Article: The Tanaka Factor

[cmb0252]

From Keith Law's chat today:

 

Can you opine on Tanaka and if can potentially be as good as Darvish? Or do you not know enough about him to comment?

Klaw (1:17 PM)

 

 

 

He's not close to Darvish. No one from NPB is. The entire comparison is based on ethnicity/former league. Tanaka is more comparable to Kuroda.

Klaw (1:17 PM)

 

 

 

...but no one wants to say that because it's not as exciting. Tanaka is more like a mid-rotation guy here, but he'll be paid like he's much better than that.

 

Just wondering if that sort of evaluation makes anyone who has been suggesting the Twins be aggressive in the bidding process have second thoughts.

 

I don't think this should be new information to anyone. The scouting reports on Tanaka have always been a mid rotation guy with a chance to be a #2. The appeal about Tanaka is he will step right in and be our best starter, not cost a draft pick, and because he is so young he won't effect the rebuilding process. I would be happy to have 6 years of Kuroda production in the middle of our rotation.

[nicksaviking]

From Keith Law's chat today:

 

Can you opine on Tanaka and if can potentially be as good as Darvish? Or do you not know enough about him to comment?

Klaw (1:17 PM)

 

 

 

He's not close to Darvish. No one from NPB is. The entire comparison is based on ethnicity/former league. Tanaka is more comparable to Kuroda.

Klaw (1:17 PM)

 

 

 

...but no one wants to say that because it's not as exciting. Tanaka is more like a mid-rotation guy here, but he'll be paid like he's much better than that.

 

Just wondering if that sort of evaluation makes anyone who has been suggesting the Twins be aggressive in the bidding process have second thoughts.

 

I guess it probably depends on what is agressive. Teams would pay a lot of money to have Kuroda on their team. In fact, I'd guess if Kuroda was Tanaka's age and on the market now, he likely would have gotten the same or larger contract than Darvish did. $10-12 million per seems like it would be a bargain for a 24-year-old Kuroda.

[Jim Crikket]

I guess it probably depends on what is agressive. Teams would pay a lot of money to have Kuroda on their team. In fact, I'd guess if Kuroda was Tanaka's age and on the market now, he likely would have gotten the same or larger contract than Darvish did. $10-12 million per seems like it would be a bargain for a 24-year-old Kuroda.

 

Fair enough. I guess by "aggressive," I would say simply bidding enough to give you a high probability of winning the bid.

 

If most organizations see Tanaka as Law does, as a middle of the rotation guy, maybe that means the Twins' chances go up. I'm not sure how many teams would be willing to incur a huge up-front cost for the privilege of negotiating a deal for what would be, for them, a #3 starter.

 

If he would, indeed, immediately pencil in as the Twins' top starter, he might be worth more to the Twins than he would to other organizations.

 

I just don't think a posting bid comparable to what Darvish's rights went for makes much sense for any team if they're not getting a bona fide top of the rotation arm.

[cmb0252]

Fair enough. I guess by "aggressive," I would say simply bidding enough to give you a high probability of winning the bid.

 

If most organizations see Tanaka as Law does, as a middle of the rotation guy, maybe that means the Twins' chances go up. I'm not sure how many teams would be willing to incur a huge up-front cost for the privilege of negotiating a deal for what would be, for them, a #3 starter.

 

If he would, indeed, immediately pencil in as the Twins' top starter, he might be worth more to the Twins than he would to other organizations.

 

I just don't think a posting bid comparable to what Darvish's rights went for makes much sense for any team if they're not getting a bona fide top of the rotation arm.

 

If the new posting system gets put into place it could work to our favor too. We would only have to finish in the top 3 bids to have a chance to negotiate with Tanaka. This is a double edged sword though. This should decrease the size of the posting fees but increase the cost of contracts handed out because multiple teams will be able to negotiate with the player.

[Shane Wahl]

The Yankees are not going to care about the posting bid. So they will win by posting $50 or whatever million. They do care about salary and he is fairly cheap if in the 5-6 years and $55-66 million range.

[kab21]

I think that new posting system is a pipedream. Why would Japan agree to it since it could result in substantially lower winning bids?

[Jim Crikket]

I think that new posting system is a pipedream. Why would Japan agree to it since it could result in substantially lower winning bids?

 

Well, I'm no expert on international law (or much of any kind of law, for that matter), but my understanding has always been that MLB agreed to the current system in order to preclude having teams essentially treat the Japanese leagues as just another independent minor league and raid them for talent without any compensation at all.

 

I don't think anyone envisioned Japanese teams getting $50 million in a single posting fee and while the proposed new system may mean a bit less money going overseas as compensation, they won't see that money dry up completely. That's better than the alternative of having Japanese players simply able to negotiate with any/all 30 MLB teams with no compensation going to their former team at all.

[nicksaviking]

I think that new posting system is a pipedream. Why would Japan agree to it since it could result in substantially lower winning bids?

 

Because Japan fears that if they don't change it, the high profile teenagers are going to go straight to the MLB instead of sticking around Japan for a few years to develop.

 

A secondary concern is that MLB teams have the ability to screw everyone over by posting a large bid only to not make a good faith effort to reach an agreement with the player. The A's were accused of doing this with Iwakuma simply to keep rivals from signing him.

 

I think the bigger question is why would mid-market Midweast MLB teams agree to this. What high-profile Asian free agent is going to choose Minnesota or Kansas City?

[beckmt]

Twins still should take a chance here. Young controllable pitcher at a reasonable yearly cost. Hope the upfront fee does not stop them. Would bid up to a little over $50 million for his rights.

[Jim Crikket]

I think the bigger question is why would mid-market Midweast MLB teams agree to this. What high-profile Asian free agent is going to choose Minnesota or Kansas City?

 

Which leads to the question, "what makes you think Bud Selig or the major market teams that run MLB give a damn what the mid-market Midweast MLB teams will or won't agree to?"

 

The new proposal absolutely favors the big market teams. As virtually all decisions made by MLB do.

[kab21]

Because Japan fears that if they don't change it, the high profile teenagers are going to go straight to the MLB instead of sticking around Japan for a few years to develop.

 

Possibly but that high profile teenager is subject to the int'l signing rules and would get <5M guaranteed and then have to wait several years in the minors before making the MiLB min for 3 more years before hitting arb. Not exactly a quicker path to the big money.

[JB_Iowa]

I worry that even if the Twins are the high bidder on Tanaka, the Twins do not have other factors in place to maximize his success.

 

Looking back, when Kuroda went to the Dodgers, he was 33 years old, the Dodgers closer was Takashi Saito and Kuroda was not expected to anchor the rotation. The Dodgers also had Lowe & Billingsley and 20-year-old Clayton Kershaw as well as Brad Penny.

 

When Darvish went to the Rangers, they not only had the guru in charge (Nolan Ryan), they also had Matt Harrison and Derek Holland (plus Scott Feldman, Colby Lewis & Ryan Dempster). They also had Yoshinori Tateyama already in their system (and having made his major league debut).

 

Tanaka would pretty much be expected to anchor the Twins rotation plus would be the only Japanese player on the team at this point. Would that really maximize his possibility of success? Is he the right fit for the Twins? Are the Twins the right fit for him?

[Winston Smith]

Question, has Terry Ryan ever shown that he will (by actually doing it) spend a large amount of money on an International Free agent, Cuban or Asian player?

[Oxtung]

Possibly but that high profile teenager is subject to the int'l signing rules and would get <5M guaranteed and then have to wait several years in the minors before making the MiLB min for 3 more years before hitting arb. Not exactly a quicker path to the big money.

 

But perhaps the only path to the really big money. Ryu and Darvish are making good money but not great until their contract expires. They won't be FA's until they are 32 and 31 years old respectively. It seems unlikely they will be signed to one of the 7 to 8 year mega contracts that are currently the rage at that stage of their careers.

 

If a pitcher, like Darvish let's say, feels like he is going to be an absolute stud then financially it might make sense to come over early, work your way up through the minors and make it to arbitration. Certainly that is considerably more risky but the potential reward is also much greater.

 

Another factor in the decision making process, and one I don't know the answer to, is how much these guys are making in Japan/Korea. Does anybody know?

[Oxtung]

I worry that even if the Twins are the high bidder on Tanaka, the Twins do not have other factors in place to maximize his success.

 

Looking back, when Kuroda went to the Dodgers, he was 33 years old, the Dodgers closer was Takashi Saito and Kuroda was not expected to anchor the rotation. The Dodgers also had Lowe & Billingsley and 20-year-old Clayton Kershaw as well as Brad Penny.

 

When Darvish went to the Rangers, they not only had the guru in charge (Nolan Ryan), they also had Matt Harrison and Derek Holland (plus Scott Feldman, Colby Lewis & Ryan Dempster). They also had Yoshinori Tateyama already in their system (and having made his major league debut).

 

Tanaka would pretty much be expected to anchor the Twins rotation plus would be the only Japanese player on the team at this point. Would that really maximize his possibility of success? Is he the right fit for the Twins? Are the Twins the right fit for him?

 

I don't know the answer to any of your questions, I'm not sure anybody does, but they are great questions.

[ericchri]

Wasn't sure if this really warranted a new topic, so I'll tack it on here as the discussion of Tanaka involves posting fees.

 

Just wondering if you could abuse the system to "block" a player if you were worried about him signing with a rival. Make a huge bid guaranteed to win, but then offer a terrible contract the player won't sign, thus preventing him from coming over here. Just wondering if there's anything that would prevent that, like the Japanese team keeping XX% of the posting fee regardless.

[Mike Sixel]

Oakland did that. It was not smiled on.....

 

Value is a funny thing. If you aren't going to spend that money elsewhere, and your best pitcher is a number 4 or 5 quality pitcher, I'd think Tananka holds more value to you than to a team that already has 3 or more good pitchers. Also, if you have a budget of between 90 and 120MM, and you are only spending 60-70MM, he should be more affordable to you (regardless of value).

[ericchri]

I wasn't suggesting the Twins do that, just had the thought cross my mind wondering if it could even be done. Not they have reason to worry per se, but if the Red Sox were certain the Yankees were most likely to get him, could they pull that off to prevent it?

[nicksaviking]

I wasn't suggesting the Twins do that, just had the thought cross my mind wondering if it could even be done. Not they have reason to worry per se, but if the Red Sox were certain the Yankees were most likely to get him, could they pull that off to prevent it?

 

Yeah, Oakland did it, and it's likely one of the reasons the Japanese Leagues are considering changing the posting system so that multiple teams are allowed to negotiate with the player.