You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/2644-Turning-The-Power-Back-On

Excellent analysis. Thanks!

His health will play a big part in any improvement the Twins make early in the season. If he is healthy, I suspect he may spend the second half with another team.

Great article. Maybe Willingham should be told to not attempt any more steals.

Great article. Maybe Willingham should be told to not attempt any more steals.

 

Or play in the outfield

I have theorized that his stance was just a little more open and it looked like he was trying to pull the ball. This would also make him weak on the outside pitches. In 2012 it looked like he was planning to hit the ball up the middle but he just naturally has a power pull swing. In 2013 it looked like he was trying to pull it. This "cheating move" could easily be a result of a sore knee.

His standard fly ball distance dropped from 279 feet to 265 feet on average

 

This is just a 5% drop. Not sure that it is significant enough

 

I hope that he rebounds, but one has to consider his age and the fact that he is on the down curve of his career

This is just a 5% drop. Not sure that it is significant enough

 

It is and I should probably elaborate on that statistic since it is behind a paywall. 272 feet the MLB average for all hitters on fly balls. For a frame of reference, Chris Davis led baseball with 300 feet on average on his fly balls. In that stat, it counts all fly balls: infield and outfield. Willingham hits a ton of infield fly balls so his fly ball distance number over his career has been slightly above average than some of the other players who have similar power figures.

 

Being able to remove infield flies from that figure we find that Willingham's outfield fly ball distance differences are even more pronounced:

 

2013 - 267

2012 - 289

2011 - 288

2010 - 273

 

Notice the significant decline in distance between the two healthy years (2012, 2011) compared to the two injured seasons (2013, 2010). Don't get me wrong -- 5% is probably a usual rise-and-fall among players over different seasons but knowing there is an injury explains why the drop-off (sort of like knowing a pitcher had a shoulder injury and seeing a 2% decline in velocity).

 

I hope that helps explain it better.

It is and I should probably elaborate on that statistic since it is behind a paywall. 272 feet the MLB average for all hitters on fly balls. For a frame of reference, Chris Davis led baseball with 300 feet on average on his fly balls. In that stat, it counts all fly balls: infield and outfield. Willingham hits a ton of infield fly balls so his fly ball distance number over his career has been slightly above average than some of the other players who have similar power figures.

 

Being able to remove infield flies from that figure we find that Willingham's outfield fly ball distance differences are even more pronounced:

 

2013 - 267

2012 - 289

2011 - 288

2010 - 273

 

Notice the significant decline in distance between the two healthy years (2012, 2011) compared to the two injured seasons (2013, 2010). Don't get me wrong -- 5% is probably a usual rise-and-fall among players over different seasons but knowing there is an injury explains why the drop-off (sort of like knowing a pitcher had a shoulder injury and seeing a 2% decline in velocity).

 

I hope that helps explain it better.

 

Yeah that makes sense. Thanks. And it also makes sense to get rid of IFBs as well because those are miss-hits

Maybe the fact that this is a potential contract year for Willingham will make a difference too.

Never underestimate the power of the contract year. I'd take the over on 20 HR based on this fact alone, not to mention the fact that there is a serious lack of available power hitters coming through FA in recent years (unless you want to pay +$100M). He could probably get a nice deal if he hits 25+ bombs and OPS's over .875. With a good to decent year, Josh could possibly double his career earnings with his next contract. But a poor year could mean struggling to find a job in 2015 - how's that for motivation!

In terms of wOBA from players 33 and older since 2011, Hammer ranks between Carlos Beltran and Paul Konerko. He has been the least durable, and obviously the knee is a big question mark, but if he puts together 550-600 PAs I think the Twins should offer a QO and try to extend him. He is a perfect fit.

In terms of wOBA from players 33 and older since 2011, Hammer ranks between Carlos Beltran and Paul Konerko. He has been the least durable, and obviously the knee is a big question mark, but if he puts together 550-600 PAs I think the Twins should offer a QO and try to extend him. He is a perfect fit.

 

$13M a season for an aging DH? The fact that they got a younger, better version of Willingham for $7M makes me think that this would not be a smart move. I don't see him being much better than Plouffe in the future and Plouffe could be a capable replacement. If you are looking for power at the DH spot, Vargas would be an even better replacement couple years down the road. There is a pipeline of talent there (in addition to the aforementioned, Harrison, DJ Hicks, Walker, Kepler et. al.) and does not make sense to block it by re-signing Willingham. Plouffe can be a bridge to that talent in 2015.

 

Best case scenario: Willingham has a monster season, the Twins make the post season and he rides into the sunset after this season.