Pedro Florimon

[jokin]

Teams know what Willingham can do offensively and defensively. The objective should be to keep him healthy.

 

I agree that the Twins should attempt to keep Hammer healthy. But you don't want to preclude the chance for all of the contenders, AL, and especially NL, to fully consider what he brings to the table in trade- the other teams don't know what he can do defensively- in 2014- post injury- if he DH's the whole season. He made it all the way through the 2012 season successfully, that's what he and the Twins should shoot for in 2014.

[jokin]

So you want to gut the bullpen of the best pitchers, dump a guy coming off a career worse OPS+ of 98 for a guy with a career OPS+ of 98, add replacement level parts, annd add a starting pitcher. Are you still trying to lose 95 games a season, too? The starters would all have to have sub 3 ERA,, FIP, XFIP, OR SIERA and be able to pitch a complete game when the score was close for the team to even be mediocre with a punchless ofense.

 

You are misanalyzing the situation- winning 95 games is my objective, not losing 95- my prescription would provide for the possibility of a significant upgrade in the offense, while dowgrading the bullpen only slightly, on paper.

 

The Terry Ryan upgrade in starting pitching has improved the Twins to the point that there are going to be at least 25 more games where the QS stat comes into play- which means many more winnable games and less dependence on the bullpen to win those games- I have no clue where you are coming up with your stats, they don't make any sense in this analysis-- Matt Garza has a career OPS + of 108- how are Steven Drew and Michael Young "replacement parts"- adding these 2 (or Hardy), helps raise the offense from "punchless" to "viably competitive". And....the easiest area to upgrade a team is in the bullpen- just look at what TR did in the 2011-12 offseason- and look at all the arms still available now. The Twins also have multiple options knocking at the door.

 

In addition, how is moving Burton, who was injured last year, and either Duensing or Swarzak, "gutting" the bullpen? In regards to Perk, the question of trading him at his maximum value, in order to upgrade the team overall, has to come into question here.

 

The Twins have more than enough pitching depth and up-and-coming prospects (May, Jones, Worley, Meyer [think Gausman here], Tonkin, Deduno [when healthy], Darnell, Ibarra) to absorb the losses and go with their current pitching depth chart- or even go outside the roster for a Fien or Burton-type on the super-cheap, they are likely to deliver similar results to the RPs they lose, for just a fraction of the cost.

[jorgenswest]

I agree that the Twins should attempt to keep Hammer healthy. But you don't want to preclude the chance for all of the contenders, AL, and especially NL, to fully consider what he brings to the table in trade- the other teams don't know what he can do defensively- in 2014- post injury- if he DH's the whole season. He made it all the way through the 2012 season successfully, that's what he and the Twins should shoot for in 2014.

 

Even as regular DH, he will play enough in the field for other teams to see that he has not changed from awful defensively. If he is in LF, the Twins will have the worst defensive OF in baseball. Not a good match for the fly ball pitchers they added.

 

Back to the thread, Florimon is the only Twins that has shown over his career that he is a plus defensive player. There is hope for Dozier to be above average, but he needs to to another step in that direction this year.

[jokin]

Even as regular DH, he will play enough in the field for other teams to see that he has not changed from awful defensively. If he is in LF, the Twins will have the worst defensive OF in baseball. Not a good match for the fly ball pitchers they added.

 

Back to the thread, Florimon is the only Twins that has shown over his career that he is a plus defensive player. There is hope for Dozier to be above average, but he needs to to another step in that direction this year.

 

No argument for your assessment of the result with Willy in LF, but then, that's what the Twins have done the last 2 years, and the Twins and Gardy are creatures of habit, and the alternative to start the season is Parmellee or Hermann? Nope.

 

Agree on Florimon, but the Twins need to explore various ways to upgrade the offense. Right now, through FA, SS is one of the most obvious ways to do so- and having both Drew and Flo-mo is one way to achieve that goal.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Thank you, I do remember Mauch doing that after you gave the particulars. It would be interesting to see who came up with the idea, Mauch, Weaver or more probably some minor league guy we never heard of.

 

Maybe this?

 

[The Wise One]

You are misanalyzing the situation- winning 95 games is my objective, not losing 95- my prescription would provide for the possibility of a significant upgrade in the offense, while dowgrading the bullpen only slightly, on paper.

 

The Terry Ryan upgrade in starting pitching has improved the Twins to the point that there are going to be at least 25 more games where the QS stat comes into play- which means many more winnable games and less dependence on the bullpen to win those games- I have no clue where you are coming up with your stats, they don't make any sense in this analysis-- Matt Garza has a career OPS + of 108- how are Steven Drew and Michael Young "replacement parts"- adding these 2 (or Hardy), helps raise the offense from "punchless" to "viably competitive". And....the easiest area to upgrade a team is in the bullpen- just look at what TR did in the 2011-12 offseason- and look at all the arms still available now. The Twins also have multiple options knocking at the door.

 

In addition, how is moving Burton, who was injured last year, and either Duensing or Swarzak, "gutting" the bullpen? In regards to Perk, the question of trading him at his maximum value, in order to upgrade the team overall, has to come into question here.

 

The Twins have more than enough pitching depth and up-and-coming prospects (May, Jones, Worley, Meyer [think Gausman here], Tonkin, Deduno [when healthy], Darnell, Ibarra) to absorb the losses and go with their current pitching depth chart- or even go outside the roster for a Fien or Burton-type on the super-cheap, they are likely to deliver similar results to the RPs they lose, for just a fraction of the cost.

 

Duensing and Swarzak high priced? Sorry, there is no way in hades that from your comment on moving high priced parts from the bullpen that I would think it could be the arb eligible players. A maybe 2 million and 1 million dollar player are high priced? To propose shipping those players, Florimon and other moderately high priced players to the Orioles , a team looking to clear money, falls under the category of interesting fantasy GM.

[Reider]

I'd rather see the Twins trade for JJ Hardy than sign Drew.

[jokin]

I'd rather see the Twins trade for JJ Hardy than sign Drew.

 

Depending on what it costs to get him, I concur with you. Hardy appears to be fully healthy now, playing a solid SS on an everyday basis. And there might be something he wants to prove on a return tour of duty with the Twins.

[stringer bell]

I'd like to see the Twins trade for the next Juan Segura, Everth Cabrera or Didi Gregorius, all of whom were signed by a different team than the team they're now playing for.

[jokin]

Duensing and Swarzak high priced? Sorry, there is no way in hades that from your comment on moving high priced parts from the bullpen that I would think it could be the arb eligible players. A maybe 2 million and 1 million dollar player are high priced? To propose shipping those players, Florimon and other moderately high priced players to the Orioles , a team looking to clear money, falls under the category of interesting fantasy GM.

 

Did you forget to acknowledge that you were factually wrong about Garza's numbers and that Drew and Young don't qualify as "replacement parts"?

 

I never said they were going to deal Swarzak and Duensing to the Orioles. I proposed that the Twins fill the needs that the O's actually have. And in your own fantasy, you conveniently left out Burton from your equation- $3.25M this year, and a little long in the tooth- they can replace Burton fairly easily from within at near the minimum. And yes, there's a fighting chance that what the Twins have coming up can replace what Swarzak and Duensing have to offer at the minimum- especially in a bullpen that won't need a mop-up guy like Swarzak as much, and with likely better lefties than Duensing in waiting.

 

If you care to re-read my trade proposal less selectively, the O's would clear Hardy's ~$10M off their books (due in 2014 through already-achieved incentives) and pick up Correia @ $5.5M. The Twins would likely have to pick up another of their expendables in the OF to clear more $$$s for the Os and clear another roster spot if they want to sign both a FA pitcher and bat. To make the trade more interesting, they could take a run at Weiters in a package deal (due ~$8M in arb in 2014), probably costing them Perkins, freeing up $5M more for the O's. Throw in an Oriole prospect and a Twins prospect and/or Hammer (Rosario?) and you have yourself a blockbuster offseaon deal that appears win-win.

[kab21]

Compared to Plouffe playing all the games at 3B??

 

Betemit would be like going back to Batista in the field. Plouffe isn't a good fielder but Betemit is incredibly awful. Reynolds is even worse.

[The Wise One]

Did you forget to acknowledge that you were factually wrong about Garza's numbers and that Drew and Young don't qualify as "replacement parts"?

 

I never said they were going to deal Swarzak and Duensing to the Orioles. I proposed that the Twins fill the needs that the O's actually have. And in your own fantasy, you conveniently left out Burton from your equation- $3.25M this year, and a little long in the tooth- they can replace Burton fairly easily from within at near the minimum. And yes, there's a fighting chance that what the Twins have coming up can replace what Swarzak and Duensing have to offer at the minimum- especially in a bullpen that won't need a mop-up guy like Swarzak as much, and with likely better lefties than Duensing in waiting.

 

If you care to re-read my trade proposal less selectively, the O's would clear Hardy's ~$10M off their books (due in 2014 through already-achieved incentives) and pick up Correia @ $5.5M. The Twins would likely have to pick up another of their expendables in the OF to clear more $$$s for the Os and clear another roster spot if they want to sign both a FA pitcher and bat. To make the trade more interesting, they could take a run at Weiters in a package deal (due ~$8M in arb in 2014), probably costing them Perkins, freeing up $5M more for the O's. Throw in an Oriole prospect and a Twins prospect and/or Hammer (Rosario?) and you have yourself a blockbuster offseaon deal that appears win-win.

 

whatever. I never mentioned Garza. You mentioneded signing Drew and getting rid of Willingham. The difference in their numbers career wise was I posted. Where you get Garza out of that I a real mystery to me. I mentioned the numbers Twins would have to post if you continue to gut the offense and trade awway the pullpen. That had nothing to do with Garza. Any further discussion on this would best be left to a PM as it will fade to petty soon.

There are only 2 high priced relievers in the Twins bullpen, Burton and Perkins. And now you are up to two to three top players for fringe players and relievers.

[cmathewson]

Betemit would be like going back to Batista in the field. Plouffe isn't a good fielder but Betemit is incredibly awful. Reynolds is even worse.

 

Betemit = Batista

Reynolds = Lamb

[Mike Sixel]

I find it fascintating people want to trade for players, but are afraid to give up a 2nd round pick for a proven player.

[stringer bell]

I find it fascintating people want to trade for players, but are afraid to give up a 2nd round pick for a proven player.

Of the players who have a draft choice attached, I find very little to like. I guess if the price was right for Ubaldo or Ervin, they could be desireable. I am not in the Drew camp at all. To get players that will be helpful for years to come, it may be necessary to make trades. As I posted earlier, some of the best young shortstops currently producing were traded to their current teams as unproven guys or minor leaguers (or both).

[Willihammer]

You can save a thousand runs on defense but if you don't score they don't matter. This club was constantly playing from behind last year. They cannot afford to punt every 3rd inning when the 7-9 batters come up. Those at-bats are guaranteed. Having the opportunity to field a hard ground ball to the 5 hole with men on base, is not a guaranteed situation.

[Willihammer]

I am not in the Drew camp at all. To get players that will be helpful for years to come, it may be necessary to make trades. As I posted earlier, some of the best young shortstops currently producing were traded to their current teams as unproven guys or minor leaguers (or both).

 

What's wrong with a 2-3 year solution?

[kab21]

Of the players who have a draft choice attached, I find very little to like. I guess if the price was right for Ubaldo or Ervin, they could be desireable. I am not in the Drew camp at all. To get players that will be helpful for years to come, it may be necessary to make trades. As I posted earlier, some of the best young shortstops currently producing were traded to their current teams as unproven guys or minor leaguers (or both).

 

To get players to help for the years to come you will be giving up really good players for years to come. Garza, Ubaldo and Ervin aren't young aces but a 2nd rd pick is basically a 10%-20% lottery ticket. There are reasons to be against signing Garza, Ubaldo, Ervin or Drew but the 2nd rd pick is not it.

[Thrylos]

To get players to help for the years to come you will be giving up really good players for years to come. Garza, Ubaldo and Ervin aren't young aces but a 2nd rd pick is basically a 10%-20% lottery ticket. There are reasons to be against signing Garza, Ubaldo, Ervin or Drew but the 2nd rd pick is not it.

 

Garza will not cost a pick. The other 3 will.

[jokin]

whatever. I never mentioned Garza. You mentioneded signing Drew and getting rid of Willingham. The difference in their numbers career wise was I posted. Where you get Garza out of that I a real mystery to me. I mentioned the numbers Twins would have to post if you continue to gut the offense and trade awway the pullpen. That had nothing to do with Garza. Any further discussion on this would best be left to a PM as it will fade to petty soon.

There are only 2 high priced relievers in the Twins bullpen, Burton and Perkins. And now you are up to two to three top players for fringe players and relievers.

 

whatever. I never mentioned Garza. Where you get Garza out of that I a real mystery to me.

 

Yes you did. Let me help you out on solving your mystery. You casually brushed aside the most major FA SP upgrade since Jack Morris in signing Garza as merely, "adding a starting pitcher."

 

 

I mentioned the numbers Twins would have to post if you continue to gut the offense and trade away the pullpen.

 

Gut the offense? My proposal will radically strengthen the offense, which is what I have been advocating since the day they showed their intentions for finally spending money on quality FAs by signing Nolasco. Please refer back to the potential offensive batting stats from my proposed lineup- huge increase in overall OPS at the bottom and middle of the order. Drew, your OPS+ 98 career hitter, bats nearly .890 OPS against RHP, coupled with Florimon's favorable numbers against LHP, you have near a combined league-best average at the SS position- that is the very opposite definition of "gutting"- and also not hurting the SS defense in a platoon scenario.

 

Trade away the bullpen? Right now, the Twins most valuable trading chip besides the uber-prospects, is Glen Perkins. To get a further boost on offense in a trade bigger than just the SS for Correia trade, it might require considering a more blockbuster trade opportunity and then finding an internal solution for replacing Perkins....we have many, many options to do just that....or the Twins can just sign Drew, Young and Garza and trade the higher-priced relievers and keep Perkins, as I also proposed as an option, and rely on our vast depth in potential relievers from our excess starters and our up-and-coming-knocking-on-the-door potential relievers... which I also thoroughly catalogued.

There is no "gutting" in my proposal.

 

There are only 2 high priced relievers in the Twins bullpen, Burton and Perkins. And now you are up to two to three top players for fringe players and relievers

 

Duensing is scheduled to make $2M and we have better LHP options for a lot less $$$ (check his lefty-lefty split in 2013, not good). Burton is long in the tooth and also replaceable for less.

Drew is not a fringe player.

Hardy is not a fringe player.

Garza is not a fringe player.

Young is not a fringe player.

Weiters is not a fringe player.

Reynolds or Betemit in a platoon scenario would maximize their offensive value and minimize their downside.

 

You might have to provide salary relief to the O's by picking up one of their excess OFers to help them clear roster space to add an extra free agent. So what.

 

If Willingham would be involved in a trade involving Weiters, the trade is a wash, and might cost you a prospect like Rosario and/or Pinto.

[ashbury]

Yes you did. Let me help you out on solving your mystery. You casually brushed aside the most major FA SP upgrade since Jack Morris in signing Garza as merely, "adding a starting pitcher."

 

Moderator's note: this bickering has gone on long enough. The thread was about Florimon's defense and the digression, if it has not run its course, needs to go to PM as TWO already suggested.

[old nurse]

I find it fascintating people want to trade for players, but are afraid to give up a 2nd round pick for a proven player.

 

The question then is what do you believe you can get for that second round pick in the draft. Is signing the player worth the player you could draft. Is a few years for one player worth 6 years of another? If it is, you sign the player. Yes a player with a track record is a sure thing. I would like to think when you draft a high round player you do not think maybe this will work out. You want enough confidence to know it will work.

[twinsnorth49]

The question then is what do you believe you can get for that second round pick in the draft. Is signing the player worth the player you could draft. Is a few years for one player worth 6 years of another? If it is, you sign the player. Yes a player with a track record is a sure thing. I would like to think when you draft a high round player you do not think maybe this will work out. You want enough confidence to know it will work.

 

If a team is close to contending then go with the sure thing if that fills a need. This team is still minimum a few years away in my opinion, if we're having this conversation in 2016 assuming our expected prospects work out then trading a 2nd round pick for a proven asset is an easy decision.

 

No matter how confident a team is with a second round draft pick, there is just no such thing as a sure thing.

[kab21]

The question then is what do you believe you can get for that second round pick in the draft. Is signing the player worth the player you could draft. Is a few years for one player worth 6 years of another? If it is, you sign the player. Yes a player with a track record is a sure thing. I would like to think when you draft a high round player you do not think maybe this will work out. You want enough confidence to know it will work.

 

By the time you get to pick 40+ there is about a 10-20% chance that the player ever becomes a decent MLB starter. A team can have confidence but those are the facts.

[mtillma]

I believe most people on here are really underestimating pedro florimon. Baseball reference had him as a 2.1 WAR last year, third best on the team. It is also difficult to find a 10/10 SS, which Pedro is. With a little bit of improvement at the plate to say .250 BA, with his defense, you are talking about a top 10 SS in the game. Even if he doesn't make a big jump at the plate the Twins can still win with him at SS just putting up a 2 WAR. I would like them to spend their time addressing other issues, like the fact Alex Presley should never start in Center Field for a real winning baseball team, or playing all your extra catchers and first baseman in right field with a bad fielding LF and CF then wondering why fly ball pitchers are bad. Pedro is not the problem and Bartlett is not an answer, he hasn't been good in about 5 years.

[kab21]

I like how people keep expecting a little improvement at the plate and how he could hit .250. On the flipside with any regression he has a <.600 OPS. He's a tolerable placeholder but there is no way that he is part of the long term plans.

[Guest USAFChief]

On the flipside with any regression he has a <.600 OPS.

Like for example if he doesn't run into 9 HRs?

 

Were I a betting man...and I am...I'm taking the under on that in 2014.

[snepp]

Like for example if he doesn't run into 9 HRs?

 

Were I a betting man...and I am...I'm taking the under on that in 2014.

 

Which is what he did over the last 4 months of the season, a .560-ish OPS.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I like how people keep expecting a little improvement at the plate and how he could hit .250. On the flipside with any regression he has a <.600 ops. he a tolerable placeholder but there is no way that part of the long term plans.>

 

Hey, all it could take is for Pedro to log his 3507th professional plate appearance to figure it out.

 

Because that's logical.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Hey, all it could take is for Pedro to log his 3507th professional plate appearance to figure it out.

 

Because that's logical.

 

David Ortiz logged 3895 professional plate appearances (1477 in the majors) when the Twins made the logical choice, and released him. He was 27 years old.

 

The proving line is typically 4000 professional plate appearances--2000 in the majors, before a professional hitter is properly seasoned. With all due respect, I don't think this is the year to give up on Florimon, and his 606 MLB PA's.