Article: What to Make of Trevor May?

[cmathewson]

Remember the glee expounded after the PHL trade? Two good starting pitchers for Ben Revere?--Now, we're hoping that May becomes Matt Guerrier in order to salvage something from this trade.

 

You might have the stunted hope that he becomes a long reliever. Only one other poster has said that's his ceiling (hammer). I for one see a third starter as his ceiling. His floor is Matt Guerrier. He's already at his floor now. He took a step in the direction of his ceiling last year. He needs to take a couple more steps to realize it. I'd bet on him doing that if I could.

 

Also, Revere has a pretty low ceiling himself. Ryan traded him after he reached it. At the time, he got the Phillies fourth starter and the # 2 prospect in their system. That is a good trade. As many have said, the jury is still out on who won. But it will always be a good trade on paper.

[Willihammer]

He took a step in the direction of his ceiling last year.

 

What step was that?

[PseudoSABR]

You mean besides recieving a twice hurt damaged pitcher and a failed starter in AA? how about Darren Ruf and Petitbone?

As much as you diminish May and Worley, I was surprised Revere fetched that much. Revere had phantom value, and the Twins used it to buy low on pitchers who had under performed their talent. Smart stuff, actually.

[shs_59]

^ I call bs on that. I was sort of pleasanty surprised at the return we netted for Revere too, but that was more an indictement on the Twins FO and all the recent botched trades before that; than Ben Revere, the player himself.

 

A lot of the experts and anayltics / SABR guys (even Gleeman) were never really high on Revere, because pitchers can continue to challenge him and throw right down the middle often times with little to no fear, Because of Ben's lack of power. But Revere will be a VERY valuable player for the Phills for Years to come.

 

SPEED + CONTACT ability = UNDERRATED commodity when you do it at the Rate Revere does it.

 

And Trevor May will likely be another quad A pitcher in a loooong line of Twins failures.

 

Hindsight is a bitch, but clearly the Twins would be much better off if they could reverse that trade.

 

THE ONLY and i mean the only trades i approve of in the last dozen:

Are:

 

#1 Span for Meyer

#2 Butera for Sulbaran

#3 Doumit for Gilmartin

 

I understand and am content with the Johan, Morneau, and even Liriano trades.

 

But all the rest (about 8-10 more moves) were more or less pathetic on the part of the Twins.

 

Especially the Gomez to Hardy - Hardy to nothing debacle.

[shs_59]

I am proud to say that literally NO Twins fans liked the Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps trade as just pondering that again makes you sick to you're stomach.

[cmathewson]

What step was that?

 

As others have said, most of his peripherals improved. His ERA went down from 4.87 to 4.5 while his BABIP went up from .292 to .329. Predictably, his FIP went down from 4.88 to 3.79. His K rate went up from 22.9 to 24.1%. His BB rate went down from 11.8 to 10.2%. All that happened while he was among the leaders in IP in the EL.

 

Also, unlike the previous year, he got invited to the AFL, where he continued to improve on those peripherals.

[cmathewson]

^ I call bs on that. I was sort of pleasanty surprised at the return we netted for Revere too, but that was more an indictement on the Twins FO and all the recent botched trades before that; than Ben Revere, the player himself.

 

A lot of the experts and anayltics / SABR guys (even Gleeman) were never really high on Revere, because pitchers can continue to challenge him and throw right down the middle often times with little to no fear, Because of Ben's lack of power. But Revere will be a VERY valuable player for the Phills for Years to come.

 

SPEED + CONTACT ability = UNDERRATED commodity when you do it at the Rate Revere does it.

 

And Trevor May will likely be another quad A pitcher in a loooong line of Twins failures.

 

Hindsight is a bitch, but clearly the Twins would be much better off if they could reverse that trade.

 

THE ONLY and i mean the only trades i approve of in the last dozen:

Are:

 

#1 Span for Meyer

#2 Butera for Sulbaran

#3 Doumit for Gilmartin

 

I understand and am content with the Johan, Morneau, and even Liriano trades.

 

But all the rest (about 8-10 more moves) were more or less pathetic on the part of the Twins.

 

Especially the Gomez to Hardy - Hardy to nothing debacle.

 

I don't see how previous trades have any bearing on evaluating this trade. Most of the bad trades you list were perpetrated by Bill Smith, who made a lot of bad decisions. So what?

 

Speedy guys who can slap the ball are not hard to find. Nyger Morgan just signed a minor league deal, for example. Speedy guys who can drive the ball are hard to find. I don't see a lot of evidence of his speed on the bases. Last year, he stole 16 bases and was caught 8 times. You'd think he'd be a perpetual 40-steal guy with his speed. As the saying goes, you can't steal first base. A career OBP of .324 with no power is an eighth place hitter in the NL.

 

Also, as fast as Revere is, he struggled in the field last year from a numbers perspective. Everyone talks about the arm, which is among the weakest in baseball. But I think his jumps and routes are equally suspect. You look at his UZR and you wonder why it isn't better. I was surprised to see he had a -2.3 UZR in the field last year. Yeah he makes a lot of spectacular plays. Many of them are outrunning the ball after getting a late jump.

 

As I said, he hit his ceiling with the Twins, which is a nice player to fill a hole until a better guy comes along. When he was drafted, the Twins were widely criticised for taking him in the first round and paying him third-round money. Most analysts thought he was a third-round guy. And that's what he is.

 

To get this kind of return from a third-round guy is good, independent of any other deal the Twins have made.

[Willihammer]

As others have said, most of his peripherals improved. His ERA went down from 4.87 to 4.5 while his BABIP went up from .292 to .329. Predictably, his FIP went down from 4.88 to 3.79. His K rate went up from 22.9 to 24.1%. His BB rate went down from 11.8 to 10.2%. All that happened while he was among the leaders in IP in the EL.

 

Also, unlike the previous year, he got invited to the AFL, where he continued to improve on those peripherals.

 

He cut his walk rate to 10.4% which is something I guess. But his K-rate against RHBs actually went down a tick. Is this supposed to be indicative of an improved breaking pitch? I mean this honestly, I didn't see him throw a single pitch so am reading only stats.

 

Most of the cut to his FIP is due to allowing fewer homers. But he did switch to a more pitcher friendly park. Reading's is ~115, New Britain's is ~87.

[nicksaviking]

THE ONLY and i mean the only trades i approve of in the last dozen:

Are:

 

#1 Span for Meyer

#2 Butera for Sulbaran

#3 Doumit for Gilmartin

 

 

What about the Carl Pavano for Johan Pino deal? That was a pretty slick trade. So was Orlando Cabrera for Tyler Ladendorf.

 

Still, this trade is way too early to evaluate. What if May replaces Perkins as closer in two years? Is it still a crappy trade then?

 

Too early, there are still plenty of possibilities where either May or Worley rebound. The judgment is too quick here.

[Mike Sixel]

Hard to say Nick, if he becomes a closer for a few years, was that worth not having any OFers last year, and maybe only 1 that can play D and hit this year? What about next year? How many years do you lose the trade, to get a "closer" for a few years? Not that I think that is necessarily how it will work out, but right now, would you trade a 3 WAR OFer for a closer?

[cmathewson]

Hard to say Nick, if he becomes a closer for a few years, was that worth not having any OFers last year, and maybe only 1 that can play D and hit this year? What about next year? How many years do you lose the trade, to get a "closer" for a few years? Not that I think that is necessarily how it will work out, but right now, would you trade a 3 WAR OFer for a closer?

 

Well, if they were that obsessed with getting more outfielders, they could get Revere's replacement on a minor league deal. It's not like he's all that hard to replace.

[Twins Fan From Afar]

I'm a little late to the party here, sorry. I watched 5 or 6 of T. May's Rock Cats starts last season.

 

Takeaway: He's 1 step (I don't know what it is) from success. The fastball velocity, a very good curve -- they're both there. Does he need a better change-up? Probably. Does he still need to cut down on the walks? Yes. But he's close. I'd like to see him with better defense around him.

 

FWIW, Jeff Smith (Rock Cats' manager) is still pretty high on May. Let's see what Red Wings' pitching coach Marty Mason can do with him.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, if they were that obsessed with getting more outfielders, they could get Revere's replacement on a minor league deal. It's not like he's all that hard to replace.

 

Then why didn't they have a LF or 4th OFer last year that was as good as him?