It's not delivery, its Deduno...

[Oxtung]

It is true that his k/9 rate went down but until late in the year he produced a lot of very weakly hit GBs. However, it did not translate in terms of BABIP. That might be somewhat a product of his problems later in the season. His BABIP ended up the same as Liriano and Garza.

 

K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB GB% HR/FB ERA

Garza --- 7.88 2.43 1.16 .290 73.4% 38.6% 11.6% 3.82

Liriano --- 9.11 3.52 0.50 .290 77.6% 50.5% 8.3 % 3.02

Deduno -- 5.58 3.42 0.58 .291 73.7% 59.7 % 10.3 % 3.83

 

He had a good k/9 rate in AAA with the Twins. Now that he has some big league experience, it would not be unreasonable to believe he could increase that K/9 rate a little and tighten up the walk rate.

 

At 30 years old he is a back of the rotation starter. If that is what everyone is excited about then no problem. Maybe we're just arguing the semantics of the word "excited." When I think of who I'm excited about it only refers to better than average pitchers. Maybe that is the confusion here.

 

If the Twins want Deduno, Worley and Hendriks to fight it out for that #5 starter role I have no problem with that.

[jorgenswest]

As a starter with the Twins his SIERA in 2012 was 5.04 and in 2013 4.13. Career average, including his RP stints is 4.47.

 

Here is the SIERA table from here:

 

[TABLE=width: 200, align: center]

[TR=bgcolor: #edf1f3]

[TH=align: center]Rating[/TH]

[TH=align: center]SIERA[/TH]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #ffffff]

[TD=align: center]Excellent[/TD]

[TD=align: center]2.90[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #ffffff]

[TD=align: center]Great[/TD]

[TD=align: center]3.25[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #ffffff]

[TD=align: center]Above Average[/TD]

[TD=align: center]3.75[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #ffffff]

[TD=align: center]Average[/TD]

[TD=align: center]3.90[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #ffffff]

[TD=align: center]Below Average[/TD]

[TD=align: center]4.20[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #ffffff]

[TD=align: center]Poor[/TD]

[TD=align: center]4.50[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #ffffff]

[TD=align: center]Awful[/TD]

[TD=align: center]5.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

So his best season was up to below average, career average is at the poor level and the season before he was awful. If that does not scream replacement level, I don't know what does...

 

FIP, tRA, xFIP all saying the same story.

 

Not that he cannot be a 5th starter in the majors. That's replacement level in most places. My point is that Worley is likely at least at that level, has had success and has still to enter his prime, so he is better suited than Deduno for that spot.

 

And, yes, he is fun to watch pitching. Nobody denies that. Juan Morillo was fun to watch too...

 

Thanks for the perspective. Just a real question. Wouldn't the SIERA table change for every season? If so, I am not sure how you would put multiple years or career numbers in the same table. In any case, his numbers aren't good whatever the classification.

 

If the Twins sign one more starter, they will likely need to DFA one or two of Deduno, Worley and Diamond. Given his age, Deduno better have a strong healthy spring.

 

Deduno has some upside and service time. If another signing pushes him out, it had better be for a top of the rotation guy like Garza or younger guy with upside left like Hughes.

[Thrylos]

Wouldn't the SIERA table change for every season? If so, I am not sure how you would put multiple years or career numbers in the same table. In any case, his numbers aren't good whatever the classification.

 

Yes it does change every year and it is an empirical distribution; lots like saying an ERA under 2 is amazing and and ERA over 6 is horrible. ERA distribution changes every year as well...

 

The long answer about SIERA (by Matt Swartz who invented that measurement) starts here, goes through here and here and here and ends here, if you want some fun reading in a holiday weekend and interested in the differences between SIERA, ERA and xFIP to measure pitching performance.

[Marta Shearing]

Most people don't consider most people to be a legitimate reference source.

WAR is about the most ridiculous stat ever invented. People who reference it are embarrassing themselves. Deduno is a legitimate back of the rotation starter. I dont need some ridiculous stat telling me he's not.

[UCLA_YANKEE_COLA]

WAR is about the most ridiculous stat ever invented. People who reference it are embarrassing themselves. Deduno is a legitimate back of the rotation starter. I dont need some ridiculous stat telling me he's not.

 

You can't just call it ridiculous and the people that reference it "embarrassing" without being able to explain what it is and why you don't like it. So, what is WAR and why don't you like it? For instance, I don't like RBI or Batting Average with RISP as a stat. I know exactly what both of them are and exactly why I don't like them. RBI are a team stat and are mostly useless in terms of talent evaluation (rather a nod to opportunity). BAwRISP is not an innate skill and typically has too small of a sample size to be meaningful. See, I both understood and was able to communicate what I don't like about them.

 

So now it's your turn! First, explain what WAR is and then explain what you don't like about it or what you find embarrassing or ridiculous. (And no, saying "well I can just SEE that Mike Trout is worse than Miguel Cabrera" doesn't count. Actual evidence please.)

[DaveW]

Deduno doesn't have top of the rotation type stuff, nor is he as bad as thrylos is trying to claim.

 

He is a #5 guy at this point, no more, no less. He could be an above average #5 or he could pitch himself out of a job. It's that simple.

[Craig Arko]

What I admire most about Deduno is the attitude he brings to the mound. This is clearly a man who loves to win and hates to lose. It would be nice to see the others pitch with this kind of fire.

[Brandon]

As a starter with the Twins his SIERA in 2012 was 5.04 and in 2013 4.13. Career average, including his RP stints is 4.47.

 

Here is the SIERA table from here:

 

[TABLE=width: 200, align: center]

[TR=bgcolor: #EDF1F3]

[TH=align: center]Rating

[/TH]

[TH=align: center]SIERA

[/TH]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: center]Excellent

[/TD]

[TD=align: center]2.90

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: center]Great

[/TD]

[TD=align: center]3.25

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: center]Above Average

[/TD]

[TD=align: center]3.75

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: center]Average

[/TD]

[TD=align: center]3.90

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: center]Below Average

[/TD]

[TD=align: center]4.20

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: center]Poor

[/TD]

[TD=align: center]4.50

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: center]Awful

[/TD]

[TD=align: center]5.00

[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

So his best season was up to below average, career average is at the poor level and the season before he was awful. If that does not scream replacement level, I don't know what does...

 

FIP, tRA, xFIP all saying the same story.

 

Not that he cannot be a 5th starter in the majors. That's replacement level in most places. My point is that Worley is likely at least at that level, has had success and has still to enter his prime, so he is better suited than Deduno for that spot.

 

And, yes, he is fun to watch pitching. Nobody denies that. Juan Morillo was fun to watch too...

 

Before his last 3 starts Deduno had a 3.18 ERA or Great rating as you put it. He can be a great 4th/5th starter who could win 12-15 games at the back of the rotation at 500k next year. The key is the health of his shoulder. He has the Stuff of an ace and the control of a AA pitcher. If he controls what he throws just enough he will be successful.

[Riverbrian]

Alright... let me throw this out:

 

Please give me a single objective and measurable criterium (or any piece of data you like, but it has to be objective and measurable) that Deduno is above replacement level in his prime (now and for the last 2 seasons)

 

Thank you.

 

I'm gonna do the opposite... I'm gonna point out a stat that sucks: BB/9

 

That's it.

 

The rest of his stats from 2009 pitching in Colorado Springs to 2013 pitching in Minnesota are decent. Quite a few them look even better than decent when you consider what the BB/9 did to them.

 

Yet... In the end... It doesn't matter to me at all.

 

Because... I don't care what kind of twisted combination of data is used to bring him down.

 

I just don't understand how anyone could WATCH him pitch last year and say to themselves... Jeez... I can't wait until they get this guy off the roster.

 

In his 13 starts before we started reading reports of suspected dead arm that turned into a shoulder issue. In those 13 starts... He gave the Twins a legit chance to win 10 of those 13 starts and we did indeed win 8 of them.

 

Will he be shoulder healthy in 2014... I don't know... Will he regress... Maybe... Will he progress... Maybe... Will he stay the same... Maybe...

 

But until his shoulder issues last year... He lowered his walk rate significantly and he was a dang fine pitcher.

 

The Twins can sign Nolasco, Hughes, Kazmir and Garza and depending on Deduno's health..

 

They would still be idiots to throw him away after his 2013 performance. Especially if they threw him away because they were not happy with his walk totals in 2012.

[Riverbrian]

Deduno doesn't have top of the rotation type stuff, nor is he as bad as thrylos is trying to claim.

 

He is a #5 guy at this point, no more, no less. He could be an above average #5 or he could pitch himself out of a job. It's that simple.

 

While I agree with the overall complete context of your statement. I do disagree with the first sentence.

 

Stuff? Sam Deduno has Stuff coming out of his ears. Top of the rotation stuff without a doubt.

 

What's not coming out of his ears... What remains in between his ears... is my only question about him and he seemed to have had made great progress on that last year.

[bird]

What I admire most about Deduno is the attitude he brings to the mound. This is clearly a man who loves to win and hates to lose. It would be nice to see the others pitch with this kind of fire.

 

Please provide objective, measurable evidence of this attitude.

 

Kidding. But I agree, he's fun to watch, partly because he's fiery. In contrast, Pelfry is not fun to watch. We don't need a bunch of statistics to see that, when he's on a roll, Deduno is a great #5 guy. So, give me Nolasco, Gibson, Hughes (or equivilent), and Correia in front of him and a Rochester rotation of capable (sort of) backup options like Diamond, Worley, Hendriks, Albers, Johnson, Meyer, May, Wimmers....

[stringer bell]

I am a bit fearful of a rather major downturn for Deduno, mostly as a result of the surgery this offseason. Both Worley and Diamond had "minor" surgery and weren't sharp when they returned to the mound. What made Deduno effective was outstanding movement on his pitches. I wonder if he might not lose just a little movement and become much more hittable. I don't think he'll ever have the sharp command that most of pitch to contact back end guys have when they are "on".

[Trevor0333]

Deduno is one of those rare players who defies conventional statistics.

 

He has always had so much sink & movement on his pitches his control has been terrible walking an extreme amount of batters. He made up for some of that with his out worldly ground ball rates from so much downward movement.

 

Last year he pitched to contact more which helped cut his walk rate in half. The WBC really helped his confidence too.

[Halsey Hall]

So, give me Nolasco, Gibson, Hughes (or equivilent), and Correia in front of him and a Rochester rotation of capable (sort of) backup options like Diamond, Worley, Hendriks, Albers, Johnson, Meyer, May, Wimmers....

 

Seems to me some posters here are getting way ahead of themselves giving Gibson a spot in the rotation. He's got plenty of competition, and I'd rate him a long shot.

[big dog]

What I admire most about Deduno is the attitude he brings to the mound. This is clearly a man who loves to win and hates to lose. It would be nice to see the others pitch with this kind of fire.

 

Agreed, and one of the things I like best about him is that he gets so excited when his teammates make a good play or a reliever bails him out. I think he's a guy who makes the people around him better. Sure, I'd love to have someone obviously better than him, but the tie goes to Deduno for me.

[DocBauer]

A really great and really fun post! And lots of well delivered thought and opinions to boot!

 

Some thoughts and opinions overall.

 

I think the argument could be made that Deduno indeed has early rotation "stuff" even if not as a #1. But as was pointed out in this thread, his walk rates always held him back previously. And there has always been a general lack of overall consistency that has held him back some. Probably because his stuff is just electric to be at the top of a rotation. A drop in K rate this year and drop in total velocity may have been 2-fold due to some lingering shoulder issues coming off the classic, but Anderson may have convinced him also that throwing a little softer, with great movement and better control was to his benefit. And that isn't rocket science, that is the art of pitching.

 

And along with that, can we begin to bury this "pitch to contact" bugaboo? Anderson himself has stated before that the term doesn't mean giving the hitter something to stroke, it's about being in and around the zone so you don't walk people. Movement on pitches in and around the strike zone is to get strikes, foul ball strikes, poorly hit balls, and grounders. Once again, we are talking about the art of pitching.

 

Neither Anderson or any previous pitching coach has taught or told his pitchers to serve up hitable strikes.

 

Deduno is fun to watch. Prior to his late season injury, he was not only the Twins best pitcher, he was just a good pitcher period. He would not be the first pitcher to either lose a little velocity, or learn to take something off the ball, to gain better control and achieve better results.

 

Healthy, and what he has learned, he is at worst a very capable and occasionally very good pitcher at the #5 spot. And if what we saw this year wasn't a mirage, I could see him as more than that for sure. I just think consistency would hold him back from being a top of the rotation arm. Hey, I'd love for him to prove me wrong! I completely agree he could push Correia down the chain to #4. How great would that be?

[DocBauer]

As a side note, since he has been brought up here, Gibson has a lot to prove. But I am in no way down on the young man! He was a very talented fast riser who fell to injury. By all accounts, he returned healthy and strong with velocity as good as before the injury. In fact, I'd say looking at what he did at AAA last season, especially after the first month or so when he found greater feel and consistency, was pretty outstanding and fills me with great hope. We all know it takes time for any successful TJ surgery patient to find his comfort level and groove.

 

Nolasco, Hughes or whoever, Deduno-Correia, and Gibson brought along a little more slowly as the #5 wouldn't be a bad thing. It would still be the best rotation in years. And if Gibson would need a little time in AAA just to keep on a regular schedule to begin the year, I don't know that any of us should be disappointed.

[Thrylos]

a Rochester rotation of capable (sort of) backup options like Diamond, Worley, Hendriks, Albers, Johnson, Meyer, May, Wimmers....

 

So you really think that Diamond and Worley will pass through waivers etc to pitch at Rochester? They are out of options.

 

Good luck.

[IdahoPilgrim]

I'm not going to get all into stats because that's not my thing (not opposed to it, just don't spend that much time with it), but from what I remember of last season, up to the point where his arm started going, he usually gave the Twins a chance to win when he took the mound. He kept the game close. Not front of the rotation, to be sure, but still worthy of being in the rotation.

 

Assuming we don't pick up 3 more starters in FA/trade, Deduno starts ST with the assumption he'll be in the rotation come April. Whether he retains that through ST or somebody (Gibson, Worley, etc) takes it from him is unknown, but the spot is currently his, IMO.

[howeda7]

Yes, his ERA was below 3.5 until toward the end of the season when the injury was becoming more problematic. I just don't get how little credit he gets. He was the only SP I was excited to watch last year. I wached Gibson hoping to see him emerge but that did not go so well. Deduno was the most entertaining for me.

 

This. He gave us a legit chance to win most starts, which was a huge feat in that rotation. He also came through in some big spots (ending a the horrific losing streak at Yankee Stadium for example)

[whydidnt]

I'm not disputing that Deduno gave the Twins a chance to win last year, at all. What is still up for debate is whether that run he had last year is sustainable. I'm all for giving him a shot and hoping he's the exception and his movement is "that good" and it makes up for the low K/9 high BB/9 rate. However the excitement about a 30 year old with 1/2 a good season is a bit much. As i said in the previous post, the excitement is similar to what we saw about Diamond last year...and you could probably add guys like Blackburn in previous years.

 

He may be the exception, but there just isn't enough in his background to count on him as locked in starter in 2014.

 

And I'm willing to put the "pitch to contact" stuff to rest as soon as we see guys that start performing better the longer they are here, and when I start seeing guys k/9 rates go up instead of down while they are here. We just don't have a track record of developing starting pitchers in this organization. I'll let the results prove my point over the guy who's butt is on the line's statement about controlling the strike zone, etc...

[OldTwinky]

I like Deduno. I don't think this shoulder problem is done though. I suspect he'll spend a lot of time on the DL this year.

[Reider]

I like Deduno. I don't think this shoulder problem is done though. I suspect he'll spend a lot of time on the DL this year.

If that is the case, do you think the Twins should sign one more starting pitcher?

[Badsmerf]

Wow. I don't post for a month and all the sudden everyone thinks Deduno is a real MLB pitcher? Some projecting him to be one of the best in the rotation for 2014? I just might completely stop posting until spring.

[Trevor0333]

Wow. I don't post for a month and all the sudden everyone thinks Deduno is a real MLB pitcher? Some projecting him to be one of the best in the rotation for 2014? I just might completely stop posting until spring.

 

 

I still stand by my statement that Deduno will be the best starting pitcher on the staff this year.

[cmathewson]

As long as he is healthy, he should be in the rotation. If he gets hurt again, give someone else a chance. If he stays healthy and Gibson or someone else is dominating in AAA, make room for him by trading someone else. Looking at you, Correia.

[tobi0040]

It is true that his k/9 rate went down but until late in the year he produced a lot of very weakly hit GBs. However, it did not translate in terms of BABIP. That might be somewhat a product of his problems later in the season. His BABIP ended up the same as Liriano and Garza.

 

K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB GB% HR/FB ERA

Garza --- 7.88 2.43 1.16 .290 73.4% 38.6% 11.6% 3.82

Liriano --- 9.11 3.52 0.50 .290 77.6% 50.5% 8.3 % 3.02

Deduno -- 5.58 3.42 0.58 .291 73.7% 59.7 % 10.3 % 3.83

 

He had a good k/9 rate in AAA with the Twins. Now that he has some big league experience, it would not be unreasonable to believe he could increase that K/9 rate a little and tighten up the walk rate.

 

I would go a step farther than the posts on here. His 4.44 ERA over 79 IP in 2012 was also above replacement player. I believe replacement player is definted as a AA replacement. I have a hard time believing the average AA replacement can come up here and average a quality start.

 

True, his K rate is average at best. But 18 HR in 193 IP (.83/9) suggests hitters have a tough time squaring him up due to the movement of his pitches. That may be why everyone thinks he is ripe for regression due to a low opposing BABIP.

[longstrangetrip]

I'm a huge Deduno supporter and hope that he can hold off Diamond for the 5th spot. His results this spring and last season have clearly been better than Scott's, but Diamond wins if Gardy/Anderson decide they need a lefty in the rotation.

 

I had the pleasure of seeing Sam live last season at the Big A, and I have never seen so many weak rollers back to the mound. Or so many hitters walking back to the dugout shaking their heads. The funky late movement on his ball makes it almost impossible to square up against him when he is on.

 

Deduno is unusual among major league pitchers. Most pitchers live on the corners, and their catchers usually set up on the outside or inside corner. This approach didn't work with Sammy, and resulted in way too many walks. I have noticed that his catcher now generally sets up right down the middle, and allows the inherent movement to wreak its havoc. This has resulted in a reduced K rate, but also a reduced BB rate, and much improved results.

 

I don't find it preposterous to say Deduno could be our most effective starter this year

[tobi0040]

I'm a huge Deduno supporter and hope that he can hold off Diamond for the 5th spot. His results this spring and last season have clearly been better than Scott's, but Diamond wins if Gardy/Anderson decide they need a lefty in the rotation.

 

I had the pleasure of seeing Sam live last season at the Big A, and I have never seen so many weak rollers back to the mound. Or so many hitters walking back to the dugout shaking their heads. The funky late movement on his ball makes it almost impossible to square up against him when he is on.

 

Deduno is unusual among major league pitchers. Most pitchers live on the corners, and their catchers usually set up on the outside or inside corner. This approach didn't work with Sammy, and resulted in way too many walks. I have noticed that his catcher now generally sets up right down the middle, and allows the inherent movement to wreak its havoc. This has resulted in a reduced K rate, but also a reduced BB rate, and much improved results.

 

I don't find it preposterous to say Deduno could be our most effective starter this year

 

The logic of we need a lefty is silly. The decision should come down to, during the innings allocated to Diamond or Deduno, who will pitch better? That answer is clear.

[ashbury]

The logic of we need a lefty is silly. The decision should come down to, during the innings allocated to Diamond or Deduno, who will pitch better? That answer is clear.

 

It's the old saying. "We don't need lefty pitchers. We need pitchers that can get the lefties out."