The Return of Mike Pelfrey

[notoriousgod71]

"I'm a fan, how hard could being a GM be?"- David Kahn

 

It's not impossible, but that is a quick change of tune for your "a good number of posters here could do a better job etc etc"

 

I don't particularly care for Kahn but is he really any worse than McHale?

 

Would it change your opinion if I mentioned that I believe you would probably be a more successful GM? Your blueprint is far better than anything the Twins have done over the past 20 years. Even if they only partially did what you suggest it would be a success of an off-season.

[DaveW]

Also, Ryan earned his stripes the hard way, 6 years as a damn fine scout for the Mets, followed by scouting director by the Twins for 6 years and another couple years as McPhails right hand man before taking over as GM, in which he took one of the lowest payrolled teams in baseball and built the core that won 6 division titles in 9 years with a damn fine run of good trades, including the Knoblauch one, The AJ one, Hollins for David Ortiz, Kelly for Joe Mays, Buchannan for Bartlerr, Kielty for Shannon Stewart, Aggie for Loshe, Milton for Silva/Punto.

 

Yeah, things have sucked since he has been back, but he was dealt a pretty ****ty hand and really, has he made a bad trade/bad signing yet?

 

I'd like to think I am a pretty smart baseball fan/have been playing/watching/studying my whole life/strong business background etc, however I can say without a doubt I couldn't hold a freaking candle to what Ryan has done and will continue to do, chances are nearly everyone else here would be the exact same (if not everyone). I appreciate the kind words about my blueprint, but there is a ton more going on behind the scenes/complications that none of us are really aware of.

 

Also in re: to my blueprint, that would be assuming those players all would sign for the amounts I suggested, whereas there are reports of all 4 guys looking for higher deals (Garza, Salty, Hughes) or 1 year deals (Hughes)

[ND-Fan]

Signing of Pelfry I think will be a good move but what would be terrible if this is only or best pitcher they sign. The Twins are going to need couple of pitchers like Pelfry and I think two year is not big financial risk and gives them control for probably 3 years if option is added. The cost of pitching is going up look at last year Correia contract looked terrible and I was one posting to the effect and now this year its considered a bargain. The Twins need to fill starters and this is a start. This will give them Pelfry, Corriea , and if healthy Deduno for 3,4, and 5 Starters. If they sign a good number 2 starter and say somebody like Hughes for number 3 Starter with others listed above twins would have much improved starting rotation. Then add in Gibson which I think could still develop into good number 3 starter and Myer coming along they would have quality pitching staff for next couple of years without a lot of money spent. Then add all good young prospects that will come up in next couple years and Twins could have really competitive team. I just wish Twins would stop being so tentative and get the job done. They know baseball and can see the talent they have and now they have money to spend to get to where they need to get its just pulling the Trigger. If they don't do this ownership got intervene set the direction and speed of rebuild to management. Otherwise I would hate to have Dave ST. Peters job of trying to sell this product and keep revenues up for the Twins. He would have baseball side of business controlling costs to point that everything they save is being lost because the Twins Brand is becoming worth less each year with decreasing revenues from gate to Tv to sports merchandise. Something that not easy to build up and also loosing of generation of fans to other sports.

[DaveW]

I don't particularly care for Kahn but is he really any worse than McHale?

 

 

2009 draft is all that needs to be said, 3 PG's chosen in the first 17 picks, and he passed twice on Stephen Curry....ugh. The only thing that barely saved him in that draft was that Rubio finally agreed to come over years later..

 

McHale was much better IMO, his huge bonehead move was the Joe Smith Fiasco, however that punishment was so over the top, Stern is such a P.O.S

[DaveW]

I just wish Twins would stop being so tentative and get the job done.

 

This is being debated to death in other threads, the only thing i will say its still very early, none of the real top free agents sans McCann are off the board at this point (I don't really count Lincecum as that was different) and Josh Johnson basically choose where he wanted to go.

 

None of the guys the Twins have been linked to have signed anywhere yet I believe.

[Shane Wahl]

The Twins have made a two-year offer to Mike Pelfrey, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. However, there's still a gap in salary that needs to be bridged. Pelfrey returned from Tommy John surgery in 2012 to post a 5.19 ERA with 6.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a career-low 43.2 percent ground-ball rate in 152 2/3 innings. Pelfrey's FIP (3.99) and xFIP (4.54) both suggest that his ERA could have been lower were it not for a .337 BABIP and 67.2 percent strand rate.

 

Why even bother? Pelfrey is not going to help in any way. The best thing to do when you are a garbage team is to obviously resign your own trash. PONY UP SOME MONEY AND SIGN SOMEONE GOOD!!!

 

How many million likes can I give to this!? It makes me sick to think that this has been considered, even.

[DaveW]

How many million likes can I give to this!? It makes me sick to think that this has been considered, even.

 

For all the hate he is getting, Pelfrey lead the staff last year in K/9, WAR and was only .03 behind Albers for the FIP lead. Additionally he was 2nd in IP. I get that the rotation was terrible, but they aren't going to bring in 4 or 5 new pitchers via trades/free agency, so you need to get some cheap production somewhere.

[Shane Wahl]

Defenders of Pelfrey straight up amaze me. He has been bad for most of his career. That they offer to HIM and not others by now is pretty indicative of why Terry Ryan needs to be fired on the spot. How is this not clear? This is baffling.

 

Keep on defending Terry Ryan all you want, people. This coupled with the jabbering about Swarzak and Duensing potentially being starters lets you know that it is possible to have literally NO other FA signings beyond Pelfrey for 2014.

 

Correia

Pelfrey

Diamond

Deduno

Gibson

 

Might be the best they offer in 2014. you dig?

[Shane Wahl]

That TR interview in the handbook really was illuminating, by the way. Again . . . I was told that I made too much out of that. When Eric Fryer is the first bright spot mentioned, you know the rest of the story. Only new ownership is going to save this team.

[Benchwarmerjim]

I hope the Royals swoop in and give Pelfrey a bigger offer.

 

or there is a clause in his contract that say he has to speed up his pace.

[DaveW]

Defenders of Pelfrey straight up amaze me. He has been bad for most of his career. That they offer to HIM and not others by now is pretty indicative of why Terry Ryan needs to be fired on the spot. How is this not clear? This is baffling.

Fired on the spot for trying to sign a guy who can be a solid back end guy? Ok, yeah that makes sense.

 

You are completely wrong about him being "bad" for most of his career:

 

Once again, His four full seasons in New York he averaged 196 IP a season along with a 4.27 ERA.

 

For comparisons sake:

Ricky Nolasco's last 4 seasons: 188 IP, 4.48 ERA.

Bronson Arroyo last 4 seasons: 208 IP, 4.05 ERA (however looking for 30+ mil and 3 years as a 37 year old)

Phil Hughes last 4 seasons: (Who I advocate signing) 147 IP 4.65 ERA

Jason Vargas last 4 seasons: 197 IP, 3.97 ERA (32 mil contract signed)

 

The beauty about Pelfrey is he will cost literally a FRACTION of those players.

 

Sure Pelfrey's 2013 ERA etc look ugly, however as mentioned his FIP and xFIP tell a diff story, and he was a much diff pitcher once he came back to the Twins after more or less a couple weeks off......and he was on a very very aggressive path/timeline back from TJS. His velocity and everything is back to normal (and possible it gets even higher?) and as mentioned his k/9 rate saw an increase...and is still only 29.

 

It's actually a perfect buy low signing, especially if they can get a team option for a third year. If he gives you his pre TJS numbers of 185-200 IP and a 4.25-4.35 ERA he is a freaking steal at 5-6 mil a year.

[Shane Wahl]

For all the hate he is getting, Pelfrey lead the staff last year in K/9, WAR and was only .03 behind Albers for the FIP lead. Additionally he was 2nd in IP. I get that the rotation was terrible, but they aren't going to bring in 4 or 5 new pitchers via trades/free agency, so you need to get some cheap production somewhere.

 

BR vs. Fangraphs with regard to WAR, again. I am amazed by the defense of this guy. The dude can't get past the fifth inning most of the time and THIS is what you want to sign????????

 

How many question marks are needed?

[DaveW]

Also in two of his four full seasons (prior to TJS) Pelfrey posted 3.66 ERA and a 3.72 ERA with over 200 IP each season. Which actually is the opposite of "bad"

[Shane Wahl]

Tanaka, Garza, Kuroda (less clear about the Yankees resigning him now), Jimenez, Kazmir, Santana, Feldman, Arroyo, and Hughes.

 

Is it so crazy to think the Twins could get some two of these guys? Is one really impossible?

[notoriousgod71]

Also, Ryan earned his stripes the hard way, 6 years as a damn fine scout for the Mets, followed by scouting director by the Twins for 6 years and another couple years as McPhails right hand man before taking over as GM, in which he took one of the lowest payrolled teams in baseball and built the core that won 6 division titles in 9 years with a damn fine run of good trades, including the Knoblauch one, The AJ one, Hollins for David Ortiz, Kelly for Joe Mays, Buchannan for Bartlerr, Kielty for Shannon Stewart, Aggie for Loshe, Milton for Silva/Punto.

 

Yeah, things have sucked since he has been back, but he was dealt a pretty ****ty hand and really, has he made a bad trade/bad signing yet?

 

I'd like to think I am a pretty smart baseball fan/have been playing/watching/studying my whole life/strong business background etc, however I can say without a doubt I couldn't hold a freaking candle to what Ryan has done and will continue to do, chances are nearly everyone else here would be the exact same (if not everyone). I appreciate the kind words about my blueprint, but there is a ton more going on behind the scenes/complications that none of us are really aware of.

 

Also in re: to my blueprint, that would be assuming those players all would sign for the amounts I suggested, whereas there are reports of all 4 guys looking for higher deals (Garza, Salty, Hughes) or 1 year deals (Hughes)

 

I'm far too frustrated with everything Twins related at the moment to think or write rationally. I'll give it a shot again tomorrow.

[Shane Wahl]

Also in two of his four full seasons (prior to TJS) Pelfrey posted 3.66 ERA and a 3.72 ERA with over 200 IP each season. Which actually is the opposite of "bad"

 

Do things like ERA+, WHIP, and K/BB ratio not matter to you at all? Also, his hit rate is great fun.

[DaveW]

BR vs. Fangraphs with regard to WAR, again. I am amazed by the defense of this guy. The dude can't get past the fifth inning most of the time and THIS is what you want to sign????????

 

How many question marks are needed?

 

You do realize he was coming off Tommy John surgery literally 1 year to the day, right? It typically takes most pitchers some time after that to get back to "normal" by his own admission prior to opening day he admitted "rushing the rehab" in order to get back and get a contract for 2013.

 

You do realize this, right? Or do you just want to continue to ignore this (and his success in New York) to fit your tired rhetoric?

[DaveW]

Do things like ERA+, WHIP, and K/BB ratio not matter to you at all? Also, his hit rate is great fun.

 

Those two seasons I mentioned he had a 113 and 107 ERA+, you understand how ERA+ works and how your average #4 and #5's rank on it correct? For comparisons sake, Jon Lester, the world series winning Red Sox ace had a 109 ERA+ this season.

 

The Twins have had exactly 4 pitchers pitch for a 107 or higher ERA+ in the last 4 years.

[Shane Wahl]

Look at career numbers, then. Good grief. In 1049 innings pitched he has a 4.48 ERA, 607 strikeouts, 371 walks, a 1.472 WHIP, a 90 ERA+, and 1,173 hits given up.

 

Why would any rational team bother with this kind of production which is simply replacement value (500K)?

[DaveW]

Look at career numbers, then. Good grief. In 1049 innings pitched he has a 4.48 ERA, 607 strikeouts, 371 walks, a 1.472 WHIP, a 90 ERA+, and 1,173 hits given up.

 

Why would any rational team bother with this kind of production which is simply replacement value (500K)?

First off in a total of just a tad over 5 full seasons (adds in the partial seasons of 2013, 2007 and non existent one of 2012) he has 10.2 WAR, which alone indicates he is in fact not replacement level. Also 20% of those numbers (2013) are him coming off of Tommy John Surgery........

 

Meanwhile, Nolasco has a 4.37 ERA, 1312 IP, 1385 H, 94 ERA+ and people want to give him 4 years and 4x the overall money.

 

Continue to disgaree, and spout off all you want, but if he If he gives you his pre TJS numbers of 185-200 IP and a 4.25-4.35 ERA he provides plenty of value.

[Shane Wahl]

I hate the idea of the Twins signing Nolasco and have been CLEAR about that.

 

Pelfrey is a waste of space. I would rather let Liam Hendriks try out again for 1/10 the cost and likely a similar value.

[DaveW]

I hate the idea of the Twins signing Nolasco and have been CLEAR about that.

 

Pelfrey is a waste of space. I would rather let Liam Hendriks try out again for 1/10 the cost and likely a similar value.

 

You realize he has a 6.06 ERA and 68 ERA+ in his 150+ IP in the majors right?

 

You are just being silly now.

[Shane Wahl]

I am shocked by the amount of support for paying millions to replacement level pitchers. Even Arroyo is better than that, and he is OLD.

[DaveW]

I am shocked by the amount of support for paying millions to replacement level pitchers. Even Arroyo is better than that, and he is OLD.

 

Arroyo also costs 3x as much....

[Shane Wahl]

You realize he has a 6.06 ERA and 68 ERA+ in his 150+ IP in the majors right?

 

You are just being silly now.

 

Hendriks is 5 years younger with no such health issues and a comparable K rate. Certainly a better k/bb rate without actually looking.

 

Anyway, yes, I will go on the record as saying that I would prefer the Twins give the 5th starter role to Liam Hendriks at $500K than Mike Pelfrey at $4-5 million.

[Marta Shearing]

I would be tickled pink if our rotation went:

Garza

Pelfrey

Correia

Deduno

Gibson

 

With meyer and may ready by midseason.

[Shane Wahl]

I would be tickled pink if our rotation went:

Garza

Pelfrey

Correia

Deduno

Gibson

 

I laugh at how you put Pelfrey above Correia and Deduno here. What?

 

Anyway, one pitcher is not enough.

[AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS]

I just puked in my mouth reading this. Sure Pelfrey as a #5 starter....but he is not going to be considered our #5 starter...he will be considered our #2....gross. C'MON MAN!

[AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS]

I laugh at how you put Pelfrey above Correia and Deduno here. What?

 

Anyway, one pitcher is not enough.

 

Totally agree. What's Garza's WAR? Like 3? That isnt going to cut it. Sure I would love Garza but we need more than one pitcher. If this offseason all they do is keep Pelfrey and sign Garza...it is a failure.

[Marta Shearing]

I really wasnt putting them in any particular order. With Ryan in charge, I think Garza and Pelfrey is the best we can hope for, and I dont think he'll do that much.