Emilio Bonifacio DFA'd

[Willihammer]

I want sharks, not more piranhas. JMO

[nicksaviking]

I want sharks, not more piranhas. JMO

 

But I think the only sharks left are really only suited to DH and require a compensation pick.

[TheLeviathan]

Sign me up - this guy would be a far better option than a few guys sniffing the major league roster right now.

[Mike Sixel]

ONE of the reasons Oakland did well last year was that they did not give away WAR (or however you want to measure players). They cleaned the awful players out, and replaced tehm with decent players. That alone was worth wins. If this guy is a super utility guy, and could platoon in the OF or something for awhile, I'd do it.

[The Wise One]

Excellent point on Dozier insurance....but also note, he's the exact same age as Presley (29 in 2014), better plate discipline, obviously more versatile, better base stealer. I'm not sure where his defense rates in CF, but he could replace Presley, too, when Hicks finally sticks for good, followed by Buxton. The only difference being, Ryan evidently likes Presley and especially likes the value he represents at minimum cost and Presley doesn't even become Arb-eligible until 2015- I'm fairly certain paying Bonifacio $3.5M is something Ryan doesn't want to do, if at all possible.

 

Bonifacio career OPS .662

Presley .715

Better place discipline. Over 300 ab Bonifacio would be on base 5 more times, but Presley is more likely to start in scoring position.

[The Wise One]

ONE of the reasons Oakland did well last year was that they did not give away WAR (or however you want to measure players). They cleaned the awful players out, and replaced tehm with decent players. That alone was worth wins. If this guy is a super utility guy, and could platoon in the OF or something for awhile, I'd do it.

 

Bonifacio would have been the player Oakland got rid of. Not a great hitter, not a great fielder. If you can't do one, you better be viewed better as the other

[Mike Sixel]

My point was that you should try to get better at every position every year, as long as you are not blocking the future with money or people/roster issues. Not sure how this would do that, but I can see how it could improve the potentially awful bench/starters this team might run out for a year or so more.....and Oakland got rid of more than 1 player.

[The Wise One]

My point was that you should try to get better at every position every year, as long as you are not blocking the future with money or people/roster issues. Not sure how this would do that, but I can see how it could improve the potentially awful bench/starters this team might run out for a year or so more.....and Oakland got rid of more than 1 player.

 

Well you should be getting better. Is a .662 OPS as an outfielder really any better over the course of a season? Is one quarter win better for a season worth the commitment?

[Mike Sixel]

Depends on the commitment, right? And I have no idea what they are currently planning for bench, CF, LF, defenisve OF specialist right now, so it is hard for me to say if he's better.....Your analysis of his hitting ignores defense and baserunning. Also, if you can have 1 guy be the primary backup for multiple spots, you can be more interesting with the rest of the bench. I have no idea if this is a good idea or not. But I also am not liking the OF defense at all right now.....and maybe he can help with that.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-suddenly-popular-emilio-bonifacio/

[ScottyB]

I firmly believe the Twins need one more quality bat added to the lineup, and unless I am completely missing something here, the addition of Morales as a DH backup 1B makes so much sense, affordable sense, that I find it almost mind boggling its not done yet.

 

It hasn't happened because the Twins don't want to give up the 2nd round draft pick or pay his demands for a backup 1B and part-time DH.

 

Oh, and for those questioning $3M for Bonifacio, that's Nick Punto money.

[Mike Sixel]

a win in free agency costs 6-7MM......do we think he's .5 WAR? do we think our R is really worth zero?

[Danchat]

I'd really like to add Bonifacio to our bench. He could push Plouffe and back up all the outfield spots. I think he's worth the $3M, I just wouldn't pay him anything more than that. I am afraid that his hitting could fade, but his speed compensates for that. If we can get him, Parmelee is likely screwed.

[Jham]

Players like Bonifacio are almost always tradeable in July for cash and low to mid-range prospects which make signing him even less of a risk. Signing a player like Boney who seems like a gamer willing to play multiple positions, come of the bench, steal bases, etc. seems like a good move to me. Best case, we pay half the contract and acquire some more talent in return. Will it make us a contender? No. But a series of similar savvy moves that continuously deepens the organizational talent pool will given time.

[nicksaviking]

Bonifacio career OPS .662

Presley .715

Better place discipline. Over 300 ab Bonifacio would be on base 5 more times, but Presley is more likely to start in scoring position.

 

While I'm not a big Presley fan, I think it's safe to say he'll be making the team regardless of any bench pieces added. You need to compare Bonifacio to Mastroianni and/or Escobar. If it's OPS you want (from a utility guy? I simply hope to get him on base) those two need to be purged from the discussion.

[The Wise One]

a win in free agency costs 6-7MM......do we think he's .5 WAR? do we think our R is really worth zero?

 

His WAR value probably comes from his ability a 2B.

The fangraphs article said that he is worse than average at short, third and center. Worse than average with a bat. The money isn't the issue. The issue is at positions other than 2B does he hurt the team? The fielding numbers one Baseball Reference would say yes. The notion that he would push players at the other positions is not provable with what has been written. If you need a backup 2B and a disaster plan (last option) for other positions, by all means claim him.

[jokin]

It hasn't happened because the Twins don't want to give up the 2nd round draft pick or pay his demands for a backup 1B and part-time DH.

 

Oh, and for those questioning $3M for Bonifacio, that's Nick Punto money.

 

Anyone looking at Morales should not be signing him with the expectation that he would be a part-time DH, Morales's contract demands are based on expectations of playing regularly. He's a switch hitter with nearly career and 2013 identical splits. He played in 156 games last year, only 4 as a PH.

[jokin]

His WAR value probably comes from his ability a 2B.

Worse than average with a bat.

 

Not entirely true in either sentence when taken in full context, but 2nd is his best position. His potential value also comes from:

 

an OBP of .331 w/ a BA of .269 since 2010 - overall league average over that time actually is only .318 OBP/.253 BA, and league average at 2B since 2010 is .319 OBP/.257 BA (by contrast, Dozier has a career OBP of .297/.240 BA and only .312/.244 in 2013),

 

roster-extending high positional and hitting flexibility,

 

and especially, as the Petriello Fangraphs article notes, he is tied for the 7th most valuable baserunner since 2010, even with much fewer than average PAs,

 

if he hits his averages since 2010 (.331/.267), based on ZIPS projections, he would easily lead the team in SB, be second in BA and third in OBP.

 

He's a DFA because he is far from a perfect player, that doesn't mean that he doesn't offer value to a team in the right situation.

 

Here's a prediction: LA or NY will pick him up.

[The Wise One]

Not entirely true in either sentence when taken in full context, but 2nd is his best position. His potential value also comes from:

 

an OBP of .331 w/ a BA of .269 since 2010 - overall league average over that time actually is only .318 OBP/.253 BA, and league average at 2B since 2010 is .319 OBP/.257 BA (by contrast, Dozier has a career OBP of .297/.240 BA and only .312/.244 in 2013),

 

roster-extending high positional and hitting flexibility,

 

and especially, as the Petriello Fangraphs article notes, he is tied for the 7th most valuable baserunner since 2010, even with much fewer than average PAs,

 

if he hits his averages since 2010 (.331/.267), based on ZIPS projections, he would easily lead the team in SB, be second in BA and third in OBP.

 

He's a DFA because he is far from a perfect player, that doesn't mean that he doesn't offer value to a team in the right situation.

 

Here's a prediction: LA or NY will pick him up.

 

Below average defense, below average hitting ability. If he regresses to his mean, he will be a .265 hitter. Singles, walks, litte power. You can read stats better than what you chose to present to see how almost every Twins batter has a beter OPS. .

The valueo emilio is as a backup 2b, so his glove does not hurt you. Otaining a 3b, rf and shortstop are a far larger prioriy that would generatea far better outcome than a utility player.

Golly gee, the Dodgrs and the Yankees need a backup or a starter at 2b. Considering what the Dodgers gave up for Butera, the Twins will not overbid compared to the Dodgers..

[stringer bell]

You're probably right Jokin, although the Dodgers have signed two utility infielder types already this offseason. Here is what I see--Bonafacio is a good baserunner (undeniable), he's capable at second, better defensively than what the Twins have playing either corner OF spot, and his hitting is OBP-fueled and is marginal. Marginal is adequate for someone who brings his versatility. Bonus questions: Can he be a platoon alternative at third and short? Can he handle center field? If the answers are positive to the two bonus questions, then yes the Twins should pick him up. If he could raise his offense a tick or two, then he should be in the lineup almost every day somewhere.,

[jokin]

Below average defense, below average hitting ability. If he regresses to his mean, he will be a .265 hitter. Singles, walks, litte power. You can read stats better than what you chose to present to see how almost every Twins batter has a beter OPS. .

The valueo emilio is as a backup 2b, so his glove does not hurt you. Otaining a 3b, rf and shortstop are a far larger prioriy that would generatea far better outcome than a utility player.

Golly gee, the Dodgrs and the Yankees need a backup or a starter at 2b. Considering what the Dodgers gave up for Butera, the Twins will not overbid compared to the Dodgers..

 

Since you chose the stat, you failed to point out that regression to the mean for his BA, to .265, fits in right in the same ballpark as the projected .267 BA that I quoted.... which again..

 

would qualify as the second highest projected BA on the team, along with the 3rd highest projected OBP. The Twins desperately need someone, anyone, at the top of the order or in the 9 spot that could give you an OBP at .331.

 

OPS is not really a part of this discussion, that can come from the middle of the lineup.

 

The part you also chose to ignore is that Bonifacio's potential role is that he can be plugged into multiple positions to spell his teammates at 6 positions and perform close to acceptably in the field at those various spots, meanwhile, giving your team higher net OBP, plus the 7th best baserunner in the league over the last 4 years, which makes up for much of his lack of SLG.

[darin617]

Too bad the Twins don't believe in the stolen base. You would think an average manager could figure out if you don't have much power at all you need to rely on speed to help manufacture runs. So it would be a waste of time to bring him in if you don't take advantage of his best asset.

[jokin]

Too bad the Twins don't believe in the stolen base. You would think an average manager could figure out if you don't have much power at all you need to rely on speed to help manufacture runs. So it would be a waste of time to bring him in if you don't take advantage of his best asset.

 

 

To be fair, Bonifacio is also good at taking the extra base, and Gardy is agressive in that respect. And it seems like he has granted latitude to those that have demonstrated skill sets.

[The Wise One]

Since you chose the stat, you failed to point out that regression to the mean for his BA, to .265, fits in right in the same ballpark as the projected .267 BA that I quoted.... which again..

 

would qualify as the second highest projected BA on the team, along with the 3rd highest projected OBP. The Twins desperately need someone, anyone, at the top of the order or in the 9 spot that could give you an OBP at .331.

 

OPS is not really a part of this discussion, that can come from the middle of the lineup.

 

The part you also chose to ignore is that Bonifacio's potential role is that he can be plugged into multiple positions to spell his teammates at 6 positions and perform close to acceptably in the field at those various spots, meanwhile, giving your team higher net OBP, plus the 7th best baserunner in the league over the last 4 years, which makes up for much of his lack of SLG.

 

How about WPA for a stat then? What does the player contribute? -1.63 for Bonafacio. Puts him behind all 2013 Twins except Hicks and Florimon.

[stringer bell]

Too bad the Twins don't believe in the stolen base. You would think an average manager could figure out if you don't have much power at all you need to rely on speed to help manufacture runs. So it would be a waste of time to bring him in if you don't take advantage of his best asset.

I'll defend Gardy here. I am sure that he believes in the stolen base, but under the right circumstances. The Twins have precious little speed to play with and most analysts says that a 75% success rate is the threshold to be an asset. The Twins have few players who can steal at a 75% clip, so there's that. The game situation has to be right and the Twins trailed big often in the last three years. Adding someone who can steal well above 75% of his attempts at the top or bottom of the order would be a good thing, and something that Gardenhire would use properly, IMHO.

[stringer bell]

BTW, if the Twins have some speed to be "harvested", it should happen this year. They have added one of the best baserunners ever to the coaching staff.

[jokin]

How about WPA for a stat then? What does the player contribute? -1.63 for Bonafacio. Puts him behind all 2013 Twins except Hicks and Florimon.

 

 

No question, that Bonifacio's time with the Blue Jays was a disaster, but other than that time in Toronto, his WPA is positive over the last 4 years, but this clearly is a stat that does little to reward the types of things that Bonifacio brings to the table. And more importantly, Fangraphs itself says this is an improper use of drawing an opinion on a player from its statistic:

 

 

Things to Remember:

● WPA is not highly predictive. Generally, it is not used for player analysis and projecting the future. Cumulatively, season-long WPA is also not predictive, making it an ineffective number for projections of a player’s talent.

 

[The Wise One]

No question, that Bonifacio's time with the Blue Jays was a disaster, but other than that time in Toronto, his WPA is positive over the last 4 years, but this clearly is a stat that does little to reward the types of things that Bonifacio brings to the table. And more importantly, Fangraphs itself says this is an improper use of drawing an opinion on a player from its statistic:

 

 

Things to Remember:

● WPA is not highly predictive. Generally, it is not used for player analysis and projecting the future. Cumulatively, season-long WPA is also not predictive, making it an ineffective number for projections of a player’s talent.

 

 

I did not use the statistic to measure future success. As you might have read WPA measures what has happened on a play by play basis. You cited a 2013 batting average compared to the Twins players as a reason to take on this player. I gave you a statistic that was more inclusive of what a player has done for the year and used it to compare what players contributed for that year. There is no upside to this kind of signing. He is a substitute utility player. There is no upside. I would rather they sign a career minor league player coming of a bad season or two that had the upside of being average.

Every past statistic on Bonifacio would show that his value is base running and playing second base. The Twins have Dozier. The pinch running duties could fall to any number of Twins players that ride the bench under the tutelage of Molitor except for Parmalee/Collabello survivor.

[stringer bell]

Bonifacio has played 136 games at third base and 198 in the outfield, his only value is not as a second baseman. He offers a likely leadoff hitter and someone with plus baserunning skills, including speed. That he is capable of playing six positions and is better defensively than three of the Twins' incumbents gives him unique value to the Twins. As noted above, he isn't going to put the Twins over the top in the division race, but for $3M he can improve the club. I think it is worth it, if the Twins wouldn't have to part with an A or B prospect.

[Riverbrian]

Decent points on both sides.

 

I still believe he's perfect for the Twins.

 

He can push Plouffe at 3B until Sano can take over.

 

When Sano does take over OR Plouffe proves that he can and should play everyday. Bonofacio can move to another position.

 

He can also play CF. If Hicks doesn't make the club out of ST... We don't have a lot of CF'ers.

 

We need speed... Not for stolen bases... Just speed... We don't have speed. He has speed and we need speed.

 

He isn't as bad defensively as some are saying.

 

He's perfect for us... Go get him Terry Ryan.

[cmathewson]

Meh. One season out of 10 with an OPS+ above 100. Eight seasons out of 10 with an OPS+ below 80. You can't steal first base. Pass.