Article: Betting Against The House

[cmathewson]

I think he'll sign Drew and Suzuki (though not for offense), and hope for rebounds from three of Hammer, Plouffe, Doumit, Hicks and Kubel.

 

Other than Arcia, the real offense is coming in a year: Sano, Rosario and Buxton will give this lineup considerable lift. I'm sure he doesn't want to sign offense that will block them.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now on Fangraphs:

 

Dan Szymborski:

I'm kind of amused that Pelfrey got a 50% raise for a 78 ERA+.

[Mike Frasier Law]

When I read the headline, I took your analogy differently, more like what Mackey wrote yesterday: http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Mackey_Twins_finally_bump_the_undeserving_bunch_far_down_SP_ladder121513

 

In other words, the Twins are betting against the house in that they are betting that Pelfrey is better than any in-house "filler" option, and moves everyone down a spot on the depth chart. I buy it. I think he allows the Twins to keep people in the minors that need development while not completely embarrassing the major league team. I don't think he blocks anyone that shouldn't be blocked - when a Meyer or May is ready, it will be easy enough to find a spot for them.

[Thrylos]

Just now on Fangraphs:

 

Dan Szymborski:

I'm kind of amused that Pelfrey got a 50% raise for a 78 ERA+.

 

Got to love ERA-based analysis...

especially from the same place that lists Pelfrey at 2.1 WAR with a $10M+ value in 2013

[nicksaviking]

I don't think so... What I think is more likely is that Ryan deals a bullpen arm. Swarzak, Burton, Fein, and Duensing all have value. Dishing off one of them and slotting in Worley/Diamond/Deduno makes more sense than trading a starter whose value is minimal.

 

The backend starters and bullpen guys should be packaged together in my opinion. The return should be better even if only minimally better. The Twins can swap two 40-man spots for one or maybe none if the return is youngsters. I didn't like the Lirano/Morneau trades simply because the Twins were on the wrong end of those equations.

[johnnydakota]

I wish I shared your optimism on Worley. To me, he's Nick Blackburn II. I saw nothing last year that would inspire confidence in him. Too many hard-hit balls, not enough easy grounders.

 

Deduno misses bats. Unfortunately, he also misses the plate too much. But even when they put it in play, it is such weak sh*t that they can't get it out of the infield. I saw him get eight out of the first nine outs on choppers between the pitcher and first baseman in one game. It was a thing of beauty. He has the kind of movement that, even when they make contact, he just gets easy grounders.

 

If Deduno hadn't pulled his groin in the rainstorm in the WBC final game, he would have easily been the top starter for the Twins last year. As it was, he was their top starter in the second half. Worley started the year as the designated top starter and finished with a middling stint in AAA. If it were me, I'd DFA him now to make room for Pelfrey. But they have too much invested in him with Revere to do that.

 

While I agree Worley showed nothing last year, dont forget, he was damaged goods when we traded for him, Do I think he will be the pitcher he was his first half season with the Phillys? No , But me thinks there is a 4-5th starter in him if healthy...

[Brock Beauchamp]

While I agree Worley showed nothing last year, dont forget, he was damaged goods when we traded for him, Do I think he will be the pitcher he was his first half season with the Phillys? No , But me thinks there is a 4-5th starter in him if healthy...

 

Pretty much this. Out of Diamond/Worley/Deduno, I think Worley has the best chance of sustained success, though it will be back of the rotation type work.

 

Deduno might have a higher peak but the dude is 30 years old and hasn't stayed healthy. It's a mistake to rely on him for anything at this point.

[howieramone1406390264]

The good thing is we are having a civil discussion about our starting pitching depth. I was hoping for 2 FA starting pitchers, but not expecting two I like as well as Nolasco and Hughes, and was pretty sure Pelfrey would come back but not at such an attractive price. Game Thread is always fun, but this year it will be better.

[jokin]

Got to love ERA-based analysis...

especially from the same place that lists Pelfrey at 2.1 WAR with a $10M+ value in 2013

 

The flaws in WAR for SPs on Fangraphs is well-documented and makes the stat suspect. If BR had even a positive WAR for Pelf, I could be sympathetic, but alas, his bWAR is -0.3!....and ESPN concurs with the same WAR rating.

 

The stats suggest that Pelfrey will be better than last year.....but come on, it's hard for him to be worse. The striking thing that no one mentions much is Pelfrey's K/9 of 5.95 and K% of ~15% with the Twins are higher numbers than in ANY of his 5 healthy years, 2007-2011....This bucking of the trend in the opposite direction from all the rest of the Twins Starters might augur well for 2014, with his TJ-produced "stronger arm."

 

His overall performance in those years was all over tha map, almost as maddening as watching him pitch live. The positive spin is Steamer forecasts Pelf building on those 2013 K numbers (K/9 6.14, K% 15.8%) and also coming in at below-career averages in ERA 4.29 and FIP 4.08. If he could come anywhere close to those numbers, Ryan will look like a veritable genius, and the backend of the rotation would be secured (even if still unwatchable with Pelfrey there).

[Thrylos]

The flaws in WAR for SPs on Fangraphs is well-documented and makes the stat suspect. If BR had even a positive WAR for Pelf, I could be sympathetic, but alas, his bWAR is -0.3!....and ESPN concurs with the same WAR rating.

 

One can argue on whether or not a FIP-based was has problems, but my point was not that.

 

My point was that (for good or bad) at one place at fangraphs, sets Pelfrey's value at $10M plus, while at another place argues that $5.5M is too much.

 

Consistency. Either or. Cannot have both.

[JP3700]

The signing itself isn't the problem. In fact, I think there's a good chance that he's worth his contract. In the five years where he pitched a full season, Pelfrey has averaged between 1.1 - 1.8 WAR a year depending on if you use BR or FG. If he is somewhere in the middle and is worth 1.5 WAR each of the two years he's signed, then he is worth every penny.

 

The problem is that I don't know what direction the team is going.

 

Pelfrey at his best takes the team from 76 to 78 wins, and that win projection may already be optimistic. This is assuming that Pelfrey will be at his best and the other options are replacement level. Both of which aren't even close to being a given.

 

More important is that Pelfrey isn't an asset. Teams aren't lining up to acquire 30+ year old below league average starters. You can find those guys every year on the free agent market. However, teams will give you a call about young, cost controlled pitching and possibly offer some real value.

 

If the team were in need for a back end starter to fill out the rotation on a contending team, then this move would make perfect sense. But in the position they are in, it makes more sense to give innings to Gibson, Worley and Diamond. Go for it or build for the future. Attempting to reach mediocrity shouldn't be the goal.

[jokin]

The signing itself isn't the problem. In fact, I think there's a good chance that he's worth his contract. In the five years where he pitched a full season, Pelfrey has averaged between 1.1 - 1.8 WAR a year depending on if you use BR or FG. If he is somewhere in the middle and is worth 1.5 WAR each of the two years he's signed, then he is worth every penny.

 

The problem is that I don't know what direction the team is going.

 

Pelfrey at his best takes the team from 76 to 78 wins, and that win projection may already be optimistic. This is assuming that Pelfrey will be at his best and the other options are replacement level. Both of which aren't even close to being a given.

 

More important is that Pelfrey isn't an asset. Teams aren't lining up to acquire 30+ year old below league average starters. You can find those guys every year on the free agent market. However, teams will give you a call about young, cost controlled pitching and possibly offer some real value.

 

If the team were in need for a back end starter to fill out the rotation on a contending team, then this move would make perfect sense. But in the position they are in, it makes more sense to give innings to Gibson, Worley and Diamond. Go for it or build for the future. Attempting to reach mediocrity shouldn't be the goal.

 

If Correia gets moved (I know, a BIG if!), there's plenty of room for Gibson, Meyer, et al to fill the mid-rotation spots and for Pelfrey to take his "mediocrity at a cheap price" to the backend of the rotaton. But you're right, signing basically unflippable guys like Pelfrey and Correia make no sense for a team looking to rebuild. The original Plan A, now morphing into Plan B, still has the same lack of clarity from this type of signing. I'm still puzzled that a Winter Meeting roster-space-creating trade didn't transpire and that they walked away from JP Arrencibia for only $2M, people got on him for a low BA, but he has legit power and can frame pitches at a very high level (they probably were afraid that his "habits", hitting-wise, would be a bad influence on Pinto). The Rangers got a steal in Arrencibia in their ballpark.

[Thrylos]

I'm still puzzled that a Winter Meeting roster-space-creating trade didn't transpire and that they walked away from JP Arrencibia for only $2M, people got on him for a low BA, but he has legit power and can frame pitches at a very high level (they probably were afraid that his "habits", hitting-wise, would be a bad influence on Pinto). The Rangers got a steal in Arrencibia in their ballpark.

 

.194/.227/.365, 59 OPS+: Arencibia in 2013

.198/.270/.279, 53 OPS+: Butera in 2012

[TheLeviathan]

.194/.227/.365, 59 OPS+: Arencibia in 2013

.198/.270/.279, 53 OPS+: Butera in 2012

 

There are plenty of examples of former top talents floundering and then rebounding to have solid careers. Chris Davis had a 51 OPS + when he was dealt. They threw a few bucks towards getting a steal. I'm all for more of that from the Twins.

[Dman]

There are plenty of examples of former top talents floundering and then rebounding to have solid careers. Chris Davis had a 51 OPS + when he was dealt. They threw a few bucks towards getting a steal. I'm all for more of that from the Twins.

 

I agree the thinking has to be that the guys they got have a better then average chance to rebound and be valuable to the team currently and possibly to trade if that makes sense.

[Guest USAFChief]

.194/.227/.365, 59 OPS+: Arencibia in 2013

.198/.270/.279, 53 OPS+: Butera in 2012

.233/.275/.435 , 90 OPS+: Arencibia in 2012

[Otto von Ballpark]

.194/.227/.365, 59 OPS+: Arencibia in 2013

.198/.270/.279, 53 OPS+: Butera in 2012

 

I really don't care much about Arencibia, but Butera's "comparable" OPS+ in 2012 was almost entirely due to 9 BB in 122 PA, about double his career MLB rate and even higher than his career AAA rate.

[Rosterman]

No one can say Correia or Pelfrey or anyone is unflipable. Time will tell. It's just thinking of moving IF the time is right. Seemthing the Oakland A's seem to do very well, although their return is not always stellar.

[jokin]

No one can say Correia or Pelfrey or anyone is unflipable. Time will tell. It's just thinking of moving IF the time is right. Seemthing the Oakland A's seem to do very well, although their return is not always stellar.

 

Yeah, but put yourself in the shoes of every other GM. Terry Ryan was the guy who signed these two a year ago- both of their previous teams were happy to move on, and TR was virtually unopposed in bargaining with them- likely for good reason- PTC is a desirable trait in a SP FA to virtually no other GM than Terry Ryan- and unless someone is absolutey desperate, the Twins really can't expect much more than a Pedro Hernandez-type or "C +"- level prospect in return.