Personal Top Prospect Lists

[the_youngster]

With the season coming up and everyone getting excited with the new prospect rankings that are coming out, I am curious to see how the insiders and non insiders alike rank the Twins prospects (or even top prospects around baseball). The lists could be top 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, 50, whatever floats your boast really. I was bored the other day and made a top 65 list (which ended with just a lot of gut feeling for the second half of the list), saw mistakes and forgot Lewen Diaz, thus I created a new top 66. I will only post the top 30, because anything after that is really up in the air for all we know. There are also some notes and explanations in the parenthesis.

 

1. Byron Buxton

2. Miguel Sano

3. Alex Meyer

4. Kohl Stewart

5. Eddie Rosario

6. Jorge Polanco (watching video of him hitting is a beautiful thing)

7. Jose Berrios

8. Lewis Thorpe

9. Max Kepler

10. Josmil Pinto

11. Stephen Gonsalves

12. Travis Harrison

13. Jorge Felix

14. Trevor May

15. Danny Santana

16. Stuart Turner

17. Sean Gilmartin (proximity to MLB & a relativley high floor)

18. Michael Tonkin

19. Kennys Vargas

20. Zach Jones

21. Ryan Eades

22. Amuarys Minier

23. A. J. Achter (Proximity to MLB & recent success on this one)

24. Adam Brett Walker

25. Mason Melotakis

26. Fernando Romero

27. D. J. Baxendale (high floor)

28. Logan Darnell (proximity to MLB)

29. D. J. Hicks

30. Yorman Landa

 

Note: Randy Rosario was just out of the top 30, Diaz/Bard/Navaretto need more playing time to judge, and Niko Goodrum was just out, but a good season would shoot him up the list.

[diehardtwinsfan]

You'll see them from time to time. I put one together towards the end of last season. It's interesting to see what people value. I tend to value results a bit more than most, so I had Logan Darnell, Vargas, and Walker much higher up on my list, and Kepler a bit lower. There really isn't a right or wrong way to do it (unless you want to go back and grade the lists later to see who made it and who didn't, but even that is a bit subjective).

[Jim Crikket]

I published my Top 15 over at Knuckleballs back in November. You can click here for the post if you want to know my rationale for Meyer at #1 or for not including Santana, etc. If I had to do it over now, I might drop Rosario a bit in light of the 50-game suspension he's facing, since I do believe that affects his likely ETA. Gilmartin hadn't been acquired yet and would be considered now.

 

1. Meyer

2. Buxton

3. Sano

4. Rosario

5. Stewart

6. Berrios

7. Pinto

8. Polanco

9. Kepler

10. Walker

11. Thorpe

12. May

13. Harrison

14. Gonsalves

15. Sulbaran

[Steve Lein]

1. Buxton - Tool Shed.

2. Sano - #PowerBanana

3. Meyer - Staff Ace.

4. Stewart - Phenom.

5. Rosario - Will hit enough to play wherever.

6. Berrios - Almost feel like this is too high on him for me at this point, but whatevs.

7. Kepler - I'm a big believer.

8. Polanco - Won't stick at SS, but guys who can hit find a spot, and I think he can.

9. Thorpe - Lefty in the 90's and growing? Sign me up.

10. Pinto - Should be a decent bat, but if he can't call a game...

 

Just Missed: May, Santana, Turner, Gonsalves. And I would have Gibson (7), Hicks (8), and Arcia (4) all in this list if not graduated.

[Thrylos]

My top 40 off-season are here.

[lightfoot789]

TOP 30 Prospect Rankings 2014

1. Byron Buxton (Called up in September - handles struggles)

2. Miguel Sano (MLB starter by July)

3. Alex Meyer (MLB Starter off and on in 2014)

4. Kohl Stewart (Midwest League All Star)

5. Eddie Rosario (still great hitter - despite bad judgement)

6. Josmil Pinto (MLB starter by July)

7. Trevor May (Breakout year - future reliever)

8. Lewis Thorpe (High upside)

9. Adam Brett Walker (Higher OBP w/25+ HRs & 20+ SB's)

10. Jorge Polanco (4 SB / 4 CS - Is speed a tool?)

11. Max Kepler (Must hit LHP better - but great swing)

12. Jose Berrios (When bad - very bad & vice cersa)

13. Stephen Gonsalves (Sleeper in 2014 - better than Stewart)

14. Zach Jones (Less BB's this year - gets to AAA)

15. Danny Santana (Consistency will come in 2014 defensively)

16. Kennys Vargas (Gets to AAA in 2014 - continues to hit)

17. Travis Harrison (Defense keeps getting better + Power Year)

18. Stuart Turner (Fast mover in 2014)

19. Ryan Eades (Won't be flashy - but will win)

20. Taylor Rogers (People need to recognize - Throws strikes)

21. Brett Lee (Knows how to pitch & compete to win)

22. Mason Melotakis (Will end up a strong LH reliever in system)

23. Dalton Hicks (Just gets it done - solid defender @ 1st)

24. Jorge Felix (Solid potential & upside)

25. Niko Goodrum (Consistent Defense in 2014)

26. Tim Shibuya (Excellent stuff as a reliever)

27. D. J. Baxendale (high floor - must rebound from AA)

28. Miguel Sulbaran (More consistent than Berrios)

29. Tyler Jones (Not many in system with better stuff)

30. Matt Thomshaw (Super Sleeper - 5 Pitches - Hits corners)

[pierre75275]

I published my Top 15 over at Knuckleballs back in November. You can click here for the post if you want to know my rationale for Meyer at #1 or for not including Santana, etc. If I had to do it over now, I might drop Rosario a bit in light of the 50-game suspension he's facing, since I do believe that affects his likely ETA. Gilmartin hadn't been acquired yet and would be considered now.

 

1. Meyer

2. Buxton

3. Sano

4. Rosario

5. Stewart

6. Berrios

7. Pinto

8. Polanco

9. Kepler

10. Walker

11. Thorpe

12. May

13. Harrison

14. Gonsalves

15. Sulbaran

 

I am surprised that most people seem to want to rank Meyer third. I would rank him above Sano but not above Buxton, just because guys like him are so hard and expensive to find.

[Thrylos]

I am surprised that most people seem to want to rank Meyer third. I would rank him above Sano but not above Buxton, just because guys like him are so hard and expensive to find.

 

Rewind a couple seasons and think AL MVP: Who would you vote for MVP: Trout, Cabrera or Verlander? You got 3 comparables here.

[ashbury]

Rewind a couple seasons and think AL MVP: Who would you vote for MVP: Trout, Cabrera or Verlander? You got 3 comparables here.

 

Meyer strikes me as the one of our three most likely to wind up embarrassed by that comparison in the fullness of time, but of course all three could, and conversely for any of them to actually achieve rough parity with their comp will be awesome.

[the_youngster]

Yeah I try to balance my evaluations by accompanying all of the major focus pints: results, upside, proximity to MLB, with a dash of gut feeling (I also will acknowledge guys with lower floors who likely will reach the majors, ala Gilmartin).

[the_youngster]

Thrylos, I like how you ranked Zach Larson at 36. He is a guy I really look forward to seeing grow. I wanted to rank him higher in my full list (ended up at 61), but with another season to gauge, I think he could reach up there in future lists.

[Jim Crikket]

I am surprised that most people seem to want to rank Meyer third. I would rank him above Sano but not above Buxton, just because guys like him are so hard and expensive to find.

 

I kind of explained my rationale in the post at Knuckleballs, but while I think Buxton is amazing and the sky is the limit for him, I moved Meyer to the top spot because a true, legitimate ACE is what this team needs more than anything else to become a championship caliber team. Meyer has that potential and he's closer to delivering on it at the MLB level than Buxton is.

 

Thrylos, your Trout-Cabrera-Verlander comparison is a pretty good analogy. Look at the talent on the field surrounding Trout, but he hasn't sniffed a championship and right now it doesn't look like he will for at least a couple years. Would Cabrera have been to a WS in Detroit without Verlander? I just think top of the rotation pitching is the difference maker when it comes to being World Series contenders.

 

But here's the cool thing: IF all 3 of these guys reach their potential (which isn't assured, but isn't outside the realm of possibility, either), the Twins could have what amounts to a Trout-Cabrera-Verlander combination, all in their primes, for a pretty significant stretch of time in the second half of this decade.

[Jim Crikket]

Rewind a couple seasons and think AL MVP: Who would you vote for MVP: Trout, Cabrera or Verlander? You got 3 comparables here.

 

Like I wrote above, these are good comparables. What I don't agree with though, is posing the question as one of, "Who would you vote for MVP." Like many of the actual voters, I tend to think that pitchers have their own award, the Cy Young, so it would take a once-in-a-generation kind of season from a pitcher for me to put him at the top of my MVP ballot.

 

The question I would pose is something more along the lines of, "If you were to put together a team specifically for the purpose of winning multiple World Series, which of these guys would you pick first (assuming you were going to get to keep them through the first several years of their careers)?"

[Siehbiscuit]

My criteria is weighted like this: 1) Potential MLB production 2) Proximity to MLB 3) MiLB production

 

1. Byron Buxton

2. Miguel Sano

3. Alex Meyer - proximity almost pushes him to Sano.

4. Kohl Stewart - difference between he and Meyer is proximity to MLB

5. Eddie Rosario

6. Josmil Pinto - edges out Polanco due to proximity to MLB

7. Jorge Polanco

8. Lewis Thorpe - lefty has high potential

9. Stephen Gonsalves - see Thorpe

10. Max Kepler - lots of potential, but results needed soon

11. Jose Berrios - MLB potential drops him for me

12. Trevor May - proximity to MLB helps here

13. Jorge Felix

14. Danny Santana - lots of tools. Big upside

15. Stuart Turner - Defensive standout to move quickly. Hit tool not terrible.

16. Adam Brett Walker - MiLB production too hard to ignore

17. Mason Melotakis - potential is there. Health, not so much.

18. Kennys Vargas - See AB Walker

19. Sean Gilmartin

20. Michael Tonkin - has makings of a future closer

21. Zach Jones

22. Ryan Eades

23. Amuarys Minier - has potential, but hasn't shown great production.

24. Travis Harrison - not sold on his hit tool and defense is suspect.

25. Randy Rosario

26. Daniel Bard - see Mason Melotakis; not ready to give up on him yet.

27. D. J. Baxendale

28. D. J. Hicks

29. Logan Darnell - MiLB results, but may have limited MLB upside.

30. JT Chargois - mid-90's fireballer has to get healthy. High potential.

[Jim Crikket]

17. Mason Melotakis - potential is there. Health, not so much.

 

Maybe I'm having a senior moment, but what's the concern with Melotakis' health? He was fine all season in CR. They moved him to the pen late in the year, but that was due to caution over the innings he had throw in his first year as a starting pitcher after being a closer in college.

[cmathewson]

Great lists: Mine is not that different

 

1. Buxton

2. Sano

3. Meyer

4. Stewart

5. Thorpe

6. Rosario

7. May

8. Polanco

9. Kepler

10. Berrios

11. Pinto

12. Gonsalves

13. Santana

14. Harrison

15. Walker

16. Felix

17. Turner

18. Melotakis

19. Jones

20. Tonkin

21. Eades

22. Minier

23. Vargas

24. Darnell

25. Gilmartin

[bird]

Love the lists, thanks. The depth of the system may be underrated. On the lists I've tracked, 22 different prospects have made someone's top 10 this year and last; 49 have made someone's Top 25. Gilmartin can barely make a top 25 with us, and where did he rank last year with his former team? Top 10 guy I think.

[maars]

I've been messing around in Excel trying to create an "objective," numbers based prospect ranking list using fielding (including positional adjustment) and career and peak hitting performance for hitters, and velocity, number of pitches, K/9 rate, and career and peak FIP for pitchers, as well as incorporating proximity to the majors and age vs. level of competition. It's not perfect, or scientific by any means, just me messing around to see what's possible, but here is what it's turned up. D.J. Baxendale, A.J. Achter and Logan Darnell are the big surprises for me, but other than that, it looks like a lot of the lists that I have seen around here before.

 

1. Byron Buxton

2. Miguel Sano

3. Eddie Rosario

4. Kohl Stewart

5. Alex Meyer

6. Lewis Thorpe

7. Stephen Gonsalves

8. Jose Berrios

9. Jorge Polanco

10. D.J. Baxendale

11. Josmil Pinto

12. Miguel Sulbaran

13. Trevor May

14. Max Kepler

15. Sean Gilmartin

16. Felix Jorge

17. Logan Darnell

18. Zach Jones

19. A.J. Achter

20. Randy Rosario

21. Daniel Santana

22. Travis Harrison

23. Ryan Eades

24. Fernando Romero

25. Michael Tonkin

26. Kennys Vargas

27. Yorman Landa

28. Dan Rohlfing

29. Tyler Duffey

30. Lester Oliveros

[cmb0252]

I always enjoy looking at prospect lists, be it Twins or top 100, so thanks everyone for sharing. One thing I have noticed on all these lists in my opinion is how low Ryan Eades is. I feel a lot of people are down grading him for 15 bad innings of professional ball after a very long college year. He was spent before he even got there.

[PseudoSABR]

I always enjoy looking at prospect lists, be it Twins or top 100, so thanks everyone for sharing. One thing I have noticed on all these lists in my opinion is how low Ryan Eades is. I feel a lot of people are down grading him for 15 bad innings of professional ball after a very long college year. He spent before he even got there.

Jim Callis was actually pretty high on him, during his chat with the Talk to Contact podcasts guys. Callis projected Eades a number three starter.

[the_youngster]

Personally I like Ryan Eades, but he is ranked where he is not necessarily based on his status as a prospect, but due to the other prospects that many value more than him (actually a testament to the depth of the organization as a whole). Eades hasn't put much time in the organization yet, but I am not down on him as a prospect. A season to gauge him a bit more and he could gain real value in the eyes of many.

[cmathewson]

I saw Eades in the College World Series and I was not impressed. But I have to believe his arm was out of gas after a long season of pitching on Friday nights and sometimes on Sundays. I'd like to see him make it to Fort Myers this year and see what he can do with a fresh arm.

[JP3700]

Here is my top 30 list:

 

1. Byron Buxton

2. Miguel Sano

3. Alex Meyer

4. Kohl Stewart

5. Eddie Rosario

6. Jose Berrios

7. Jorge Polanco

8. Josmil Pinto

9. Lewis Thorpe

10. Trevor May

11. Max Kepler (++) Maintained a good IsoD and IsoP in a down year. With some better health and better luck, could be in line for a breakout year.

12. Felix Jorge (+++) K% has gone up every year, BB% has gone down every year. Could crack some top 100 lists with a good year.

13. Stephen Gonsalves

14. Travis Harrison

15. Danny Santana

16. Ryan Eades

17. Stuart Turner

18. Kennys Vargas

19. Michael Tonkin

20. Adam Walker

21. Miguel Sulbaran

22. Amaurys Minier

23. Yorman Landa (+) Nasty stuff. Ground ball machine that can miss some bats. BB% has gone down every year. High risk, high reward.

24. Fernando Romero

25. Taylor Rogers

26. Randy Rosario

27. Niko Goodrum

28. Mason Melotakis

29. Zach Jones

30. Sean Gilmartin

[lightfoot789]

I've been messing around in Excel trying to create an "objective," numbers based prospect ranking list using fielding (including positional adjustment) and career and peak hitting performance for hitters, and velocity, number of pitches, K/9 rate, and career and peak FIP for pitchers, as well as incorporating proximity to the majors and age vs. level of competition. It's not perfect, or scientific by any means, just me messing around to see what's possible, but here is what it's turned up. D.J. Baxendale, A.J. Achter and Logan Darnell are the big surprises for me, but other than that, it looks like a lot of the lists that I have seen around here before.

 

1. Byron Buxton

2. Miguel Sano

3. Eddie Rosario

4. Kohl Stewart

5. Alex Meyer

6. Lewis Thorpe

7. Stephen Gonsalves

8. Jose Berrios

9. Jorge Polanco

10. D.J. Baxendale

11. Josmil Pinto

12. Miguel Sulbaran

13. Trevor May

14. Max Kepler

15. Sean Gilmartin

16. Felix Jorge

17. Logan Darnell

18. Zach Jones

19. A.J. Achter

20. Randy Rosario

21. Daniel Santana

22. Travis Harrison

23. Ryan Eades

24. Fernando Romero

25. Michael Tonkin

26. Kennys Vargas

27. Yorman Landa

28. Dan Rohlfing

29. Tyler Duffey

30. Lester Oliveros

 

No Walker lol

[samloupete]

1. Byron Buxton

2. Miguel Sano

3. Alex Meyer

4. Eddie Rosario

5. Kohl Stewart

6. Lewis Thorpe

7. J.O. Berrios

8. Josmil Pinto

9. Jorge Polanco

10. Max Kepler

11. Danny Santana

12. Adam Brett Walker

13. Michael Tonkin

14. Felix Jorge

15. Matt Harrison

16. Steven Gonsalves

17. Yorman Landa

18. Kyle Gibson (not in the bigs yet)

19. Amaurys Minier

20. Niko Goodrum

21. Alex Wimmers

22. Ryan Eades

23. Stuart Turner

24. Mike Kvasnicka

25. Zach Jones

26. J.D. Williams

27. Lewin Diaz

28. Trevor May

29. Luke Bard

30. J.D. Hicks

[amjgt]

I published my Top 15 over at Knuckleballs back in November. You can click here for the post if you want to know my rationale for Meyer at #1 or for not including Santana, etc. If I had to do it over now, I might drop Rosario a bit in light of the 50-game suspension he's facing, since I do believe that affects his likely ETA. Gilmartin hadn't been acquired yet and would be considered now.

 

1. Meyer

2. Buxton

3. Sano

4. Rosario

5. Stewart

6. Berrios

7. Pinto

8. Polanco

9. Kepler

10. Walker

11. Thorpe

12. May

13. Harrison

14. Gonsalves

15. Sulbaran

 

I certainly commend you for sticking to your opinion that differs from many, but if you think about the prospect list in terms of trade value.... If we offered Buxton straight up for David Price the Rays would certainly think about it (and I would guess they would say yes), but if we offered Alex Meyer, they wouldn't be able to hang up the phone because they would be rolling on the floor laughing so hard.

[ashbury]

I certainly commend you for sticking to your opinion that differs from many, but if you think about the prospect list in terms of trade value.... If we offered Buxton straight up for David Price the Rays would certainly think about it (and I would guess they would say yes), but if we offered Alex Meyer, they wouldn't be able to hang up the phone because they would be rolling on the floor laughing so hard.

 

I thought about taking that tack as well, using approximate trade value as a metric, for constructing a list to share. The same thought process as yours led me to put Meyer third.

 

OTOH, I think you have to be a little careful - or maybe I should say, more thorough than to look at just any one trade candidate. With our big-three being comped in another thread with the likes of Trout/Cabrera/Verlander, it's such a broad range of skill sets that trade value will depend greatly on the specifics of whom you're trading to. In general, I wouldn't expect another GM to trade us a young but established ace for an even younger pitcher who holds out that promise but hasn't demonstrated it yet at the MLB level. And I wouldn't expect to trade Buxton for a Trout, nor Sano for Machado. So the trade value for any of our prospects needs to be blended over the broader universe of possible targets.

 

I also quickly decided that this metric only makes much sense for evaluation when looking at the top prospects in our organization. Which player would gain more value in trade, Mason Melotakis or Dalton Hicks? I have no idea!

 

So I doubt I'll construct a list after all. It wouldn't be any kind of independent opinion, just some more group-think as mentioned in another thread elsewhere.

[cmathewson]

Another look at my (new) top 10 reveals something interesting:

 

1. Buxton

2. Sano

3. Meyer

4. Stewart

5. Rosario

6. Thorpe

7. Polanco

8. May

9. Kepler

10. Berrios

 

Compare this to the BA top 10 from 2008

 

[TABLE=class: small, width: 100%]

1.

Nick Blackburn, rhp

2.

Joe Benson, of

3.

Wilson Ramos, c

4.

Tyler Robertson, lhp

5.

Anthony Swarzak, rhp

6.

Ben Revere, of

7.

Jason Pridie, of

8.

Brian Duensing, lhp

9.

Jeff Manship, rhp

10.

Trevor Plouffe, ss

[/TABLE]

 

IMHO, every one of the 2014 prospects is better than every one of the guys on the 2008 BA list.

[Jim Crikket]

OTOH, I think you have to be a little careful - or maybe I should say, more thorough than to look at just any one trade candidate. With our big-three being comped in another thread with the likes of Trout/Cabrera/Verlander, it's such a broad range of skill sets that trade value will depend greatly on the specifics of whom you're trading to. In general, I wouldn't expect another GM to trade us a young but established ace for an even younger pitcher who holds out that promise but hasn't demonstrated it yet at the MLB level. And I wouldn't expect to trade Buxton for a Trout, nor Sano for Machado. So the trade value for any of our prospects needs to be blended over the broader universe of possible targets.

 

I also quickly decided that this metric only makes much sense for evaluation when looking at the top prospects in our organization. Which player would gain more value in trade, Mason Melotakis or Dalton Hicks? I have no idea!

 

This is exactly why I don't see "trade value" as the way to evaluate prospects. It might... might... be one factor to consider but as the sole or primary factor, I wouldn't do that.

 

Would the Rays trade Price for Buxton? Of course. Would the Twins make that trade? No way. But I'd say it's unlikely the Twins would trade Meyer for Price either. The Rays MIGHT make that trade, because they're an organization that survives and thrives by trading established (read: expensive) players for young players with similar potential. Would the Yankees trade a Price for a Meyer? No.

 

If I were the Twins, I wouldn't trade any of the top 3, Meyer-Buxton-Sano, for anything but an obscenely one-sided return.

[Thrylos]

Another look at my (new) top 10 reveals something interesting:

 

1. Buxton

2. Sano

3. Meyer

4. Stewart

5. Rosario

6. Thorpe

7. Polanco

8. May

9. Kepler

10. Berrios

 

Compare this to the BA top 10 from 2008

 

[TABLE=class: small, width: 100%]

1.

Nick Blackburn, rhp

2.

Joe Benson, of

3.

Wilson Ramos, c

4.

Tyler Robertson, lhp

5.

Anthony Swarzak, rhp

6.

Ben Revere, of

7.

Jason Pridie, of

8.

Brian Duensing, lhp

9.

Jeff Manship, rhp

10.

Trevor Plouffe, ss

[/TABLE]

 

IMHO, every one of the 2014 prospects is better than every one of the guys on the 2008 BA list.

 

Ramos has a career 109 OPS+ and this will be his age 26 season in the majors. Other than Buxton, Sano and maybe Rosario nobody on the list (as far as position players go) is a sure thing to equal this performance. If Revere was a prospect, he would probably be fifth or sixth in this list. Plouffe, Duensing and Swarzak are proven major leaguers. Other than the first 3 in this list, I think that if the rest on the 2014 list have the career that those three had so far, would they be busts? I don't think so...