Homer Bailey

[Mike Sixel]

Are you willing to roll the dice on Rosario coming back next year, and trade Dozier + Gibson or May for him?

[DaveW]

Are you willing to roll the dice on Rosario coming back next year, and trade Dozier + Gibson or May for him?

 

In a heartbeat.

 

Dozier+Gibson+Plouffe maybe gets em to bite?

 

As far as "center pieces go" I would prefer the following to give up:

1. Perkins

2. Dozier

3. Rosario

[DaveW]

I don't think the Twins would be able to do this without Arcia in the offer. Rosario's value took a hit with the suspension, so he can't be a centerpiece.

 

You also have to take into account that this is a team in the mode to win now, so your offer has to be built around instant or very close contributors. I like Bailey, but I'm not sure what it'd take to get him from the Twins is a pill you'll want to swallow.

It depends...Rosario is still a top 60 or so prospect and his value isn't going to take a massive hit. He wasn't going to start out in MLB this year anyways.

 

If they are planning on resigning Choo (which it sounds like they want to make a run at him if they can shed Bailey and Phillips contracts) then they don't need Arcia at all with Hamilton in CF and Bruce in RF.

 

As far as immediate help, Dozier or Perkins could provide that.

[RedBull34]

I also like Bailey. I think he would be better then Garza. But on the other hand Wahl makes a good point. Let's just lock up Garza and pick up Bailey next year in FA if available.

[nicksaviking]

Well initial reports were that Bailey was intent on hitting the open market so I'm not trading anything of value for one year of a guy in another likely bad season.

 

But if we are playing the hypothetical game, if the Twins take on the the Phillips salary, could they then trade Dozier as a replacement and give up lesser prospects? Or does Phillips still have added value despite the decline and the contract?

[Willihammer]

I don't think the Twins would be able to do this without Arcia in the offer.

 

I doubt that. Team control is the mitigating factor with bailey.

 

3 years of Perkins for 1 of Bailey straight up should be enough to get it done really

[iTwins]

I'd want to know Bailey is keen to signing an extension before making any deal. If he's willing to avoid free agency, then yes - I'm all in.

 

I'd try to center a package around Perkins / Dozier / Plouffe - with some mid-level prospects (Harrison for example) tossed in to sweeten the pot. I'm a big Berrios fan and am not big on trading Rosario. I know it's hard to acquire a pitcher like Bailey without giving SOMETHING up, but I'd fight like heck to keep our top 10 prospects out of this deal.

[DaveW]

Well initial reports were that Bailey was intent on hitting the open market so I'm not trading anything of value for one year of a guy in another likely bad season.

 

 

Every player in a contract year are intent on hitting the open market....until they are offered an extension that makes sense. Again, if the Twins trade for him and offer him 6/95 (basically tearing up this years 4 mil in arb contract he would be owed) Do you really think he wouldn't listen/seriously consider? (The extension more or less would mirror the Sanchez contract)

[halfchest]

I like the idea of seeing what taking on Phillips contract does to a deal. Does us taking on that contract make them willing to accept a lesser package of prospects? Not sure what it would take but just a couple thoughts

 

This is why it sucks that Rosario was suspended. He would be such a nice major league ready prospect that is somewhat expendable if you count on Dozier to continue to play well.

 

I wouldn't have a problem dealing Gibson except I feel like we'd be selling low. If they are still viewing him as a top 50 prospect who just struggled in his first taste of the majors then yes, I'd consider it.

 

It's tough to deal anyone really because we can potentially upgrade at every single position it seems like. Tough to deal Arcia because we dont' have a lot of power corner outfielders in the pipeline. obviously Sano,Buxton, Meyer are off the table. Gibson's value is low, Rosario suspended, Pinto is our only major league ready catcher who has starting potential.

 

Last, no way you can get this deal done unless Bailey signs an extension. We don't need Bailey for this year, we need him for 2015 and beyond. If we can get him for one good prospect (Rosario, Arcia, Pinto) and maybe some filler and he signs a reasonable extension. It might be worth it. If he has another good year and hits free agency he could be commanding 25 million plus a year.

[nicksaviking]

Every player in a contract year are intent on hitting the open market....until they are offered an extension that makes sense. Again, if the Twins trade for him and offer him 6/95 (basically tearing up this years 4 mil in arb contract he would be owed) Do you really think he wouldn't listen/seriously consider? (The extension more or less would mirror the Sanchez contract)

 

That would still require the Twins taking a huge leap of faith that Bailey doesn't just tell the Twins to screw off because he has a different destination in mind and it would also require Ryan making an unprescedented offer that Bailey knows he can't beat later. Free agents have done the first to the Twins many times and Ryan has done the later never.

 

It would be foolish to assume the Twins can and will extend him. A trade shouldn't happen unless the assumption become an almost certain fact.

[TheLeviathan]

I doubt that. Team control is the mitigating factor with bailey.

 

3 years of Perkins for 1 of Bailey straight up should be enough to get it done really

 

Arcia has team control too. More of it, in fact. So I'm not sure how that's a difference maker.

 

Also, why exactly is this team desperate for bullpen? I haven't read any reports to indicate that and they haven't made any definitive call on Chapman yet. I think it's presumptive to think they're looking for bullpen given their depth there already.

 

Let's also stop pretending Dozier is a huge trade chip. He had an encouraging year last year, but it was also driven by a relatively new aspect to his game - power. He typically was a get-on-base type of hitter but last year his OPS was driven more by the slug then the OBP. Realistically, no one is going to consider him a prime trade chip until he establishes that it wasn't a fluke. We're doing something very common here - overvaluing our own player's trade value. (Hell, the very fact that Plouffe was mentioned is ridiculous)

 

Bailey isn't going to be cheap and I highly doubt we'll like what would have to be given up from our roster.

[Willihammer]

Interesting. MLBTR says Bailey's agent is Excel and BB -ref says its Hendricks Sports. Lot of Hendricks clients did test FA - Cuddyer, Guthrie, Jeter, Kershaw, Pettitte, and Greinke. Alex Gordon is one who signed a team extension but there aren't many others that I can tell.

 

Hendricks looks like a smaller outfit with a lot of lower profile guys. The biggest name is probably Huston Street who tested FA too although he may have just wanted to get out of Denver.

[Celebrity Weddings!]

Bailey isn't going to be cheap and I highly doubt we'll like what would have to be given up from our roster.

 

I agree with this. I think a team in a different situation (maybe the Twins after end of 2014 - when Bailey himself wont be a trade option) that has a young core and smells some blood in the divisional water would find acquiring a guy with one year left to free agency a useful addition for the valuable experience of providing genuine contention to that core.

 

But I don't think that describes the winter-of-2013 Twins. If Bailey is the sort of player that the front office would feel comfortable acquiring for four years, they should wait until he hits free agency next winter and is available for the cost of only money.

[halfchest]

Let's also stop pretending Dozier is a huge trade chip. He had an encouraging year last year, but it was also driven by a relatively new aspect to his game - power. He typically was a get-on-base type of hitter but last year his OPS was driven more by the slug then the OBP. Realistically, no one is going to consider him a prime trade chip until he establishes that it wasn't a fluke. We're doing something very common here - overvaluing our own player's trade value. (Hell, the very fact that Plouffe was mentioned is ridiculous)

 

Bailey isn't going to be cheap and I highly doubt we'll like what would have to be given up from our roster.

 

Agreed, It's either going to take one of our better major league ready/close to ML ready like Pinto/Rosario/Hicks/Arcia or a couple of our high upside low level guys like Thorpe/Berrios, etc. Maybe some combination. I like the idea of getting Bailey, really wish Rosario wasn't getting suspended, he may have been good enough to be the centerpiece and between Dozier and then guys like Santana polanco coming up soon I'd feel comfortable letting him go.

 

Also yes, Dozier isn't a huge trade chip until he puts together a year that looks like his June-October did this year. I also feel like Gibson isn't a huge trade chip because I think his ML stint will be held against him. I like his chances to figure it out better and be a good mid rotation guys.

 

I wonder if a Rosario/Berrios would be good enough with maybe a major league bullpen piece like Burton or Fien thrown in.

[nicksaviking]

Interesting. MLBTR says Bailey's agent is Excel and BB -ref says its Hendricks Sports. Lot of Hendricks clients did test FA - Cuddyer, Guthrie, Jeter, Kershaw, Pettitte, and Greinke. Alex Gordon is one who signed a team extension but there aren't many others that I can tell.

 

Just playing devil's advocate, but Cuddyer wanted an extension but the Twins didn't put much effort into one and Jeter and Pettite played for the Yankees, a team that doesn't normally like to do extensions. I don't know that Guthrie was ever good enough to warrent an extension. Though when I heard the initial reports about Bailey getting shopped, every indication was that he wouldn't sign an extension.

[Willihammer]

Just playing devil's advocate, but Cuddyer wanted an extension but the Twins didn't put much effort into one and Jeter and Pettite played for the Yankees, a team that doesn't normally like to do extensions. I don't know that Guthrie was ever good enough to warrent an extension. Though when I heard the initial reports about Bailey getting shopped, every indication was that he wouldn't sign an extension.

 

This is also the agency representing Kershaw - who reportedly turned down a 300m extension offer from the Dodgers, and Greinke, who very openly said he was looking to get a payday out of FA.

 

Its tough to say for sure, especially since its not clear who Bailey is actually represented by, but I have to believe that players don't hook up with agencies randomly.

 

I like Bailey but if Excel is Bailey's agent and the trade price is higher than Perkins then I'd probably walk away. Heck I don't even know if I'd make that trade at all.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I am pretty sure the reason the Reds are interested in trading Bailey is that Bailey does not want to sign an extension.

 

I guess that means the Reds asking price for him would be lowered a bit, but I doubt the Twins could get him in exchange for spare parts. Look at what Garza fetched -- the preseason #22 overall prospect (albeit scuffling), a AA starter with 11 K/9, and an A starter with 12 K/9. Plus another MLB ready starter of Liam Hendriks' age (albeit also Liam Hendriks' MLB "success" too). And Garza had been limited by injury for two seasons, and could no longer net a comp draft pick for Texas after the season. Bailey has been healthy and if traded now, could still be made a qualifying offer after the season by his new team (and net a pick if he signs elsewhere).

 

What would be the Twins equivalent offer? Arcia, Liam Hendriks, Trevor May, Jose Berrios? No way the Twins should be giving up that talent (or prospective talent) when they are at least $30 million under budget.

[howieramone1406390264]

I am pretty sure the reason the Reds are interested in trading Bailey is that Bailey does not want to sign an extension.

 

I guess that means the Reds asking price for him would be lowered a bit, but I doubt the Twins could get him in exchange for spare parts. Look at what Garza fetched -- the preseason #22 overall prospect (albeit scuffling), a AA starter with 11 K/9, and an A starter with 12 K/9. Plus another MLB ready starter of Liam Hendriks' age (albeit also Liam Hendriks' MLB "success" too). And Garza had been limited by injury for two seasons, and could no longer net a comp draft pick for Texas after the season. Bailey has been healthy and if traded now, could still be made a qualifying offer after the season by his new team (and net a pick if he signs elsewhere).

 

What would be the Twins equivalent offer? Arcia, Liam Hendriks, Trevor May, Jose Berrios? No way the Twins should be giving up that talent (or prospective talent) when they are at least $30 million under budget.

 

The trade market is far larger and much more varied than the free agency market. Like King Theo says, there is no free agency for young players. To get a #2 like Bailey, with an agreed upon extension, I would make all but our untouchables available.

[Physics Guy]

When it was first rumored, I was on board with trading for Bailey. After thinking about it over the last month, I think the Twins should pass. It's not that I don't want Bailey on the team. I actually agree with Shane on this one. Garza has the best upside that isn't attached to a draft pick. Since the Twins are most likely still in rebuilding mode, they should sign two quality starters this year and try to reach respectability. Next year you go after Bailey in FA when it won't cost anything (except maybe a 2nd rounder or possibly a 1st rounder). Bailey is most likely not going to sign an extension, so then it would be foolish to trade for him.

[DaveW]

Bailey is most likely not going to sign an extension, so then it would be foolish to trade for him.

 

Again, this whole concept assumes you could get him to sign an extension. As mentioned above, all players and agents say they are going go to test the market, however there are teams that are able to lock up those players before they make it to the market (See: Felix, Verlander, Kershaw (soon), Cain, etc etc etc) If you offer a good deal, the player will listen and often times take it.

 

It takes two to tango, the Reds have been said to be looking to shed payroll, so while Bailey is "unlikely to sign an extension with them" they are probably not making him a legit offer to sign him and are choosing to invest in other areas. It reminds me of the Johan Santana situation, Johan was "unlikely to sign with the Twins" not because he was against signing before reaching free agency, but because the twins were obviously putting their assets in other places (morneau, Mauer) and weren't offering him anything close to a fair market deal. He got traded to the Mets and instantly signed a large extensions.

 

Same thing with the Reds, they are choosing to invest in other areas. That doesn't mean another team that trades for him can't give him the fair market value (and safety) that a extension would bring prior to the season. Keep in mind, as a pitcher there is always risk of elbow/arm problems, so if the Twins offered him 6/100, he would have to think long and hard about accepting IMO.

[TheLeviathan]

I worry the Twin's internal policies about extensions could make this notion moot.

[stupidloser55]

There isn't a huge reason to give up a top level prospect to get Bailey when you can get him as a F/A next year. The Twins have plenty of capacity to shell out money for Garza right now, and then after next season we'll shed $19M by having Willingham, Doumit, Correia, and Burton come off the payroll. That's the money they can use to sign Bailey. They would just have to hope they can sell him on coming here.

[Steve Lein]

I like the idea of trading for Bailey, BUT, none of us would like what it would take to get him here.

 

I'd think something along the lines of Arcia, Rosario, and Berrios would definitely spark a good conversation, but still don't know if that would get it done.

 

I would say look at the James Shields trade last year. I think Bailey is very comparable to him, not quite as good, but being younger plays up his value. It took trading Wil Myers, a top 5 prospect in baseball, to nab him.

 

We don't have a Wil Myers that we're going to trade. (At least I hope we don't, though I will say I'm scared to death the Twins will listen about Sano, just because of the type of personality he is)

 

But I do agree, any trade like this would have to be contingent on Bailey signing an extension immediately with the Twins. Not even a conversation worth having if you're only trading for 1 season of him.

[johnnydakota]

You're a good adversary, Dave. What are you talking about in regards to Bailey's value? He has had two very good seasons in a row, yes. Garza blows Bailey out of the water. Bailey is similar to Jimenez, Santana, and potentially Kazmir and company.

 

Anyway, do you like the possibility of Plouffe, D. Santana, D.J. Baxendale, and Zach Jones for Bailey? (sub Harrison in for any of the last three)???

 

Gotta ask , you seem to be down on Santana , is there some thing I am missing about him?

[goulik]

1. If the Reds KNOW they are not keeping him and EVERYONE else knows it too, they are not going to get maximum value.

 

2. There is no guarantee he will ever be a free agent. If he is traded to someone else willing to blow him away with an extension, we will not even get a chance to talk to him. (Tampering rules apply here also)

 

3. The team that trades for him will be the ONLY team negotiating and I would not mind being the only team negotiating with him.

 

4. It is a risk so Top prospects are off the board for us and not for contenders so we are VERY unlikely to get him without adding MLB ready players... This is where this discussion should center. Do we have what they would want to contend next year?

[Brad Swanson]

If the Twins have really signed Nolasco, I'd be even more inclined to move a package centered around Rosario and Berrios for Bailey. The Twins have an entire year to work out an extension and could legitimately point toward a team that could contend for a playoff spot in 2015 with Bailey, Nolasco, Gibson and Meyer in the rotation and Mauer, Sano, Arcia and Buxton (among others) on offense. Plus, I read in another thread that Ryan Hanigan is "going to be traded" and he would be a great fit behind the plate at a very low cost. If the Twins could get Bailey and Hanigan, then I'd probably start printing my counterfeit parade tickets right now.

[Trevor0333]

Contingent on him agreeing in principle to a extension I would offer up Polanco with Worley & am see if they bite.

 

Polanco is blocked by Dozier & Rosario making him expendable IMO. If it took adding Gibson I'd think hard & probably do it only because I'm not convinced Gibson will ever be anything more than a average # 5.

 

Hell no on Berrios or Rosario.

[twinsfaninsaudi]

If it's a second baseman Cincy wants give them Dozier, not Rosario.

[Brad Swanson]

Contingent on him agreeing in principle to a extension I would offer up Polanco with Worley & am see if they bite.

 

 

They won't bite. It's not just about keeping who we want to keep. You have to give something valuable to get something valuable in return. I like Rosario and Berrios too, but at their peak is there a chance either is as good as Bailey is right now? I'd say it is unlikely.

[twinsfaninsaudi]

If it's a second baseman Cincy wants give them Dozier, not Rosario.

 

Heck, I wonder if they would be foolish enough to take Dozier, Gibson, and Plouffe. That would be a steal with a contract extension. Surely Dozier is at his peak value.