Article: The Tanaka Factor

[twinsfan34]

I've been a longtime lurker, but after reading about Tanaka, I finally felt I needed to sign up and join the discussion.

 

 

Great first post.

[twinsfan34]

If the Twins can get Tanaka for similar to Yu Darvish (6yr $56M +$4M in possible roster bonuses + $51.7M for negotiating rights) money, he would probably be a better deal than most of the pitching signed this past off-season. Darvish ultimately will 'cost' an average of $18.6M per year.

 

Here's a rundown of 2012 FA class (begin 2013 with their new teams) production and salary for 2013:

 

The question is, how would he then compare to the top pitching Free Agent Starting pitching for next year?

 

A quick gander at the crop of top FA starting pitchers for the 2014 season can be had at MLB Trade Rumors.

 

If anyone saw my breakdown of starting pitching in the playoffs - most of the starting pitching that led to playoff teams was built on the farm, rather than through Free Agency.

[Shane Wahl]

They reason I say it is unfortunate is because, yes, I would rather go six years with someone who could really be an ace, then to go three years for the same money on guys who will *then be gone* from the staff when 2017 gets here (unless signing another deal meaning more money etc.). Those are plans 1. and 1a. in my view though. And it is possible to trade one, two, or three of those guys at some point in the contract.

 

I am sold on Tanaka though. It took awhile.

[BG816]

Mr. Brooks is right, but that's not really the problem. The Twins just won't spend significant money on a free agent pitcher. I'm not sure what more they can do to prove this... decades of empirical evidence. Literally hundreds of statements by Terry Ryan. A cheap ownership group.

 

The chances of the Twins signing Tanaka are 0%.

 

A. I'm not so sure ownership should be considered cheap. It's a business and they do what's necessary to make money for the shareholders, whether that means spending or reducing payroll. There is history of ownership spending when they deem it necessary, though that money was spent poorly by a bad GM. When evaluating the Pohlads, compare them to the rest of the league. Besides the Yankees, Dodgers and their ilk, they don't seem any less willing to spend than the rest.

 

B. Regarding Ryan, you have to take everything that comes out of his mouth with a grain of salt. He is not going to tell the press that he's going to spend a certain amount of money or he's going to target a certain player. He's competing with every other team in the league and showing his hand would assure loss. By keeping consistent in his statements (displaying a poker face), he can hide the fact that he may be holding a full house or better. Statements to the press should not hold much weight when determining whether the Twins will make a serious run at Tanaka or any other high end free agent pitcher. Though I'm not discounting Ryan's history of not spending much on pitching, I think circumstances are different here.

[ThePuck]

In Smith's first two years as GM, payroll was lower than Ryan's last year as GM before he stepped down. Would you say Ryan spent money poorly for 2007 because it was higher than any other year before 2010 and we had a losing record after having a fantastic record in 2006?

 

The big money spend by Smith was due mostly to Mauer's pay raise (an additional 10.5 million form the 2010 team payroll). Heck 2011 was the really big spending year, who did he got get that wasn't on the 2010 team that cost a lot? Nishi? That pay was countered by getting rid of Punto.

 

In fact, when did Smith go out and get a pricey FA? What poor spending are we talking about? Re-signing Mauer, re-signing Cuddyer, re-signing Nathan or re-signing Morny? Which one of those were bad signings when they were done?

[BG816]

The big money spend by Smith was due mostly to Mauer's pay raise (an additional 10.5 million form the 2010 team payroll). Heck 2011 was the really big spending year, who did he got get that wasn't on the 2010 team that cost a lot? Nishi? That pay was countered by getting rid of Punto.

 

In fact, when did Smith go out and get a pricey FA? What poor spending are we talking about? Re-signing Mauer, re-signing Cuddyer, re-signing Nathan or re-signing Morny? Which one of those were bad signings when they were done?

 

You make a good point. But I guess what I was trying to get across is that the willingness to spend was there. In other organizations, many of those players would have been traded before their raises or would have been allowed to walk. However, I suppose a lot of the spending could have had more to do with the Twins' loyalty to their own players who have come up through their system and flourished.

[drivlikejehu]

A. I'm not so sure ownership should be considered cheap. It's a business and they do what's necessary to make money for the shareholders, whether that means spending or reducing payroll. There is history of ownership spending when they deem it necessary, though that money was spent poorly by a bad GM. When evaluating the Pohlads, compare them to the rest of the league. Besides the Yankees, Dodgers and their ilk, they don't seem any less willing to spend than the rest..

 

Pro sports franchises are not really a typical business. There are other factors in play as well, such as the prestige ownership brings. The Pohlads aren't totally outside the ordinary levels of financial commitment, but they aren't great either. The Tigers, Giants, White Sox, and Phillies are teams that come to mind where ownership has typically accepted lower profits to improve competitiveness (obviously some of the difference owes to market size rather than ownership).

 

B. Regarding Ryan, you have to take everything that comes out of his mouth with a grain of salt. He is not going to tell the press that he's going to spend a certain amount of money or he's going to target a certain player. He's competing with every other team in the league and showing his hand would assure loss. By keeping consistent in his statements (displaying a poker face), he can hide the fact that he may be holding a full house or better. Statements to the press should not hold much weight when determining whether the Twins will make a serious run at Tanaka or any other high end free agent pitcher. Though I'm not discounting Ryan's history of not spending much on pitching, I think circumstances are different here.

 

I'm not referring to any specific remark Ryan has made, but rather what his countless interviews and statements over the years reveal about his baseball philosophy. He just does not believe in spending money on free agent pitching. Sticking to that line isn't fooling anyone or giving him some kind of competitive advantage. If he does start going after free agents, other clubs will react the exact same way as if any other team bid... they could care less whether that team is the Twins or [pick team].

[ThePuck]

You make a good point. But I guess what I was trying to get across is that the willingness to spend was there. In other organizations, many of those players would have been traded before their raises or would have been allowed to walk. However, I suppose a lot of the spending could have had more to do with the Twins' loyalty to their own players who have come up through their system and flourished.

 

The willingness was there because, at least in Mauer and Morny's cases, that was something that had to be done. Look at the timing of the spending and when it started taking effect. When we moved into the new ballpark. Would have been a HUGE PR hit if at least those two weren't signed...I mean HUGE.

 

That's not the case now...and it's not the same GM either...the owners have to be willing and so does the GM they entrust to spend.

[h2oface]

Tanaka is exactly what the Twins need. He would mature with Buxton and Sano and Arcia and Levi Michael........ ops..... forget Michael...... Rosario.... et al. Puig was cheap to, considering. But then, he has way too much personality for the Twins and many fans. Tanaka could be the young ace that solidifies the diversity of the new up and coming teams, and provides the pitching that could lead the hopefuls.

[BG816]

The willingness was there because, at least in Mauer and Morny's cases, that was something that had to be done. Look at the timing of the spending and when it started taking effect. When we moved into the new ballpark. Would have been a HUGE PR hit if at least those two weren't signed...I mean HUGE.

 

That's not the case now...and it's not the same GM either...the owners have to be willing and so does the GM they entrust to spend.

 

Again, good point. But don't you think PR has taken a hit recently with the decreased payroll, the decreased talent on the field, and the decrease in wins in the standings? The county is still paying for that stadium. I would hope ownership doesn't think it's okay to continue down this path, and I know the fan-base doesn't think it's okay. So I think the risk of PR hits IS still the case today, granted less pronounced or obvious.

[ThePuck]

Again, good point. But don't you think PR has taken a hit recently with the decreased payroll, the decreased talent on the field, and the decrease in wins in the standings? The county is still paying for that stadium. I would hope ownership doesn't think it's okay to continue down this path, and I know the fan-base doesn't think it's okay. So I think the risk of PR hits IS still the case today, granted less pronounced or obvious.

 

Yes, there is still a PR issue, but now they can say they are rebuilding...now the can say attendance is down...now they can say we have a big payroll guy, even if the other three payroll guys are gone...and, you know, we're going into season five now at the new stadium. It's not right after the new ballpark got approved and moved into. Your argument is sound, but now it's a matter of degrees the PR hit threat is, IMO. And, again, even if the ownership is willing to live up to what they said, the GM has to make the moves...and ownership has made it clear, it's all in Ryan's hands...and Ryan thinks a 3 year 21M FA contract is a very big contract.

 

That is not to say Ryan won't change...he may...but I think he'll build this team up to where he wants to, and then bail if/when the really big contracts need to be done.

[diehardtwinsfan]

BG816,

 

I do hope you are right in that they will go hard after Tanaka. I'm probably one of the more conservative people on this board in terms of how the Twins should operate, and like you I think this is the smart choice. I'm not as optimistic in them doing so.

 

Puck,

 

Here's the real problem with FA. 3 big moves won't make this team go from a 90 loss team to a 90 win team. It might make the 96 loss team drop to an 85-80 loss team depending on how things play out, and while that will be more beneficial to watch (and that's assuming they make the right 3 moves, which we all know isn't a given), I don't see how it makes sense unless the big moves are going to be around (and not blocking) the next wave. I like Tanaka from the standpoint of his age, as he's going to be playing out his contract in his 20s as opposed to his 30s. That said, if the Twins commit 100M to a guy, how much more are they going to spend? And how much more should they? I just don't see them handing out multiple huge contracts, and for good reason. They will need some flexibility as the next wave arrives. It's been said numerous times that no one knows which prospects will succeed and which will fail. That's all true, and it's all the more reason why you have money available so that you can plug the inevitable hole once the team is good again.

 

Getting Tanaka (or Abreau as a consolation prize), and doing little else other than trading away some bullpen players for prospects would be an excellent offseason in my opinion.

[FSP]

Getting Tanaka (or Abreau as a consolation prize), and doing little else other than trading away some bullpen players for prospects would be an excellent offseason in my opinion.

 

Agree 100%. The only thing I care about this offseason is adding long term building blocks, prospects basically, and Abreu and Tanaka are just major league ready prospects. They are young enough to have several good years remaining while we are hopefully relevant while the other FA's will be gone or declining by then. Other than those two we're just throwing our money away to be not quite as bad in the short term, getting a worse draft pick in the process, but doing nothing for the long term.

[freshinthehouse]

Agree with the last two post. This team is so abysmal right now that no off-season maneuvers are going to make this team a winner in 2014. A lot of youngn's are going to be making their debut throughout the season, and most of them will struggle at some point. That sounds like a rebuilding year to me. Grabbing a high-profile int'l player like Tanaka or Abreu (or both!) has to be priority #1. Picking up a couple of decent 30 year old pitchers is not what this team needs. This team needs as many young uber-prospects as possible.

[BabyJesusBuxton]

The biggest glaring hole right now is starting pitching. Until this is fixed nothing else matters. Tanaka, if he produces as advertised, would be a huge step in the right direction. If they are able to get Tanaka and sign another quality FA SP this offseason to a 3 year deal I think the team could have a turnaround year.

 

I understand there are other issues, particularly with the offense. I think if the pitching is corrected, the other issues can be easily fixed through platoons, prospects, and free agents.

[Shane Wahl]

The biggest glaring hole right now is starting pitching. Until this is fixed nothing else matters. Tanaka, if he produces as advertised, would be a huge step in the right direction. If they are able to get Tanaka and sign another quality FA SP this offseason to a 3 year deal I think the team could have a turnaround year.

 

I understand there are other issues, particularly with the offense. I think if the pitching is corrected, the other issues can be easily fixed through platoons, prospects, and free agents.

 

I am in 100% agreement. Tanaka and Hughes or Johnson or Kazmir or Hudson (1 year deal) would BLOW. MY. MIND.

 

A well-run organization with massive money to spend would do that. So, there is the problem. Right there. End of story.

[Shane Wahl]

I do agree that $120 million would be better spent in Cuba. But I am not sure it is better spent in the U.S. on free agents.

[BabyJesusBuxton]

Agreed that it is unlikely they land Tanaka but in order to save face with the fans they need to make a move such as this. I could see the attendance drop by more than 30 percent in 2015 if they don't improve next year to a respectable MLB team. 2014 attendance (tickets sold as apposed to people in house) will be fine because of the allstar game. If they lose 85+ games again next year there are going to be tons of people jumping ship on top of those just trying to score allstar tickets.

[ScottyB]

Not only is it unlikely that we get Tanaka, but I would go a step further - it's impossible. The Yankees have decided to go after him strong and the other teams in the mix are the Red Sox, Dodgers and Rangers. We would need to bid between $150 and $200 million just for the rights to make an offer. We just don't have pockets that deep.

[nicksaviking]

Not only is it unlikely that we get Tanaka, but I would go a step further - it's impossible. The Yankees have decided to go after him strong and the other teams in the mix are the Red Sox, Dodgers and Rangers. We would need to bid between $150 and $200 million just for the rights to make an offer. We just don't have pockets that deep.

 

While I agree it is very unlikely the Twins will get Tanaka, the $150-$200 million posting fee is pretty rediculous. While the Yankees may go after him, they are trying to get under the $189 million luxery tax threshold. With Arod's 2014 salray in a legal fight, the Yankees may actually have less free agent budget than the Twins do and that's beside the consideration that they surely will still at least attemt to retain Robinson Cano.

[Mike Sixel]

No one is bidding $200MM dollars.

[Nick Nelson]

We would need to bid between $150 and $200 million just for the rights to make an offer.

 

Uhhh...

[LaBombo]

2014 attendance (tickets sold as apposed to people in house) will be fine because of the allstar game. If they lose 85+ games again next year there are going to be tons of people jumping ship on top of those just trying to score allstar tickets.

Will people really fork over thousands of dollars to see Glen Perkins throw an inning of middle relief in a meaningless (for the Twins, anyway) exhibition game? Could happen, I guess; sometimes I forget there are people who love baseball even more than I do.

 

And only 85 losses would be a stunning victory for the front office, given that no team in over 70 years has lost fewer than 93 when bringing back a manager with a three-year record as bad as Gardy's. Probably better off hoping for the high draft pick anyway.

[ScottyB]

My $150 - $200 was meant to be an exageration. However posting fees are not counted toward luxury tax, and whatever the final posting fee is it will be more than Ryan will spend. With the Yankees, Bosox, Dodgers and Rangers in the mix, it will be well north of Darvish's $51 million +. The most we've spent for a posting fee is the $5 million we paid for Nishi. We came in second for Iwakuma to the A's who paid $19 million to negotiate.

[BabyJesusBuxton]

I would be surprised if the posting fee is higher than Darvish's.

 

The Yankees have been trying to decrease payroll and need to save money to secure Cano as Nick pointed out.

 

The Red Sox have a full rotation through the 2014 season which would make me wonder why they would post over 50 million to sign a 6th starter when that money could be spent elsewhere. Although everyone knows there is no such thing as too much SP.

 

The Dodgers are a bit of a wild card. They have shown that there isn't really a cap on their roster payroll. However, they are likely going to need to fork out around an 8 year $225 million deal to sign Kershaw after next season. They do have two open rotation spots though behind Kershaw, Grienke and Ryu so who knows how high they would go here?

 

The Rangers could also possibly go after Tanaka as they are in need of another starter. They have expressed wanting to bring back Colby Lewis which would be a low risk high reward signing coming off TJ surgery (one I wouldn't mind seeing the Twins pursue too). I could see them bidding highly for Tanaka as they had success with the posting for Yu Darvish.

 

Ultimately the question I find interesting is this - Will everyone post higher based on the number it required to get Darvish? Or does the highest bidder come back down to earth because the next closest bid after the Rangers was way less than the posting fee that the Rangers paid to sign Darvish.

[Mike Sixel]

Again with the argument that you don't add players unless they can get you to 90 wins.....you add 1 good/great player a year in FA for a few years, you are that much closer. I don't get this argument at all.

 

On Tanaka, I think that a big market team will post something like $75MM, and the Twins will post around $30MM. I'd go as high as $50-60MM if I was them, given the increase in revenue and what they've pocketed lately.....but I think they ultimately get outbid. I think they don't bid seriously on any Cuban also.

[kab21]

Again with the argument that you don't add players unless they can get you to 90 wins.....you add 1 good/great player a year in FA for a few years, you are that much closer. I don't get this argument at all.

 

On Tanaka, I think that a big market team will post something like $75MM, and the Twins will post around $30MM. I'd go as high as $50-60MM if I was them, given the increase in revenue and what they've pocketed lately.....but I think they ultimately get outbid. I think they don't bid seriously on any Cuban also.

 

Who is making that argument in this thread?

 

In other threads people have made that argument but most of those other threads are about signing 30+ yr olds. The Twins shouldn't be investing a lot of money in players that will be finishing their contracts in their mid 30's. this team has to get younger. this thread however is about a 24 yr old which is exactly the type of player the Twins should target. the scary thing is that it might take 120M to sign him (including posting fee). That is A LOT OF money regardless of what you think the Twins payroll should be. Not only do you have agree to pay that much money for one FA but you also have to be very sure of someone that hasn't thrown an MLB pitch. The Nishioka concerns are silly because he wasn't a great player in Japan (he was a solid above average player) but Tanaka still hasn't thrown an MLB pitch.

[Mike Sixel]

Heh, I was reading two threads, and posted that first part in the wrong thread, sorry.

[Jim Crikket]

From Keith Law's chat today:

 

Can you opine on Tanaka and if can potentially be as good as Darvish? Or do you not know enough about him to comment?

[h=6]Klaw (1:17 PM)

[/h]

 

He's not close to Darvish. No one from NPB is. The entire comparison is based on ethnicity/former league. Tanaka is more comparable to Kuroda.

[h=6]Klaw (1:17 PM)

[/h]

 

...but no one wants to say that because it's not as exciting. Tanaka is more like a mid-rotation guy here, but he'll be paid like he's much better than that.

 

Just wondering if that sort of evaluation makes anyone who has been suggesting the Twins be aggressive in the bidding process have second thoughts.

[ThePuck]

I'll take a Kurodo all day long...