Article: TD Top Prospects: #1 Byron Buxton

[tobi0040]

Signing Buxton to a monster contract will be a nice problem to have as that will mean we had one great player for 6 years.

 

Let's also not forget the Twins signed Kirby Puckett to the (at that time) largest contract in baseball history. If this new wave of talent pans out and the Twins start winning consistently again, revenues will climb substantially, thereby creating a larger pool of funds to sign these guys to extensions.

 

2015-2019 could actually be a period where we are in playoff contention and have a relative low payroll. 2020 and beyond, look out. Mauer will likely be gone or be cheaper, but we could have a 2006-2007, only I would argue potentially more talent (Buxton, Sano, Meyer, our 5th pick next year, versus Santana, Torii, Cuddy, etc.)

[Halsey Hall]

Buxton is in Ft Myers, but has yet to show up at the park. There's not alot of fans out here yet, which is surprising, but most that are here are looking for him. When he does show, and the word gets out, it'll be a crowd here. Buxton will draw wherever he goes, and it's far from all Minnesota fans.

[Dman]

Unfortunately, I wanted Appel as well. Was generally upset by the pick.

 

Count me in the camp that wanted Appel as well and didn't think we needed Buxton. I guess that is why I am not a scout or GM, but I sure like to second guess those guys.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

"No prospect is a sure thing."

 

A good and proper warning, Nick. However, this fan delights in seeing a good thing play out. One of my mentors has coached me over the course of my career path with the words, "Let it play out, Mark. Let it play out."

 

The fact that the Twins' farm system is loaded makes Target Field a target-rich environment. To use a shotgun metaphor, a shotgun shell is loaded with bb's and firepower. There are magnum loads and trap loads. Lead shot, steel shot, tungsten, toxic, and nontoxic. Just for the sake of a visual, take a look at these shells:

 

If each shell represents a ballplayer, some might be loaded with one or two "plus" or "plus-plus" loads. Others with more or less skills--or loads--based upon position, offensive or defensive ability, and off-the-field attributes like leadership, age, personality, work ethic, and the like. The oft-referenced "five tool guy" would be the ideal load, in a manner of speaking.

 

Some in this thread have begun to speculate that the Big Three of Meyer, Sano, and Buxton pack so much firepower that they will play themselves out of Target Field's income stream in five or six years. How much fun would it be to see that problem play out?

 

Will the loads that are being packed and prepared in the minor leagues hit the target, hang fire, or fizzle out? We might also call them "studs and duds." My mind plays old tapes of Dick and Bert, extolling all of the young talent that keeps rolling out of the Kansas City Royals' farm system. So? What do they have to show for so much talent? Too soon to tell? I hear my coach, whispering over my shoulder, "Let it play out, Mark. Let it play out."

 

The sheer number of players, moving through the Twins system, waiting for their "shot" is impressive. Indeed, "no prospect is a sure thing," but the law of averages weighs in our favor. Variables like quality and quantity bring greater surety in this game. It comes down to a larger number of chances to hit the Target.

 

 

All I know is this: This fan will enjoy seeing it all play out.

[blindeke]

if the Tigers can afford all their talent, so can we

[mlhouse]

Unfortunately, I wanted Appel as well. Was generally upset by the pick.

 

Ditto…but I am glad I was wrong. The problem was the critical need for pitching.

[kemics]

Sano has to be added to the 40 man after this year anyhow, so I don't think that is really a concern, especially if there is a september call-up, might as well just leave him there.

 

If the twins are looking to be competitive and have the pieces in place, I see no problem with them signing these guys. These aren't your daddy's twins, they have money and will spent it.

 

However I can see a scenario where Sano is traded in order to restock the minors and free up payroll in order to sign Buxton long term. I think it's much easier to find a 1B/3B who can hit .280/.350 with 30+ hrs than it is a player like buxton.

[Paul Pleiss]

Byron who? Never heard of this kid. Must be a bum.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

If you haven't seen Buxton go from first to third before

 

No one has ever seen Buxton go from first to third. It's impossible to the naked eye.

[Jim Crikket]

Since we're sharing old Buxton videos, I'll re-post the following video of a Buxton triple I took last June. The first two videos above showed his defense and his power. This one shows off the speed.

 

A couple of things to note: it's not easy to notice, but the ball he hits to RCF never reaches the wall, it's cut off by the outfielder and Buxton still triples. He did that more than once in CR. Also, check out the time it takes him to get from home to 3B. He makes contact at :06 in to the video and slides in to 3B at :16 seconds. Home to 3B in roughly 10 seconds.

 

[video=youtube_share;1OxX4ZX05WY]

[jokin]

Since we're sharing old Buxton videos, I'll re-post the following video of a Buxton triple I took last June. The first two videos above showed his defense and his power. This one shows off the speed.

 

A couple of things to note: it's not easy to notice, but the ball he hits to RCF never reaches the wall, it's cut off by the outfielder and Buxton still triples. He did that more than once in CR. Also, check out the time it takes him to get from home to 3B. He makes contact at :06 in to the video and slides in to 3B at :16 seconds. Home to 3B in roughly 10 seconds.

 

[video=youtube_share;1OxX4ZX05WY]

 

Thanks for the re-post JC. I remember commenting at the time that supposedly Bo Jackson held the unofficial Home to 3B record at ~11.5 seconds. Bo also allegedly has the fastest 40 YD time ever at the NFL combine (4.12). Mickey Mantle supposedly has the fastest times- Home to 1B- 3.1 seconds battiing LH- and 3.5 seconds batting RH. And both of those times were aided by he fact that the Mick was drag-bunting. Buxton gets from Home to 1B in this clip in just a little over 3 seconds, and that of course, is while ROUNDING First Base.

[jm3319]

Honest question: Will people hate on Buxton if his power peaks in the teens for homeruns like they did/do for Mauer? We all know that leading the league in average, OBP, and Gold Glove defense doesn't cut it for some people around here.

[Seth Stohs]

Honest question: Will people hate on Buxton if his power peaks in the teens for homeruns like they did/do for Mauer? We all know that leading the league in average, OBP, and Gold Glove defense doesn't cut it for some people around here.

 

honest answer: probably!!

[jmlease1]

Honest question: Will people hate on Buxton if his power peaks in the teens for homeruns like they did/do for Mauer? We all know that leading the league in average, OBP, and Gold Glove defense doesn't cut it for some people around here.

 

Dan Barreiro will for sure, especially if his RBIs top out in the 70-80 range. But you can't worry about the clueless.

 

I'm looking forward to Buxton making the club in 2015. Here's hoping for health and success!

[Ncgo4]

They won't care about Buxton's power...if. If Sano and Rosario are hitting behind him and batting in a hundred runs a year. Mauer's "problem" was/is that there is no one behind him to bring runs in. We need our star player to be Bobby Bonds. Rod Carew was great and accepted as such because he was followed by Killebrew and Oliva.

[Dantes929]

sorry ncgo but that is not true. Mauer has been ripped on all along even when he has had Thome, Morneau, Kubel, Cuddyer and yes even D Young putting up big RBI numbers. Though to be fair, if he had Buxton's speed fans might have been less critical. If Buxton wins batting titles and GGs and hits lots of doubles and triples I don't care how many home runs he has.

[jimbo92107]

He got an invite to major league camp, right? Obviously they think he's on the borderline already, and while it's a long-shot, I wouldn't be shocked if he's up in May or June. If he tears up AA to start the season wouldn't you just say to yourself as the Twins FO, "might as well let him run wild in the show, he's better than everyone he's playing against otherwise."

 

It does beg the question, if Buxton demonstrates that he's good enough this spring to play major league ball, then what are they waiting for? I have no problem moving Hicks to a corner spot and playing Buxton in CF right out of spring training. Nothing in Buxton's progression has indicated that his grasp of the game is tenuous. He's not just barely making it, he's dominating at every level.

 

This reminds me a little of the fuss over bringing up Wayne Gretzky to the NHL at the tender age of 19. All he did was continue to amaze the world. Why not Byron Buxton? Who ya got that's better?

[jokin]

It does beg the question, if Buxton demonstrates that he's good enough this spring to play major league ball, then what are they waiting for? I have no problem moving Hicks to a corner spot and playing Buxton in CF right out of spring training.

 

Nothing in Buxton's progression has indicated that his grasp of the game is tenuous. He's not just barely making it, he's dominating at every level.

 

This reminds me a little of the fuss over bringing up Wayne Gretzky to the NHL at the tender age of 19. All he did was continue to amaze the world. Why not Byron Buxton? Who ya got that's better?

 

Simple answer. The Twins have no one that's even close. I get the strong feeling that Buxton will embarrass everyone else with what he can do in the OF this spring.

 

But rather than bringing him up straight out of ST, as good as he is now defensively, he still undoubtedly needs PAs at a lower level, I think following the Mike Trout model for promotion (ie, the Gretzky of MLB) should be considered (it worked out well for the Halos):

 

Trout

2010 A level: 131 games-- .979 OPS/A+ level: .821 OPS

2011 AA level 91 games-- .958 OPS/MLB level 41 games--.672 OPS*

2012 AAA level 20 games-- .1091 OPS/MLB level 139 games-- .963 OPS

 

Buxton

2013 A level: 125 games-- .990 OPS/A+ level: .887 OPS

2014 AA/AAA levels: 96 games?, 475 PAs?-- .900+ OPS?/MLB level 50 games?-- ???OPS**

 

 

 

*(Trout had a .163 BA/.492 OPS in July and .400 BA/.1384 OPS in August, before falling back a bit in September).

 

** (Assuming that Buxton does well at New Britain/Rochester, call him up after the All Star break or when trades are made for the expiring FA contract-holders, whichever outcome has an open roster spot/starting role made available. This gives him the opportunity to either hit the ground running in 2015, or come up after a short stint at Rochester, ala Trout, to work on what he found out where he was deficient in 2014).

[twinsnorth49]

It does beg the question, if Buxton demonstrates that he's good enough this spring to play major league ball, then what are they waiting for? I have no problem moving Hicks to a corner spot and playing Buxton in CF right out of spring training. Nothing in Buxton's progression has indicated that his grasp of the game is tenuous. He's not just barely making it, he's dominating at every level.

 

This reminds me a little of the fuss over bringing up Wayne Gretzky to the NHL at the tender age of 19. All he did was continue to amaze the world. Why not Byron Buxton? Who ya got that's better?

 

I don't see any reason not to at least give Buxton at bats at the lower levels first. Let him see some better pitching, adjust and once he's dominating bring him up with confidence.

 

I don't get the Gretzky analogy, are you referencing his age? The only reason Gretzky didn't start in the NHL was because the draft age was 20 at the time, not because he wasn't ready. He played in the WHA for 1 season , by the time he did reach the NHL with the WHA-NHL merger, the league had amended the draft age to 18, although he was technically never drafted.

 

There was never a doubt he could play there, he certainly never played minor league hockey.

[Ncgo4]

What happened to Hicks will have scared the bejesus out of the Twins. They will not do the same thing with Buxton & Sano and there is no way they end up in the Twin Cities after spring training. If either of them follows a torrid spring with a similar stint in the minors they could come back soon but not to start the year. Just my 2 cents.

[wagwan]

They won't care about Buxton's power...if. If Sano and Rosario are hitting behind him and batting in a hundred runs a year. Mauer's "problem" was/is that there is no one behind him to bring runs in. We need our star player to be Bobby Bonds. Rod Carew was great and accepted as such because he was followed by Killebrew and Oliva.

Not really Carew was a rookie in 1967 Killebrew and Oliva were gone before he got great. He was pretty much of a one man show in the Seventies...

[Boom Boom]

Honest question: Will people hate on Buxton if his power peaks in the teens for homeruns like they did/do for Mauer? We all know that leading the league in average, OBP, and Gold Glove defense doesn't cut it for some people around here.

 

I suppose so, but Buxton will have to lead the league in BA and OBP and win a Gold Glove.

 

Which pose will be used for Buxton's Target Field statue? Whose hat will he wear for the HOF?

 

I'm excited about the kid too, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I suppose so, but Buxton will have to lead the league in BA and OBP and win a Gold Glove.

 

Which pose will be used for Buxton's Target Field statue? Whose hat will he wear for the HOF?

 

I'm excited about the kid too, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

 

It will probably be a statue of him making that diving catch in the World Series. And a Twins hat, of course...how could he snub the team with whom he win so many rings?

 

#itshappening

[ashbury]

What happened to Hicks will have scared the bejesus out of the Twins.

 

Terry Ryan's career dates back earlier than 2013, ditto others who will be involved in making such a decision. They are capable of deciding each case on its own merits, IMO, and don't dart back and forth based on the most recent experience they've had. If they decide to bring Buxton up despite what happened to Hicks when they tried it, it will be because Buxton the human being isn't Hicks the human being.

[tobi0040]

Simple answer. The Twins have no one that's even close. I get the strong feeling that Buxton will embarrass everyone else with what he can do in the OF this spring.

 

But rather than bringing him up straight out of ST, as good as he is now defensively, he still undoubtedly needs PAs at a lower level, I think following the Mike Trout model for promotion (ie, the Gretzky of MLB) should be considered (it worked out well for the Halos):

 

Trout

2010 A level: 131 games-- .979 OPS/A+ level: .821 OPS

2011 AA level 91 games-- .958 OPS/MLB level 41 games--.672 OPS*

2012 AAA level 20 games-- .1091 OPS/MLB level 139 games-- .963 OPS

 

Buxton

2013 A level: 125 games-- .990 OPS/A+ level: .887 OPS

2014 AA/AAA levels: 96 games?, 475 PAs?-- .900+ OPS?/MLB level 50 games?-- ???OPS**

 

 

 

*(Trout had a .163 BA/.492 OPS in July and .400 BA/.1384 OPS in August, before falling back a bit in September).

 

** (Assuming that Buxton does well at New Britain/Rochester, call him up after the All Star break or when trades are made for the expiring FA contract-holders, whichever outcome has an open roster spot/starting role made available. This gives him the opportunity to either hit the ground running in 2015, or come up after a short stint at Rochester, ala Trout, to work on what he found out where he was deficient in 2014).

 

The Trout comps are really exciting, but they make me squirm at the same time.

 

Trout went 30-50 and 30-30 at 20 and 21. OPS of .963 and .988. Buxton has only 17 HR in almost 800 PA's. Looks to be a great player but the comp with one of the best seasons ever by a player that age is probably not realistic and setting is up for dissapointment.

[jokin]

Terry Ryan's career dates back earlier than 2013, ditto others who will be involved in making such a decision. They are capable of deciding each case on its own merits, IMO, and don't dart back and forth based on the most recent experience they've had. If they decide to bring Buxton up despite what happened to Hicks when they tried it, it will be because Buxton the human being isn't Hicks the human being.

 

 

Exactly right----SIOW---- Buxton isn't Hicks!

[jokin]

The Trout comps are really exciting, but they make me squirm at the same time.

 

Trout went 30-50 and 30-30 at 20 and 21. OPS of .963 and .988. Buxton has only 17 HR in almost 800 PA's. Looks to be a great player but the comp with one of the best seasons ever by a player that age is probably not realistic and setting is up for dissapointment.

 

I'm not suggesting duplicate production numbers. I think we'll be happy with whatever he ends up bringing to the table from the leadoff position and his sensational play will leave us with few moments of disappointment.

 

Comparing and contrasting the two, Buxton will clearly be a better defender. Trout will hit with more power. Buxton might get his high OPS numbers from his higher OBP and a high SLG from stretching singles into doubles and doubles into triples. But it's also important to consider- Trout has significantly strengthened his body over the last couple years.....who knows what Buck will be capable of when he weighs 225 (anyone remember skinny Torii and skinny Puck)?

[richardkr34]

The Trout comps are really exciting, but they make me squirm at the same time.

 

Trout went 30-50 and 30-30 at 20 and 21. OPS of .963 and .988. Buxton has only 17 HR in almost 800 PA's. Looks to be a great player but the comp with one of the best seasons ever by a player that age is probably not realistic and setting is up for dissapointment.

 

 

Trout had 23 HRs in 1,117 AB during his minor league run.

 

As far as scouting goes, from what I've heard is this: Buxton has more speed, a better glove, and a much better arm. Does he have the "feel" at the plate? That's what this year will answer.

[DocBauer]

Comparisons are fun and natural. They also get carried away at times. No matter how great a young talent may show, and end up being, each person/player is different to their own right.

 

The Kirby Puckett we all know, love and remember is not the fleet, base stealing lead off CF he was early on.

 

Give Buxton his time, and then give him his due. He may be Mays/Griffey part 2, or he may be a better Ricky Henderson. This year, next, or a season and a half from now. Any way, the future looks awesome.

[richardkr34]

Until the Twins have the next Clu Haywood in their system, I will not be satisfied.