The Return of Mike Pelfrey

[Mike Sixel]

We had this conversation last year, right? If he's signed as the 5th starter, it is a fine signing. If he's your top signing, that's probably an issue. It sure was last year.

[DaveW]

 

On the other hand, I'm really tired of contact pitchers. Even signing one that looks to rebound leaves a bad taste in my mouth. It's also why I'm meh on Arroyo (also his age).

 

 

Nobody is going to confuse Pelfrey with Roger Clemens, but he did put up the highest k/9 rate of his career last year coming back from TJS, he had 63 K's in his 81 innings when he got "recalled" to the big leagues. While 6.0-6.5 k/9 rates isn't fantastic, it isn't terrible as well, especially if you are talking about your back end rotation guy. Again he isn't some fire baller who is going to give you double digit strike outs, but he isn't Nick Blackburn or Kevin Correia as well.

 

Strike outs cost a premium on the market, (Just look at the Edwin Jackson contract for an example) and this is fine, as you mention and has been mentioned, signing Pelfrey doesn't stop you from signing/trading for a guy with more strike outs (Garza, Bailey etc)

 

It's not the best example, but I feel its worth bringing it up. Prior to 2013 I advocated signing a pitcher to a very similar contract, it was a guy who had an ugly 2012 ERA, but whos advanced numbers painted a story that he got unlucky, it was a guy who had talent and had success in the majors prior to an injury.

 

That guy was Francisco Liriano, while the comparisons/pitching styles are different, its not hard to see a couple similarities here as a buy low/decent upside signing. Give me that 7 days a week over giving a guy a contract until he is 40 at 10 mil a year (3 years) where there is zero chance of improvement. Again I think there is a pretty solid chance Pelfrey produces just as much as Arroyo over the next two years (even more so over the next 3 years) for literally a fraction of the cost.

[Mike Sixel]

Except Liriano was once good, and Pelfrey has never really been that good. Though I agree on Arroyo.

[Thrylos]

You have to admire Ryan as a man of his word...this is definitely not a short cut.

 

Do you remember the "no more scholarships" words of Ryan right after his return in the GM position after 2011? Look at who he held accountable for the 2012 and 2013 seasons and reconsider whether or not his words carry any gravity.

[DaveW]

Except Liriano was once good, and Pelfrey has never really been that good. Though I agree on Arroyo.

 

2008 Liriano: 3.91 ERA 108 ERA+ (78 IP)

2010: Liriano: 3.68 ERA 112 ERA+ (198 IP)

76, 78, 80 were his other ERA+ in the three down seasons.

 

2008 Pelfrey: 3.72 ERA 113 ERA+ (200 IP)

2010: Pelfrey: 3.66 ERA 107 ERA+ (204 IP)

78, 78, 81 were his other ERA+ in the down seasons.

 

Now, I think Liriano is a "better" pitcher then Pelfrey and has more upside, however I think the gap isn't as huge as some like to make. You can say what you want about Pelfrey, but you can't deny that those two seasons above (200 IP and a sub 3.75 ERA) don't qualify as "good"

[stupidloser55]

The thing you have to remember though about Arroyo is he has a proven track record of being healthy. Additionally you probably are paying for him to be a bit of a mentor and his years of preparing himself to make every start, every year. That kind of leadership is needed on a team as young as the Twins. Plus he's pitched on a lot of winning teams and has that wisdom and experience to share.

 

I 100% agree that in theory if Pelfrey is back to being healthy, he's probably just as good as Arroyo, with a tick more upside, at a much lower cost and commitment length. I'm not all that bummed out about this potential signing. Especially if he ends up giving the Twins 400 innings over the next two years. That has a lot of value to the Twins right now. That is one less rotation spot they need to worry about for two years. It's not as if Gibson, Worley, and Deduno have shown they can be let loose for 30 starts and will keep the Twins competitive.

 

I would still like to see them sign another guy, someone like Arroyo, so we can at least go into the year with three guys we can relatively count on in theory to stay healthy for 180 innings and 28-30 starts. That gives them a lot of leeway with the fringe starters right now like Deduno, Gibson, Worley, and possibly May and Meyer at some point.

 

Plus, if we truly are competitive for next year, or look like we might be, I'd be much more excited to go after guys like Bailey, Gallardo, Brett Anderson, Peavy, etc.

[Alex]

 

That guy was Francisco Liriano, while the comparisons/pitching styles are different, its not hard to see a couple similarities here as a buy low/decent upside signing. Give me that 7 days a week over giving a guy a contract until he is 40 at 10 mil a year (3 years) where there is zero chance of improvement. Again I think there is a pretty solid chance Pelfrey produces just as much as Arroyo over the next two years (even more so over the next 3 years) for literally a fraction of the cost.

 

No. This would not a low risk/"decent" upside signing and is only comparable Liriano on the slimmest of of superficial elements. With Pelfrey, the best you can hope for is average to slightly above average, not unlike Correia. Liriano is the definition of low risk/high upside in that he's had some rough seasons but he's also had dominating ones and his stuff has the potential to have more.

 

This would be a low risk/low upside signing. Which, as people have mentioned is fine if this isn't their top signing, but as many have pointed out, there's no real reason to go with a guy like this in late November/December.

[Alex]

Do you remember the "no more scholarships" words of Ryan right after his return in the GM position after 2011? Look at who he held accountable for the 2012 and 2013 seasons and reconsider whether or not his words carry any gravity.

 

You obviously missed the irony in my post.

 

I agree with you and there are plenty of other examples where Ryan's words don't match the result or effort. Whether that's because he over-promises and underperforms due to circumstances or because it's saying one thing to appease season ticket holders and really planning something different. As others have said, neither is good.

 

Of course, I much appreciated Jeremy and Seth's podcast with Mike Bernadino where they mostly agreed that it doesn't make sense and this could just be a rumor and isn't coming from the Twins camp, so maybe this all didn't happen or is a very preliminary offer.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The thing you have to remember though about Arroyo is he has a proven track record of being healthy. Additionally you probably are paying for him to be a bit of a mentor and his years of preparing himself to make every start, every year. That kind of leadership is needed on a team as young as the Twins. Plus he's pitched on a lot of winning teams and has that wisdom and experience to share.

 

While I don't entirely disagree, I'd like to point out that it's somewhat of a leap to expect continued health of a "durable" pitcher through his late 30s.

[TheLeviathan]

Did I say 3M anywhere? I think i was saying 2 years at 5-6 mil per season. (I'd also prefer a team option for 7 million (500k buyout) for the 3rd year, in the case that he turns it around.

 

Pelfrey is only a guaranteed rotation spot for the first few months of 2014 if he signs, the overall contract wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to shed (ala Marquis, Blackburn etc)

 

That's the nice thing about Pelfrey vs a guy like Arroyo, if he sucks/regresses you eat a third of the money.

 

You're right, you said 4M (2/8) after someone else said 3. This post is closer - I think 2/12 is probably the cheapest you can expect.

 

And while you might believe he's only guaranteed a rotation spot that long, I'm not sure the Twins would operate that way. Moreover, it's not how long into the season he's guaranteed, it's that it may alter your offseason plans to already fill an open slot with a pitcher of his caliber rather than one much better.

[DaveW]

 

And while you might believe he's only guaranteed a rotation spot that long, I'm not sure the Twins would operate that way. Moreover, it's not how long into the season he's guaranteed, it's that it may alter your offseason plans to already fill an open slot with a pitcher of his caliber rather than one much better.

 

The Twins have proven to cut bait with SP before (sometimes a bit later then we prefer) but they do it, even when decent money is owed: Marquis and Blackburn are the two recent examples. Nishi (position player) the same. That shouldn't be a concern when you are only paying him 5-6 mil for only 2 years.

 

As far as altering the off-season plans, he is the guy you plug in at the back end of the rotation. The only one he really sort of prevents you from signing (HOPEFULLY) is a backend guy like Arroyo, it doesn't preclude you from the garza's, Santana's, Kazmirs, Ubaldo's etc of the world.

[stupidloser55]

While I don't entirely disagree, I'd like to point out that it's somewhat of a leap to expect continued health of a "durable" pitcher through his late 30s.

 

Why not? What in Arroyo's background shows you shouldn't expect him to hold up for 600 innings over the next three years? Moyer, Wells, Maddux, and Kuroda have done just fine in their late 30's.

[DaveW]

Why not? What in Arroyo's background shows you shouldn't expect him to hold up for 600 innings over the next three years? Moyer, Wells, Maddux, and Kuroda have done just fine in their late 30's.

 

Those are the exceptions to the rule.

[TheLeviathan]

As far as altering the off-season plans, he is the guy you plug in at the back end of the rotation. The only one he really sort of prevents you from signing (HOPEFULLY) is a backend guy like Arroyo, it doesn't preclude you from the garza's, Santana's, Kazmirs, Ubaldo's etc of the world.

 

Your problem is that you're arguing what would be a sensible way for the Twins to approach FA. And we've seen ample evidence that they don't approach it sensibly. Pelfrey is evidence of the same tired strategies and I just don't want to see him signed until those strategies have gone away.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Those are the exceptions to the rule.

 

Yep. The typical player model through late 30s is pretty ugly.

 

That doesn't mean Arroyo will break down. He could very well be healthy through his early 40s.

 

But banking on that being the case is a mistake.

[stupidloser55]

Yep. The typical player model through late 30s is pretty ugly.

 

That doesn't mean Arroyo will break down. He could very well be healthy through his early 40s.

 

But banking on that being the case is a mistake.

 

I'm not entirely sure I agree with you. I get what you're saying, I do. But I don't see a reason to think that just because Arroyo will be 37-39 that he can't throw 180 innings a year. There is just nothing in his history to suggest he can't do that. He doesn't throw hard, he doesn't have a violent motion, he doesn't throw any pitch types that tax his elbow, so for me, I don't see a reason he can't keep doing it. I would certainly expect him to continue being an exception to this rule.

[Major League Ready]

Why not? What in Arroyo's background shows you shouldn't expect him to hold up for 600 innings over the next three years? Moyer, Wells, Maddux, and Kuroda have done just fine in their late 30's.

 

They are the exeption, not the rule. They have already surpassed the point where most SPs performance tails off. Using anomlies as justification is a really bad idea. He could easily decline next year. Still, he was pretty good last year so two years is probably an exceptable risk. Three years has a high probability of failure.

 

Edit: Sorry, I did not see Dave already pointed out they are the exception.

[twinscowboysbulls]

I would rather the Twins do absolutely nothing (See Early Judgment: Things haven't changed in Twins Territory) than sign Mike Pelfrey. Now if we are adding Garza and another pitcher that is an upgrade (Arroyo, Kazmir, Nolasco) what is the point of adding Pelfrey as well? Is it worth pitching Pelfrey over young guys that could actually be worth something? (Meyer, Gibson, Deduno, Diamond, etc)

IMO, Twins should be signing a top guy for 4-5 years, a middle type guy for 2-3 years and someone on a 1 year deal. PELFREY would not qualify as the middle type guy IMO. He would be the guy on a 1 year deal at best, obviously we are looking at him for a multi-year deal. PATHETIC.

 

The worst part about all of this is that it sends the wrong message to EVERYONE.

FANS: We see 90+ straight loss seasons. Here about all these possible fantastic free agents we might get, and now the first offer we make is to a guy who OVERALL sucked last year.

 

TEAM: SAME THING, players that are actually decent on the team, want to see upgrades not lateral moves.

 

OTHER FA's: See that our GM is not really trying to put a competitive product on the field. (For instance if we were offering Garza and actually signed him, FA would be thinking and saying to themselves, wow, maybe TR really is trying to compete, maybe I'll look a little closer at his offer and actually consider it)

[twinscowboysbulls]

Two years wouldn't guarantee a rotation spot at all, the Twins have shown in the very recent past they aren't afraid to send a guy down who isn't preforming, even on a guaranteed deal: Nishi, Blackburn etc

 

Again, don't spend a lot fortifying the back end of your rotation, save that money for a high upside pitcher like Garza.

 

Are you serious MackBrownS*****? If they sign Pelfrey to a 2 year deal,he is GUARANTEED to be in the rotation from April 2014 until August 2014. After that, I agree with you, he could be taken out of the rotation going into 2015.

[twinscowboysbulls]

His last 4 years with the Mets he averaged 196 IP a year and a 4.22 ERA, FWIW he also had the highest K rate of his career last year as a Twin at 6.0. After he was brought back up he put up 63 K in 82 inning which creeps him closer to a 7.0 k/9 rate.

 

 

None of that of course is a sure thing, which is why he comes cheap. However, if given the choice between Pelfrey at 2/10 or 38 year old Arroyo for three times the total salary and 1 more year? Give me Pelfrey. Ideally you could get him on 2/10 or 2/12 with a 7 million dollar TEAM option for a third year

 

I will only be infuriated if he is the best pitcher we sign this off-season

 

That was in the NL, PRE-TJ, How old is he now? You are overly-hopeful on Pelfrey. He is nice on a 1 year 3 million dollar deal as your 4th/5th best offseason acquisition. I think the only thing you and I agree on is that he is ok if he is the 4th or 5th best guy you add.

[Brock Beauchamp]

That was in the NL, PRE-TJ, How old is he now? You are overly-hopeful on Pelfrey. He is nice on a 1 year 3 million dollar deal as your 4th/5th best offseason acquisition. I think the only thing you and I agree on is that he is ok if he is the 4th or 5th best guy you add.

 

While I think a healthy Mike Pelfrey's ceiling is probably an ERA+ of 105 or so (with 95-100 more likely), he's only going into his age 30 season. His age isn't a problem.

[twinscowboysbulls]

That is the beauty of being a fan. LOTS of fans think they know how to run a MLB franchise better than those who have the job. Hard to imagine why they pay GMs $1M+ year when there are so many people working for $50K (or less) a year who can do the job better.

 

Here is a little truth for you buddy, any one of us posting on here could've lost 90+ games being the GM for the Twins the last 3 years. Making those statements do not make Terry Ryan and company look any better. Of course none of us would OVERALL do a better job running the team as a whole, but many of us have better ideas on who we should sign and who we shouldn't. You give a front office too much credibility for not winning a playoff series since...... still searching.....for not winning a playoff game since....

[DaveW]

While I think a healthy Mike Pelfrey's ceiling is probably an ERA+ of 105 or so (with 95-100 more likely), he's only going into his age 30 season. His age isn't a problem.

Yeah, his age isn't an issue at all unless we are talking about signing him to a 6 or 7 year contract (we aren't)

An ERA+ of 95-105 with 200 IP is worth more than 1 year 3 mil.

[twinscowboysbulls]

im p.o.ed too. It's not that Pelfrey is bad. He's fine, if he were a finishing touch to round out a GOOD rotation, I would be over the moon. The problem is, he's the first, not the last. There's already plans for yet another 5 plus ERA back of the rotation filler guy who's just like the rest of a rotation full of back of the rotation filler guys, and no real movement yet ( and probably won't be) on a high end front of the rotation guy or three.

 

You stated it perfectly, I said in a couple posts ago that Pelfrey sucks, I take that part back, it's that he sucks when comparing him to other pitchers who slot comparably into his spot in the rotation...EXAMPLE:

 

Pelfrey probably #2 starter currently, if signed vs. the rest of the league's #2 starter.

[DaveW]

Here is a little truth for you buddy, any one of us posting on here could've lost 90+ games being the GM for the Twins the last 3 years. Making those statements do not make Terry Ryan and company look any better. Of course none of us would OVERALL do a better job running the team as a whole, but many of us have better ideas on who we should sign and who we shouldn't. You give a front office too much credibility for not winning a playoff series since...... still searching.....for not winning a playoff game since....

 

But how many of "us" posting on here could have built a team on limited funds that won 6 division titles in 9 years. If you are going to blame Ryan for the failures of the team, you better give him 100% credit for the successes.

[DaveW]

You stated it perfectly, I said in a couple posts ago that Pelfrey sucks, I take that part back, it's that he sucks when comparing him to other pitchers who slot comparably into his spot in the rotation...EXAMPLE:

 

Pelfrey probably #2 starter currently, if signed vs. the rest of the league's #2 starter.

Dude, just stop making up these arguments that aren't existing. Nobody is claiming he is going to be the Twins #2 pitcher. I said he will be the Twins #4/#5.

[stupidloser55]

They are the exeption, not the rule. They have already surpassed the point where most SPs performance tails off. Using anomlies as justification is a really bad idea. He could easily decline next year. Still, he was pretty good last year so two years is probably an exceptable risk. Three years has a high probability of failure.

 

Edit: Sorry, I did not see Dave already pointed out they are the exception.

 

If you have examples of the rule I'd love to see them and examine them. (That's not sarcastic by the way) I'd also like the examples to be recent, within the last 10-15 years. I say that because training and injury prevention has come a long way recently.

 

Even doing a little more research, I still see guys like Kevin Brown Mike Mussina, and Curt Schilling throwing until 39. Those guys were more power arms but still.

 

Arroyo compares more to guys that I listed earlier, and even guys like Hudson and Glavine who threw well enough into their late 30's or still are. I just don't think we write off Arroyo so quickly that we can't expect him to last that long.

[twinscowboysbulls]

But how many of "us" posting on here could have built a team on limited funds that won 6 division titles in 9 years. If you are going to blame Ryan for the failures of the team, you better give him 100% credit for the successes.

 

None of us could've done that. When I said "overall" I meant it. Most of the moves that built those teams were drafts, trades that worked out great for the Twins. Now over the past few years, any of us could've done those and probably signed better players to boot. (Talking exclusively on the MLB side of things, not international signings, drafting, development, etc) TR needs to evolve. He has the budget to do so. Evolution doesn't mean change 100%, hell I still have monkey arms, my point is that he should still be able to do all of the things he has done in the past that have made him successful (scout, develop, make sneaky trades) while for once in his career, he has the money to supplement his roster with talent from outside the organization through FA, something he really has never had the money to do.

 

I'm not 100% sold on the idea that he understands he has the money to sign players better than Corriea, Pelfrey, Marquis. EVOLVE TERRY.

[twinscowboysbulls]

But how many of "us" posting on here could have built a team on limited funds that won 6 division titles in 9 years. If you are going to blame Ryan for the failures of the team, you better give him 100% credit for the successes.

 

None of us could've done that. When I said "overall" I meant it. Most of the moves that built those teams were drafts, trades that worked out great for the Twins. Now over the past few years, any of us could've done those and probably signed better players to boot. (Talking exclusively on the MLB side of things, not international signings, drafting, development, etc) TR needs to evolve. He has the budget to do so. Evolution doesn't mean change 100%, hell I still have monkey arms, my point is that he should still be able to do all of the things he has done in the past that have made him successful (scout, develop, make sneaky trades) while for once in his career, he has the money to supplement his roster with talent from outside the organization through FA, something he really has never had the money to do.

 

I'm not 100% sold on the idea that he understands he has the money to sign players better than Corriea, Pelfrey, Marquis. EVOLVE TERRY.

[twinscowboysbulls]

Dude, just stop making up these arguments that aren't existing. Nobody is claiming he is going to be the Twins #2 pitcher. I said he will be the Twins #4/#5.

 

I'm not making up arguments, I'm just trying to state what I believe are the facts. If Pelfrey is signed tomorrow, where is he in our current rotation? I think they would be slotting him into the #2 spot in our rotation behind KC. I didn't say that you said he was a #2 type pitcher, sorry if that is what it looked like. I know you aren't that crazy.