Chris Capuano

[jokin]

What with all of this talk about the remaining FA SPs, most recently circling back to soon-to-be 37, soft-tosser, Bronson Arroyo, how is it that 35 year old, slightly-harder-throwing, Chris Capuano's name hasn't come up more often?

 

He's an available and able left-hander for a rotation mostly devoid of those traits, he was throwing big innings as recently as 2011 and 2012, he has much better stuff (although definitely less durable) than Arroyo, his velocity actually increased in 2013, probably still has some Midwestern ties from his 7-year stint in the Brewers organization...... and he's looking for a one-year deal....probably at a discount?

 

Is there any reason why the Twns shouldn't be actively considering Capuano?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/explaining-the-chris-capuano-bargain/

[AHSaves]

I would totally sign Capuano over Arroyo. I understand the durability pro and con for both players. But sign Capuano, keep Meyer and May in AAA for most of the year and/or trade Correia for prospects.

[nicksaviking]

Capuano only requires one year. That's kind of what I'm looking for in pitching at this point.

[Otwins]

I don't think durability is as big an issue on your fifth free agent starting pitcher signing. There should be someone ready to step into the slot if he gets hurt. I like the idea better than Arroyo, Santana or Jimenez. Need a left hander, does not cost a draft pick and on a one year deal is moveable if he pitches well and the Twins drop out of contention.

[zchrz]

Theoretically Meyer and Gibson should both claim spots at some point this year with guys like May in the mix as well, there are already 3 multi year contracts pretty much locked into the rotation so the 5th spot and Correia are already going to have to make way for the kids at some point. So Deduno, Worley, Diamond, ect can hold the 5th spot until a rookie claims its and maybe they will have built up a little bit of trade value in the process. I don't see a need to bring in another mediocre starter at this point, if they went nuts and signed Ubaldo I would be happy but no real need to add any starters at this point.

[jokin]

Theoretically Meyer and Gibson should both claim spots at some point this year with guys like May in the mix as well, there are already 3 multi year contracts pretty much locked into the rotation so the 5th spot and Correia are already going to have to make way for the kids at some point. So Deduno, Worley, Diamond, ect can hold the 5th spot until a rookie claims its and maybe they will have built up a little bit of trade value in the process. I don't see a need to bring in another mediocre starter at this point, if they went nuts and signed Ubaldo I would be happy but no real need to add any starters at this point.

 

Subtract Correia by trade in Spring Training and you have the same contract alignment, but more cheaply, a pitcher superior to Correia, and you gain a new wrinkle to the Rotation by adding the missing Lefty, whose handedness could be another desirable attribute as a flipping prospect.

[oldguy10]

Many say trade Correia and imply that it is a given that teams would want him, I do not think it is that simple. Do not most teams already have a Correia type pitcher on their rosters? I believe that is the case so why would they need another one? Perhaps later in the season but not to start the campaign, at least that is my analysis of the situation.

[josecordoba]

You're right. It's not that Correia has zero value. He perhaps gets you a moderate upside Low A. It's just I don't really see the fascination with trading a albeit limited starting pitcher with one year on a cheap contract to sign a similar type pitcher.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Many say trade Correia and imply that it is a given that teams would want him, I do not think it is that simple. Do not most teams already have a Correia type pitcher on their rosters? I believe that is the case so why would they need another one? Perhaps later in the season but not to start the campaign, at least that is my analysis of the situation.

 

Why give up a prospect for a guy like Correia when you can go get a guy like Capuano for only money?

 

I think the "trade Correia" crowd might be taking a few things for granted. It'd be nice to see it happen, I'm just not sure it's possible at this point.

[PseudoSABR]

Correia is only going to have value during the season, when pitchers begin to go down with injury, and the upside of guys like Capuano vanishes. Correia's healthy mediocrity has value, but it's at its lowest point during the offseason when the wish of semi-injured players seems material.

[Jim H]

I said it on another thread and I will say it here as well. Trading Correia makes little sense. He is the 2nd best pitcher on the staff going into ST, he has limited trade value at this point, and he is as likely to be one of your top 5 pitchers during the coming season as anyone not named Nolasco. He may or may not pitch well during the coming season, but trading him now(if you even could) makes little sense.

[Rosterman]

You can never have too much pitching. And spring training would let you know if you want the Guerrier or Capuano or stay with the Worley or Tonkin. If the contract is inexpensive enough, you can eat some money (Hey, who was that reliever the Twins gave $750,000 to who threw in one game and blew out his arm...in spring training?

[oldguy10]

That is a rhetorical question I am sure but just who was it? I am sure this has happened many times with various teams hasn't it? And who will blow out their arms this spring with various teams? I'd say maybe even a half-dozen or so, just the nature of the beast.

 

Here is another scenario that begs an answer - Say the Twins are terrible, I posit that they trade anyone that will put a contender over the top if they get the right youngsters and/or prospects. This includes Mauer or their best pitcher at this point including Perkins, but not Sano or Buxton.

[nicksaviking]

Correia is only going to have value during the season, when pitchers begin to go down with injury, and the upside of guys like Capuano vanishes. Correia's healthy mediocrity has value, but it's at its lowest point during the offseason when the wish of semi-injured players seems material.

 

Yup, I agree, though plenty of pitchers go down preseason or show up to camp with a medical issue more serious than originally thought. An in season or preseason trade of Correia makes sense anyway unless the team is actually planning on handing Meyer or Gibson a sport right out of the gate.

 

Of course an in season trade only works if Correia overachieves like he did last year. I think many of us have forgotten how low our expectations for him were last year. If he pitches to those expectations, then DFA will be more likely than a trade.

[Danchat]

I would have liked to sign Capuano instead of Pelfrey... but as it stands, Arroyo is definitely better than Capuano. Arroyo has had something like 10 straight seasons with 190 IP and an ERA under 4.00 in 4 out of the last 5 years. Unless Correia is gone, I don't think we can sign either Capuano or Arroyo.

[jokin]

That is a rhetorical question I am sure but just who was it? I am sure this has happened many times with various teams hasn't it?

 

And who will blow out their arms this spring with various teams? I'd say maybe even a half-dozen or so, just the nature of the beast.

 

Exactly my argument on the timing for trading Correia, his low-cost, one-year contract may become very desirable to a team during Spring Training when the need for a healthy arm suddenly arises, it seems reasonable that they might be willing to trade a semi-decent prospect currently in A ball to land a 5th SP coming off of an injury-free year.

[jokin]

I would have liked to sign Capuano instead of Pelfrey... but as it stands, Arroyo is definitely better than Capuano. Arroyo has had something like 10 straight seasons with 190 IP and an ERA under 4.00 in 4 out of the last 5 years. Unless Correia is gone, I don't think we can sign either Capuano or Arroyo.

 

Yup. That's why all of the reports in the media that the Twins have continued to pursue Arroyo have been head-scratchers- unless- they have been fairly certain that they can move Correia for a reasonable return.

[jokin]

Correia is only going to have value during the season, when pitchers begin to go down with injury, and the upside of guys like Capuano vanishes. Correia's healthy mediocrity has value, but it's at its lowest point during the offseason when the wish of semi-injured players seems material.

 

I would counter by surmising that his value may never be higher than during Spring Training this year, when the unforseen injury knocks down a pitcher that was being counted on by another team., and Option B (C, D) is less palatable than Correia.

[DocBauer]

I had Capuano on my " cheap flyer" list before Pelfrey signing. Despite a sub .500 win percentage, his peripherals are ok and when he has a healthy year he tends to log pretty good innings.

 

And I am in the camp of firm belief Correia WILL have tradeable value sometime during ST. There is always a team that missed out, gambled on someone, or has someone hurt or rehabbing and not ready. The Twins could even afford to eat a portion of the contract and still turn out fine. And to another team, they should see his contract as not only affordable, but it's only one year.

 

While not against a Capuano signing in the least, and while I'd love to see a LH in the rotation, I don't feel at this time, the team still in rebuild mode, that we have to have said LH just for the sake of such.

 

With the Garza signing probably setting the market at a lower bar than previously anticipated, I have changed my tune on E Santana. I feel this is one time where I would give up that 2nd round pick and go for a 3 year deal with the better pitcher even if another RH. Correia can still be traded. Pelfrey is only 2 seasons. And if/when Gibson and Meyer are BOTH ready, I can't believe we couldn't find a trade partner for one of our other signed SP.

 

Also not opposed still to a cheap flyer on Johan regardless. To me, make the draft pick sacrifice, sign E Santana but like Capuano as a second option.

 

Still want us to sign the bat of Morales and one of the solid utility guys out there in addition, but that's a different discussion.

[jokin]

I had Capuano on my " cheap flyer" list before Pelfrey signing. Despite a sub .500 win percentage, his peripherals are ok and when he has a healthy year he tends to log pretty good innings.

 

And I am in the camp of firm belief Correia WILL have tradeable value sometime during ST. There is always a team that missed out, gambled on someone, or has someone hurt or rehabbing and not ready. The Twins could even afford to eat a portion of the contract and still turn out fine. And to another team, they should see his contract as not only affordable, but it's only one year.

 

While not against a Capuano signing in the least, and while I'd love to see a LH in the rotation, I don't feel at this time, the team still in rebuild mode, that we have to have said LH just for the sake of such.

 

I have changed my tune on E Santana. I feel this is one time where I would give up that 2nd round pick and go for a 3 year deal with the better pitcher even if another RH. Correia can still be traded. Pelfrey is only 2 seasons. And if/when Gibson and Meyer are BOTH ready, I can't believe we couldn't find a trade partner for one of our other signed SP.

 

Also not opposed still to a cheap flyer on Johan regardless. To me, make the draft pick sacrifice, sign E Santana but like Capuano as a second option.

 

Still want us to sign the bat of Morales and one of the solid utility guys out there in addition, but that's a different discussion.

 

 

I'm on board with you Doc, on all three moves, and Capuano, too- obviously, I want more success on the field sooner, rather than later. I can only surmise that Deron Johnson and the braintrust are convinced that the draft is so deep this year- ie, the 2nd and 3rd round picks in 2014, plus the high-end 1st round pick in 2015 (as the result of yet another 90+ loss season), project to be the better overall value, at a fraction of the initial outlay on each, for the long run.

[jokin]

Quote from today's MLB Traderumors, hopefully Terry Ryan factors this type of further statistical grist to the mill to the point that he is still considering Capuano as an option:

 

The Steamer projection system, however, projects that Capuano will be approximately as valuable as Bronson Arroyo...... Tim Hudson ....... or Phil Hughes!

 

Time to scoop up the bargains as the prices are falling?

 

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/al-west-notes-garza-ortiz-appel.html

[ScottyB]

That is a rhetorical question I am sure but just who was it?

 

Joel Zumaya, late of the Tigers. And the flamethrower didn't get into a game, he blew out his arm warming up in the bullpen after having had two surgeries. He'd been out of baseball all of 2011 and was attempting to come back with the Twins in 2012.

[jokin]

Now that Paul Maholm has signed with the Dodgers for a one year base salary of $1.5M plus incentives to $6.5M, that leaves Capuano as a prime candidate left in the bargain range for LHSP still available. It seems that prices are falling further and Capuano is available at a discounted price to Maholm. Still no indication that the Twins are interested. Can they really be finished shopping, what with all of that talk that they still were willing to spend big $$$ and that they were going to get a higher-end 4th FASP?

 

I don't see them in on any of the high-end guys. Seems that if you can get Capuano on a $1.5M base salary + incentives you can't go wrong- and they really need a Lefty.

[Shane Wahl]

I would have signed Capuano instead of Pelfrey. For what that's worth (nothing).

[Riverbrian]

I've always liked Capuano... When the Dodgers added their 23rd starter before 2013 began and nobody knew what they would do with superfluous starters like Capuano and Lilly... I wanted the Twins to try and trade for him last year.

 

Now... Well... I'd love to have him but I don't want to lose Deduno, Worley or Diamond just yet.

[jokin]

I've always liked Capuano... When the Dodgers added their 23rd starter before 2013 began and nobody knew what they would do with superfluous starters like Capuano and Lilly... I wanted the Twins to try and trade for him last year.

 

Now... Well... I'd love to have him but I don't want to lose Deduno, Worley or Diamond just yet.

 

The Bronson Arroyo=Phil Hughes=Chris Capuano projections from multiple services for 2014 boggles my mind. 60-day DL Deduno, let Worley get a shot in the Pen and see if the Braves want Diamond back.

[Riverbrian]

The Bronson Arroyo=Phil Hughes=Chris Capuano projections from multiple services for 2014 boggles my mind. 60-day DL Deduno, let Worley get a shot in the Pen and see if the Braves want Diamond back.

 

There are days that I wish I had your confidence and conviction.

 

Diamond was a pleasant surprise in 2012. That shakes my let him go world.

[stringer bell]

The prudent thing to do is to let the out-of-options guys fight for a roster spot, hoping that someone likes what they see and makes a decent offer for one of them. So much can happen that could impact roster spots for them.

[jokin]

From MLB Traderumors: More breakdown on Arroyo and his contract relative to other pitchers out there http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/02/paul-maholm-and-the-starting-pitching-market.html

 

In a nutshell, the theory is, the offseason market has fallen so low for mid-/back-end-rotation starters, that LHSP Chris Capuano might now be available for LHSP Jeff Francis-type guaranteed money ($1.5M in 2013).

 

 

"If not, though, Maholm's deal doesn't bode well for a pitcher like lefty free agent Chris Capuano. Capuano's value has been similar to Vargas or Maholm the past three seasons (with 4.8 total fWAR)................

 

Given Capuano's tendency to pitch reasonably strong innings when healthy, though, he could give his next team great value. Maholm's contract could be a bargain for the Dodgers, and the team that picks up Capuano could be in line for a bargain as well."

[jokin]

The Red Sox replace the 2013 $13.25M Ryan Dempster-debacle with a dumpster-dive-plunder in Chris Capuano- for only 1 yr/$2.25M base with incentives to $5M.

 

With Paul Maholm getting potentially $6.5M, and Capuano projected to comp more closely to Arroyo, Hudson and Hughes, it's a shame that a team short a LHSP, didn't more seriously consider this low-risk option.