Ask Baseball America - The Rule 5 Draft and Max Kepler

[golfboy1]

That's a good problem to have. It's kinda like delaying service time -- if the guy is good enough that you're still talking about him 3+ years down the road, burning an option year or giving him a month extra service time will be very small potatoes.

 

If they like Kepler now, or even if they are down on him at the moment but liked him recently, they would be pretty foolish to risk losing him for a 40-man roster spot, particularly given the current construction of the 40-man roster.

 

I like Kepler, but I don't see him being ready to stick at the ML roster in 3 years with NO option of sending him down. He batted .237 at low A ball & he doesn't project as a great OF or a great baserunner so his bat will have to carry him.

 

I think we are overvaluing Kepler. He wasn't rated as a top 20 prospect in the MWL & while he has a chance to be a good ML player so do hundreds of other players in A ball. Heck, even on CR I would rate quite a few players higher than him.

 

Houston could take him since they really don't seem to care what their record is but they would have to leave one of their own prospects exposed to the draft. I think if we protect Kepler now & he continues to develop I am more concerned we would lose him thru waivers or be forced to keep him on the ML roster when he could use more seasoning.

 

We always worry about losing someone in the draft but nobody has drafted a Twins player since 2008 & that was a player named Jose Lugo...who I don't even remember. He was eventually returned & hasn't done anything.

[iastfan112]

I checked the past 3 years, a player in low A being drafted is exceedingly rare and in fact there's only been one player from that level who's managed to stick in the past 3 years, even he was a RP.

Lendy Castillo Minor League Statistics & History - Baseball-Reference.com

 

Lots of AA/AAA players drafted, very few below there. I think teams realize the amount of development lost due to players, especially hitters, being overmatched by large jumps from A ball just isn't worth it. Since Kepler is a corner player a team couldn't even justify it on the basis of defense. I'd leave him unprotected, the risk just isn't that high imo.

[Otto von Ballpark]

For the record, I am pretty down on Kepler myself, pending his AFL performance. He was the international man of mystery for awhile, but he's at an age now where he really should be showing some production. I agree the risk of losing him at this time is probably quite low.

 

I just don't think it would hamper the Twins or Kepler to protect him now if they feel it is warranted.

[Oxtung]

There has only been 1 position player that was drafted from A-ball and went on to play a game with their new MLB team in the last 10 years. That was a defensive minded shortstop with speed. A not great defensively OF/1B that can't pinch hit, can't pinch run, can't be a defensive replacement is not going to get drafted let alone stick with a team.

 

The options are a very important consideration. Most players aren't able to stick by age 23. Cuddyer, Bartlett, Mientkiewicz, Koskie, and Span all had their first full season at the age of 25. Morneau, Hunter and Jacque Jones had their first success at 25 as well. Jason Kubel was 26. Committing to a course of action that tosses a player under the bus because they aren't ready at the age of 23 seems foolhardy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The options are a very important consideration. Most players aren't able to stick by age 23. Cuddyer, Bartlett, Mientkiewicz, Koskie, and Span all had their first full season at the age of 25. Morneau, Hunter and Jacque Jones had their first success at 25 as well. Jason Kubel was 26.

 

While I understand and mostly agree with your larger point (he's unlikely to be selected), I believe if added now, Kepler would be 24 when he "had" to stick in the majors. Ages 21-23 would be his three option years.

 

From your list, it should be noted that Bartlett, Mientkiewicz, Koskie, and Jones were all college draftees. Those ages you list were generally their fourth full pro seasons, a level Kepler will be attaining next year (giving him a pass for his first "full" rookie ball season at age 17). Even if added to the 40-man now, Kepler would still be getting 6+ full seasons of minor league play.

 

Also, Kubel only played 30 games in the minors after age 22, and probably only "needed" them due to injury. Morneau played 72 at age 23, arguably did not need them, and played none thereafter. Cuddyer played 55 at age 24, arguably did not need them, and played none thereafter.

 

Guys who are capable of becoming MLB regulars are generally capable of sticking in the majors by age 23-24 (or, if college drafted, age 25).

[Otto von Ballpark]

What do we think of Jorge Polanco? Similar age as Kepler (actually ~5 months younger), better recent health and arguably stats in Low-A.

 

It would be interesting to see if any notable MLB players ever went unprotected but were not claimed...

[TRex]

I think looking at who WAS taken as a comparator for whether Kepler WILL be taken is a bit of a non-sequitur.

 

The real question (although much harder to answer) is how many 20 year old, $800,000 bonus babies that were already ranked as one of their teams top-10 prospects were left unprotected? That is pretty much the equivalent of the Twins not protecting Kohl Stewart next year. OK, maybe Torii Hunter is a better example to use after the .248/.330/.348 line he put up in his second full year (albeit in high-A).

 

And remember, while his 2013 season in total wasn't overly dominant, teams are looking more at projection, and he was at a line of .261/.343/.459 before he went in the tank the last week of the season. Also, as we discuss so much with AB Walker II, Kepler's walk rate, strikeout rate and W/SO numbers have been very good the last two years (over 10%, under 20%, and ~0.7). Finally, remember that Kepler played this whole season with an injured elbow but, like Oswaldo Arcia in 2011, was still able to play through it. Oswaldo came back with a monstrous 2012 season, so we may not yet have seen Max's best. I think other teams could also take the chance the 'injury' would allow them to put him on the 60-day DL and 'hide' him from the 25-man roster. Remember, it's only a $25,000 gamble and Kepler has done nothing to indicate he wasn't worth his $800,000 signing bonus!

 

Is it too early to start crafting jokes for when Kepler establishes himself as the leagues best hitting left fielder (ala Willingham)... you know, about the Beattle's song...

 

Bang, Bang Maxwell's Silver Hammer came down upon his (the pitcher's) head,

Bang, Bang Maxwell's Silver Hammer made sure that he (the Tigers and Justin Verlander) was dead

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think looking at who WAS taken as a comparator for whether Kepler WILL be taken is a bit of a non-sequitur.

 

The real question (although much harder to answer) is how many 20 year old, $800,000 bonus babies that were already ranked as one of their teams top-10 prospects were left unprotected?

 

Great point. It would be an awesome study to look at past guys left unprotected and see if there were any notables (high draft picks, big bonuses, future MLB success). I might try this. The tricky part might be finding past 40 man rosters... looks like the Internet Archive has some of those. For example, a quick glance shows November 40-mans for the Twins there back to 2007, but it skips 2009-2010.

 

The fact that Kepler is in the Arizona Fall League suggests he is still highly regarded, and might be more "ready" than Low-A would normally indicate.

 

Also, his full name is Maximilian.

[ashbury]

In addition to the many points raised about the dilemma of adding Kepler to the 40-man, I would add that it means there is no slack left for a "lost season" in the next three, say a strained hammie costing him 6 weeks in May and then a broken collarbone ruining the final half of his season.

[Mike Sixel]

You risk losing him now, or you risk losing him when he is out of options.......I'd like to keep him, and worry about the future in 3 years.

[TRex]

Also, his full name is Maximilian.

 

There is a reason I try hard not to get too funny when I post... I am really not very good at it (despite my delusional opinion otherwise)!

[Oxtung]

While I understand and mostly agree with your larger point (he's unlikely to be selected), I believe if added now, Kepler would be 24 when he "had" to stick in the majors. Ages 21-23 would be his three option years.

 

From your list, it should be noted that Bartlett, Mientkiewicz, Koskie, and Jones were all college draftees. Those ages you list were generally their fourth full pro seasons, a level Kepler will be attaining next year (giving him a pass for his first "full" rookie ball season at age 17). Even if added to the 40-man now, Kepler would still be getting 6+ full seasons of minor league play.

 

Also, Kubel only played 30 games in the minors after age 22, and probably only "needed" them due to injury. Morneau played 72 at age 23, arguably did not need them, and played none thereafter. Cuddyer played 55 at age 24, arguably did not need them, and played none thereafter.

 

Guys who are capable of becoming MLB regulars are generally capable of sticking in the majors by age 23-24 (or, if college drafted, age 25).

 

You can make all the excuses you want but it still stands that all those players were either not ready until 25 or were not good until 25. Kepler has long been considered very raw but talented. It should be no surprise if he doesn't start jumping levels quickly and instead takes him a while to put it all together. Taking an "if he isn't ready by 24 he should be cut anyways" attitude is to ignore reality (this wasn't necessarily your point but others have made it in this thread).

[Otto von Ballpark]

You can make all the excuses you want but it still stands that all those players were either not ready until 25 or were not good until 25.

 

Jones hit his career average OPS+ at age 24. Morneau did it at 23. Cuddyer was basically a league-average hitter in his limited time at ages 23-24.

 

What I keep coming back to is, if Kepler is good enough for the AFL now, he's probably good enough to protect on the 40-man now, and should reasonably be expected to "stick" as an average MLB hitter by 2017 if he is ever going to.

[TRex]

This is going to be a really difficult discussion if Kepler has a poor showing in the AFL, because I think we (mostly) would agree that he doesn't need to be protected. But I will still be highly agitated if he is picked. I know a good argument could be made that he won't stick, but each of the other 29 teams would have a shot at him before the Twins could get him back after waivers. Does anyone know if we could take him back and put him on OUR 25-man roster?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think looking at who WAS taken as a comparator for whether Kepler WILL be taken is a bit of a non-sequitur.

 

The real question (although much harder to answer) is how many 20 year old, $800,000 bonus babies that were already ranked as one of their teams top-10 prospects were left unprotected? That is pretty much the equivalent of the Twins not protecting Kohl Stewart next year. OK, maybe Torii Hunter is a better example to use after the .248/.330/.348 line he put up in his second full year (albeit in high-A).

 

 

I'm not sure I'm getting what you are saying here. Stewart doesn't need to be protected for another four years. If all goes well, he's pitching in Minnesota by then. Kepler's issue is that he can in theory be taken now by another team.. However, if they protect him, he's likely going to have to make a Hicks like jump from AA to the majors with no options to protect him or the team should he get off to a Hicks like start.

 

I personally have a tough time believing he's going to get taken in the major league portion of the rule V draft, though I suspect he's going to need to be put on the AA or AAA reserve rosters.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Jones hit his career average OPS+ at age 24. Morneau did it at 23. Cuddyer was basically a league-average hitter in his limited time at ages 23-24.

 

What I keep coming back to is, if Kepler is good enough for the AFL now, he's probably good enough to protect on the 40-man now, and should reasonably be expected to "stick" as an average MLB hitter by 2017 if he is ever going to.

 

That isn't how it works though. You are selectively looking at a few successful cases (who might I add were also not struggling to hit low A ball at the same age) and ignoring the countless number of guys who failed at that age. Have we forgotten about Hicks already? He's 23.

 

Every player develops differently, and every player's development needs to be considered in the general context of how they are doing. To put in perspective, if they protected Kepler this season, he'd have to go Buxton on A and A+ ball next season to position himself for AA and possibly AAA the following year. I don't see him doing that.

[big dog]

Why do you want the Twins to change the way they handle their prospects? Usually by the time a player that was drafted reaches AAA he is 26 and makes his pro debut at 28. Too bad we can't learn anything from Tampa and draft some quality arms.

 

"Usually"? I assume you are being sarcastic.