2014 blueprint

[twinsajsf]

Rotation:

1. Sign Kazmir 3/$35-40M

2. Sign Hughes or Feldman @ 2/$20M

3. Deduno

4. Correia

5. Gibson

-----------

Diamond/Worley for competition/injury

 

Lineup:

CF Presley/Hicks (placeholders for Buxton)

2B Dozier

1B Mauer

RF Sign Nelson Cruz 2/$26M

LF Arcia

DH Willingham

3B Plouffe (placeholder for Sano)

C Pinto

SS Florimon

[Siehbiscuit]

For all the pitching talk, a few of you made some very good points in regards to the lineup being awful.

 

Willingham (LF), Doumit (DH), 1B and 3B are all positions where you must have good hitters. I understand Florimon at SS, because his defense really is very good. I can live with that. Dozier is solid, not great at 2B. He's definitely not a problem area.

 

But going into the season with only Parmalee, Colabello and Plouffe as the 1B and 3B options is asking for a poor lineup. At least Willingham and Doumit have had multiple strong seasons and could bounce back. Outside of Plouffe's one month a few years back, none of these three have done anything to deserve having the job handed to them. Sano is on his way, so don't splurge in FA. But 1B is a huge need area and needs to be addressed to make this lineup at all productive again.

 

Arcia will improve. Hicks needs to earn his promotion from AAA. I wouldn't be opposed to signing an OF either.

[Siehbiscuit]

Also, I think Worley will earn a rotation spot in ST. He was a good pitcher with the Phillies and for whatever reason the wheels came flying off this year. He'll bounce back. Scott Diamond? not so much.

[Craig in MN]

 

Net left to spend: $70 Million.

 

$70 million plus most of this pen, plus Mauer, Arcia, Dozier and a few others as a core (and I don't even mind Willingham or Plouffe as platoon DH) can build a champion.

 

But are the Twins willing to do it? Does this front office actually have a. the guts and b. the talent to do it?

 

It's reasonable to doubt what they will do. I think an important thing to consider when comparing this year's offseason to every other one in Twins management' history, is their long term financial flexibility. They have never spent wildly on the free agent market, but they have always had contracts and upcoming contract concerns that go a few years in the future.

 

They've got $49 committed for 2014, and $27 million committed for 2015 and less for 2016. There will be some arbitration raises, but not really all that much, unless a couple of poor starting pitchers suddenly become awesome. It is practically impossible for the Twins to get close to bumping up against their financial limits without adding $50+ million/yr in contracts for those next 3 years. I'm not sure they've ever had half that much available for that long before. They can spend a big chunk without handcuffing themselves.

 

 

My plan would involve bringing in a few starting pitchers, and one good offensive player.....with a couple of those being medium length contracts. That would give them 2 players to build with for the future but keeping some financial flexibility for a signing next year or a trade later if they somehow are competitive sooner:

 

Sign Mike Morse - OF/1b/DH. He can rotate around to keep everyone in the lineup. He's a good clubhouse guy, which seems like they've be eager to add. Since Willingham & Doumit would be FAs after 2014, they could even sign him for multiple years without creating any obvious issues. Best guess: 3 yrs, $16 million

Trade for Wandy Rodriguez - SP. He's really good and only guaranteed one year, but could earn a qualifying offer or extension or be traded if he stays healthy. I'd guess Pittsburgh would want some cheap pitching depth or offense, so I'd offer someone like Worley, Diamond, Albers, or Hendriks for him and some cash. Best guess: 1 yr, $12 million, trade for Worley.

Sign Ricky Nolasco - SP 4 yrs, 52 million. I think he's got a good chance of having a sub-4 ERA for the Twins. There are a bunch of other FA starters that would fit this role too. Basically, this is slot for "sign the best starter you can reasonable get to a mid-term deal" , and he's the name I came up with and a generous enough offer that he'd almost certainly sign.

Sign Jeff Neiman - SP -1 yr 2million. He's been injured a ton, but he's was great when he's pitched, and would have another year of arbitration available in 2015.

 

 

Likely Roster:

Mauer, Pinto, Doumit, Morse, Dozier, Florimon, Plouffe, Arcia, Pressley, Willingham, Mastroianni, Parmalee, Escobar. That seems like an offense with some potential and some depth and some platoon options....Parmalee stays because he is out of options and can pinch hit for Plouffe. (Collabello, Herman, or Romero would be the next guys up, especially if Arcia or Pinto end up at AAA...and Sano of course would the next player for force his way on the team).

Rodriguez, Nolasco, Correia, Deduno, Gibson (Neiman/Hendriks/Diamond/Albers/Myers)

Perkins, Burton, Fein, Duensing, Theilbar, Swarzak, Hendriks (Pressly, Tonkin, Ibarra, Achter, Hernande,).

 

Payroll stays about the same as this year, but the rotation is notably better, and Arcia, Pinto, & Sano have a chance to push the offense to be better too. For 2015, Willingham & Doumit are Free agents, but Buxton, Sano, Arcia and Pinto are likely on the team, and Parmalee, Plouffe, Pressley, etc fill could where needed.

[Shane Wahl]

How many games will these teams win; enough to challenge Detroit for the division or get a wild-card spot? Will they move deep into the post-season?

 

if the answer to the first one is no, I'd rather have them look for 2015 and beyond. Capuano will be 36 years old. He is on the decline phase. Even if the Twins decide (*) to not complete in 2014, they can sign younger FAs (like Hughes) who will be part of a potential future competitive team. A Capuano signing will be lots like the Correia signing.

 

 

(*) Decide because the Twins have the $ to spend and be competitive:

2013 Revenue: $215 million; 2014 broadcasting $: $35 million = $250 million

(promised) 52% of that is $130 million. Actual projected as is spend = $60 million (with arbitration awards).

 

Net left to spend: $70 Million.

 

$70 million plus most of this pen, plus Mauer, Arcia, Dozier and a few others as a core (and I don't even mind Willingham or Plouffe as platoon DH) can build a champion.

 

But are the Twins willing to do it? Does this front office actually have a. the guts and b. the talent to do it?

 

Not sure there...

 

So how do you successfully spend $70 million if that is the agenda (I said if I were the GM, no the owner)?

 

There are 29 other teams competing. It seems difficult to throw that kind of money out unless you have LeBron-Bosh-Wade kind of collusion. For $70 million I guess you can get Santana and Jimenez, and then Ellsbury or Choo plus Morales.

 

But really? How likely is that unless they all sat down together and were convinced that *together* they make the Twins viable.

 

Anyway, I see zero possibility of this team contending for the playoffs. That isn't the point. The point is to move toward 2015.

[Shane Wahl]

Rotation:

1. Sign Kazmir 3/$35-40M

2. Sign Hughes or Feldman @ 2/$20M

3. Deduno

4. Correia

5. Gibson

-----------

Diamond/Worley for competition/injury

 

Lineup:

CF Presley/Hicks (placeholders for Buxton)

2B Dozier

1B Mauer

RF Sign Nelson Cruz 2/$26M

LF Arcia

DH Willingham

3B Plouffe (placeholder for Sano)

C Pinto

SS Florimon

 

Nelson Cruz will not be had for 2 and 26, nor will Hughes for 2 and 20. Feldman, yes. Also, Nelson Cruz is an abomination in the field. FYI.

[Shane Wahl]

If Hicks makes the 25 man to begin the year, I quit. If he's promoted from AAA with anything less than a .700 OPS, I quit.

 

So, is *anyone* going to ever answer my question? Name another player who skipped AAA and then was asked to be the leadoff hitter? Also, Hick's OPS after April is about .700.

 

WHY waste any more time with filler? Presley in CF and Willingham in left? That's the plan?

[Shane Wahl]

For all the pitching talk, a few of you made some very good points in regards to the lineup being awful.

 

Willingham (LF), Doumit (DH), 1B and 3B are all positions where you must have good hitters. I understand Florimon at SS, because his defense really is very good. I can live with that. Dozier is solid, not great at 2B. He's definitely not a problem area.

 

But going into the season with only Parmalee, Colabello and Plouffe as the 1B and 3B options is asking for a poor lineup. At least Willingham and Doumit have had multiple strong seasons and could bounce back. Outside of Plouffe's one month a few years back, none of these three have done anything to deserve having the job handed to them. Sano is on his way, so don't splurge in FA. But 1B is a huge need area and needs to be addressed to make this lineup at all productive again.

 

Arcia will improve. Hicks needs to earn his promotion from AAA. I wouldn't be opposed to signing an OF either.

 

If you have some sort of post 2014 plan that involves Willingham and Doumit, then go ahead. Otherwise, paying and playing declining players is obviously silly and ridiculous. Any value in return is good. And it also gives several hundred more plate appearances to players potentially in the future for the Twins? Imagine that?

[#24 Sano]

I pray Ellsbury just magically appears on this roster with Tanaka magically appearing in the rotation. I think they would look good in the twins pinstripes. That's all I'm asking, please no more rumours of nishioka like players (Yoon) coming to Minnesota.

[The Wise One]

So, is *anyone* going to ever answer my question? Name another player who skipped AAA and then was asked to be the leadoff hitter? Also, Hick's OPS after April is about .700.

 

WHY waste any more time with filler? Presley in CF and Willingham in left? That's the plan?

 

Answer to the *question* is it was a while ago and the name escapes me.

IIRC you didn't much care for last winter's pitcher signing yet advocate Capuano. Your question about organizational filler seems appropriate.

[goulik]

The point is "if I was GM" I have my blueprint, Shane has his, others are in the handbook, and others have been posted. If you don't like ours, post your own.

 

I think we should spend big with some 2-3 year contracts that can be traded or come off the books when young guys emerge and need to get paid, Longer if it is a hole in the system and we can lock up a younger FA long term.

 

I agree with Shane that there is no reason to slow down future Twins from coming up and taking their lumps next year because if we slow them down, they take their lumps in 2015 and we have two more non playoff years instead of one more. Let's shorten these off years, get these young guys going and supplement them with FA "winners". Play we'll next year though we don't quite make the playoffs due to youthfulness but are primes for a BIG run in 2015.

[Reider]

goilik, I agree with you about spending some $. The Twins have been cutting payroll for 3 years now. Most of the veterans of years past are gone or will be gone after this year. Payroll is getting close to half of what it was in 2010 and these young guys are slowly making their way up. It wouldn't hurt the Twins to sign a couple of guys this off season and perhaps a couple more next off season.

 

I don't mind guys like Hicks playing in the MLB if they earn it. If they come up and fail, then so be it. Send them back down for a while. Fans need to understand that it takes time. Revere got sent down a few times, then one time something just clicked. He came back up and started playing the way he needed to.

 

As far as making a big run in 2015. That might be a bit optimistic looking at the team right now, but add a few pieces this season, a few next off season and perhaps some of these young guys step up and you never know. I'm guessing it'll be at least 2016 before the Twins field any sort of competitive team, but you never know. 2015 would be nice.

[twinsajsf]

Nelson Cruz will not be had for 2 and 26, nor will Hughes for 2 and 20. Feldman, yes. Also, Nelson Cruz is an abomination in the field. FYI.

 

We'll have to agree to disagree on Hughes. For what it's worth, Steve Adams at mlbtraderumors has done a pretty good job with FA contract projections, and he just predicted 1/$8M for Hughes. I do think he will be had for 2/$20M. Cruz will get a qualifying offer, lowering the market for him slightly, but upon further consideration, he will likely get 3 yrs., and to come to a non-contender would likely require the 1-yr. qualifying amount ($14M) per year, so let's say 3/$42. And yes, like Willingham, he's terrible in the field, so depending on the progress of Buxton/Hicks, maybe he moves to DH for 2015/16 when Willy is gone.

[Han Joelo]

I also agree with goulik. Sign some veteran "winners" to help change the clubhouse culture and mentor the next wave.

 

Just dreaming, but how about Tim Hudson, Juan Uribe, and Napoli? Plus Tanaka...

[Shane Wahl]

We'll have to agree to disagree on Hughes. For what it's worth, Steve Adams at mlbtraderumors has done a pretty good job with FA contract projections, and he just predicted 1/$8M for Hughes. I do think he will be had for 2/$20M. Cruz will get a qualifying offer, lowering the market for him slightly, but upon further consideration, he will likely get 3 yrs., and to come to a non-contender would likely require the 1-yr. qualifying amount ($14M) per year, so let's say 3/$42. And yes, like Willingham, he's terrible in the field, so depending on the progress of Buxton/Hicks, maybe he moves to DH for 2015/16 when Willy is gone.

 

Yeah, I just saw that about Hughes. I find it to be a bizarre prediction. The guys here have predicted 3 years and $30 million. Mlbtraderumors is rather low in all of the predictions, especially given the new TV money.

 

Cruz is 33, inept in the outfield, and is about the opposite of the kind of guy I would want to add to the clubhouse.

[Shane Wahl]

Answer to the *question* is it was a while ago and the name escapes me.

IIRC you didn't much care for last winter's pitcher signing yet advocate Capuano. Your question about organizational filler seems appropriate.

 

I don't advocate for Capuano being the top signing. I have him second in my "more realistic" scenario because there is no way the Twins are going to buy two better pitchers. In my real scenario, he is the third signing. I am not sure what is wrong with that, especially given the fact that in that scenario I am trading away Correia and mention trading Capuano at the deadline if he has a good year!

[Siehbiscuit]

Shane, I think everyone knows this is your thread, so you can stop defending yourself everytime someone disagrees. I personally don't think dumping veterans (Willingham and Doumit) for never-will-be's is worth anything to this organization. I would roll the dice that until there is a better power-hitting RH on the roster or ready to EARN a promotion, I am not dumping Willingham. His value can only rise and he is blockig NOBODY. Disagreeing is healhy and natural, but don't cut everyone down that has a different idea or philosophy.

[Rosterman]

Deduno is an aging rookie. If he throws anything great, market the heck out of him to a contender. I don't really see him in the long range plans. Unless no one else wants him. Then, he hangs iun the rotation until he's replaced by others. He has some uniqueness, and is cheap for a couple of years, but if you can get value out of him, do it. The other reason to give Parmelee and Plouffe a shot again in 2014 bigtime. If they gain any value, take offers. Willingham may have his most value if he has a good spring and a team gets an injury and has a need for a power-hitting OF/DH. And Doumit would be a great choice for Texas. And, yes, the Twins need to market some relievers bigtime during the trade deadline -- Swarzak, Duensing, Burton, Fein should ALL be mnovable and replaceable by fresh young arms from the minors. Let them weardown at season's end for some other team.

[Shane Wahl]

Shane, I think everyone knows this is your thread, so you can stop defending yourself everytime someone disagrees. I personally don't think dumping veterans (Willingham and Doumit) for never-will-be's is worth anything to this organization. I would roll the dice that until there is a better power-hitting RH on the roster or ready to EARN a promotion, I am not dumping Willingham. His value can only rise and he is blockig NOBODY. Disagreeing is healhy and natural, but don't cut everyone down that has a different idea or philosophy.

 

This is that awkward moment where I respond to a post about not responding to every post . . .

 

I am not one to simple agree to disagree, so I welcome actual debate and enjoy argumentation. Sometimes argumentation leads to arriving at a truth or some truths!

[twinsajsf]

Yeah, I just saw that about Hughes. I find it to be a bizarre prediction. The guys here have predicted 3 years and $30 million. Mlbtraderumors is rather low in all of the predictions, especially given the new TV money.

 

Cruz is 33, inept in the outfield, and is about the opposite of the kind of guy I would want to add to the clubhouse.

 

Hmm . . . I had always heard positive accounts of Cruz as a "clubhouse guy" and teammate, so I did a little searching after reading your post, and again, all positives. Can you post a link to something negative, or are you basing it on his biogenesis suspension (i.e.--baggage of a different kind)?

 

I also did some searching on Hughes salary projections, adjusted for the Lincecum signing, and the HIGHEST projection I could find is the one you referenced (3/$30M), with several still lower in yrs/$'s, so 2/$20M still seems pretty realistic at this point. Of course, WE might have to add the extra year because we're a less attractive destination (see previous post re: Cruz).

[cwzimmerman]

So you think it's realistic that TR will sign two FA pitchers that cost more than 4 or 5 $million/year? That's awesome. After penny pinching on Pelfrey and Correia last year when there were other options out there, I really hope he opens the wallet a bit more this year.

 

I won't mind if Doumit and/or Willingham are traded away. I have lost confidence in Parmelee. He had a good September, what, three years ago? And hasn't really found any consistency since. Plouffe hit for some power two years ago, so I'm willing to give him another year. I'm also really hoping to see what Pinto can do next year. I'd give him a chance for sure.

 

I'd keep Deduno and Fien around next year. As for Burton, I really hope he improves from last year.

 

Realistically, I wouldn't trade Deduno away if it meant being left with 3 pitchers who weren't good enough last year (Gibson, Diamond, Worely) to hopefully fill in the last two spots. Heck, for the short time Albers was up, he was at least able to have a few solid performances. That said, I really hope Diamond has a bounce back year. That would be huge for the Twins, especially if they sign a couple of solid FA pitchers.

 

Despite his periodic bouts of wildness, I would hang on to Deduno. Even in the unlikely event that the Twins are able to sign two or more quality starters (depending on how we each define "quality"), he would still likely serve as a serviceable starter for the back end of the rotation. Everything else being equal, I don't think he's done anything to not deserve an opportunity to be in the starting rotation to open the season.

[Shane Wahl]

Hmm . . . I had always heard positive accounts of Cruz as a "clubhouse guy" and teammate, so I did a little searching after reading your post, and again, all positives. Can you post a link to something negative, or are you basing it on his biogenesis suspension (i.e.--baggage of a different kind)?

 

I also did some searching on Hughes salary projections, adjusted for the Lincecum signing, and the HIGHEST projection I could find is the one you referenced (3/$30M), with several still lower in yrs/$'s, so 2/$20M still seems pretty realistic at this point. Of course, WE might have to add the extra year because we're a less attractive destination (see previous post re: Cruz).

 

What is funny about me is that I believe I said a month or so ago that the Twins should sign Hughes for 2 years and $22 million or something like that. Maybe I have been swayed by the TD prediction. I think the Lincecum deal is instructive, however. I think Hughes' salary expectation has to move towards that. So 2 and $28 was my newest 2 year prediction for him. I then was persuaded by others that two years was an unrealistic expectation, so that is why I went with 3 years.

[Shane Wahl]

I think Deduno has some trade value. He had an ERA+ of 106 last year in his limited time. If he were a free agent, he would certainly get some good-monied contract.

[Wookiee of the Year]

I also did some searching on Hughes salary projections, adjusted for the Lincecum signing, and the HIGHEST projection I could find is the one you referenced (3/$30M), with several still lower in yrs/$'s, so 2/$20M still seems pretty realistic at this point. Of course, WE might have to add the extra year because we're a less attractive destination (see previous post re: Cruz).

I wondered about that some with the Offseason Handbook--some of the Twins Daily guys have referenced the idea that it'll cost the Twins more to attract guys than it might another team, so I do wonder if some of that was baked into those contract estimates. i.e. Those are estimates of what the Twins would have to pay to sign a guy, not necessarily projections for each player's actual contract.

[Shane Wahl]

I don't think MLBTR did a Lincecum estimate, did they? I wish we could see it as a comparison to reality.

[big dog]

So, is *anyone* going to ever answer my question? Name another player who skipped AAA and then was asked to be the leadoff hitter? Also, Hick's OPS after April is about .700.

 

WHY waste any more time with filler? Presley in CF and Willingham in left? That's the plan?

 

I believe that Jim Eisenreich went from Wis Rapids (A) in 1981 to Opening Day leadoff hitter and centerfielder for the Twins in 1982. He had an OPS of .803 until he was shut down because of his medical condition.

 

Of course, playing for the Twins in 1982 was not really being in the major leagues, but at least he faced MLB pitchers.

[Shane Wahl]

I believe that Jim Eisenreich went from Wis Rapids (A) in 1981 to Opening Day leadoff hitter and centerfielder for the Twins in 1982. He had an OPS of .803 until he was shut down because of his medical condition.

 

Of course, playing for the Twins in 1982 was not really being in the major leagues, but at least he faced MLB pitchers.

 

An answer!!! Thanks for that research. And the dude skipped AA too.

 

Lesson to be learned is chillax about Hicks, I think.

[golfboy1]

An answer!!! Thanks for that research. And the dude skipped AA too.

 

Lesson to be learned is chillax about Hicks, I think.

 

Kirby Puckett basically skipped AA. He started 1984 at AAA but was called up fairly soon & never looked back.

 

I'm not sure what your point is regarding Hicks skipping AAA. Admittedly, it's rare that someone does it AND succeeds. Hicks did not succeed & at this point I see no reason to hand him the job. I'd love to see him get off to a good start at AAA & force the Twins to call him up but I don't think they have any plans for him to open the season in the majors.

 

I like your idea for the Twins to go after Hughes on a 2 or 3 year deal. He has a chance to be a solid middle rotation guy. I'd prefer they take a chance on someone like Johnson instead of Capuano. I don't think Capuano is an improvement over what the Twins already have & he is getting older & injury prone.

 

I also like the idea of sending Pressley to AAA to start. The Twins need to explore every option they can to get good starting pitchers.

 

I don't have any problem trading Doumit but I don't think he will fetch anything close to Martinez.

[Brandon]

So, is *anyone* going to ever answer my question? Name another player who skipped AAA and then was asked to be the leadoff hitter? Also, Hick's OPS after April is about .700.

 

WHY waste any more time with filler? Presley in CF and Willingham in left? That's the plan?

 

Chuck Knoblauch

[Brandon]

What is funny about me is that I believe I said a month or so ago that the Twins should sign Hughes for 2 years and $22 million or something like that. Maybe I have been swayed by the TD prediction. I think the Lincecum deal is instructive, however. I think Hughes' salary expectation has to move towards that. So 2 and $28 was my newest 2 year prediction for him. I then was persuaded by others that two years was an unrealistic expectation, so that is why I went with 3 years.

 

www.mlbtraderumors.com is projecting 1 year 8 million for Hughes. i don't have the direct link but it was in there the other day so its not too far down. Also when have the Twins ever paid top dollar for a free agent. Anyone trying to guess offseason moves should start with that in mind. They may do 1 signing for a pitcher with our payroll availablitily to sell tickets but not likely. Pelfry, Yoon and Hughes should cost in the neighborhood of 2/16 Pelfry, 2/10 Yoon and 1/8-9 for Hughes Thats 34-35 million committed to starting pitching for This year and next. Short term contracts that wont handcuff the team when the big time prospects are up and ready to go.