Hughes or Arroyo?

[jcphitman]

It looks like from either a bogus or misinformed Twitter account that the fake rumor of Hughes being close to the Twins on a 2 year deal was squashed today quickly. Darren Wolfson said it was much more realistic Hughes would sign a 1 year make good deal vs. 2 years. Doogie also said if Hughes was offered Nolasco money for 3-4 years, he'd take it.

 

It also looks like from tweets that the Twins are still in on Arroyo but the Mets and a few other teams are jumping in too.

 

My apologies for no links as I'm typing on my phone and felt like getting a discussion topic started.

 

From what I read, the Twins want to buy 400 innings for next year. 200 are bought with Nolasco. It seems Arroyo might be more durable than Hughes for 200 next year. However, Hughes is ten years younger and has more upside.

 

What would you do and why? Arroyo is durable, but I'd go for Hughes. I even somewhat hope the Twins are a crazy team that offers him 3 years at Nolasco money (average the same per year ... just less years) so we can buy out his 20's and see what happens?

 

What are your preferences? Which SP and for how long?

 

Doesn't it feel great we can discuss FA like this and one of these players will most likely happen AFTER we made a big acquisition already? I love it!

[mnfireman]

Throw the money at Garza and maybe take a Kazmir for a test ride for a year.

[gunnarthor]

Keeping in mind that I don't know anything, I'd go for Hughes on a 4 yr deal. I think he's a good pitcher in TF and he's young enough that he'd still be good when the next wave needs him to be. Now, I could be wrong so I'm not going to be upset if he signs a one year make good deal in an NL park but he was probably my favorite offseason target.

[mudcat14]

Except for Garza, I wouldn't go longer than two years or more than $10m/season on ANY of the remaining FA targets the Twins are reported to have an interest in. We're not getting Jimenez or E. Santana and none of the others warrant that kind of commitment. It may make more sense to let the dust clear and pursue whoever is left after the Winter Meetings.

[jorgenswest]

Is neither a choice?

 

I certainly don't want the Twins to sign Arroyo for the little time he has left as an effective pitcher. Steamer projects him with less WAR than Deduno (a pitcher without options the a Twins might have to DFA).

 

Hughes is young but projects similarly to the guys the three Twin starters out of option. Is it wise to give him a short contract while DFAing similar pitchers with longer service time?

 

Sign big or sign no one.

[Oxtung]

I would opt for neither. The Twins aren't lacking in back of the rotation options. We are missing front line options. Either sign someone long term with a history of being a good pitcher, sign someone short term with a history of being a good pitcher but question marks or pass altogether. Run Deduno, Worley, Albers, Hendriks out there instead and bring up Meyer, May, Darnell and anyone else who takes a step forward during the season.

 

The worst thing we could do is to sign another mediocre pitcher to a 3+ year deal. That helps the present a small amount but hinders the future because you've now obligated innings to said pitcher in 2015-16. A second #4 starter in 2016 isn't going to push the Twins into the playoffs. On the other hand, if he prevents the Twins from singing or trading for a #1/2 starter...

[ND-Fan]

Just sign another quality pitcher and I think Hughes could be that pitcher he's young and will pitch better out of Yankee stadium. The Twins top of line pitchers are coming up through the minors and should be here with other prospects when they arrive and develop. The Twins need pitching now to compete and show some improvement. They can't go another season of 90 to 100 losses and keep fan support and teach this young group how to win. The Twins have shown that they have nothing that's ready for major leagues in next year or two or they would have been here. Also some veteran experience would help some of young kids pitching now.

[howieramone1406390264]

Either one is fine with me. It doesn't appear 1's and 2's are going to start growing on trees anytime soon. We start 2015 with Nolasco a 3, Meyer 2-3, Gibson 3-4. Ryan has 15 months, a great deal of gold, and many fine prospects to deal. I think either Arroyo or Hughes puts us ahead of the game.

[DocBauer]

I like Arroyo a lot for what he'd bring to the table for a year or two. But I want to think longer term than that.

 

Garza is my choice. But Hughes is near my top. One year deal is ok. Especially with even more money off the books next year, we could not only re-sign him, but possibly during the season. I'd also be good with a 3 year deal if he wants. I am totally intrigued by his overall talent, a fresh start, and pitching in TF and almost anywhere but NY.

[old nurse]

duplicate, sort of. screwed up the edit somehow

[old nurse]

Hughes would be less of a commitment than Arroyo. Maybe more of an upside, maybe not. The question probably should be Kazmir versus Hughes. The best mid tier pitcher option might be Kazmir based on past production. Kazmir could regress rather than progress. Hughes on the other hand has a chance for progression. He also fits the team profile for having a mental block playing in Yankee Stadium. For either of them to get the 4/50+ contract it would take a couple years of solid production. , so I think either could be had for a 2 year contract and no more.

[h2oface]

Sigh..... Phil Hughes. I was so hoping that Nolasco, Huhges, Arroyo, and Ervin Santana would be signed by other teams so Ryan would have to go after Kazmir or Jimenez or Garza or even Tanaka. Innings eaters...... 4 to 5 ERA pitchers that always give you a better chance to lose than win. I just can't see the Gardenhire/Anderson team making any pitcher better, even if it is Target Field. Yes, Ryan is spending money, money he should have been spending the last 2 years as well, but he is still in the mode of pitchers that don't miss bats and give up home runs. Every player can have a special year and teams can come from last to first. It doesn't make me happy, but it is what I expected. I just don't work very hard anymore to talk myself into justifying league average pitchers into being something they aren't.

 

[Rosterman]

Looks like we got Hughes! 3 years $24 million!

[cmathewson]

It's Hughes. 3-year deal, announced tonight by several sources, including Phil miller:

 

Phil Miller ‏@MillerStrib 27m Philip Hughes has agreed to 3-year, $24 million contract with the Twins, @LaVelleNeal reports.

 

[Oxtung]

Either one is fine with me. It doesn't appear 1's and 2's are going to start growing on trees anytime soon. We start 2015 with Nolasco a 3, Meyer 2-3, Gibson 3-4. Ryan has 15 months, a great deal of gold, and many fine prospects to deal. I think either Arroyo or Hughes puts us ahead of the game.

 

Let's say that your 2015 predictions turn out to be true, that's the foundation of a pretty good, but not great, rotation. My question is how does adding Arroyo or Hughes, at best #3 pitchers but more likely #4's, help get the Twins to the playoffs? What that rotation is really missing is 2 front of the rotation starters.

[DocBauer]

Think the Hughes signing is great, even if it based somewhat on potential. 20M spent, and another 15 to 18M that should still be available on cost cuts and 52% of the new 25M in TV revenue available

[nicksaviking]

Darren Wolfson said it was much more realistic Hughes would sign a 1 year make good deal vs. 2 years.

 

I like Doogie, but he's wiffed twice now. He also said the Twins weren't close to a deal with Nolasco hours before one was announced.

[Jdosen]

What that rotation is really missing is 2 front of the rotation starters.

Alex Meyer is on his way. And as for the second one--Kohl Stewart in 2016? Nolasco is a nice reliable option. Perhaps Gibson in a couple of years is another one as well. In reality, I don't think we will compete in '14, but will make division runs in '15, '16. If we want to make a run at a pennant, a trade for another front of the rotation stalwart is an option as well. I really like the foundation that has been laid in the past few days though.

[Oxtung]

Alex Meyer is on his way. And as for the second one--Kohl Stewart in 2016? Nolasco is a nice reliable option. Perhaps Gibson in a couple of years is another one as well. In reality, I don't think we will compete in '14, but will make division runs in '15, '16. If we want to make a run at a pennant, a trade for another front of the rotation stalwart is an option as well. I really like the foundation that has been laid in the past few days though.

 

Well the Twins will need 3 pitchers better than Nolasco. Meyer and Gibson will hopefully fill one of those and if we're very lucky, two. That still leaves a big void. Stewart won't be ready until 2017 at the earliest (that's making the big assumption that he pans out as a front of the rotation starter in the first place). Berrios is possible in 2016, but again that's assuming he pans out to his potential. So, if you want to "make a run in '15 and '16" you'll need to find 1 or 2 more really good pitchers from somewhere.