I may be wrong, but I do not believe you can deal damaged goods. If they were open and honest and the Twins bought that's one thing, but MLB isn't a buyer's beware situation.

 

Edit: Mayo just ranked him as the Twin's 13th rated prospect.

 

That lofty ranking is because Mayo is the very last stubborn holdout amongst those analysts who previously had given Gilmartin his lofty rankings within the Braves system (He kept Gilmartin as the #4 Braves prospect when everyone else bailed). For the rest of the prospect analysts, Gilmartin's ship has already sailed.

 

I hope Mayo turns out to be the maritime hero and proven right, but at this point, there are a lot more questions than answers on Gilmartin's return to even sea level form.

Edited December 21, 201312 yr by jokin

Great move! With Kris Johnson and now Gilmartin, it looks like they're rethinking the pecking order and roles of our lefties.

 

Yep. Some of our lefties will soon have no role

Maybe it's just me, but I don't put a lot of stock into scouting reports about defense. I don't think most scouts see players enough to make a really accurate assessment. I could be wrong about this, but it seems a lot of players come with a degree of hype that is rarely deserved.

 

It makes sense too, if you are watching a pitchers mechanics, seeing them 2 or 3 times gives you dozens to hundreds of data points. Seeing a hitter for 2-3 games gives you dozens of data points about their swing mechanics. But how many data points do you get on how a guy moves to his left at SS. Or how he reads lines drives in the RF gap?

 

Delmon Young and many, many others have shown us that guys can come with a lot of undue hype just because hype is the way scouts and websites sell themselves. I'm more convinced by what I see from them than what I hear about them. And what I saw from Arcia was not good.

Given this system, 13 seems pretty high. And I'm a guy that values upper level success over potential.

 

It all hinges on his velocity. If he can get back to 90, he could crack the Twins' top ten. If he's at 86-87 for eternity, he's in the 20s somewhere.

 

If his velocity stays at 86-87 he's barely a top 50 prospect.

 

The problem with everyone's optimism is that in his 'good' season he still only struck out 6.5 batters/inning in AA.

To me this is a gamble. I don't think Gilmartin is gonna make it but why not take a shot at a left hander with this kind of stuff when healthy.

If his velocity stays at 86-87 he's barely a top 50 prospect.

 

The problem with everyone's optimism is that in his 'good' season he still only struck out 6.5 batters/inning in AA.

 

By the time you hit "prospect" #25 in any organization, they're barely prospects at all. At that point, why do you even care?

 

Call him prospect #28 because he was a first round pick. Call him prospect #43 because he can't throw over 86mph. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter one bit. The guy has about a 1% chance of ever playing more than a couple of games in MLB.

By the time you hit "prospect" #25 in any organization, they're barely prospects at all. At that point, why do you even care?

 

Call him prospect #28 because he was a first round pick. Call him prospect #43 because he can't throw over 86mph. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter one bit. The guy has about a 1% chance of ever playing more than a couple of games in MLB.

 

Agree to disagree???

Given this system, 13 seems pretty high. And I'm a guy that values upper level success over potential.

 

It all hinges on his velocity. If he can get back to 90, he could crack the Twins' top ten. If he's at 86-87 for eternity, he's in the 20s somewhere.

 

He's a richer version of Matt Thomshaw. Great location with low 90s fastball. Thomshaw has several pitches and knows how to locate. Although we may be getting away from the "Pitch to contact" philosophy - It aint all bad. Some of those guys in your bullpen make for a nice change of pace in situational cases. Thomshaw is my sleeper in the Twins system this year. Nothing fancy - just results.

I may be wrong, but I do not believe you can deal damaged goods. If they were open and honest and the Twins bought that's one thing, but MLB isn't a buyer's beware situation.

 

Edit: Mayo just ranked him as the Twin's 13th rated prospect.

 

Didnt Vance Worley finish the 2012 season on the DL and then need to have bone chips removed during the off season?

By the time you hit "prospect" #25 in any organization, they're barely prospects at all. At that point, why do you even care?

 

Call him prospect #28 because he was a first round pick. Call him prospect #43 because he can't throw over 86mph. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter one bit. The guy has about a 1% chance of ever playing more than a couple of games in MLB.

 

When I think of a top 25 prospect in a strong and deep org I typically think of someone that is interesting in some way - tonkin/Goodrum/Jorge/ZJones. Gilmartin throwing 86-87 is completely uninteresting. If it helps maybe I should say he's not a prospect at that point.

When I think of a top 25 prospect in a strong and deep org I typically think of someone that is interesting in some way - tonkin/Goodrum/Jorge/ZJones. Gilmartin throwing 86-87 is completely uninteresting. If it helps maybe I should say he's not a prospect at that point.

 

Eh, I think he's still a prospect. The chances of him ever being a long-term roster solution drop to virtually zero but given that he's left-handed and had a history of being a control guy, he's still in the mix.

 

It doesn't take much for a lefty to continue being a prospect because they're so in demand on a typical MLB roster. If Gilmartin was a righty, I'd agree with you. He'd be a non-prospect at 86mph.

Agree to disagree???

 

Seth, you always look for the best in prospects. I'm not the slightest bit surprised that you disagree.

At some level, you need to almost blindly accumulate top starting pitching prospects because the burn rate is so high. For our favorite team, 5 is scary, 10 is about right, and 15 is an abundance of riches. I've heard both Brad Pitt and Andy MacPhail say they use roughly a 3 to 1 ratio. Three top starting pitching prospects, yields one solid major league starter.

Great deal for the Twins. Doumit was the epitome of a boring Twins year last year to me--not only was he terrible, but I have nothing invested in him as a fan either (unlike Plouffe or Parm or Colabello, etc., who you're interested to see if they develop to any extent), so he is a guy that I have wanted gone for a while now. As Gleeman and the Geek said this week, he has negative value for the Twins, so just being able to dump his salary is great, and on top of that, they grabbed a nice lottery ticket. Gilmartin probably won't ever amount to anything, but that's ok. Any value will ever give the Twins is a bonus.