My Blueprint

[TwinsTerritory]

After reading the offseason handbook, here is my plan. I'm sure Terry Ryan will follow it!

 

Off-Season Moves

1. 40 Man Roster

Remove: Albers, Hermsen, Fryer, Ramirez

Add: Polanco, Kepler, Vargas, Oliveros, Wimmers, Darnell

 

2. Offer arbitration to Duensing, Plouffe, and Swarzak.

 

3. Trade Eddie Rosario and Aaron Hicks to the Reds for Homer Bailey. Sign Bailey to a 5 year/$85 million contract.

 

4. Sign Phil Hughes to a 1 year/$9 million contract.

 

Opening Day Roster

C: Mauer (23M), Pinto (0.5M)

1B: Parmalee (0.5M), Collabello (0.5M)

2B: Dozier (0.5M)

SS: Florimon (0.5M), Escobar (0.5M)

3B: Plouffe (2M)

LF: Willingham (7M)

CF: Pressley (0.5M) Mastroianni (0.5M)

RF: Arcia (0.5M)

DH: Doumit (3.5M)

 

SP: Bailey (17M)

SP: Hughes (9M)

SP: Gibson (0.5M)

SP: Deduno (0.5M)

SP: Correia (5M)

 

RP: Perkins (3.75M)

RP: Burton (3.25M)

RP: Fien (0.5M)

RP: Duensing (2.5M)

RP: Thielbar (0.5M)

RP: Pressley (0.5M)

RP: Swarzak (1.3M)

Total Payroll: $84.3M

 

In Season Moves

1. Sano called up in June

2. Trade Burton, Doumit, and Willingham in July

3. Buxton, Meyer, and May called up in September

[ashbury]

4. Sign Phil Hughes to a 1 year/$9 million contract.

 

My guess is he'll accept the $33M three-year deal some other team offers. Do you match/raise?

[TwinsTerritory]

I really think he'll take a 1 year deal and try to raise his value to hit it big next year. I'm not a big fan of going 3 years. Maybe 1 year deal with some incentives and a player/team option for 2015. Think Liriano's deal, but more money.

[ashbury]

Not to harp, but are you saying a) he'll accept your $9M contract in preference to some other team's 3/$33M?, or no other team will offer remotely that much money (which is my own number, but not that far from TD's Offseason Handbook guess of 3/$30M)?

 

What better/longer deal do you think is the tops any of the other 29 teams will offer?

[TwinsTerritory]

If he can get 3/$33, he may very well take it. My thinking was that at age 27, he might be inclined to take a one year deal, hope to have a better year in a less homer-friendly ballpark, and try to get a 4-5 year contract (at a much higher yearly salary) next year at 28 years old. I guess it comes down to his belief in himself and his willingness to take a risk with a 1-year deal.

 

My $9 million dollar figure might be low. I'd be willing to offer $8-10 million with incentives that would allow him to earn up to $12 million.

[Oxtung]

I like your general approach. Try to sign a good pitcher to a long term contract. Sign a pitcher to a bounce back contract and perhaps trade him. Basically starting to improve the roster before the all the young guys are ready.

 

The only problem that I see is that Bailey is unlikely to sign an extension 1 season before hitting the open market with a team he isn't comfortable/familiar with. That is why the Reds are thinking about trading him. In support of this notion his agent is the wily Mr. Boras. So is your Bailey deal contingent upon an extension? What is your backup if that falls through?

[TwinsTerritory]

I didn't realize that Boras is his agent, so you're probably correct although I would argue that 5 years/$85 million is a pretty healthy offer considering that it would be buying out an arbitration year. I definitely wouldn't trade away top 10 prospects w/o an extension in place.

 

If Bailey isn't an option, I'd look to other younger (below 30) pitchers which I know would be hard to find. I don't think we can give up enough to get Price (Sano or Buxton would probably be necessary), although with the new TV money kicking in, I do think we could afford to give him a big extension. I know Brett Anderson was mentioned, but there is a big injury history there. Maybe John Lester or Johnny Cueto would be options if we gave up enough??

 

As far as Hughes goes, I think he would be a great fit for the Twins philosophy and ballpark. Things might go well and he might be willing to sign a longer deal, or perhaps we could trade him midseason. The Cubs have done a nice job of trading pitchers to stockpile prospects.

[TwinsTerritory]

Yovani Gallardo would also be an option, although it worries me that he has thrown a lot of innings for someone his age.

[goulik]

I REALLY like how you think. What about a FA position player... If you were upgrade by getting someone, who would you go after? We have the salary room still under your plan.

[Oxtung]

Good responses. I think Lester and Cueto are interesting names. Don't know if the Reds would part with both Cueto and Bailey in one season. They don't have much pitching depth in the minors ready. They have Stephenson but he is probably going to start 2014 at A+ or AA. The new manager might decide to move Chapman back to the rotation.

[ashbury]

Yovani Gallardo would also be an option, although it worries me that he has thrown a lot of innings for someone his age.

 

Scratching my head a little over this particular direction of analysis. Someone good enough to be brought up to the majors for good at age 23, and then takes the ball essentially every five days injury free for five years, with a better than average ERA until a somewhat off-year this year (but an xFIP suggesting a bounce back)... and the innings are a red flag? He's thrown a lot of innings because he's pretty good.

[TwinsTerritory]

Yeah, probably not any particularly strong analytical point, more of a gut feeling when it comes to Gallardo. I've watched a bunch of his starts over the past few years and while he would clearly be an upgrade over what the Twins are running out on the mound I really like Bailey more.

[TwinsTerritory]

I REALLY like how you think. What about a FA position player... If you were upgrade by getting someone, who would you go after? We have the salary room still under your plan.

 

I guess a lot depends on what they do with Mauer. I personally think he will continue to catch a majority of the time the next few years. Based on their current lineup and what appears to be coming from the minors, I guess I'd be most interested in upgrading at SS and 1B. I'm not a fan of Peralta or Drew and I think that Florimon is actually serviceable as a #9 hitter and solid defender. An upgrade at 1B would seem to make the most sense, but not a lot available there either. I think Napoli resigns with the Red Sox, which would leave Hart or Loney. I guess a 1 year deal plus incentives to Hart might make the most sense if they look to add a bat.

[stringer bell]

I guess a lot depends on what they do with Mauer. I personally think he will continue to catch a majority of the time the next few years. Based on their current lineup and what appears to be coming from the minors, I guess I'd be most interested in upgrading at SS and 1B. I'm not a fan of Peralta or Drew and I think that Florimon is actually serviceable as a #9 hitter and solid defender. An upgrade at 1B would seem to make the most sense, but not a lot available there either. I think Napoli resigns with the Red Sox, which would leave Hart or Loney. I guess a 1 year deal plus incentives to Hart might make the most sense if they look to add a bat.

I suspect Hart remains in Milwaukee, at a discount. The position player I think the Twins should go at hard is Kendrys Morales. He is a DH/1B, who has remained healthy the last two years, a switch-hitter equally strong from both sides of the plate, and he is "only" 30. If the Twins were to make Mauer the everyday 1B, Morales could easily slide into the DH role, if not, he could play 1B regularly until the Twins come up with a replacement bat . I am on record that Mauer should be moved to first, in which case Morales would be primarily a DH.

[TwinsTerritory]

I wouldn't be opposed to adding Morales. I've seen different estimates for his next contract that vary from 2/24 up to 4/48. I'm not sure I'd want to go 4 years for him with the possibility that Mauer and Sano might end up having to play 1B/DH.