Baseball prospectus rankings

[gunnarthor]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22670

 

Buxton - 1

Sano - 14

Meyer - 32

Stewart - 54

Pinto - 56

Rosario - 60

Berrios - 75

Thorpe - 101

 

Eight players is pretty good. Astros had 5, Red Sox 6, Cubs and Pirates 7.

 

Surprised on how low Sano and Stewart were.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

I'm surprised about Sano's ranking too, but the overall presence on the list speaks well of the system's depth. To have the Twins system represent about 1/13 of the list in a league of 30 teams is not bad.

[Seth Stohs]

Sano at 14 is kind of silly, in my opinion. But, that is the beauty of these types of lists. For us to argue about.

[halfchest]

Pinto and Rosario are higher than I expected. Sano and and Stewart seem a bit lower than I would have thought, especially Sano.

[Steve Penz]

Sano at 14 is kind of silly, in my opinion. But, that is the beauty of these types of lists. For us to argue about.

 

Its not a concern for me because the whole world besides this list puts him at 2,3, or 4. It would be interesting to hear them explain their reasons. 2 or 14, he is still going to mash.

[PseudoSABR]

I wonder if Sano's health played a concern, as it's only recently that our own worries about his shoulder have been assuaged.

[Siehbiscuit]

Sano at 14 is definitely the outlier and Stewart has all the talent to be a star, but he has to pitch full season ball to earn top30 territory in my opinion. Pinto, at 56, seems very high to me. Seeing Berrios at 75 gives me more and more confidence.

[Brock Beauchamp]

An odd list, for sure. Sano at 14, Berrios/Rosario behind Pinto.

 

*scratches head*

[bird]

Some things that stick out to me:

 

1. Pinto is the 4th-highest ranked catcher at #56.

2. Five of the top seven prospects are SS's, 9 in total, which bodes well for finding an alternative to Florimon via trade in the near future.

3. Compared to our 8 selections, Detroit (1, #37), Chicago (2, #'s 67 and 93), and Cleveland (2, #'s 6 and 36) have a total of 5.

4. KC has four pitchers on the list, three in the top 50, and 7 prospects in all. Watch out for KC!

5. According to this list, we have six prospects beter than Chicago's best. Wow, those poor White Sox fans.

[johnnydakota]

Well lets look at Sano at 14, he struggled in AA, then got hurt, or was hurt during the season,

so to me this is ok, it just means he will have to show he is healthy and can adjust to better pitchers. at least he didnt go from #4 to off the list. Remember 1 in 4 prospect make it , and even less become stars, I think Sano will have a good career, but wether or not it is Miggy type or a Dunn type , only time will tell

 

Go Sano

[nothink]

If you just look at the position players ahead of Sano, it makes quite a bit of sense that he's at 14.

 

There's Taveras, who pretty much everyone agrees is the best offensive prospect in the minor, and is on par with Sano defensively in that he can maybe play center, but will probably end up in a corner.

 

The rest are Buxton and shortstops, who are likely to provide (even if they have to move to third) way more defensive value than Sano. While some of their ultimate offensive ceilings might not be quite as high, those guys all look like safer bets to hit than Sano.

 

Only Baez, whose power is on par with Sano's, has shown anything close to Sano's strikeout issues. The guys who can consistently hit over .260 while striking out in more than a quarter of their at bats are extremely rare. Sano seems to have the power and patience to make up for a low BA, but there's obviously a chance he ends up a Pedro Alvarez type.

 

The guys ahead of him all have higher defensive projections and (Baez excepted) more well-rounded offensive games. Sano's closest comparable in the minors is Kris Bryant, who is similarly ranked at #17.

[cmathewson]

Well lets look at Sano at 14, he struggled in AA, then got hurt, or was hurt during the season,

so to me this is ok, it just means he will have to show he is healthy and can adjust to better pitchers.

 

For a 20 year old to put up a .915 OPS with 19 HRs in 67 games in AA is not struggling. The last time the Twins have had a 20 year old put up comparable numbers as AA, he was the consensus number 1 overall prospect in baseball. Of course, I'm talking about Mauer's .853 in 2003. The difference is, Mauer got his numbers through OBP (.400), whereas Sano got his numbers through slugging (.571).

 

One other thing: Sano's numbers at Fort Myers were off the charts .320/.424/.655/1.079. Relative to that league, where offense goes to die, it's like a 1.200 OPS. By contrast, Joe's first half of his 20-year old year, he put up a pedestrian .807 OPS. Sano only "struggled" in AA in reference to his otherworldly numbers at high A.

 

He should be at least a top 5 prospect.

[acrozelle]

I won't just straight up copy and paste, but someone asked about Sano's low ranking in the comments section, saying that he was surprised he wasn't in the top 5. Jason Parks replied and said he has too many questions about Sano's hit tool and defensive profile to rank him in the top 5 - Might have to sacrifice power to make consistent contact. He could still hit 30+ homers a season, but the power might not play to it's full potential.

[cmathewson]

I won't just straight up copy and paste, but someone asked about Sano's low ranking in the comments section, saying that he was surprised he wasn't in the top 5. Jason Parks replied and said he has too many questions about Sano's hit tool and defensive profile to rank him in the top 5 - Might have to sacrifice power to make consistent contact. He could still hit 30+ homers a season, but the power might not play to it's full potential.

 

Again, he hit .340 as a 20-year old in a league full of college kids.

[gunnarthor]

I don't have a huge problem with Sano's ranking. I think Buxton is clearly #1 and Bogaerts/OT #2/3. Then I think there are about 8 guys you can put into 4-12 into any reasonable order and I was a bit surprised not to see Sano in there. But BP seems to have done a run of shortstops and RHP before Sano. Sano's still the top ranked thirdbaseman and BP knocked a bunch of high k guys a bit - Bryant and Springer.

[JB_Iowa]

Nobody should have any problem with any of the rankings.

 

Rankings are always just someone's opinion. The only thing that matters is what happens when they play (as long as they keep their noses relatively clean off the field).

[Turd Furgeson]

Sano's "low" ranking would probably have to do with some of the contact struggles he had in AA. It's a legitimate concern, because it will make or break his career.

 

I also think Parks overvalues Lindor here, and probably a few of the pitching prospects. Most lists will have Sano either in the top 5 or top 10.

[johnnydakota]

For a 20 year old to put up a .915 OPS with 19 HRs in 67 games in AA is not struggling. The last time the Twins have had a 20 year old put up comparable numbers as AA, he was the consensus number 1 overall prospect in baseball. Of course, I'm talking about Mauer's .853 in 2003. The difference is, Mauer got his numbers through OBP (.400), whereas Sano got his numbers through slugging (.571).

 

One other thing: Sano's numbers at Fort Myers were off the charts .320/.424/.655/1.079. Relative to that league, where offense goes to die, it's like a 1.200 OPS. By contrast, Joe's first half of his 20-year old year, he put up a pedestrian .807 OPS. Sano only "struggled" in AA in reference to his otherworldly numbers at high A.

 

He should be at least a top 5 prospect.

 

 

He raked against the bottom 3rd pitchers and struggled against the top 3rd....

and if you say he didnt struggle , why did he drop 11 places?

[Turd Furgeson]

I'm actually impressed that Miguel ended the season with a .230 batting average. It was hovering around .100 for about the first two weeks.

[johnnydakota]

I'm actually impressed that Miguel ended the season with a .230 batting average. It was hovering around .100 for about the first two weeks.

 

That is a very good sign , I was just trying to explain his drop on the list....Sano and all players will struggle at times during there careers, the good ones adjust , those who dont , end up have very short careers...Me thinks Miguel will have a long career...

[B Richard]

I personally like Sano more than Baez. Baez is older by 6 months and doesn't walk nearly as much. Sano has a better command of the strike zone, IMO. That's something that makes him more likely to have sustained success at the MLB level

[Jim Crikket]

Put me down with the people who aren't concerned about Sano's ranking. If you're in the top 20 or so of this list, you're there because you have All-Star type of ceilings. If one guy sees a possible red flag in Sano's season last year and another guy discounts it, that's fine.

 

We're on the verge of reaching the point where his ranking doesn't mean crap anyway. It's time (finally) to see what he can do on the field with Big League ballplayers.

[iTwins]

Sano at 14 strikes me as peculiar, but I'm just pleased the Twins have 8 guys on the list. There's a lot of talent in this system, and as a fan, I'm eager to see it develop. (Plus we can't complain too much, we do have the #1 overall prospect...)

[Oxtung]

I have no problem with Sano's ranking at 14. His potential is wrapped up 100% in his bat and in his arm. If he strikes out a ton that reduces his offensive contributions significantly and if he can't hack it at 3rd and is forced to move to 1B his arm is worthless, not to mention the positional value decrease.

 

If he can cut down on his strikeouts enough that he can hit .280 with an OBP around .360ish that is a big win. Then if he can play defense well enough to stick at 3B you have a player who might be an MVP candidate. On the other hand, if he only hits .245 with an OBP around .320 and he is at 1B well now you have a good but not great 1B.

 

What a lot of you are missing is his BABIP. In the years that he has put up good batting averages his BABIP has been incredibly high. When his BABIP has approached more reasonable numbers his batting average falls too. The main difference between his season at A+ vs. AA? At Fort Meyers his BABIP was an absurd .397 so his batting average was .330. At New Britain his BABIP was .265 and so his batting average fell to .236. Both of those BABIPS are pretty extreme. If he can't fix his strikeout issue, then where that BABIP "normalizes" will ultimately determine his batting average.

[Oxtung]

Sano's "low" ranking would probably have to do with some of the contact struggles he had in AA. It's a legitimate concern, because it will make or break his career.

 

I also think Parks overvalues Lindor here, and probably a few of the pitching prospects. Most lists will have Sano either in the top 5 or top 10.

 

I actually think he's undervaluing Lindor. Lindor is arguably is the best defensive player in the minors regardless of position. He drew more walks than strikeouts last year and stole 25 bases in just 400 at bats.

 

Think about this for a minute. Andrelton Simmons who hits .300 with an OBP around .370 and steals 30 bases for you.

[cmathewson]

He raked against the bottom 3rd pitchers and struggled against the top 3rd....

and if you say he didnt struggle , why did he drop 11 places?

 

Why indeed? Well, it was because he had a two-week slump after he got called up to AA. That's the longest slump of his career so far. I haven't looked, but I venture a guess that the other guys on the list have had similar slumps. Buxton hasn't yet, but otherwise, it seems pretty silly to drop a guy so far because he had a slump in an otherwise extraordinary year.

[Oxtung]

Two interesting non-Twins placements: Chris Owings at 28 and Lucas Giolito at 13.

 

Giolito has always had the "stuff" but he has hardly pitched since being drafted and is coming back from TJ surgery. Bundy seems to be a comp except that Bundy made it all the way to MLB before he had TJ surgery.

 

Chris Owings is a bit like Pinto. He was never considered anything special until he hit AA and AAA where he exploded. Parks has him at 28. MLB.com has him at 77. That seems like quite the difference.

 

Call me a Julio Urias Fanboi anytime you want. Man does he look like a stud in the making.

 

Eddie Rosario is the 3rd 2B listed. Apparently his struggles in AA didn't effect his placement much for Parks.

 

I wonder what it would take to trade for Luis Sardinas of the Rangers. He is a very intriguing player.

 

Parks must think that Manaea's injury troubles really affected his play last spring. I think most prognosticators are in wait and see mode. I really like the approach that the Royals took in the 2013 draft. If Manaea can come back....what a coup!

[Oxtung]

Why indeed? Well, it was because he had a two-week slump after he got called up to AA. That's the longest slump of his career so far. I haven't looked, but I venture a guess that the other guys on the list have had similar slumps. Buxton hasn't yet, but otherwise, it seems pretty silly to drop a guy so far because he had a slump in an otherwise extraordinary year.

 

Even if you exclude his first 2 weeks at AA he still only hit .254 and struckout 29% of the time. Neither of those are good. Nobody questions if he'll hit for power. But will he hit .240 or .280? That's the question, well along with do you think he'll play 3B or 1B.

[markos]

Eddie Rosario is the 3rd 2B listed. Apparently his struggles in AA didn't effect his placement much for Parks.

 

Interesting contrast with the MLB.com list from last week. Rosario was rated #8 for 2B, and didn't crack the top-100 list, whereas BP has him #3 for 2B and #60 overall. That is quite the difference of opinion. I'm curious how other sites (BA, Sickels, Law, etc) rank him.

[cmathewson]

Even if you exclude his first 2 weeks at AA he still only hit .254 and struckout 29% of the time. Neither of those are good. Nobody questions if he'll hit for power. But will he hit .240 or .280? That's the question, well along with do you think he'll play 3B or 1B.

 

So he plays in 67 games, and has an Aaron Hicks-style slump in the first 14. That leaves 53 games to get his average up to .254 from .100. In other words, he slumped for two weeks and hit over .300 the rest of the way. Two weeks of adjustment is hardly something you would base a rating like this on.