Larry Corrigan Returns to the Twins

[snepp]

I know I'm probably walking into a hornets nest by getting on here but oh well.

 

 

If it makes you feel better, you won't be the only masochist here.

 

[glunn]

I wish that we could focus on issues that are in Jack's wheelhouse, such as the role of stats in making decisions and the role of other factors relative to stats. Many of the questions that are being asked seem to be questions that should be addressed to Terry Ryan, such as what was the game plan for 2013.

 

It is exciting to have a key member of the FO posting here and I think that it's natural for us all to be enthusiastic to the point of giddiness, but let's try not to overwhelm Jack with broad questions about big picture items.

[glunn]

Jack, I have a question that you might feel comfortable answering.

 

I am wondering whether there has ever been a time when someone in the front office brought up an idea that they got from reading Twins Daily or from reading the TD offseason handbook. I am not seeking details -- I am just wondering if TD has ever been helpful in providing an idea or two that seemed worth discussing, and whether anyone in the front office reads the annual handbook.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Jack, I have a question that you might feel comfortable answering.

 

I am wondering whether there has ever been a time when someone in the front office brought up an idea that they got from reading Twins Daily or from reading the TD offseason handbook. I am not seeking details -- I am just wondering if TD has ever been helpful in providing an idea or two that seemed worth discussing, and whether anyone in the front office reads the annual handbook.

 

If he says Mark DeRosa, you need to ban Dave permanently

[Riverbrian]

I think its awesome that Jack stopped by and shed some light.

 

Thanks For those much needed posts. I would love to see you stop by and keep us inline from time to time.

[Jack Goin]

Jack, I have a question that you might feel comfortable answering.

 

I am wondering whether there has ever been a time when someone in the front office brought up an idea that they got from reading Twins Daily or from reading the TD offseason handbook. I am not seeking details -- I am just wondering if TD has ever been helpful in providing an idea or two that seemed worth discussing, and whether anyone in the front office reads the annual handbook.

I get a copy of the Handbook every year and read through it and go back to it periodically. I tried to order it undercover the first year but Parker noticed the email address and outed me. Those guys put a lot of time and effort into that book, but also a lot of thought into their work year around.

I realize there are more ways to look at the game or a player than just my view. I look at a lot of blogs about baseball and about other teams that I read daily or when I'm looking up a prospect, or I see they have posted an interesting post via Twitter. There are a ton of knowledgeable people writing about this game and getting a little different perspective every now and again is good thing.

[Jack Goin]

Jack, thanks.

 

Nobody claimed it with words, but if you have a rotation like the 2012 Twins' rotation which a. was bad and b. lost its best piece to a trade, and its second best to free agency/retirement, one would assume that it was a part of the team that need fixing for the Twins to compete in 2013. And from the 2 MLB FAs signed, Correia was the one who was given the biggest contract, thus the "big FA signing".

 

Unless, the intention was not for the Twins to compete in 2013, in which case there are a lot of AAAA guys in the system who would pitch innings with the same overall result for the team.

 

The Twins had 2 clear choices after 2011 and 2012:

 

a. doing everything to put a competitive (*) team out there in 2013 and beyond

b. do a real rebuild looking forward to 2015-16 and not sing mediocre 30+ year olds who will not be on their primes in that future

 

But instead they made moves that looks like they were made for the sake of just making moves and resulted to nothing better.

 

This is where the issue is with most of the fans who are having issues with the front office moves last off-season. I just hope that something was learned there and this off-season is better.

 

 

(*) where competitive = world series contender.

You and I just going to have to disagree on this one. Signing veteran players, even if you are rebuilding, is a necessity sometimes to allow your prospects to continue their development path in the Minor Leagues.

[stringer bell]

How do you rebuild a rotation? Look at Cleveland last year. Two starters with pretty big upsides--Jiminez and Masterson--pitched much closer to their ceiling than their floor. They gambled on a rehab project (bought a lottery ticket) and won with Kazmir and filled the rest of their rotation with their own prospects. The Tribe had a pretty good bullpen to draw to and markedly improved their pitching.

 

What can the Twins learn from this? I guess you don't give up on good arms. Research your "lottery tickets" and develop from within. The biggest difference between the Twins and Tribe is that of the pitchers who have had success (I'll say Correia, Diamond, and Worley) none have as big an upside as Masterson or Ubaldo.

 

I think the Twins should sign one highly sought starter. Ubaldo, Hughes, or maybe Feldman to what Ryan surely would consider a "monster contract"--three or more years for more than Willingham is making. They need to also high a high-reward guy, perhaps Johnson or maybe Pelfrey, as well for their lottery ticket. Beyond that, I think they have a lot of candidates to fill out the rotation. To succeed like Cleveland did, they need to "hit" on their free agent signings and have Gibson develop and Diamond or Worley bounce back.

[Mike Sixel]

I just want to say, again, thanks for stopping by Jack. Appreciated.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Thanks Mr. Goin for stopping by.

 

I'm pretty sure posts about rebuilding strategy aren't really germane to Mr. Goin's work with the Twins, so let's try to avoid re-hashing that discussion, okay? Same with specifics about players and contract offers and negotiations. Let's try to focus the discussion on areas that he knows and information he can provide.

 

If you are still reading, Mr. Goin, here are a couple of questions for you:

 

1) Has the composition of your staff changed from last offseason when you talked to Parker? I think it was just you and an intern then. (Asked as a Twins fan and possible job seeker )

 

2) What's the status of PITCHf/x being added to Twins minor league parks?

 

3) What's the status of FIELDf/x? I remember hearing about it being installed in San Francisco a few years ago, curious about its status for Target Field (or MLB-wide).

[ashbury]

1) Has the composition of your staff changed from last offseason when you talked to Parker? I think it was just you and an intern then. (Asked as a Twins fan and possible job seeker )

 

A related question: what advice would you give someone young who has an interest in the field of baseball analytics eventually as more than just a hobby? Say, I don't know, somebody's son who is currently a junior in college and majoring in statistics? (Just to be clear, he's at school in Seattle and thus anything useful you suggest would cause him to pester the poor Mariners, not you.)

[Jack Goin]

A related question: what advice would you give someone young who has an interest in the field of baseball analytics eventually as more than just a hobby? Say, I don't know, somebody's son who is currently a junior in college and majoring in statistics? (Just to be clear, he's at school in Seattle and thus anything useful you suggest would cause him to pester the poor Mariners, not you.)

keep up to date on what is going on in baseball news. watch and study the game as much as possible. read Fangraphs, Beyond the Boxscore, Hardball Times, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Solutions.org, Baseball Analytics.org, Baseball America & of course Twins Daily. Go to tangotiger.com everyday. Tom throws out projects for aspiring analytic people all the time. Submit your work to the Community Research page on Fangraphs. Learn SQL, R, Python, etc. Find your niche. Apply for internships. Baseball Ops, Minor League video, etc. Work for his college baseball team if he isn't playing. Familiarize himself with the Major League waiver & option rules. Read the CBA if he can find a copy of it. Learn Spanish or another language (Japanese, Korean, possibly Portuguese). Law school if he so desires. Be prepared to do multiple internships. Pay attention to developments in the business world as well. How are other businesses being run and is there anything that can be implemented in the sports world. He is a statistics major so monitor development in academic research in statistics, math, computer science, big data.

I know that's a bunch of information. I hope it helps. Breaking in is difficult but once you get in it is SO much fun to try to win a World Series.

[Jack Goin]

I just want to say, again, thanks for stopping by Jack. Appreciated.

How much do you want to give Ellsbury or Choo?

[Squirrel]

keep up to date on what is going on in baseball news. watch and study the game as much as possible. read Fangraphs, Beyond the Boxscore, Hardball Times, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Solutions.org, Baseball Analytics.org, Baseball America & of course Twins Daily. Go to tangotiger.com everyday. Tom throws out projects for aspiring analytic people all the time. Submit your work to the Community Research page on Fangraphs. Learn SQL, R, Python, etc. Find your niche. Apply for internships. Baseball Ops, Minor League video, etc. Work for his college baseball team if he isn't playing. Familiarize himself with the Major League waiver & option rules. Read the CBA if he can find a copy of it. Learn Spanish or another language (Japanese, Korean, possibly Portuguese). Law school if he so desires. Be prepared to do multiple internships. Pay attention to developments in the business world as well. How are other businesses being run and is there anything that can be implemented in the sports world. He is a statistics major so monitor development in academic research in statistics, math, computer science, big data.

I know that's a bunch of information. I hope it helps. Breaking in is difficult but once you get in it is SO much fun to try to win a World Series.

 

Yikes ... that seems even harder to get into than the classical music world. Glad I left my math major in the dust all those years ago to focus on music!

[Jack Goin]

And even if they just wanted to "get through the year", BJ Hermsen, Liam Hendriks, PJ Walters, Samuel Deduno, Sairon Martis, Vance Worley, Andrew Albers, Scott Diamond, Pedro Hernandez, Kyle Gibson, Cole DeVries et al. are plenty enough to "get through the year" with pretty much the same results, without having to have a fifth starter in a good team (Correia) as your first or second starter in 2014 as well...

Obviously we were not able to get through the year with the above mentioned pitchers. This is why pitchers like Correia and Pelfrey were necessary. Veterans who can at least take the ball every 5th day and give you 5 or 6 innings.

If you knew Andrew Albers was going to pitch in the big leagues this year I'm thinking you should be a VP of Player Personnel somewhere.

[Mike Sixel]

Phew, tough question, Jack. Not having the info you all do.....

 

1. I don't see a lot of money that needs to go to current players. I am hoping for a good FA starter....I would also unload Doumit for whatever you can get, to free up money. I'd consider the same for Willingham, if the money goes to Choo or Ellsbury. That would leave 30-40MM to spend to get to 90MM, which I feel is reasonable, especially with the new tv money. IMO, these two players are the most sure free agents on the market, and while expensive, are more likely to return value than any SP. I also don't think "having too many" OFers is an issue. If it works, and the young guys all work, deal someone.

 

2. Choo should be cheaper than Ellsbury. I'd probably go $13-15MM per for Choo, for 4-6 years. I see Choo as the LFer with Buxton in CF in 1.5-2.5 years. He would also help whoever plays CF defensively this year (Hicks or Pressley). Arcia is either your future RF or DH/4th OFer, imo. Yes, you risk a declining player at the end of the contract, but that is true of any FA. Also, a decling MLB is more likely to be good than a random prospect just by the nature of the fact they have already succeeded in the majors.

 

3. While some point to Ellsbury's "injury history", it isn't all that real imo. He also shows zero sign of slowing down. I would put him in CF until Buxton is up, then move him to LF. He instantly upgrades your OF defense from below average to above average. With him and Buxton, your range is dramatically increased. I think he's going to be outrageously expensive. It is hard to even type these numbers.....$18-20MM per for 6 years. I don't think anyone gets him for less than that.

 

4. I don't know how the team counts its dollars.....but if they were really under budget this year, perhaps you can front load the salaries. As a finance guy, I understand why companies do not generally do this. But given inflation the last few years, and what is likely coming the next few, the argument loses some luster. So, if you could front load some of it for this year, that would likely increase your odds of signing the player.

 

thanks for asking....that's about 1/2 of what I would type if I wasn't in a boring meeting at work.....

[Mike Sixel]

And, I'm not sure either of those numbers is enough, alas.

[ashbury]

keep up to date on what is going on in baseball news. watch and study ...

 

Way more nuggets than I had any right to hope for. Thanks for the thoughts.

[Thrylos]

Obviously we were not able to get through the year with the above mentioned pitchers. This is why pitchers like Correia and Pelfrey were necessary. Veterans who can at least take the ball every 5th day and give you 5 or 6 innings.

If you knew Andrew Albers was going to pitch in the big leagues this year I'm thinking you should be a VP of Player Personnel somewhere.

 

I of course did not know that Albers was going to pitch in the big leagues. And I think that Albers pitching in the bigs is a reflection of the mess the Twins were last season

 

My point is: The Twins have had a whole bunch of replacement and few slightly better pitchers at the end of 2012. Like the above mentioned names. And then they signed a bunch of MiLB FAs.

 

Let's get the elephant in the room out: The Twins were not going to compete last season (2013).

 

Why sign Correia to a two year contract? Couldn't Pedro Hernandez or PJ Walters or Liam Hendriks or BJ Hermsen (all on the 40 man roster on opening day) handle those innings?

Or why not throw a kid like Meyer out there, like the Cardinals did with Wacha?

 

And whether someone pitches 5 or 6 innings, barring injury, is totally manager's choice. I know that this manager (and his pitching coach) likes to make lots of pitching moves and are not willing to let non-veterans pitch through trouble. (This is a different story.)

 

So what if the Twins lost 103 instead of 96 games if Correia was not signed? In a rebuilding year.

[ashbury]

So what if the Twins lost 103 instead of 96 games

 

I am interested in a non-rhetorical version of this question, and more generally would like to ask Jack if he's able to tell us whether he has been tasked to look at the business side of things as well as player evaluations. For example, airlines and hotels have expertise by now in a well-developed field of Revenue Management (or Operations Research, more generally) - do the Twins engage in anything that might fall into that category?

[jokin]

OK, here are most of the pitchers that were in that group. I might have missed one or two. John Lannan? Anyhow, other than Feldman and Correia, not a lot was gotten in that price range. I think the Cubs signed Villanueva to a similar deal but he spent most of the time in the bullpen (although I know some Twins fans talked him up). Anyhow, which high risk/reward guys was I missing? I guess Liriano?

 

Scott Feldman - Cubs - 1/6m, 12-12 105 ERA+, 181.2ip, 1.6 WAR

Kevin Correia 2/10m 9-13, 97 ERA+, 185.1ip, 1.6 WAR

Brandon McCarthy - DBacks - 2/15.5m - 5-11 84 ERA+, 135ip -0.2 WAR

Dan Haren - Nats - 1/13m - 10-14 81 ERA+, 169.2ip -0.1 WAR

Ryan Dempster - Bos -2/26.5m 8-9 89 ERA+, 171.1ip, -0.2 WAR

Joe Saunders - Seattle - 1/6.5m - 11-16, 70 ERA+, 183ip -0.3 WAR

Mike Pelfrey 1/4m 5-13, 78 ERA+, 152.2ip, -0.3 WAR

Shawn Marcum - Mets - 1/4m - 1-10 67 ERA+, 78.1ip -1.0 WAR

Joe Blanton Angels - 2/15m - 2-14 62 ERA+, 132.2ip -2.0 WAR

Scott Baker - Cubs - 1/5.5m 3 starts, 15ip. Missed most season w/injury

 

(This is bWAR but fWAR can be very different - according to them, Pelfrey was a 2 WAR pitcher this year).

 

 

Yes they can be very different:

 

Kevin Correia 1.3 fWAR

Shaun Marcum 1.3 fWAR

Dan Haren 1.5 fWAR

Brandon McCarthy 1.8 FWAR

Scott Feldman 2.1 fWAR

 

I'll take the higher-upside guys every time.

[jokin]

You and I just going to have to disagree on this one. Signing veteran players, even if you are rebuilding, is a necessity sometimes to allow your prospects to continue their development path in the Minor Leagues.

 

Todd Redmond was available, for free on the waiver wire, twice. If you were going to punt 2013 anyway, why not sign Redmond for the minimum....?....and then if you could flip a Correia or Pelfrey at the deadline, or if someone else inevitably faltered, you had a very capable, high-performing MiLB pitcher, with a high K/9 rate and terrific control?

[Major League Ready]

Todd Redmond was available, for free on the waiver wire, twice. If you were going to punt 2013 anyway, why not sign Redmond for the minimum....?....and then if you could flip a Correia or Pelfrey at the deadline, or if someone else inevitably faltered, you had a very capable, high-performing MiLB pitcher, with a high K/9 rate and terrific control?

 

So, did he get picked up by another team the second time around?