Claimed or not?

[stringer bell]

The Twins currently have about four players "on the bubble" for making the club this year who are out of options. By my count, Deduno, Diamond, Worley, and Parmelee are all out of options. Parmelee has a chance to make the club as the 25th guy and one or maybe two of the pitchers could go north (two if the Twins stash a starter in the bullpen).

 

I'll give my quick guess on each of the four and then open it up for discussion: Pamelee is still youngish (26 next week), demonstrated the ability to play both first and an outfield corner, has a first round pedigree, and hits lefty. He's had just over 600 plate appearances and hasn't hit well since a September audition in 2011. I think it is just more than 50% chance he would be claimed.

 

Deduno: He's 30, has quite an injury history, including shoulder surgery after the 2013 season, has shown the ability to induce weak contact, but also has historically had monumental control problems. Deduno had a good run in the 2013 season (ended by his shoulder injury) and has the calling card of unusual movement and break on his pitches. I think the injury history and age would scare off people and that Samuel would not be claimed. However, if memory serves, Deduno has been designated once already, so if he were DFAed, he could elect to be a free agent if unclaimed.

 

Worley: A pretty good pitcher for the Phils until his elbow acted up. Worley was dreadful for the Twins last year. He may or may not have been a mirage or maybe he will never be the same after his elbow woes. If he doesn't make the Twins rotation or get a consolation spot in the bullpen, I think someone would take a chance on his success from not that long ago.

 

Diamond: Quick, which current Twins pitcher had the best single-season qualifying ERA+ this decade? That's right--Diamond's 116 in 2012. Diamond will turn 28 at mid-season, throws lefty, but doesn't have anything resembling overpowering stuff. I think he would also be claimed because of fairly recent success.

 

It goes without saying the I am assuming decent success and no recurrence of injuries during Spring Training.

[johnnydakota]

After the WBC Slingin Sammy gets gobbled up the first 10 minutes ....but just my opinon

[PseudoSABR]

My guess: Worley in the rotation, Diamond in the pen, Deduno on the DL (and then rehabs as a reliever), Parm on the bench.

 

The Twins aren't close enough to competition that they should be giving up on any potential assets, even if there are better younger players who could replace them.

[ashbury]

Great thread topic, and I am not confident any of these would pass unclaimed.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I also think Diamond and Worley would be claimed but I just don't see room for both on the roster. If Gibson pitches great this spring, it would be wrong to send him to Rochester just to keep one of those guys around. We'll see. I get the sense that they are already planning for Deduno to live on and off the DL all year.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Of these four, I think Diamond is the most likely to be put on waivers, but even that is a slim chance. I think they find a way to keep them all. And your assumption that no one gets injured isn't a very good one; there is a good chance that one or more of these players will be rostered in place of an injured player. As noted, Deduno could start the season on the DL.

 

The team could also be creative in finding space in their bullpen; Pressly can be sent down, as could Thielbar. Complicating things may be the chance that Swarzak gets a shot at the rotation too. Maybe one if the bullpen guys is moved, or someone could get hurt there too.

 

The fifth player on this list is Colabello-does he have an option?

[Reider]

Deduno was fantastic in the WBC last year and was arguably the Twins' best starting pitcher last year, if you give consideration to his shoulder issue. His success is much more recent than Worely's or Diamonds. I'd be surprised if there was zero interest in him from other MLB teams.

[cmathewson]

I think they might be able to slip Escobar through. He's about the only one. Parmelee is like Restovich of old. If he doesn't make the team, he'd get claimed and passed around the league until he eventually finds a home in AAA. But I think they'll find room for him as a lefty bat off the bench. They likely only have room for two of the pitchers, unless Deduno has a setback in the spring. As it stands now, they can't him on the DL just to stash him. And according to The PiPress, he's healthy. If he's healthy, I can't see anybody beating him out. So it'll be down to Diamond and Worley. Maybe they can work out a trade if both are pitching well. Otherwise, one goes to the pen and the other goes away.

[Seth Stohs]

My opinion for likelihood to be claimed (Most Likely to Least Likely):

 

Scott Diamond, Sam Deduno, Vance Worley, Chris Parmelee.

[tobi0040]

I would flip Deduno and Diamond but agree with the rest. I do think they all get picked up though. Every one of the pitchers has had at least one good year in the last 2-3.

[nicksaviking]

I'd like to think that once spring training is in full swing and free agency is bascially done, the Twins will evaluate what they have and put all three of the listed pitchers along with Duensing and Swarzak on the trade block. Getting anything that doesn't require a 40-man spot for the above three starters would seem like a win, because I think all three get claimed, assuming full health by Deduno.

[PseudoSABR]

These things usually work themselves out, as it's hard to imagine on the pitchers that are out of options and those guaranteed a roster spot will stay healthy.

[Mike Sixel]

I hope they don't send Gibson down to keep a marginal older pitcher up here.....if he's ready this year, he should be up. If they lose a guy in the process, so be it. It's not like he's 22.....

 

I think Seth has it about right, frankly. Not sure why any team w/o 5 starters would pass on any of the pitchers. Not sure why anyone would claim Parmalee at this point.

[beckmt]

My feeling is that Parmalee goes away and possibly Diamond. Diamond might have some minor trade value and I would explore that now as I do not see him here by mid summer. Worley can work out of the pen and Deduno is too good to give up on.

[nicksaviking]

These things usually work themselves out, as it's hard to imagine on the pitchers that are out of options and those guaranteed a roster spot will stay healthy.

 

Well now we know who to blame when everyone starts to get hurt! We were all thinking it but the rest of us had the good sense not to bring it up so as not to jinx the rotation. Congratulations, another 90 loss season and all because of PseudoSABR.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Glad to hear Deduno is pretty much healthy -- I missed that. Not sure his style translates well into the bullpen so I don't think he's a candidate for the pen like Worley and Diamond might be. Also, it's a good sign that Worley has come to camp with a different mindset this year. Looking forward to seeing how this turns out.

[Shane Wahl]

I think they would all be claimed. I also think the Twins should find a way to keep all of them (meaning that one pitcher is DLed--could be one of the other starting four too). Deduno grabs the 5th spot in the rotation and either Diamond or Worley works out of the 'pen. I can't imagine any of the three being around in 2015, however. Parmelee has a problem, and the Twins have to find some way to get anything about minimal value back in a trade. He will get almost no time at first base and has Willingham, Arcia, Presley, and Kubel to contend with for corner OF/DH/bench spot. He would help his chances by demonstrating the ability to play a quality LF.

[Major League Ready]

I think a healthy Deduno gets claimed in a New York Minute. There is no way I can see them risking him. If he is healthy, Deduno is easily our 2^nd best SP.

 

I would like to see Gibson up but I would not sacrifice assets to do so. History suggests that opportunity will present itself soon enough. I look for Worley or Diamond or maybe even Deduno to be traded during spring training. They could also trade a current bull pen piece and move Worley or Diamond into the pen.

[TheLeviathan]

This thread illustrates the problem I was irritated by a few months ago. At this point the Twins have backed themselves into a scenario of either losing Diamond/Worley/Deduno via waivers or basically giving Gibson zero shot of making the team out of the gate.

 

Losing any of these guys for nothing would be a shame and so would forcing Gibson to AAA ready or not. I'll say it again....sure would be nice if we could find a way to shed Correia. That second year....ugh.

[tobi0040]

My feeling is that Parmalee goes away and possibly Diamond. Diamond might have some minor trade value and I would explore that now as I do not see him here by mid summer. Worley can work out of the pen and Deduno is too good to give up on.

 

Diamond is 27, a lefty, and had a 3.54 ERA over 173 IP just a year ago. I think we could find a taker but we are not getting much back given last year.

[savvyspy]

Honestly if all four of these guys are on the Twins roster you are guaranteed a 90 loss season anyway. Deduno is honestly the only one I'd consider keeping at this point.

 

Parmalee is what he is. He's never going to develop into a guy that isn't going to be exposed the longer he's in the lineup. When he's streaky good he's fine but more often than not he's a horrible defender with a so-so bat.

 

Diamond could have some value but he just doesn't have the stuff to be anything more than a #5 guy over the long haul. I'd much prefer to give Gibson or Deduno this spot anyway.

 

I think Worley is dead to this front office. They got ZERO from him at the major league level and he was just as bad in the minors. Its starting to look like he was damaged goods when we got him. I doubt he's in the league in 2 years. He's definitely not an upgrade over anyone we have. I'd be stunned if he's not one of the first of the guys with a serious chance of making the roster cut this spring.

 

Deduno should be in the rotation. If for whatever reason Gibson beats him out, I'd still put him in the pen. There is no reason a team as bad as the Twins should be cutting a guy with this much talent. He'd would by far be the first of this batch claimed if released.

[Shane Wahl]

Another "Parmelee is a horrible defender" remark . . . no he isn't. He would actually be a solid *defensive replacement* late in games for Arcia (and Willingham, if Parm can play LF).

[nicksaviking]

This thread illustrates the problem I was irritated by a few months ago. At this point the Twins have backed themselves into a scenario of either losing Diamond/Worley/Deduno via waivers or basically giving Gibson zero shot of making the team out of the gate.

 

Losing any of these guys for nothing would be a shame and so would forcing Gibson to AAA ready or not. I'll say it again....sure would be nice if we could find a way to shed Correia. That second year....ugh.

 

I agree, like everyone else, I didn't like the second year for Correia. Gibson probably should be the front runner for that spot simply for the development aspect but he's now likely a wildcard at best. Still, there is plenty of time for this to work out. There really only looks to be three useful free agent starters who will be able to start the season with a club on the free agent market, Correia could be moved.

[071063]

I think people have given up on Worley WAAAAY to quickly. I don't see any way the Twins expose him to waivers. He would be claimed immediately. I think he is going to wind up on the roster as the 5th starter and have a semi successful season.

[howieramone1406390264]

This thread illustrates the problem I was irritated by a few months ago. At this point the Twins have backed themselves into a scenario of either losing Diamond/Worley/Deduno via waivers or basically giving Gibson zero shot of making the team out of the gate.

 

Losing any of these guys for nothing would be a shame and so would forcing Gibson to AAA ready or not. I'll say it again....sure would be nice if we could find a way to shed Correia. That second year....ugh.

 

To get anything at all for Diamond/Worley/Deduno would be a bonus. Gibson will be in the rotation when he's ready to shine. When we shed Correia we will probably get more than Diamond/Worley/Deduno combined.

[DaveW]

The Twins shouldn't be getting rid of any pitchers at this point. I'm not a huge fan of DeDuno/Diamond, but both could be cheap solid #5 guys if it breaks right.

 

Parmelee isn't bad, but this team has a ton of bats coming up very quickly. I'd much rather lose a guy whose ceiling appears to be a back up corner OF/1b then a guy who could be a starting pitcher (worley, Diamond, DeDeuno)

[Thrylos]

All will get claimed, unless Denuno's shoulder is shot, and he might not, if they DFA him.

 

As far as Worley goes, he will be the fastest to get claimed out there. Simple question to ask: If Kyle Gibson were in this position, would he get claimed if DFA'd? Worley is the same age as Gibson (25) and he has had more success in the majors than Gibson already. Worley had elbow surgery September of 2012 to remove bone fragments and spurs and took until November to start conditioning. Thus he showed up out of shape and that messed his mechanics and got ugly (because his FB flattened) and resulted to injury. He showed up in shape this Spring Training and word is that he has his FB movement back. That would be great news

[TheLeviathan]

I agree, like everyone else, I didn't like the second year for Correia. Gibson probably should be the front runner for that spot simply for the development aspect but he's now likely a wildcard at best. Still, there is plenty of time for this to work out. There really only looks to be three useful free agent starters who will be able to start the season with a club on the free agent market, Correia could be moved.

 

Agreed, there is still time and injury issues. The unfortunate thing is that their best depth is lost if not immediately retained out of ST. And their most ready young contributor needs to be with the club if he is truly ready but I'm not sure, short of injury, that Gibson has any chance. I just don't like that for a prospect as old as he is. He should be up or not based on the merit of his readiness alone.

 

And I like it all a lot less because we aren't in this pickle but for a player with no future with the team, no trade value, and barely above replacement performance. I really want to root for Gibson and Worley having great years instead because they represent a real step toward the future rather than wheel spinning.

[DaveW]

I agree, like everyone else, I didn't like the second year for Correia. Gibson probably should be the front runner for that spot simply for the development aspect but he's now likely a wildcard at best. Still, there is plenty of time for this to work out. There really only looks to be three useful free agent starters who will be able to start the season with a club on the free agent market, Correia could be moved.

 

Correia is just fine, I'm pretty sure they could "shed" him at any point if they wanted too, however if he pitches like he did last year he is clearly an asset. One way or another I imagine Gibson gets his shot early, losing one of DeDuno or Diamond would hardly be the end of the world.

[Willihammer]

What's the over/under on players who hit the DL by Mar 31? I'll start the bidding at... 4