Article: The Case For Brett Anderson

[TheLeviathan]

If we're going to speculate we should at least speculate about the types of players Oakland looks for: young hitters with good walk rates and older, near-ready pitchers. Guys like Thorpe and Willingham just aren't going to be feasible options.

[jokin]

Thorpe is pie in the sky. He would be a high school senior right now. He may make it to Target Field by 2017 at the earliest. We still have the 2014 draft to replenish and if we go starting pitcher, it will be a higher rated prospect.

 

IMO Dombrowski, King Theo, and our very own Terry Ryan are just as capable as Beane.

 

I must have missed the part of your baseball journey when you transfigured "King Theo" from a baseball hack adirft and aimlessly leading a forever hopeless and hapless rebuild of the Cubs to a new-and-improved member of Royal Baseball Blood...And...This just in- "just as capable"- as Terry Ryan.

[cmb0252]

Thorpe is pie in the sky. He would be a high school senior right now. He may make it to Target Field by 2017 at the earliest. We still have the 2014 draft to replenish and if we go starting pitcher, it will be a higher rated prospect.

 

IMO Dombrowski, King Theo, and our very own Terry Ryan are just as capable as Beane.

 

Jim Callis mentioned if Thorpe was in the upcoming draft, which is a much better draft than the last two, we would profile as a first rounder. Lefties with his kind of stuff don't grow on trees. Obviously any prospect can fail. Same for big leaguers who can't stay healthy. Just saying don't discount him because he is young.

[Major League Ready]

I am not so sure an extension changes the value proposition here. If he signs as extension, he is going to demand the going rate (or close) or he likely just holds out for two years. Who here would opt to sign him for another 3 years at roughly $20M/yr it would take, given his inability to stay healthy.

 

His addition would take up most of the available budget (2016-18) until Mauer's contract is up is up at the end of 2018.

[howieramone1406390264]

Jim Callis mentioned if Thorpe was in the upcoming draft, which is a much better draft than the last two, we would profile as a first rounder. Lefties with his kind of stuff don't grow on trees. Obviously any prospect can fail. Same for big leaguers who can't stay healthy. Just saying don't discount him because he is young.

 

I agree. I was offering quality for quality. I would open the farm for a starting pitcher better than anyone we currently have or our SS of the future. Not much else.

[Nick Nelson]

I am not so sure an extension changes the value proposition here. If he signs as extension, he is going to demand the going rate (or close) or he likely just holds out for two years.

I think the idea is that, given his health history, Anderson might be open to extending at a somewhat discounted rate rather than waiting until after 2015 to hit the market and hope he can avoid more injuries. I'd bet that if he puts together a good, healthy season in 2014 the two sides could come to a reasonable agreement.

[Otto von Ballpark]

You do realize he has thrown 450+ career big league innings, no?

450 IP spread over 5 seasons isn't that reliable of a sample for a SP.

[InfraRen]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal9s

Source: #Rockies acquire Brett Anderson from #Athletics for Drew Pomeranz and Chris Jensen.

[Mike Sixel]

A class A pitcher, and a former top prospect who has been bad in the majors......more teams should have been willing to do that price, imo.

[twinsajsf]

Hmm . . . seems like the Twins could have beaten that offer w/out seriously impacting the farm system. Curious.

[Thrylos]

A class A pitcher, and a former top prospect who has been bad in the majors......more teams should have been willing to do that price, imo.

 

Yeah. And the Rockies get some $$$ too. Twins' equivalent (if not more, because of MLB-readiness and team control years) is something like May and Darnell. I'd do that in a heartbeat.

[nicksaviking]

Yeah. And the Rockies get some $$$ too. Twins' equivalent (if not more, because of MLB-readiness and team control years) is something like May and Darnell. I'd do that in a heartbeat.

 

And that offer from the Twins might be superior. I was interested, but I'm not upset about the Twins not getting him, I'm actually kind of relieved to see the price for Anderson wasn't very high, just as it should not have been. Beane clearly could not drum up a sucker this time.

[drivlikejehu]

Not only did the 28 other clubs pass on making a better offer (not hard to do), but the Rockies are not a very inspiring auction winner- their front office is making all kinds of weird decisions recently and has to deal with the fact free agent pitchers avoid Colorado like the plague.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeesh. The Rockies didn't have to give up much.

 

Bummer that Ryan wasn't in on that action... Could have dished off any number of guys and beat that offer hands-down.

[sconnytwinsfan]

Wow! So disappointed to hear how this went down! That truly IS a lottery ticket deal for the Rockies. Kind of a bummer for Anderson, though. Not too many lefties interested in free agent deals to start in Coors Field. Not exactly a place to build a reputation for a future payday.

 

Geez....if we hadn't DFA's him, (jokingly) we might have been able to send Liam Hendricks and Anthony Slama to Oakland and got back Anderson, $2M cash and a taco truck.

[Dman]

Wow! So disappointed to hear how this went down! That truly IS a lottery ticket deal for the Rockies. Kind of a bummer for Anderson, though. Not too many lefties interested in free agent deals to start in Coors Field. Not exactly a place to build a reputation for a future payday.

 

Geez....if we hadn't DFA's him, (jokingly) we might have been able to send Liam Hendricks and Anthony Slama to Oakland and got back Anderson, $2M cash and a taco truck.

 

Actually they still can trade Hendricks up until this Sunday. In fact it would appear the reason they DFA'd him was to see if there is any real interest in Liam as it forces any club not near the bottom to offer a trade as they can't guarantee they would get him off waivers. If no one is willing to trade for him then that says a lot about his value.

[cmb0252]

Maybe the A's just liked the two pitchers they got better than most. Getting Anderson, especially for what looks like very little, would have been great but it takes two to tango.

[JP3700]

Completely undervaluing Pomeranz. He was the #30 ranked prospect going into 2012, according to baseball america. No current Twins pitching propect has ever been ranked that high. He's just 25, a full year younger than Kyle Gibson.

 

Pretty sure Beane is betting that getting out of Colorado and going to Oakland will significantly make a difference.

[Riverbrian]

Completely undervaluing Pomeranz. He was the #30 ranked prospect going into 2012, according to baseball america. No current Twins pitching propect has ever been ranked that high. He's just 25, a full year younger than Kyle Gibson.

 

Pretty sure Beane is betting that getting out of Colorado and going to Oakland will significantly make a difference.

 

I agree

 

 

He's just a lost soul who could find his way.

[Thrylos]

Completely undervaluing Pomeranz. He was the #30 ranked prospect going into 2012, according to baseball america. No current Twins pitching propect has ever been ranked that high. He's just 25, a full year younger than Kyle Gibson.

 

Pretty sure Beane is betting that getting out of Colorado and going to Oakland will significantly make a difference.

 

I guess BA undervalues Pomeranz as well, because it has him ranked as the 13th best 25 and under player in the Rockies' system. Diamond-like performances will make you drop in value like a rock...

 

Last time I checked, a current Twins prospect is the current #1 and another the current #3.

Speaking about what BA rankings mean, here are some former Twins' top 100 rankings:

Not Current but Willie Banks was 13th in 1990, Willie Banks and Rich Garces were 15th and 16th in 1991, Pat Mahomes 25th in 1992 , Restovich (not a pitcher, but) 26th in 2000.

 

Those worked really well...

[Willihammer]

Pomeranz? Ogh, gutpunch.

[JP3700]

I guess BA undervalues Pomeranz as well, because it has him ranked as the 13th best 25 and under player in the Rockies' system.

 

 

You're missing the point. As recently as 2012 he was ranked that high, which means there's talent there. There would be plenty of examples of quality pitchers who would have never made it if you judged them based on their first 130 IP. Especially if they had pitched in Colorado.

 

Diamond-like performances will make you drop in value like a rock...

 

Diamond like performance? His K% in the majors is 18.7 vs. Diamond's 10.9. He's coming off a year where he put up a 26.2K% in AAA.

 

Last time I checked, a current Twins prospect is the current #1 and another the current #3.

 

Why are you bringing up Sano and Buxton when I was comparing pitchers? And why are you boasting their rankings, to then show evidence that top prospects bust..

 

Speaking about what BA rankings mean, here are some former Twins' top 100 rankings:

Not Current but Willie Banks was 13th in 1990, Willie Banks and Rich Garces were 15th and 16th in 1991, Pat Mahomes 25th in 1992 , Restovich (not a pitcher, but) 26th in 2000.

 

Those worked really well...

 

Some prospects bust, some make it. This is a given. You can bring up plenty of examples of both.

[Thrylos]

You're missing the point. As recently as 2012 he was ranked that high, which means there's talent there. There would be plenty of examples of quality pitchers who would have never made it if you judged them based on their first 130 IP. Especially if they had pitched in Colorado.

 

You should check his career splits before you blame Coors Field: Pomeranz is one of those Ps who did better in Coors Field 4.40 ERA/1.493 WHIP vs 6.20 ERA/1.607 WHIP away (15 GS each)

 

That's what happens with prospects... Some of them have bad seasons and drop. Like Pomeranz. Can he be good? Sure. Was he rushed? Probably. But BA rankings do not really matter than much.

[JP3700]

You should check his career splits before you blame Coors Field: Pomeranz is one of those Ps who did better in Coors Field 4.40 ERA/1.493 WHIP vs 6.20 ERA/1.607 WHIP away (15 GS each)

 

That's what happens with prospects... Some of them have bad seasons and drop. Like Pomeranz. Can he be good? Sure. Was he rushed? Probably. But BA rankings do not really matter than much.

 

I'm fully aware of his splits. There are a couple of pitchers on their current roster that pitch better at home as well. The point is, pitchers have to alter the way they pitch in Colorado, which may alter the way they pitch outside of that park.

 

I've heard of instances where pitchers get out of whack for a few starts after a start in Colorado. The conditions in Colorado are not neutral to other parks.

 

I will agree that rankings are not the end all be all, but they do give you a good gauge on talent. I'll take my chances with talent.

[Riverbrian]

I remember watching Drew pitch a long while back and I remember thinking he had a horrible delivery. Herky Jerky... He looked like a windmill out of the wind-up.

 

I saw him pitch again in September and he had stopped using the wind-up all together.

 

He was throwing from the stretch exclusively... Real quiet body and he was fairly dominant out of the pen in that game.

 

He may have fixed something. Beane at the very least... Has a lefty for his pen and he might have a decent replacement starter.

 

And he shaved some cash from the books and I think that was the most important accomplishment for Oakland.

[cmb0252]

I guess BA undervalues Pomeranz as well, because it has him ranked as the 13th best 25 and under player in the Rockies' system. Diamond-like performances will make you drop in value like a rock...

 

Last time I checked, a current Twins prospect is the current #1 and another the current #3.

Speaking about what BA rankings mean, here are some former Twins' top 100 rankings:

Not Current but Willie Banks was 13th in 1990, Willie Banks and Rich Garces were 15th and 16th in 1991, Pat Mahomes 25th in 1992 , Restovich (not a pitcher, but) 26th in 2000.

 

Those worked really well...

 

While these didn't work out there are 100s that did. Scouting prospects is a lot harder than saying "hey, that Cano guy has been good with the Yankees." I'm not saying BA is the end all be all of prospects, it isn't, but they do a heck of a job. Pointing to failures, which you are going to happen more often than not, is unfair.

 

Pomeranz still has solid stuff and could be a good change of venue type guy.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Pomeranz may turn out to be good, but mainly I am disappointed the Twins didn't make this trade happen. Would have been very optimistic at Anderson's upside.

[halfchest]

Interesting, the most comparable guy we have to Pomeranz is probably Gibson in that they're once highly touted prospects who haven't quite figured it out. Pomeranz was probably more highly touted and has had a longer amount of time to fail at the big league level and he doesn't have Tommy John to blame for being set back like Gibson but yah. I wouldn't have been a fan of dealing Gibson mostly due to his value being low and I expect it to be much higher after 2013. Not because he's a surefire ace but I expect him to be solid at the Major League level and possibly a #2 type if he can put it all together.

 

I'm curious what others think would have been a comparable trade for Brett. I bet Beane wanted a pitcher with some upside. Would he have gone for one of our guys from A ball or lower that has upside? then throw in another piece to complete it?

 

I think Beane did well here, Pomeranz has a lot of potential and could be a steal. Same goes for Brett Anderson. It's all a gamble though. If Beane keeps him and he has a good injury free first half then he could probably get a nice group of prospects at the deadline. However, if he keeps him and he gets injured or pitches poorly, he's probably not worth much of anything at the deadline. I like this move for both teams. Wish the Twins could have gotten him but glad we didn't overpay either. Like I said There's a legitimate chance that Brett Anderson could be worth a pile of gold or a pile of **** come July. A lot rides on his early season performance/health.

[Dilligaf69]

We'll never know if an offer was made, I'm guessing TR made some sort of run at BA but Ol Billy boy thought the Rockies had the best offer...oh well we move on.

[halfchest]

As a continuance to my last post same thing goes for Pomeranz. If he comes out for the Rockies and looks like he as put it together first half all that hype from him being a top prospect comes right back and his value shoots up quick. However, if he has a bad first half he might not net much of anything in a trade. Neither guy has a long track record of MLB success and/or health to live on. Their futures depend a lot on this next season both for themselves and for their now new teams.