Not Hearing Much About Worley

[Riverbrian]

Ah, come on, Levi... I honestly don't care about this argument one way or the other but you cannot compare Hicks, a 23 year old position player who has been a top 100 prospect for most of his MiLB career, to 26 and 27 year old pitchers who were never highly regarded and struggled mightily during an awful season.

 

Diamond was so poorly regarded that the Braves basically gave him away. Worley was never more than a marginal prospect.

 

At some point, it stops being "opinion" and becomes "general consensus". The general consensus is that Aaron Hicks is a vastly superior prospect to either Scott Diamond or Vance Worley. He doesn't even belong in the same conversation as those two guys.

 

No Doubt... Hicks by overwhelming consensus is expected to be better. Maybe much much much better. If those scouts and evaluators are right.

 

No Doubt... By Result in the minors and majors. Vance Worley has been better than Hicks.

 

CMathewson... I've always loved your posts but it hasn't been two horrible years of Worley. It's been one extremely awful year along with one surprisingly suburb year.

 

The year in the middle of those two years... 2012... Was very average... Very Correia like... I don't think Worley should be praised for it but I don't think 2012 should be lumped in with 2013 and labeled as two horrible years.

 

No one in our current rotation had done better for a year than 23 year old Worley Circa 2011. The closest was 25 year old Nolasco in 2008.

 

Worley was beyond bad last year... But he was beyond good in 2011. Average in 2012...

 

2014?

[TheLeviathan]

Unless I'm reading BRef wrong, Worley didnt have a 127 ERA+ over the past two seasons.

 

Whoops, that was 2011.

 

Still....is a 96 ERA+ horrible? I'd hope not, I don't think there are then adjectives to describe our pitching the last two years.

[cmathewson]

No Doubt... Hicks by overwhelming consensus is expected to be better. Maybe much much much better. If those scouts and evaluators are right.

 

No Doubt... By Result in the minors and majors. Vance Worley has been better than Hicks.

 

CMathewson... I've always loved your posts but it hasn't been two horrible years of Worley. It's been one extremely awful year along with one surprisingly suburb year.

 

The year in the middle of those two years... 2012... Was very average... Very Correia like... I don't think Worley should be praised for it but I don't think 2012 should be lumped in with 2013 and labeled as two horrible years.

 

No one in our current rotation had done better for a year than 23 year old Worley Circa 2011. The closest was 25 year old Nolasco in 2008.

 

Worley was beyond bad last year... But he was beyond good in 2011. Average in 2012...

 

2014?

 

Just looking at his B-Ref file, your Worley analysis makes sense. But there are two back stories.

 

The first is about how he gained his success in 2010 and 2011. A lot of his success was due to his unusual movement. As Parker wrote after the trade, got a lot of called third strikes on pitches he would throw at left handed hitters. Though his swinging K/9 ratio was low, he had decent K/9 rates in 2010/11 (8.3/8.1). Even in 2012, his K/9 rate was pretty good (7.2).

 

So what happened to his K/9 rate in 2013 (4.6)? Some of it is league adjustment. If you earn your living on deception, you will have a larger than normal drop in effectiveness from the NL to the AL.

 

Part of it was injury-related. He was pitching pretty well in 2012 until he developed bone chips, which limited his ability to throw his signature sinker with the same movement. In August, his Ks plummeted. He was shut down in September and had surgery to repair the elbow. When healthy again in 2013, he did not have the same movement on his sinker. Though he threw it in the same location a lot, he rarely got the call because it stayed inside.

 

Will he regain that movement? I don't know. But I compare him to Nick Blackburn, who had similar success (though not through looking Ks, through ground balls) through two years of pitching. Then he developed bone chips, which limited his movement. He never regained it. Blackburn is a common story for guys who rely so heavily on the sinker. They develop elbow problems and struggle.

 

I personally believe he can gt back some of the old magic, but I don't think 2012 is even his upside. I think he'll continue to struggle with AL hitters with his limited two-pitch arsenal. And I think he'll struggle to get the feel for his sinker back. Either way, he's a work in progress. I doubt he has the time to prove it before they have to cut him lose.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins have Worley and Diamond under team control through 2018 and Deduno through 2019. They all have upside of a 2-3 WAR pitcher. Pelfrey has the same upside. It is OK if the Twins end up having to DFA some of the three before assessing whether they can attain that upside as long as they get a pitcher with a significantly better upside. It isn't OK to replace them with a pitcher of the same upside and no control long term. Those are the decisions that will continue the cycle of mediocrity.

[Riverbrian]

Just looking at his B-Ref file, your Worley analysis makes sense. But there are two back stories.

 

The first is about how he gained his success in 2010 and 2011. A lot of his success was due to his unusual movement. As Parker wrote after the trade, got a lot of called third strikes on pitches he would throw at left handed hitters. Though his swinging K/9 ratio was low, he had decent K/9 rates in 2010/11 (8.3/8.1). Even in 2012, his K/9 rate was pretty good (7.2).

 

So what happened to his K/9 rate in 2013 (4.6)? Some of it is league adjustment. If you earn your living on deception, you will have a larger than normal drop in effectiveness from the NL to the AL.

 

Part of it was injury-related. He was pitching pretty well in 2012 until he developed bone chips, which limited his ability to throw his signature sinker with the same movement. In August, his Ks plummeted. He was shut down in September and had surgery to repair the elbow. When healthy again in 2013, he did not have the same movement on his sinker. Though he threw it in the same location a lot, he rarely got the call because it stayed inside.

 

Will he regain that movement? I don't know. But I compare him to Nick Blackburn, who had similar success (though not through looking Ks, through ground balls) through two years of pitching. Then he developed bone chips, which limited his movement. He never regained it. Blackburn is a common story for guys who rely so heavily on the sinker. They develop elbow problems and struggle.

 

I personally believe he can gt back some of the old magic, but I don't think 2012 is even his upside. I think he'll continue to struggle with AL hitters with his limited two-pitch arsenal. And I think he'll struggle to get the feel for his sinker back. Either way, he's a work in progress. I doubt he has the time to prove it before they have to cut him lose.

 

In the end... It comes down to individual belief in the big "IF"... If Worley can do it... And on that I agree with you.

 

I had a great seats last year right behind home plate for a Worley start and I was shocked by how flat and average his fastball was. I saw very little movement... I saw a fastball that was up consistently and I saw him throw that fastball over again while he ignored any other pitch in his arsenal. He got destroyed... Lasted maybe two innings... The ball was flying around the park... hard and long.

 

I came away from that game asking how did this guy make the major leagues. His performance was that awful.

 

With that said... 2011 was a great year for him at a very young age. I also noticed the high percentage of strikeouts that he compiled via the backwards K in 2011. It was sensible to assume that once batters started swinging instead of looking that he could get knocked around.

 

And with that said... To tie it all up in a bow... I don't think 2013 was accurate to draw a conclusion on Worley... It was so bad... How can it be accurate... And I don't think 2011 was accurate to draw a conclusion on because it was so good.

 

BUT... on the off chance that he can find 2011 again. At age 26... I'd hate to toss him aside for guys who have a longer track record but not a consistent better track record.

 

I hope the Twins find a bullpen role for Worley or space on the DL so we don't have to DFA him. I'm not comfortable cutting him loose. Unless... I know for sure... He is wrecked with injury or some kind of stubborn head case that refuses to try and correct his problems.

 

In my mind... I have Deduno ahead of him and Diamond for that last available spot... A mind that lacks complete information since I don't have access to medicals or specific coaching instruction or desire and attitude.

 

I'd like the Twins to find a way to hang on to all of them... Deduno with the last spot... Worley and Diamond in the pen... If they continue to struggle in 2014... Maybe then we can cut the cord but not until they actually struggle in 2014.

[cmathewson]

I had a great seats last year right behind home plate for a Worley start and I was shocked by how flat and average his fastball was. I saw very little movement... I saw a fastball that was up consistently and I saw him throw that fastball over again while he ignored any other pitch in his arsenal. He got destroyed... Lasted maybe two innings... The ball was flying around the park... hard and long.

 

That was his whole year. I would be more optimistic if he actually had other pitches in his arsenal. His slider is average at best, and inconsistent. And that's pretty much it. He is Joe Mays, Carlos Silva and Nick Blackburn all rolled up in a ball. Guys like him just don't project to having long careers. Considering that the Twins have something like a surplus of starters, I don't even care if they let him go. If May doesn't work out, what looked like a great trade for the Twins will be looking like a good trade for the Philies. Sometimes you win. Sometimes you lose. Sometimes it rains.

[Riverbrian]

That was his whole year. I would be more optimistic if he actually had other pitches in his arsenal. His slider is average at best, and inconsistent. And that's pretty much it. He is Joe Mays, Carlos Silva and Nick Blackburn all rolled up in a ball. Guys like him just don't project to having long careers. Considering that the Twins have something like a surplus of starters, I don't even care if they let him go. If May doesn't work out, what looked like a great trade for the Twins will be looking like a good trade for the Philies. Sometimes you win. Sometimes you lose. Sometimes it rains.

 

God I miss Ben Revere... His style of baseball is exactly my style of baseball. I would have made the trade... But... I would have buried myself in a bottle of Captain Morgan afterwards. I don't care about his slugging... Just put him on my field and let him run and do his full speed thing.

 

Back on Worley... I couldn't help but wonder about the game being called by Mauer behind the plate. Even if his breaking stuff is below average... You still have to mix it up. Worley was unmixed... Somebody needed to change and I wonder if that wasn't part of the problem.

[cmathewson]

Back on Worley... I couldn't help but wonder about the game being called by Mauer behind the plate. Even if his breaking stuff is below average... You still have to mix it up. Worley was unmixed... Somebody needed to change and I wonder if that wasn't part of the problem.

 

I have rarely seen so many shake offs and trips to the mound than when Worley pitched. Anderson was beside himself a couple of times after the game when describing how Worley deviated from the game plan to use more breaking stuff, instead insisting on using number 1 almost exclusively. I'm sure for Andy, it was deja vu all over again, cause that was a sore spot with Blackburn as well.