Danny Valencia traded to Royals

[jokin]

Hah!

 

Hey, maybe Valencia is an outlier. It's definitely possible, I'm merely suggesting that given his makeup, it's not likely that he can sustain a perennial .330 BABIP.

 

Anyone with a career .879 OPS LHP split, with a BABIP-tastic career BABIP of .357 vs. LHP (2 years over .400 BABIP, 2010 and 2013), is worth a small gamble in a platoon-heavy role. No doubt that DannyV is a VERY limited player, but he is pretty darn good at what little he clearly does well.

[big dog]

It's probably worth a shot at a pretty cheap price for KC to try DannyV as (at least a part-time) platoon partner for Melotakis @ 3B. Melotakis' career split vs. LHP is OPS .606 and in 2013 it was OPS.546. Valencia hit LHP OPS .1031 in 2013 and has hit OPS .879 career versus LHP.

One problem with that is no one trusts him at third. He was a dh for the sox and orioles for a reason. He was a bad fielder for the twins. Will the royals get value from him at third? It will be fun to watch people bunt on him if they try.

 

Platoon at dh? Might be worth a try.

[Danchat]

Great conversation, guys.

I just found it hilarious when a random Royals fan commented that "Danny Valencia is a good defender". I laughed for 4 straight minutes and then did a "wait... is he serious?"

Lough's defense at the very least makes him better.

[jokin]

One problem with that is no one trusts him at third. He was a dh for the sox and orioles for a reason. He was a bad fielder for the twins. Will the royals get value from him at third? It will be fun to watch people bunt on him if they try.

 

Platoon at dh? Might be worth a try.

 

FWIW- he played 10 games at 3B for the Red Sox and didn't DH. But no doubt, he's not a good defender, but Moustakas is awful against LHP, so giving Moustakas a day or perhaps occasionally two off per week probably isn't worse than a wash. Plus, you can still platoon at DH DannyV and also have his pinch hit bat.

[jokin]

Heh, Omar Infante.

 

I don't like many (maybe even most) of Moore's decisions. But I'm not trying to bash Moore... I'm taking more of a swing at the people who think Danny Valencia was some kind of brilliant acquisition by Duquette.

 

The Orioles got lucky with Valencia in 2013. The smartest thing Duquette did was realize that fact and shoo Danny out of town before anyone else noticed.

 

Noticing that a FA guy who once finished 3rd in ROY, and had a career OPS of .879 against lefties doesn't make Duquette brilliant, but it does make him smart for taking a chance on him as a no-risk guy you can stash in the minor leagues on the off-hand chance that he would find his stroke, and then- here's where the brilliant actually comes into play- carefully inserting him in your lineup where he best has the chance to succeed, and when he does, flipping that lighning in a bottle for someone with more upside, at 3-years of cost-controlled minimum wage, who fills a hole that would have cost you $16.5M to keep the alternative (McClouth).

[Brock Beauchamp]

Noticing that a FA guy who once finished 3rd in ROY, and had a career OPS of .879 against lefties doesn't make Duquette brilliant, but it does make him smart for taking a chance on him as a no-risk guy you can stash in the minor leagues on the off-hand chance that he would find his stroke, and then- here's where the brilliant actually comes into play- carefully inserting him in your lineup where he best has the chance to succeed, and when he does, flipping that lighning in a bottle for someone with more upside, at 3-years of cost-controlled minimum wage, who fills a hole that would have cost you $16.5M to keep the alternative (McClouth).

 

Sure, picking up Valencia was an okay move. The thing is that without that absurd BABIP and essentially getting lucky, Valencia is a really marginal player.

 

First, he's the wrong side of a platoon. No matter what you do, the guy is going to take many of his ABs against RHP. It's inevitable and you can basically write off any ABs he takes after the sixth inning. There is no reason he should ever face a lefty out of the bullpen. Ever.

 

Second, he's an awful defender at third.

 

Will it work out for the Royals? Sure, Valencia may get lucky and post an absurd BABIP against lefties again. Is it likely that it will work out? No, probably not.

 

I'm still floored that Duquette was able to get anything for a guy with 170 PAs in 2013, much less what looks to be a decent fourth outfielder. Every single stat line in Valencia's 2013 SSS screams regression in a big, bad way. Well, except for his BABIP against RHP. But that's not exactly the stat line you want to see up on the upswing in a platoon player.

 

Also, it should be noted that the Orioles didn't do a particularly good job of protecting Valencia against righties, which puts into the question their "setting him up to succeed". Valencia had 102 PAs against lefties, 68 PAs against righties. Sure, it's hard to protect a RHB platoon against righties but at a glance, it doesn't look like the Orioles even tried that hard to do it. 68 PAs is 40% of his total PAs in 2013.

 

Again, Duquette made a marginal move and got really lucky with it. The smartest thing he did was recognize that luck and flipped that player for something before he regressed.