Josh Johnson to the Padres

[kab21]

Possible trade chip.

Inside track to resigning him for 2015.

 

The most obvious benefit - not having to watch a team getting mauled in 2014.

 

The 2nd most obvious - pitching well enough that he's a lock to turn down a qualifying offer

[Shane Wahl]

I believe I am 2 for 5 in my MLBTR free agent predictions: Johnson and C. Young right, Byrd, Hudson, and Ruiz wrong.

[Rosterman]

Did he get a discount. If he meets incentives, will still be a decent one-year signing. I doubt that anyone would give him two years guaranteed. Plus he seemed to be picking his marketplace. If he has a great year, he's a free agent again. If he doesn't have a great year, San Diego has an option to bring him back. Good move by San Diego.

 

This is one area that the Twins have to get more comfortable with. In any free agent signing (or extended contracts) there will always be a Toshi potential, and you may have a Mays or a Balckburn deal. It is the chance you take. Anywhere from 10-20% of the money you budget from salary may sit on the sidelines that season. It happens in football, t happens in basketball. You can try and escape it, but it will happen.

 

Do we hear anyone complain when a player overperforms their contract? Do we hear teams complain when they overpay a free agent when the team the player leaves should actually be overpaying that free agent for past services, in a way? (on the flipside, do overpaid free agents ever give money back...wait, the Twins lucked out with Toski, didn't they).

 

Is Santana worth a $5 million P.R. contract in which he might pitch a game or too...he was vastly underpaid in his earlier stint with the team.

 

And then, you have to look at players for worth -- longterm or marketability or trade value. The Twins do a bad job on the trade value, at times (flip Delmon Young earlier than they did, same with Liriano). Often the Twins hold onto pieces just a tad too long.

 

Yes, it is hard work being a general manager.

[Monkeypaws]

What about the light rail and the Coaster? Plenty of buses too. I had no trouble getting around there without a car. Probably different if you are living there as opposed to visiting.

[Twins Twerp]

Why are people getting in a tizzy over this move. It is known he wanted to stay close to his Las Vegas home and was looking at San Diego or LA teams. Even if we offered 14 mil for a year, he didn't want to go anywhere else.

 

Others have stated other obvious reasons such as picking a big park in NL team to reestablish his value for next winter.

[BigTrane]

My nominee for the 1-year turnaround would be The Gambler.

 

His numbers were up and down, and when he signed, he had bounced around a bit.

Really felt as though he was looking for a springboard, and the Twins were taking a shot.

He got the springboard.

 

After his 1-year shot with the Twins?

Lead the AL in GS the next season (35). Also:

3 All Stars, 2 Gold Gloves, 3 Postseason wins, including G2 '06 WS...

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Why are people getting in a tizzy over this move. It is known he wanted to stay close to his Las Vegas home and was looking at San Diego or LA teams. Even if we offered 14 mil for a year, he didn't want to go anywhere else.

 

Others have stated other obvious reasons such as picking a big park in NL team to reestablish his value for next winter.

 

The unfortunate part of this for Johnson is that he doesn't get to play the Padres now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It's hard to say getting a 1 year contract with the worst team in baseball (1990 - Twins were dead last) isn't exactly riding a success story.

 

Minor correction: the 1990 Twins were not the worst team in the AL, much less all of baseball. They finished last in their division, but the Yankees actually finished 8 games worse in the other division, and two teams had worse records than the Twins in the NL.

 

The Braves were the "truest" worst-to-first team, because they indeed had the worst record in all of MLB in 1990, and rebounded to first place in 1991.

[AlwaysinModeration]

While it appears that he wanted an NL team and the west coast, it also appears that the Twins weren't active in pursuit of him. Ryan said he liked him but that he wanted $10mm, and that wasn't going to happen. After hearing that, it seems like the Twins bowed out. Who knows if he would have considered Minnesota if they had made a run at him?

 

I'm not too upset, but it seems strange that we hear "willing to consider any one-year expense" and yet the pitcher with the highest upside available...is too rich at $10mm?

[Otto von Ballpark]

My nominee for the 1-year turnaround would be The Gambler

 

Rogers was a great signing, but he was coming off a really good season in 2002, and he followed it up with a slightly better season in 2004 too.

 

Really curious how we got him that year, actually. Was he holding out for more money? Was he thinking retirement? Did he want to leave Texas for a contender? He would up back in Texas the next year anyway for similar money....

[Otto von Ballpark]

I am pretty confident that Josh Johnson was not signing with the Twins -- he's very obviously trying to build his value for a big payday next winter. How much he earns in 2014 is of relatively little consequence to him.

 

That said, the $10 million comment by the Twins was a little disappointing. I mean, that's the shortest term deal possible, at clearly a market rate. A team in the Twins situation should be overjoyed if they could snag him for that.

[PseudoSABR]

That said, the $10 million comment by the Twins was a little disappointing. .

To be fair to the Twins, JJ did sign for less. Though it might have taken as much as that to get him to Minnesota, if not more.

 

That said, my hopefulness of catching a big fish is still rather muted.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Johnson signed for slightly less, but basically picked his league and city first, then signed well before winter meetings. Suggests he gave a discount there.

 

I will have to go back and look at the quote. The idea that $10m was just beyond the pale for Johnson does not give me a lot of hope for us in free agency....

[DaveW]

While it appears that he wanted an NL team and the west coast, it also appears that the Twins weren't active in pursuit of him. Ryan said he liked him but that he wanted $10mm, and that wasn't going to happen. After hearing that, it seems like the Twins bowed out. Who knows if he would have considered Minnesota if they had made a run at him?

 

I'm not too upset, but it seems strange that we hear "willing to consider any one-year expense" and yet the pitcher with the highest upside available...is too rich at $10mm?

 

Again, best case scenario is he earns that 10 million and then bounces for a 4-5 year deal the next year.

 

I am the biggest JJ supporter on this board, but frankly the Twins were never a good fit for him, nor was he a good fit for the Twins on a ONE year deal. If we could have got him for 2-3 years, then yeah I would be more upset.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Best case, he also nets them deadline prospects, a comp pick, or maybe a slight discount on a long term deal.

 

The Twins didn't have a shot at this particular player, but let's not pretend that he wouldn't have been a great acquisition. The Twins might be lucky to get one pitcher this offseason with the potential performance/payout of Johnson.

[howieramone1406390264]

Best case, he also nets them deadline prospects, a comp pick, or maybe a slight discount on a long term deal.

 

The Twins didn't have a shot at this particular player, but let's not pretend that he wouldn't have been a great acquisition. The Twins might be lucky to get one pitcher this offseason with the potential performance/payout of Johnson.

 

Let's not pretend the Twins were interested. Most teams in baseball have no interest in him because they are convinced his arm is going to fall off.

[Pius Jefferson]

Again, best case scenario is he earns that 10 million and then bounces for a 4-5 year deal the next year.

 

I am the biggest JJ supporter on this board, but frankly the Twins were never a good fit for him, nor was he a good fit for the Twins on a ONE year deal. If we could have got him for 2-3 years, then yeah I would be more upset.

 

Even with a good bounce back year in SD. I'd be surprised if JJ ever got more than three years because of the arm problems.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Let's not pretend the Twins were interested. Most teams in baseball have no interest in him because they are convinced his arm is going to fall off.

 

Twins do prefer health, but last year they broke from that to get Pelfrey and Worley. I think it's pretty clear the Twins stronger preference so far is "cheap".

 

I think most any GM in the game, with $30+ million to spend and 3 wide-open rotation spots, wouldn't mind a $10 million, one-year gamble on a 30 year old pitcher with legit ace upside who can pass a physical. Even if you never trust that pitcher's health enough to offer him another cent, that's a reasonable price for a potential deadline asset or extra comp pick.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Even with a good bounce back year in SD. I'd be surprised if JJ ever got more than three years because of the arm problems.

 

By the time he proves himself healthy again, he'll be too old to get anything longer than a three year deal.

 

So, yeah... Three years, tops.

[Otto von Ballpark]

By the time he proves himself healthy again, he'll be too old to get anything longer than a three year deal.

 

So, yeah... Three years, tops.

 

I'd generally agree, but he isn't even 30 years old yet (turns 30 in January). Not saying it's likely, but if he somehow managed to reproduce his 2009 or 2010 season next year, I think that would go a long way towards "proving" himself healthy again (if such a thing can ever be proved in one year) and making him a premier free agent next winter.

 

Plus, if his next contract will likely top out at 3 years, that would be even more incentive for a team to sign him for one year now. Potentially getting a head start or small discount on negotiating a less-risky 3 year extension is more valuable than getting the same for a more-risky 4-5 year extension, no?