Article: Free Agent Pitcher Profile: Ervin Santana

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2438-Free-Agent-Pitcher-Profile-Ervin-Santana

[pierre75275]

Even at the cost he is much cheaper then Tanaka. I think the twins really need him. And then they need at least one of Kazmir Jimenez, Haren, Johnson

[Brandon]

I hope the Twins go after either Santana or Ubaldo. I am getting worried that the Twins will just sign Pelfry and Yoon and call it a day keeping the financial commitment to a minimum.

[SpitefulRabbit617]

The Twin Cities needs the Twin Santanas this offseason. Johan and Ervin. Then throw in Haren or someone.

[acrozelle]

This is the one pitcher that I would really like the Twins to pursue and I would be ecstatic if they sign him. I know he is going to be pricey, but I think he would be worth it. I wouldn't be mad if the Twins even overpay a little bit just to ensure they land him. Like Nick said, overall Santana has been pretty consistent, and I think it's been stated over a million times on this site that the Twins need a consistent presence in the rotation that they can actually count on every 5th day. Santana can provide that.

 

That being said, I would be shocked if the Twins actually dished out the money required to sign him.

[TopGunn#22]

After last season's major disappointment, I'll believe it when I see it when it comes to Terry Ryan and Dave St. Peter & Co. E. Santana makes waaay too much sense and fits waaay to well into the void we call our starting rotation. You have to be "somewhat" sensible, but the last thing the Twins FO should be concerned about is cost.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Ervin Santana is very interesting -- I didn't immediately think of him as a front-line guy, but he's been pretty good and also he's been very durable -- not just starts, but also innings (almost 30 more innings than Ubaldo Jimenez last year, in the same number of starts). I wish the Twins would have nabbed him last year.

 

Santana's K rate, while it would look great on the Twins, didn't go up last year, as compared to Jimenez and Sanchez who both saw huge K rate jumps pitching in the same division. Should that be a concern?

[Shane Wahl]

Ervin's birth name was Johan. FYI.

[Shane Wahl]

Quick thing:

 

Santana's three full seasons of badness have been when his homer rate jump a bunch. His career average is 1.2 per nine. It was 1.6, 1.5, and 2.0 in those three seasons. The hit rate went up too, of course, but some of that is obviously the long ball.

 

It is interesting to consider TF for him, then.

[Thrylos]

Santana's K rate, while it would look great on the Twins, didn't go up last year, as compared to Jimenez and Sanchez who both saw huge K rate jumps pitching in the same division. Should that be a concern?

 

Devil's advocate:

this is the same division the Twins are playing. The Twins saw huge increase in hitters striking out; 1430 in 2013 from 1069 in 2012. Chicken or egg type of situation, but I don't think that these 2 things are unrelated...

[Thrylos]

Quick thing:

 

Santana's three full seasons of badness have been when his homer rate jump a bunch. His career average is 1.2 per nine. It was 1.6, 1.5, and 2.0 in those three seasons. The hit rate went up too, of course, but some of that is obviously the long ball.

 

It is interesting to consider TF for him, then.

 

This is what common sense might indicate. On the other hand, check out the Twins' SP HR/FB ratio. For several it is up in the 14-15 range, which is close to where his were in his bad years. This number should really be under 10. And, officially, the park factor of TF is 100 (league average) the last couple seasons.

[Shane Wahl]

This is what common sense might indicate. On the other hand, check out the Twins' SP HR/FB ratio. For several it is up in the 14-15 range, which is close to where his were in his bad years. This number should really be under 10. And, officially, the park factor of TF is 100 (league average) the last couple seasons.

 

Fair enough. What is Anaheim's stadium's PF?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Devil's advocate:

this is the same division the Twins are playing. The Twins saw huge increase in hitters striking out; 1430 in 2013 from 1069 in 2012. Chicken or egg type of situation, but I don't think that these 2 things are unrelated...

 

I understand that K's have jumped league-wide, and notably for at least one team in our division.

 

That's why it seemed odd that Ervin Santana's K rate remained constant in 2013, and basically unchanged as far back as 2009. Shouldn't it have gone up, like the rest of the league?

 

I recall reading that the Royals made some big changes in the last year in terms of defensive positioning -- so some of those non-K outs he recorded in 2013 could disappear if he comes to the Twins...

[Otto von Ballpark]

This is what common sense might indicate. On the other hand, check out the Twins' SP HR/FB ratio. For several it is up in the 14-15 range, which is close to where his were in his bad years. This number should really be under 10. And, officially, the park factor of TF is 100 (league average) the last couple seasons.

 

That's OPS park factor.

 

If you look at HR park factor at ESPN, Target Field has always slightly to severely favored the pitcher in terms of HR outside of 2012, when it leaned slightly to the offense:

 

2013 MLB Park Factors - Home Runs - Major League Baseball - ESPN

 

Of course, the Angels ballpark (and the Royals park in 2013) has similarly favored the pitcher in terms of HR.