2014 Fangraphs top 100 prospects

[JustinCB]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-top-100-prospects/

 

Marc Hulet of Fangraphs just posted his 2014 top prospects:

 

#1 Byron Buxton (OF)

 

#10 Miguel Sano (3B)

#23 Alex Meyer (P)

#32 Kohl Stewart (P)

#76 Eddie Rosario (2B/OF)

#93 Jose Berrios (P)

 

 

Sano is ranked behind Bryant as the second best 3b prospect.

 

Looks like he considers Meyer and Stewart second tier pitching prospects with Meyer coming in at #11 behind the overall top 10. He notes that Stewart is among those with the best chance of shooting up the rankings next year.

[Mike Sixel]

Ya, not a lot of detail in the article, but there is plenty of detail in the team ranking articles. He's pretty high on Stewart, clearly. And Buxton.....

[tobi0040]

Ya, not a lot of detail in the article, but there is plenty of detail in the team ranking articles. He's pretty high on Stewart, clearly. And Buxton.....

 

 

Fast forward 10 years, I don't think you will have 9 players ahead of Sano. But overall he is pretty high on Meyer and Stewart.

[diehardtwinsfan]

for reference sake, I think a lot of folks had Buxton in the 30s last year... Sano too for that matter. A lot can happen in a year. Hopefully that happens with guys like Stewart, Gonsalves, and Thorpe.

[cmb0252]

Just like when following the draft I feel you should look at top 100 lists in tiers. Most lists have Buxton in tier 1 by him self, Taveras and Bogaerts in tier 2, and the next 10-12 prospect in tier 3. Sano has been as high as #4 and as low as #14 but still in the same tier of specs. Just the writer's personal opinion.

[B Richard]

Bryant? Ha, ha, ha. The guy can mash, but so can Sano.

 

Sano posted a 13% BB rate at AA.

Bryant posted a 4.8% BB rate at A+.

 

Oh, by the way, Sano is 1.5 years younger and more likely to stick at 3B. They both strike out a lot, hardly surprising for power hitters.

 

Yeah, I'll take Sano over Bryant every day and twice on Sunday. Say what you want about Bryant and SSS, but that's even less reason to put him ahead of a more-proven commodity in Sano. Vamos, Miguel!

[maxisagod]

I love Bryant, I would have taken him ahead of Stewart no problem, but the author must think he sticks at 3rd, hit close to as many homers as Sano, and hits 25-50 more points than him for the higher ranking, which I doubt any of those 3 things happen. He must have saw Bryant in the Arizona Fall League moved him up the list.

[bird]

more good news, especially comparing ourselves to the rest of the AL Central, the Royals excepted. Twins have 6 prospects while Cleveland (2), Chicago (2) and Detroit (1) combined for 5.

[jokin]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-top-100-prospects/

 

Marc Hulet of Fangraphs just posted his 2014 top prospects:

 

#1 Byron Buxton (OF)

 

#10 Miguel Sano (3B)

#23 Alex Meyer (P)

#32 Kohl Stewart (P)

#76 Eddie Rosario (2B/OF)

#93 Jose Berrios (P)

 

 

Sano is ranked behind Bryant as the second best 3b prospect.

 

Looks like he considers Meyer and Stewart second tier pitching prospects with Meyer coming in at #11 behind the overall top 10. He notes that Stewart is among those with the best chance of shooting up the rankings next year.

 

Quite a different take on the expectations for Stewart's career arc than Keith Law, and obviously high on fast-tracking Buxton, based on this quote from Hulet:

 

".........it seems as though clubs, for the most part, are also more willing to aggressively push their top prospects (especially pitchers) through their systems — with players such as Jose Fernandez, Michael Wacha, Archie Bradley and Robert Stephenson as recent examples. In the case of the pitchers, it could be a matter of front offices wanting to ensure the players’ most effective seasons occur at the big league level during cost-controlled years while also ensuring the club can closely monitor their investments in an effort to mitigate injuries."

 

I hope the Twins go into Buxton's and Stewart's development phase with this kind of end-result as the objective, and have less concern for "consistency."

[AlwaysinModeration]

It does make you wonder, if big league clubs didn't lose player control after six years, and thus possibly miss out on a player's prime years, how much sooner many above average players would move up to the bigs. It is easy for clubs to hide behind the "need for players to develop" over the course of 5-6 years in the minors, but in reality, it is just cheaper/more efficient for their payrolls to make sure good players don't debut until 23 or 24. I think their is a lot of MLB-caliber play that gets squandered in the minors due to the current system.

[Jim Crikket]

It does make you wonder, if big league clubs didn't lose player control after six years, and thus possibly miss out on a player's prime years, how much sooner many above average players would move up to the bigs. It is easy for clubs to hide behind the "need for players to develop" over the course of 5-6 years in the minors, but in reality, it is just cheaper/more efficient for their payrolls to make sure good players don't debut until 23 or 24. I think their is a lot of MLB-caliber play that gets squandered in the minors due to the current system.

 

I think that certainly does happen and if I were running a team, I'd probably take the service time issue in to account, too. I think it's a legitimate strategy to hold off on bringing a guy up IF you think you're a couple of years from contending anyway. But if you honestly believe you've assembled a contending roster and a 21 year old pitcher could add a couple of wins or help you in the postseason, you don't play those games with service time. You don't know whether you'll even be a contender when he's 27-28. It's all hands on deck when you feel you have a legit shot.

 

I'd also say, in a year like the upcoming Twins season, when you feel you might be just a year away and you've got 2-3 potential difference-making prospects on the doorstep, you probably want to get them introduced to Big League ball this season, rather than waiting a year and having all of them go through baptism by fire in a season where you're realistically hoping to contend.

[Badsmerf]

It does make you wonder, if big league clubs didn't lose player control after six years, and thus possibly miss out on a player's prime years, how much sooner many above average players would move up to the bigs. It is easy for clubs to hide behind the "need for players to develop" over the course of 5-6 years in the minors, but in reality, it is just cheaper/more efficient for their payrolls to make sure good players don't debut until 23 or 24. I think their is a lot of MLB-caliber play that gets squandered in the minors due to the current system.

On the other hand you get guys that were rushed like Carlos Gomez and it delays their development. Had Gomez been able to develop like a normal prospect its possible his breakout could have come at a younger age. Rarely do players get held back for very long. There are obvious examples, but in recent years when guys are ready, they play. Teams like the Rays and A's are always going to be cognizant of team control and salary, its just the business.

[Mike Sixel]

Not to mention no one's arm is built to pitch, and at some point odds are they will get hurt....so get them to the majors before that happens.....

[nicksaviking]

I think that certainly does happen and if I were running a team, I'd probably take the service time issue in to account, too. I think it's a legitimate strategy to hold off on bringing a guy up IF you think you're a couple of years from contending anyway. But if you honestly believe you've assembled a contending roster and a 21 year old pitcher could add a couple of wins or help you in the postseason, you don't play those games with service time. You don't know whether you'll even be a contender when he's 27-28. It's all hands on deck when you feel you have a legit shot.

 

I understand all that, and don't want to lose our stars before their prime, but as a guy who enjoys the historical aspects of the game, I hate it. Robin Yount wouldn't be a member of the 3000 hit club if the Brewers had made him wait until he was 21 to get to the big leagues. Ted Williams and Eddie Mathews would not be members of the 500 HR club. We would have missed the best season's of Tony Conigliaro's tragically short career. Sandy Koufax only pitched 12 years in the MLB, and only in the last six was he anything other than an average pitcher. Would he ever have become the pitcher we know today if he was stuck in the minors those first six seasons "figuring things out?"

[Monkeypaws]

more good news, especially comparing ourselves to the rest of the AL Central, the Royals excepted. Twins have 6 prospects while Cleveland (2), Chicago (2) and Detroit (1) combined for 5.

 

Also, the Twins have 3 prospects above the Royals top guy, and 4 above Detroit and Chicago's top guys, although Chicago will likely get a prize this upcoming draft.

 

Granted, Detroit will be contending for a championship this season, so it's a hollow victory there. The White Sox on the other hand, it may be a long time before they finish above Minnesota again.

[bird]

Also, the Twins have 3 prospects above the Royals top guy, and 4 above Detroit and Chicago's top guys, although Chicago will likely get a prize this upcoming draft.

 

Granted, Detroit will be contending for a championship this season, so it's a hollow victory there. The White Sox on the other hand, it may be a long time before they finish above Minnesota again.

 

The Royals have three pitching prospects that appear to be every bit the equal to our top 3. Chicago has one, #99 ranked Eric Johnson, that the experts have in the same class as our #93 ranked Berrios (are you reading this, jokin? ). Looking past 2014, given how difficult it is to field a rotation free from the devastation of injuries, I like the Twin's chances to become a contender certainly by 2016. The Royals look to me to be the real competitor during the next cycle.

)

[ashbury]

I think that certainly does happen and if I were running a team, I'd probably take the service time issue in to account, too.

 

In practice, it's probably rare for a front office to try to do it in terms of years, and somewhat more common to do it in terms of weeks or a few months to avoid hitting a particular threshold of service time a year earlier than necessary. This only happens on players they think will have multi-year careers. And with the very top echelon player they have to be careful not to build up resentment that manifests itself later on in major contract negotiations.

[jokin]

The Royals have three pitching prospects that appear to be every bit the equal to our top 3. Chicago has one, #99 ranked Eric Johnson, that the experts have in the same class as our #93 ranked Berrios (are you reading this, jokin? ). Looking past 2014, given how difficult it is to field a rotation free from the devastation of injuries, I like the Twin's chances to become a contender certainly by 2016. The Royals look to me to be the real competitor during the next cycle.

)

 

FWIW, "expert" Jim Callis has Eric Johnson @ 70 and Berrios @ 90.

 

On the Royals, for once we generally agree:jump:, although re-signing Shields would make the Royals assuming the mantle as the main contender much more likely.

 

The Tigers have done themselves well in beginning the extrication from impossible contracts. But more importantly, they have been extremely deft at trading their expendable prospects for better players, plus they will sign the extra FA or two to put them over the top- so as long as the current willing ownership and GM philosophy remain intact, they will remain formidable contenders.

[bird]

Well jokin, we agree on the Royals. But I have to rib you a bit for fun: the "experts", perhaps aside from you, appear to view Berrios as being in the same tier as Micah, er, Eric Johnson, right?

 

A topic for another thread, but I'm more skeptical about Detroit's staying power. Rotations tend to suffer two or three losses to injury during a season, and my hunch is that Detroit doesn't have acceptable replacements on the way. I think they were one of the weaker spenders internationally too this year. If they suffer more than one or two injuries to their rotation, they may be much more vulnerable. They don't have nearly the financial flexibility of some other teams, so FA acquisitions may be tougher to come by too. Of course, I'm looking out two or three years here.