Article: Betting Against The House

[John Bonnes]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/2542-Betting-Against-The-House

[Mr. Ed]

So when Pelfrey labors through 4 or 5 innings this year, fans should applaud and be proud when he says that it's on him again? Feh. Bad signing.

[TheLeviathan]

I say the Twins are hoping to recoup his salary in having extended open times for the concessions every fifth day. We're talking like 20-30 more hours of beer and nacho sales baby!

[Dman]

Other than Nolasco all of our pitching is a gamble or faith based in my opinion. There are Stats to suggest that these guys can rebound in a big way but odds are they are what they are and that is not a major improvement. I don't think this staff is going to be playoff caliber, but I don't think they are going to be as bad as last years staff either.

 

Personally I like the plan. Bridge the gap to the younger players. See what you have and you should have money available again to fill in the holes as you hopefully become relevant. Lots of risk in that approach but unless they are willing to buy an ace they are going to have to wait to develop one before they can compete with the big boys.

[PseudoSABR]

Part of the Twins gamble (and I don't know that I approve the deal) is that even if they lose on their bet they still get something of value particularly to the Twins (non-totally awful pitching); so in that sense, with the extra money to spend, a gamble where you obtain something of value even when you lose and potentially something of great value when you win is a good bet.

 

Another risk, of course, is the notion that Pelfrey will keep a better pitcher out of the rotation either now or in the future because of his contract. Unless you're completely sold on both Deduno and Gibson, I'm not sure that's going to be the case for the early part of this season, and undoubtedly we'll see a number of pitchers more undesirable than Pelfrey take the mound whether the Twins sign him or not.

[Jdosen]

I can't stand this deal. If the Twins were just to bring him back for 1 year, I could handle that, but as one of you said on the podcast, Mike Pelfrey or someone pretty much equal is out there EVERY offseason. Mike Pelfrey isn't a guy you need to lock up.

[Thrylos]

ERA?

 

Please.

 

How about some W-L or "quality starts"-based conclusions?

 

Pelfrey led the team in FIP, K%, and pitcher WAR, in a season that he made a record recovery from TJ surgery. The best pitcher they had last season and at 29 years old, his next 2 seasons (at around what the Twins paid Nick Blackburn not to play last season, btw) are a great bet for a middle to end of the rotation guy.

[MNfan34]

This deal isn't worth getting upset about. So much complaining about a FA signing. You would think we traded Ramos again or something.

 

This contract will not limit them in any way. They are limited in the fact that decent players are passing up offers we put down to play in more desirable situations. We know AJ got a bigger offer from us, but chose to play elsewhere.

 

Would I rather have Garza on a 3 year deal? Of course. Would I rather have Kazmir? Yes. Arroyo? Maybe. Until the Twins start winning, they won't sign many players without a big overpay.

 

I don't see this contract meaning that he is blocking anyone. Still, I am in no rush to get Gibson or Meyer to the majors until we are sure they are actually ready and we can put a real team in the field behind them (2015)

[Reider]

There's no point in getting worked up. It's difficult to turn the worst starting rotation into an above average rotation in one off season. Secondly, like was already mentioned, we can't force people to sign here. We have to take what we can get. If guys like AJ, Salty, and Garza prefer not playing in Minnesota this year, we have to deal with it and move on. Thirdly, it seemed like there was a general consensus that fans felt the Twins needed to sign 2 or 3 starting pitchers. The Twins went and signed Nolasco and Hughes and brought Pelfrey back. And now everybody is whining, when the Twins went out and did what they set out to do and what the fans wanted them to do. What more do you want in one off season? Would you rather Terry Ryan sat on his hands like he's been doing up until now? Unbelievable.

 

Who did you expect the Twins to sign?? The Twins couldn't have signed guys like Scherzer because they aren't even free agents. Yeah, there were and are guys out there like Kazmir, Arroyo, and Garza, but what if they won't sign with Minnesota? What if one of them will sign with Minnesota soon? Will the crying stop?

 

Lets look on the bright side, I'm sure to the surprise of everyone, the Twins are still hot after starting pitching as it was reported a couple hours after the unofficial Pelfrey re-signing announcement that they are strongly interested in Arroyo. Perhaps Garza (or a trade for another good pitcher) is still on the radar? It doesn't sound like the Twins are done looking at their options.

 

Fans need to realize that the Twins can only play the hand that they are dealt. The rebuilding of the starting rotation is only beginning. They can still develop, sign, and trade for pitchers moving forward.We all knew that 2014 would likely be another -.500 year, so lets just see how things play out before we get too excited.

[MNfan34]

There's no point in getting worked up. It's difficult to turn the worst starting rotation into an above average rotation in one off season. Secondly, like was already mentioned, we can't force people to sign here. We have to take what we can get. If guys like AJ, Salty, and Garza prefer not playing in Minnesota this year, we have to deal with it and move on. Thirdly, it seemed like there was a general consensus that fans felt the Twins needed to sign 2 or 3 starting pitchers. The Twins went and signed Nolasco and Hughes and brought Pelfrey back. And now everybody is whining, when the Twins went out and did what they set out to do and what the fans wanted them to do. What more do you want in one off season? Would you rather Terry Ryan sat on his hands like he's been doing up until now? Unbelievable.

 

Who did you expect the Twins to sign?? The Twins couldn't have signed guys like Scherzer because they aren't even free agents. Yeah, there were and are guys out there like Kazmir, Arroyo, and Garza, but what if they won't sign with Minnesota? What if one of them will sign with Minnesota soon? Will the crying stop?

 

Lets look on the bright side, I'm sure to the surprise of everyone, the Twins are still hot after starting pitching as it was reported a couple hours after the unofficial Pelfrey re-signing announcement that they are strongly interested in Arroyo. Perhaps Garza (or a trade for another good pitcher) is still on the radar? It doesn't sound like the Twins are done looking at their options.

 

Fans need to realize that the Twins can only play the hand that they are dealt. The rebuilding of the starting rotation is only beginning. They can still develop, sign, and trade for pitchers moving forward.We all knew that 2014 would likely be another -.500 year, so lets just see how things play out before we get too excited.

 

haha we practically double posted.

 

He had a better season than Hughes did. Less dollars and years. It is just because Pelfrey takes 15 minutes between pitches.

[Jim H]

When he was healthy, Pelfrey was a mid-rotation starter. That is really all Garza has been. Arroyo is nearing 40 and Kazmir has had all sort of health issues. It would not be too farfetched if Pelfrey pitches better than these 3 over the next 2 years. Even if he doesn't, if the Twins are going to have a strong rotation soon, it will likely be because of Meyer, Gibson, and maybe May, Darnell and Worley. Not likely all of them, but some 2 or 3 that figure it out pitch well in the majors within the next 2 to 3 years.

 

Pelfrey is at best, a placeholder for what we hope will be a wave of young talent working its way to the majors. In fact that is what Correia, Hughes and Nolasco are, hopefully. I am not going to get very worked up over which mid-rotation starters the Twins have signed this winter. Hopefully, the young talent can begin to replace them as soon as this year.

[johnnydakota]

It simply comes down to Hughes and pelfrey workout , or terry and gang are gone....

[OldManWinter]

Maybe in other organuzations ... but I think TR has a way longer leash than that with Pohlads.

[howieramone1406390264]

It simply comes down to Hughes and pelfrey workout , or terry and gang are gone....

 

Terry Ryan has a lifetime deal with the Pohlads, in fact they are negotiating an extension. They want to make it hereditary.

[johnnydakota]

Terry Ryan has a lifetime deal with the Pohlads, in fact they are negotiating an extension. They want to make it hereditary.

 

Sick, A legacy employee who has failed at the teams mission statement for 20+ years continues to be given more and more chances, if so it simply comes down to money in the owners pockets and less about a winning a World Series.

[Outlier]

ERA?

 

Please.

 

How about some W-L or "quality starts"-based conclusions?

 

Pelfrey led the team in FIP, K%, and pitcher WAR, in a season that he made a record recovery from TJ surgery. The best pitcher they had last season and at 29 years old, his next 2 seasons (at around what the Twins paid Nick Blackburn not to play last season, btw) are a great bet for a middle to end of the rotation guy.

 

Can you or anyone please explain why Fangraphs WAR (Pelfrey at 2.1) is accurate and Baseball Reference WAR (Pelfrey at -0.3) is not.

[ND-Fan]

The Twins have run out faith in counting on Diamond, Deduno, Worley, and Albers. They will keep as many of these pitchers as they can at the Triple A and I believe they are in no rush to bring up Gibson or Myer until they are sure they can compete at major league level. This reaction by organization to stock pile some pitching and if need be move some of the pitching into reliever roll. I also think the Twins have been signing pitchers to longer term contract as hedge against major league inflation for pitching. Its also may pay returns in that if these pitchers do have better years they still have control and will give twins a lot of value or cost savings. Look at Kansas City they got Santanna on one year deal and he had great year but lost control of him and are looking for pitching to replace him. Same thing for Cleveland they had Kasmir and Jimenez they both became free agents and above Cleveland's ability to resign them. Kasmir was one year deal last year on minor league contract and now look it took 22 million to sign him this year and Jiminez is still to be signed at least they will get a draft pick here. So you can see a little the Twins are investing in long run and my bet is they are going to strike pay dirt more than they are going to loose on these deals. Look at Major league baseball there's real shortage of starting pitching and a lot of the pitchers are near the end of there careers. High Quality starters are either been locked up in contracts or are traded near the end to teams that need that kind of pitching to get over the hump and will become free agents in a year or two. John I thought same thing last year when Twins signed Correia and they could sign another pitcher if they needed to again next year but look what pitcher of Correia caliber is signing for anywhere from 6 to 10 million this off season. If we have another year of this were going to see pitcher like this range 8 to 12 million a year. I wonder what the top of line pitching is going to command when Price and Kershaw hit the market. Look next year Yankee's are going to be looking for number of pitchers, Boston very likely too with number of pitchers getting near end of their contracts so you can see coming year there's going to real demand for pitching by teams with big payrolls. I also think the Twins are trying to time some of their pitching and young players in field to be coming up in similar time frames to maximize depth of team when they have control of these players during there peak years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Can you or anyone please explain why Fangraphs WAR (Pelfrey at 2.1) is accurate and Baseball Reference WAR (Pelfrey at -0.3) is not.

 

In a word, it's not. Fangraphs uses FIP, which attempts to remove fielding influences from a pitcher's WAR. It's a fine metric but is representative of what should have happened, not what actually happened.

 

When it comes to the value of a pitcher's performance, I prefer to go with what actually happened.

 

When it comes to projecting a pitcher's performance, I prefer to go with what should have happened.

 

Past performance, I believe BB-Ref WAR is a better metric. Future prediction of performance, I believe FG WAR is a better metric.

[cmathewson]

This reminds me of the Correia signing. The Twins are looking for a bargain to fill out the back of the rotation. They think he will be better in 2014 than 2013. The bet is not entirely like roulette. It's more like poker. They have counted the cards, and they expect a good hand based on what's left in the deck.

 

In this case, the card counting amounts to the known phenomenon of guys doing better in their second year after TJ surgery. The odds are long enough that they can make a relatively small bet and get a relatively high reward. But they also might end up needing to fold. In that event, they are hedging their bets by signing multiple guys and hoping some of them pan out.

 

The worst case is a season like last year, when he was just good enough to make us keep betting on him by giving him innings and he wasn't bad enough to make us dump him (fold). It's like that three of a kind you have when the guy you're betting against has a full house. You just keep tossing in your chips until the hand is called and you lose.

[Mike Sixel]

The issue will be if others are better in AAA, but stuck there because he's "acceptable" enough. I don't particularily like this deal. I also don't know how they plan to score any runs next year, and if you aren't, what is the point of signing a stop gap pitcher?

[Brock Beauchamp]

The issue will be if others are better in AAA, but stuck there because he's "acceptable" enough. I don't particularily like this deal. I also don't know how they plan to score any runs next year, and if you aren't, what is the point of signing a stop gap pitcher?

 

Do you really see that happening in 2014, though? This season, it's going to be Worley, Deduno, and Diamond fighting for one spot in the rotation. At some point, a pitcher will fail or go down with injury and a second guy will get a shot, probably around the time Gibson is throwing his hat back into the mix.

 

Next season, Correia is gone. The Twins will (theoretically) have two open rotation spots for Deduno, Worley, Diamond, Gibson, and Meyer. At least two of Deduno, Worley, and Diamond will be gone at that point through trade or ineffectiveness.

 

I don't see it becoming a problem, really.

[Mike Sixel]

If Worley and Gibson are healthy, I think they are both as good as Pelfrey. And then next year Meyer will be up (if not this year). So I think it is possible. Certain? No.

 

but again, I don't see the point, unless they think Sano and Buxton are up this year. They could have just rolled those guys (the pitchers) all out there this week to see what they have (or don't) because this offense was awful last year. Adding a great pitcher, or great hitter, that makes sense to me. Adding a stop gap? Not so much.

[cmathewson]

Do you really see that happening in 2014, though? This season, it's going to be Worley, Deduno, and Diamond fighting for one spot in the rotation. At some point, a pitcher will fail or go down with injury and a second guy will get a shot, probably around the time Gibson is throwing his hat back into the mix.

 

Next season, Correia is gone. The Twins will (theoretically) have two open rotation spots for Deduno, Worley, Diamond, Gibson, and Meyer. At least two of Deduno, Worley, and Diamond will be gone at that point through trade or ineffectiveness.

 

I don't see it becoming a problem, really.

 

The only problem is options. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Worley, Diamond and Deduno are out of options. Diamond could potentially take a swing-man role int eh bullpen. But Worley or Deduno will get claimed on waivers if they attempt to pass them through. Here's hoping Deduno gets the fifth spot, Diamond gets the swing job and Worley gets claimed by the Royals. Gibson and Meyer can fine tune in AAA all year for all I care.

 

They lose Deduno as well if they sign Arroyo or Garza. But he might have some trade value.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The only problem is options. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Worley, Diamond and Deduno are out of options. Diamond could potentially take a swing-man role int eh bullpen. But Worley or Deduno will get claimed on waivers if they attempt to pass them through. Here's hoping Deduno gets the fifth spot, Diamond gets the swing job and Worley gets claimed by the Royals. Gibson and Meyer can fine tune in AAA all year for all I care.

 

They lose Deduno as well if they sign Arroyo or Garza. But he might have some trade value.

 

Switch Worley and Deduno and I agree. I think Worley has a much better chance of succeeding over the course of a season than Deduno.

 

Here's what I see happening:

 

1. Nolasco

2. Hughes

3. Pelfrey

4. Correia

5. Worley

 

Bullpen: Diamond

 

Question mark: Deduno, who may start the season on the DL.

 

First guy that goes down will be replaced by either Deduno or Gibson.

[Major League Ready]

I sure hope we have the problem of so many guys performing well that we don't have room for them all. Man, I would love to have that problem.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I sure hope we have the problem of so many guys performing well that we don't have room for them all. Man, I would love to have that problem.

 

Yes. It doesn't make sense to complain that Pedro Hernandez is getting starts in 2013 and then complain that the Twins have too many options in 2014.

 

None of their 5/6/7 "options" are particularly good nor have they earned a full-time spot in the rotation. Let them battle in Spring Training, dump the worst of the three, and move on with the season.

[cmathewson]

Switch Worley and Deduno and I agree. I think Worley has a much better chance of succeeding over the course of a season than Deduno.

 

Here's what I see happening:

 

1. Nolasco

2. Hughes

3. Pelfrey

4. Correia

5. Worley

 

Bullpen: Diamond

 

Question mark: Deduno, who may start the season on the DL.

 

First guy that goes down will be replaced by either Deduno or Gibson.

 

I wish I shared your optimism on Worley. To me, he's Nick Blackburn II. I saw nothing last year that would inspire confidence in him. Too many hard-hit balls, not enough easy grounders.

 

Deduno misses bats. Unfortunately, he also misses the plate too much. But even when they put it in play, it is such weak sh*t that they can't get it out of the infield. I saw him get eight out of the first nine outs on choppers between the pitcher and first baseman in one game. It was a thing of beauty. He has the kind of movement that, even when they make contact, he just gets easy grounders.

 

If Deduno hadn't pulled his groin in the rainstorm in the WBC final game, he would have easily been the top starter for the Twins last year. As it was, he was their top starter in the second half. Worley started the year as the designated top starter and finished with a middling stint in AAA. If it were me, I'd DFA him now to make room for Pelfrey. But they have too much invested in him with Revere to do that.

[Mike Sixel]

Yes. It doesn't make sense to complain that Pedro Hernandez is getting starts in 2013 and then complain that the Twins have too many options in 2014.

 

None of their 5/6/7 "options" are particularly good nor have they earned a full-time spot in the rotation. Let them battle in Spring Training, dump the worst of the three, and move on with the season.

 

 

For a team with limited (self imposed or not) financial resources, it does make sense, though, to question signing more and more pitching. If you now go out and sign a 4th starter...couldn't that money have been used on an every day player?

 

BTW, wasn't the argument last year that NO TEAM could ever go out and sign three free agent pitchers in 1 year and be successful?

 

I do wonder......is it his plan to undo last year? Last year he signed bad FAs (imo), and traded the present for the future (though Worley was for the present). Is it his plan this year to sign a bunch of pitching, and deal some combo of Worley, Gibson, Deduno, May, whomever for hitters?

[DJL44]

It's difficult to turn the worst starting rotation into an above average rotation in one off season.

 

It's even more difficult when you don't add anyone that is above average.

[Brock Beauchamp]

For a team with limited (self imposed or not) financial resources, it does make sense, though, to question signing more and more pitching. If you now go out and sign a 4th starter...couldn't that money have been used on an every day player?

 

BTW, wasn't the argument last year that NO TEAM could ever go out and sign three free agent pitchers in 1 year and be successful?

 

I do wonder......is it his plan to undo last year? Last year he signed bad FAs (imo), and traded the present for the future (though Worley was for the present). Is it his plan this year to sign a bunch of pitching, and deal some combo of Worley, Gibson, Deduno, May, whomever for hitters?

 

I don't think so... What I think is more likely is that Ryan deals a bullpen arm. Swarzak, Burton, Fein, and Duensing all have value. Dishing off one of them and slotting in Worley/Diamond/Deduno makes more sense than trading a starter whose value is minimal.