my example, a pitcher is in on 33% of the game when they pitch just six innings. A position player that plays every day factors into 5.5% of the plays. So if you adjust for the fact that a position player plays everyday they still don't get to the same level of importance of a starting pitcher. I understand that I am ignorning defense in this example, but again the position player factors into 5.5% of the balls in play and a competent fielding percentage suggests 19/20 of those plays will be made by almost anyone. I guess I am not trying to construct a graduate level paper here., but hopefully the point is clear.

 

Of the 8 teams in the playoffs last year, only four were top ten in runs scored (Boston, Oakland, STL, and Detroit). Six were top 10 in ERA (Oakland, STL, Pitt, LAD, Atlanta, and Detroit). It seems like teams with good pitchers, more than good lineups make it it to the post season.

 

Burt had 27 more wins than losses. I do understand if he had played for better franchises he would have won more games. But his career 3.30 ERA was not lights out for his era. In my opinion, longevity helped his case a ton. I am guessing a 3.30 ERA than is probaby similar to a 3.50 or 3.60 ERA now, which is a 1 or 2 starter. Johan Santana has a career 3.20 ERA and his win percentage is 64% versus Burt's 53%.

 

I didn't mean to under-estimate how often bad starts lose games. That is actually part of my argument of why you need to put more emphasis on a starting pitcher in the draft over an OF. Odds are, if we take a good starter, he will be taking the spot of a guy like Kevin Correia.

[gunnarthor]

I think this thread is getting a bit off topic so, with that in mind, I'll add to it. I believe I read an article that said, at the extreme end, a great hitter will be better than a great pitcher but, until you reach the extremes it doesn't really matter, value is value. But the other point was that it was easier for the great hitter to be consistently good over several seasons. Look at Verlander/Cabrera. Most would agree both are at the top of their positions and, over the last 5 years, Cabrera has about a 7 WAR advantage. Pitching can be fickle.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

While not a MN boy, here's someone semi-local:

 

http://www.news8000.com/sports/holmen-of-jeren-kendall-swinging-for-major-leagues/25387742

 

Daddy (Jeremey Kendall) made it as far as AA for the Phillies after attending college at Winona State a few (or more) years back.

[Willihammer]

Of the 8 teams in the playoffs last year, only four were top ten in runs scored (Boston, Oakland, STL, and Detroit). Six were top 10 in ERA (Oakland, STL, Pitt, LAD, Atlanta, and Detroit). It seems like teams with good pitchers, more than good lineups make it it to the post season.

 

Uh, that's just one postseason. And the Red Sox beat a Cardinals team that I think most would agree had the better starting pitching.

 

But the Red Sox had the highest regular season run differential. And that carried into the playoffs. Utimately, that's what matters most.

[Willihammer]

To put a final point on this, I'd say if the Twins are forced to decide between a pitcher and a bat who they value equally, then roll with the strength of their system - bats. JMO

[tobi0040]

Uh, that's just one postseason. And the Red Sox beat a Cardinals team that I think most would agree had the better starting pitching.

 

But the Red Sox had the highest regular season run differential. And that carried into the playoffs. Utimately, that's what matters most.

 

If you or someone wants to look over an extended period of time. I am fairly confident an average of the 8 teams in the playoffs will have finished closer to #1 in team ERA than in runs scored.

[Willihammer]

As it happens I do have an old file from a blog idea I abandoned. The data covers the years 1996-2011. If you'll accept Runs allowed as a proxy for ERA, the average RS-RA rankings are like this:

 

average RS ranking for LDS teams: 7.3

average RA ranking for LDS teams: 8.5

 

average RS ranking for LCS teams: 9.8

average RA ranking for LCS teams: 7.4

 

average RS ranking for WS teams: 9.4

average RA ranking for WS teams: 6.9

 

average RS ranking for WS winner: 9.1

average RA ranking for WS winner: 7.2

 

Well there you go. Finishing in the top 10 in pitching/defense would seem to be a better precursor to playoff success than finishing in the top 10 in offense.

[cmb0252]

BA released their new draft rankings but I don't pay for their site. They do mention that Aiken is their new #1 draft prospect and the top of the draft is dominated by pitchers. If anyone pays for the site and wants to share it would be appreciated. Also, they will have a free (I believe) chat today as well as Law. I will try to push as many Twins related questions forward.

[tobi0040]

BA released their new draft rankings but I don't pay for their site. They do mention that Aiken is their new #1 draft prospect and the top of the draft is dominated by pitchers. If anyone pays for the site and wants to share it would be appreciated. Also, they will have a free (I believe) chat today as well as Law. I will try to push as many Twins related questions forward.

 

Law is very high on Aiken. But he tends to have contrary views of guys at times, although I find him to be pretty smart.

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Law is very high on Aiken. But he tends to have contrary views of guys at times, although I find him to be pretty smart.

 

Law, Baseball America, and Crawford now have Aiken #1.

[cmb0252]

Keith Law chat draft questions:

Do you think Touki Toussaint goes top 15? You had him as a borderline second rounder in your first top 50 - has your opinion changed at all in the last 20 odd days?

Klaw (12:11 PM)

Yes, and yes. My opinion changed after the NHSI at Cary, where he was 93-94, throwing strikes, and had a better changeup. I think that dramatically boosted his stock within the industry - he could go as high as 9 (Toronto), I think.

 

What are your thoughts on LHP Kyle Freeland? Where can you see him going in the draft?

Klaw (12:14 PM)

I think he's a future reliever, but I know many scouts view him as a starter and are comparing him to Chris Sale. He'll go late first round, maybe in the teens.

 

If they draft were tomorrow how do you see the first 3 or 4 picks playing out?

Klaw (12:15 PM)

Aiken, Kolek, Hoffman, Rodon. I've heard the White Sox like Trea Turner more than most teams, but I wouldn't expect them to take him with every college arm still on the bboard

In terms of draft stock, how much of a setback is Derek Fisher's wrist injury?

Klaw (12:17 PM)

I think it knocks him out of the first round - but makes him a target for an over-slot deal for a team that can save money on its first pick and then picks again in the 30s.

 

Sounds like Rodon is not becoming a Prior or Strasburg like some people expected. Is something not panning out? Would you take him at 1:1?

Klaw (12:37 PM)

He was never a Prior or Strasburg; he was just well ahead of anyone else in this draft class. But he's backed up a little, while Aiken and Kolek both took big steps forward. I would draft players the way I ranked them here: http://klaw.me/1r5SiSk

 

If you were Rick Hahn, would you take Hoffman over Rodon (assuming Aiken and Kolek were already selected)?

Klaw (12:42 PM)

It depends on the cost, but if it's equal I'd take Rodon. Hoffman's a tremendous athlete with arm strength, but the secondary stuff isn't at all consistent and he needs a lot of work. Of course, Don Cooper will give him a cutter and he'll end up in the top 5 in Cy Young voting for 2016.

 

Following up: If Hoffman and Rodon were still on the board but the White Sox went with Turner, bad decision? Better long term upside?

Klaw (1:01 PM)

I'm really not a Turner believer - he's a 60 runner, not an 80 runner, and I don't think he stays at shortstop.

 

Turner really a 60 runner? I heard a 6.32 60 time and a way under 4 time to first. Both marks are comfortably 80's.

Klaw (1:04 PM)

4.20 every time I saw him last month. Better than last summer, still not 80.

 

I am hoping that Rodon slips to the Twins in this draft, would you place him at a higher prospect ranking than either Alex Meyer or Kohl Stewart?

Klaw (1:07 PM)

Last time Twins took a, uh, high-bonus guy like that in the first round was ... go ahead, I'll wait.

 

Why is Rodon high bonus? If he goes back to NCSU and has another bad year, he has no leverage. Could he really turn down $5M or whatever his slot would be?

Klaw (1:10 PM)

People said the same things about Mark Appel in 2012, how he had no leverage, he couldn't go back to school, and how did that work out?

[TRex]

If anyone pays for the site and wants to share it would be appreciated.

 

While the BA list is a ranking and not a 'predicted pick' list, #5 is Jeff Hoffman, RHP from ECU.

 

Without giving too much the order goes: LHP, RHP, LHP, C, RHP

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While the BA list is a ranking and not a 'predicted pick' list, #5 is Jeff Hoffman, RHP from ECU.

 

Without giving too much the order goes: LHP, RHP, LHP, C, RHP

 

Haha, thanks! Aiken, Kolek, Rodon, Jackson, Hoffman is a good top 5. I would take any of those at #5.

[gunnarthor]

So, the Fischer thing could be helpful to the Twins in a couple ways. 1) Maybe he falls to us! 2) Maybe Miami, being cheap and having 4 picks in the top 40 or so, goes underslot at 2 (say local arm Toussaint) to save money for overslot guys like Fisher, leaving one more high end guy for us at #5.