Pedro Florimon

[jokin]

Whoa stop. I'm confused. I've seen Peralta play some Brutal defense (I capitalized the and now I see a list with Florimon and Peralta at the same place -- school me up on this or send links!

 

Here's the link, rank-ordered by UZR:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=23,d

 

 

As I said, defensive stats still have a ways to go. The biggest difference that stands out between Peralta's numbers and Florimon's is the Error rate. Peralta's number is 2nd best among the top 14 SSs, while Florimon's is 2nd worst. This follows with the eye test and the number of errors each committed. Florimon gets to more balls but has had some muffs and some inexplicably bad throws on easy plays, Peralta is more consistent on the easier plays. Perhaps FG values the error rate too highly in their overall metric, perhaps not. One thing is for certian, Florimon's value will go way up when he becomes more consistent on the easy plays and moves his DPR into positive territory.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Here's the link, rank-ordered by UZR:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=23,d

 

 

As I said, defensive stats still have a ways to go. The biggest difference that stands out between Peralta's numbers and Florimon's is the Error rate. Peralta's number is 2nd best among the top 14 SSs, while Florimon's is 2nd worst. This follows with the eye test and the number of errors each committed. Florimon gets to more balls but has had some muffs and some inexplicably bad throws on easy plays, Peralta is more consistent on the easier plays. Perhaps FG values the error rate too highly in their overall metric, perhaps not. One thing is for certian, Florimon's value will go way up when he becomes more consistent on the easy plays and moves his DPR into positive territory.

 

Ouch - I will plead "selective memory" then. From what I've seen and heard I think he's been fantastic - agreeing with Reider there. Sure Florimon is young but he acts like he knows why he's out there and knows what he's doing, and then does it.

[jokin]

Ouch - I will plead "selective memory" then. From what I've seen and heard I think he's been fantastic - agreeing with Reider there. Sure Florimon is young but he acts like he knows why he's out there and knows what he's doing, and then does it.

 

Actually, Florimon isn't that young, he just turned 27 and just completed his 8th year of professional ball. I will agree with you that, at various times, he does look anywhere from competent to spectacular, but at other times, he has made inexplicably bad plays or made bad decisions, or seemingly looked like he's lost focus. For the most part he has proven that defensively he's an above average major league SS. If he can build on the strong points he delivered in 2013, cut back on the mental lapses, improve his DP rate, he can be an unquestioned top quintile SS. Meanwhile, hitting in the 9 hole in the order, his offensive approach would be greatly aided by being able to bat in front of a real, live MLB-level lead off hitter.

[cmathewson]

As I have said, I think he is an elite defender--the best the Twins have had since Gagne. But the Twins offense could use a boost, so, if they have a chance to upgrade offensively at the position without harming the defensive side too much, they should look at it. Therein lies the challenge.

 

Stephen Drew would certainly be an offensive upgrade, but you give something back on defense. He seems awfully expensive for a marginal upgrade overall. And he's declining while Florimon is on the upswing.

 

To get substantially better at the position, my sense is they would need to make a trade. And that is a tough proposition because a lot of other teams would love to have a guy named Escobar, for example, including the teams that currently employ them. They will not come cheap, if at all (think three top 10 prospects).

 

In the unlikely event the Twins could lure one of them away at the steep price they would garner, we might only be in need of that upgrade for a year or two. According to Twins scouts, Danny Santana has the kind of upside on both sides of the ball to represent an upgrade at the position. Assuming the Twins do not make a trade or signing, Santana will likely spend 2014 at AAA and compete with Florimon in spring of 2015 for the starting job. I expect him to be the regular shortstop before the end of 2015.

 

I don't think it's worth the price of the upgrade for one year plus, a year in which the Twins are still primarily building for the future. Better to save their prospects for that future, imo. Also, if and when Santana is ready, Florimon would be worth a lot more on the trade market if he continued to hold the position.

[jokin]

As I have said, I think he is an elite defender--the best the Twins have had since Gagne. But the Twins offense could use a boost, so, if they have a chance to upgrade offensively at the position without harming the defensive side too much, they should look at it. Therein lies the challenge.

 

Stephen Drew would certainly be an offensive upgrade, but you give something back on defense. He seems awfully expensive for a marginal upgrade overall. And he's declining while Florimon is on the upswing.

 

I expect (Santan) to be the regular shortstop before the end of 2015.

 

Also, if and when Santana is ready, Florimon would be worth a lot more on the trade market if he continued to hold the position.

 

 

I'm not sure how much "up" is left in Florimon's "swing". As I stated, he's 27, in his 8th professional season. Although I think he can make a marginal improvement over 2013, the Oliver projection surmises that last year was his peak WAR value, and that over the next 5 years he plays himself into a utility role, at best.

 

Hopefully, they can sell high on Florimon...but FWIW, the Santana projections don't look like much of an overall upgrade...more of a continuation in the opportunity of paying minimum wage at the position out to 2018.

[kab21]

Danny Santana has very little offensive unless we are talking to people that say great things about all prospects. He will probably be lucky to crack a .300 OBP and in the end is probably very similar to Florimon.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Actually, Florimon isn't that young, he just turned 27 and just completed his 8th year of professional ball.

 

Good catch-- the Twins led me to believe last year that with guys like Florimon, Collabello, Deduno, Bernier, that a lot of young prospects were on their way up.....

 

I took a second look at Florimon's MiLB batting stats. Four years in A because he didn't hit. I am very comfortable starting him every day at short for his glove and batting him ninth this year however.

[clutterheart]

Florimon is an above average defensive SS and a very below average hitter. He has value, but as he gains service time and he gets paid more, his value compared to salary will decrease and I would guess he has 1 or 2 years left with this team.

 

If Santana could learn how to take a walk he would be the long term replacement. Otherwise we will have to wait for Polonco who may or may not be able to field the position.

[Major League Ready]

Does Trea Turner profile about the same offensively?

[cmathewson]

Florimon is an above average defensive SS and a very below average hitter. He has value, but as he gains service time and he gets paid more, his value compared to salary will decrease and I would guess he has 1 or 2 years left with this team.

 

If Santana could learn how to take a walk he would be the long term replacement. Otherwise we will have to wait for Polonco who may or may not be able to field the position.

 

Looking just at the numbers, your analysis is spot on. I like to think Santana has more upside than the numbers indicate. I base that on mostly informal scouting reports. I don't think he'll ever be a patient hitter. But he has decent contact skills and very good speed. If he can learn to slap the ball and run, he could get on base at a decent enough clip. His range is the thing that makes him a prospect. Molitor said he needs to work on focus and consistency. If he does both those things, he'll be an upgrade. He's my breakout candidate for 2014, along with Trevor May.

 

Based on reports, I'm less optimistic that Polanco can be an above average defender at short. He has good range and very good hands. But his arm is marginal. The arm is the great equalizer over there, turning slow guys like Hardy into above-average defenders because they can play so deep.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

I'm not even confident that he can turn into a .300 OBP hitter.

 

I think this is a key strategic question. Here's a post I shared in another forum, related to Aaron Hick's 2013 OBP. It may produce more fruitful conversation here:

 

"There's a lot of talk here about Hicks, but how about Florimon too? Perhaps we could see a statistical improvement in on-base percentage similar to Dozier's sophomore season:

[TABLE=width: 700]

Player's OBP (Plate Appearances)

Minors (PA)

1st Year MLB (PA)

2nd Year MLB (PA)

Brian Dozier

.370 (1613)

.271 (340)

.312 (558)

Aaron Hicks

.376 (2192)

.259 (313)

???

Pedro Florimon

.321 (2900)

.281 (446)*

???

[/TABLE]

 

*Florimon had 160 MLB plate appearances in 2011-12)

 

Dozier's OBP climbed 41 points between his 1st and 2nd full seasons with the Twins (his slugging percentage also climbed 82 points). It may be unrealistic for both Florimon and Hicks' OBP to climb over .300 OBP in their second full MLB seasons, but even a modest increase should tilt the balance toward more overall runs scored.

 

Also, factor the uptick both Hicks and Florimon bring in the field over/against all of the other available options. We want these guys in the field. Now if they can only reach base..."

 

I really appreciated Reider's points about watching Florimon, and what his glove brings to the game. But I wonder about a SS who posted a .321 OBP for his minor league career.

 

However, Greg Gagne's career MLB OBP is .302 and Christian Guzman's OBP didn't climb above .300 until his third year with the Twins (.269 & .299 in 1999 & 2000) so there is a precedent in the Twins organization for playing shortstops with below-average offense in favor of above-average defense.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

In a nutshell, I'd say Gardenhire should ink in Florimon as the #9 batter in the 2014-15-16 lineup, until a prospect from within the organization (Santana, Polanco, Trea Turner in the 2014 draft?) makes a compelling argument for a position/lineup change.

[Craig in MN]

One thing to remember about Florimon is that, even though, he is a switch hitter, he is truly terribly against lefties, and actually relatively decent against righties. Escobar is a switch hitter with the reverse platoon strength. A platoon of the two of them could conceivable get you nearly average SS offense and well above average defense. Bartlett was a strong hitter against lefties, so he could be in the mix too, if things go well for him.

 

That doesn't give Florimon any more pure value, but it does help the team if the player has a notable weakness that you they can plan to cover up. Gardy doesn't like to platoon, of course, but it's an option. I think part of the reason he doesn't like to platoon is that it is usually with more offensive-oriented players and it makes it easier for the opposing team to play reliever matchups towards the middle of the batting order. Plus, those other offensive players are rarely as bad in their platoon-weakness hitting as these guys are.

 

Who's going to bring in a loogy/roogy to turn Escobar or Florimon around? Nobody. What about having one come in to face someone like Parmalee or Plouffe?...a lot might. Parmalee and Plouffe have roughly a 650 OPS on their weakside platoon...that is bad but not so bad. That is basically the strongside platoon splits for Escobar and Florimon...they have closer to a .500 OPS from their weakside....that is what you need to get away from. Platooning these two switch hitters that are batting ninth regardless seems like there is little downside and more relative upside.

[ericchri]

I have no idea where Florimon compares to other shortstops defensively, trying to rank them somehow, I don't watch enough other games to even try, and others have already listed the statistical stuff. I do know that going into the 2013 season I was unimpressed with his defense, and following the season I was very impressed.

 

He's more than good enough to hold down the spot until the roster stabilizes into what looks like a future core of players that will compete. He's also young enough with enough intriguing features (a little pop in his bat, good speed) to potentially be a big contributor to that future core if he improves offensively. I'm not sure I anticipate any significant improvement offensively, but a tiny bit wouldn't shock me, and with his defense, that would be plenty enough.

 

I'd still prefer somebody who had a little more offense as part of his game, I think looking to improve is definitely prudent, but I'm not sure there's anything out there at a reasonable price (in dollars or other assets) that would honestly be a definitive improvement to the team.

[Willihammer]

Who's going to bring in a loogy/roogy to turn Escobar or Florimon around? Nobody. What about having one come in to face someone like Parmalee or Plouffe?...a lot might. Parmalee and Plouffe have roughly a 650 OPS on their weakside platoon...that is bad but not so bad. That is basically the strongside platoon splits for Escobar and Florimon...they have closer to a .500 OPS from their weakside....that is what you need to get away from. Platooning these two switch hitters that are batting ninth regardless seems like there is little downside and more relative upside.

 

According to Dickbert, the Twins think Florimon's strong side is as a RH batter. His minor league numbers do support this conclusion. Obviously this makes Florimon and Escobar even more redundant.

[DaveW]

Florimon is best served in a UTIL role due to his slick fielding nature. I don't think he will ever do enough with the bat to truly warrant a starting job on a legit competing ball club. The Twins really don't have much in the SS pipeline at this point, and counting on Florimon for anything more than 1 season is a mistake IMO. The Twins should strike now, sign Drew to a 2-3 year deal and instantly improve the SS position (which has been dreadful for about a decade now)

[Willihammer]

Against RHP, which is 2/3 of all games, the entire infield minus Mauer will be at a platoon disadvantage. If they could bring in even one LH hitting util infielder to displace one of Plouffe or Florimon, that might be a big help.

[Craig in MN]

According to Dickbert, the Twins think Florimon's strong side is as a RH batter. His minor league numbers do support this conclusion. Obviously this makes Florimon and Escobar even more redundant.

 

Is that right? I don't know where to get his minor league splits. That's kind of amazing, if true. He has a .665 OPS as a lefty this year, and .459 as a righty. If his righty stats could even match his lefty ones, there would be no concern about him being an everyday player.

[Willihammer]

minorleaguecentral.com for minor league splits.

 

IHe hit .687 as a LHB and .758 as a RHB also with better K and BB rates. We are not talking about a high ceiling player that if given more playing time might suddenly turn into a guy who should be hitting everyday.

[DocBauer]

In a nutshell' date=' I'd say Gardenhire should ink in Florimon as the #9 batter in the 2014-15-16 lineup, until a prospect from within the organization (Santana, Polanco, Trea Turner in the 2014 draft?) makes a compelling argument for a position/lineup change.[/quote']

 

Strongly agree, with Escobar or a rejuvenated Bartlett getting a platoon there. Gardy simply has to look at this option to give the lineup the best chance to succeed. Either could potentially give the Twins defense at least comparable to Floriman, and would give the lineup a better turnaround to the top again.

 

I also appreciate the OB% comparison given and hope to see at least a small rise from Florimon just due to a year under his belt, as well as possible platoon splits helping.

[stringer bell]

minorleaguecentral.com for minor league splits.

 

IHe hit .687 as a LHB and .758 as a RHB also with better K and BB rates. We are not talking about a high ceiling player that if given more playing time might suddenly turn into a guy who should be hitting everyday.

Thanks Willihammer! I have been thinking about adding a guy to take maybe 100 PAs from Dozier, 150-200 from Plouffe, and maybe another 150-200 as the left fielder. Such a player would certainly render Parmelee totally obselete. I don't think Escobar is the guy, but a lefty hitter in those positions could help the team dramatically.

 

Florimon's splits are puzzling, given his minor league career. I guess it shows that even a season's worth of data is still a small sample size.

[DaveW]

Thanks Willihammer! I have been thinking about adding a guy to take maybe 100 PAs from Dozier, 150-200 from Plouffe, and maybe another 150-200 as the left fielder. Such a player would certainly render Parmelee totally obselete. I don't think Escobar is the guy, but a lefty hitter in those positions could help the team dramatically.

 

Florimon's splits are puzzling, given his minor league career. I guess it shows that even a season's worth of data is still a small sample size.

The problem is, there aren't a whole lot of lefty hitting SS/2B/3B.....

 

However if you want a guy who can hit everything and play all of those positions...look no further than Mark DeRosa!

[JP3700]

Florimon is an outstanding defensive SS. After Simmons, who is in his own league, I'd put Florimon in the next tier. That tier for me includes..

 

Troy Tulowitzki

Escobars (Alcides and Yunel)

Jose Iglesias

Brendan Ryan

Pete Kozma

 

He is a useful MLB player and should be in the majors for the next 5-7 years. Depending on how long his defense holds up.

[Major League Ready]

Is that right? I don't know where to get his minor league splits. That's kind of amazing, if true. He has a .665 OPS as a lefty this year, and .459 as a righty. If his righty stats could even match his lefty ones, there would be no concern about him being an everyday player.

 

I think what this tells us is that it is reasonable to expect improvement in his overall numbers because he SHOULD have better numbers from the right side. Plus, it would sure help if the man could learn to lay of the stuff thrown at his feet when batting LH. The optimist in me hopes he improves his plate discipline and gets it together RH. Is it unreasonable to think he can make these improvements? If so, would he be roughly league average offensively?

[Brock Beauchamp]

This thread reads a lot like past Butera threads. "If Player A would stop being awful at Skill B, he'd be a decent player."

 

Florimon will never be more than a bad hitter, which is a slight step up from his current status as "awful hitter". But it's likely that he'll always be an awful hitter.

 

The guy has eight pro seasons under his belt. We know who he is at this point. Predicting anything else for him is wishful thinking at best, outright naïveté at worst.

[Guest USAFChief]

Against RHP, which is 2/3 of all games, the entire infield minus Mauer will be at a platoon disadvantage. If they could bring in even one LH hitting util infielder to displace one of Plouffe or Florimon, that might be a big help.

"Steven Drew. Paging Steven Drew."

[ashbury]

"Steven Drew. Paging Steven Drew."

 

Steven Page. Drawing Steven Page.

 

 

(Barenaked Ladies, lead singer, oh never mind...)

[Major League Ready]

It is true that Florimon's MiLB career would suggest he is never going to be much of a hitter but it is reasonable to expect based on those same numbers that he will improve from the right side. That would help a little. He also will probably never have good plate discipline but if Cuddyer can finally learn after 10 years how to lay-off a breaking ball that is 16 inches outside, it's not too late to hope Florimon can learn to lay-off balls at his feet.

[iastfan112]

This thread reads a lot like past Butera threads. "If Player A would stop being awful at Skill B, he'd be a decent player."

 

Florimon will never be more than a bad hitter, which is a slight step up from his current status as "awful hitter". But it's likely that he'll always be an awful hitter.

 

The guy has eight pro seasons under his belt. We know who he is at this point. Predicting anything else for him is wishful thinking at best, outright naïveté at worst.

 

Your either overrating Florimon's futility with the bat or underrating Butera's. 100 pts of OPS is a lot. With good defense at SS a .600 OPS is tolerable, a .500 OPS isn't, regardless of position.

[Physics Guy]

Your either overrating Florimon's futility with the bat or underrating Butera's. 100 pts of OPS is a lot. With good defense at SS a .600 OPS is tolerable, a .500 OPS isn't, regardless of position.

 

I would tend to agree with this. I argued this same point last preseason. Florimon put up a .611 OPS with above average defense at SS. The league average for a #9 hitter is .633. I have no problem with Florimon as our SS and #9 hitter for the near future. I also expect he could approach the league average this season.