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A discussion of the dismal start of the rotation in 2013 should include the historically low strikeout rates, especially given an era where teams are succeeding in large due to an increased focus on strikeouts.

The bulk of these starters were not very good. Most of them will be AAA filler or gone from the system in the next two years. Strikeout rates are nice, but command with stuff is what is needed. The strikeout rate should be higher next year, but not greatly higher.

Does anyone think this was the plan when TR returned???? They will at the very least, be much more competent this year then the past few!

I saw Albers (and Dozier) as rays of light late in the season after what you rightly call an 'avalanche' of disappointment. Simply put, there was no truly competitive/coherent rotation in place, and that pressure just cascaded through the system, from Pelfrey to Gibson and beyond.

 

Nolasco and Hughes stand to be serviceable or better, they buy breathing room for guys who need to spell in the minors (looking at you, Gilmartin). If they over-perform, then great.

 

If we go on to add another starter (Tanaka? unlikely. Arroyo? Possible. Johan? MiLB deal = lo/no risk) then we have a total makeover and gain flexibility in trades going forward.

Strikeout rates are nice, but command with stuff is what is needed.

 

This is the key... whether someone throws 88 or 98... Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay didn't throw 94+. It's not just about velocity.

Good point Seth. Jim Hoey is a good example.

... especially given an era where teams are succeeding in large due to an increased focus on strikeouts.

 

The "increased focus" on strikeouts is purely a fan focus. Teams covet the best pitchers. The best pitchers generally strike more people out than the lesser pitchers. Teams with the best pitchers succeed at a higher rate. To say teams succeed because they focus on strikeouts is analogous to saying wet streets cause rain.

What this story drove home, to me, is how just about everything that could go wrong did go wrong with the starting rotation this year. When 80% of the guys you count on either take enormous steps (Diamond, Worley) backwards or aren't ready (Pelfrey, Gibson), then it's going to be a bad year.

 

And when almost all of the fill-ins for them are absolutely dreadful - then things get even uglier. Just look at those guys. Deduno was good for a half year. Albers was competent for 1/4 of the year. The rest were brain-freezing bad.

 

After writing this, I had one thought - it seems silly to say this, because it's what was said before last year, but here it is - it really can't get much worse. But it's true. It really can't.