Mackey: Twins lack innovation

[Parker Hageman]

The Minnesota Twins need outside ideas.

 

That's the two-second abridged version of 1500ESPN.com's Phil Mackey's column regarding the right way to fix the Twins. While numerous people decried the retention of manager Ron Gardenhire as the reason the team is failing on the field, Mackey takes aim at the organization in general and how the once-model franchise has fallen behind the front-runners.

 

It is a must-read.

 

Mackey cites several organization -- St Louis Cardinals, Oakland A's, Tampa Bay Rays, Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cleveland Indians -- who have taken measures to push envelope in all aspects of the game, from the front office decision-making to the field management, and have been rewarded with winning baseball for it.

 

Of course, there are several organizations that have robust statistical departments and analytical emphasis who have also been this year unsuccessful too. San Francisco Giants have Yeshayah Goldfarb running their statistics and analytics and his decisions were given plenty of credit for the 2012 World Series title. This year, they lost 86 games. The Yankees are rumored to have not just the most money but some of the best minds in the game working for their analytics department. The Cubs and Astros are just getting their houses in order but have a long way to go to be competitive. Over the long term, those teams should have a competitive advantage over other teams.

 

The thing is it is a slow burn in order to get some of the ideas (1) implemented and (2) working.

 

Consider the Pirates. When the Nutting ownership group took over in 2007 they hired Neal Huntington as GM. The following year, Huntington hired Dan Fox to take over the analytics for the team. It took five years before the team was able to capitalize on Fox’s handy work, most notably because of the defensive shifts.

 

There are other examples of this across the league.

 

The Blue Jays hired Joe Sheehan**, in 2010 after he had a stint with the Pirates for two years. It may have been Sheehan’s information that encouraged manager John Gibbons to move Jose Bautista from the third spot to the second spot in the order. Also worth noting is the fact that the Jays have progressively finished worse (for various reasons) since Sheehan’s arrival.

 

Does this mean the losing is Sheehan’s fault? Absolutely not. So many factors go into winning that go beyond just the stat culture. Credit and blame cannot be dished out solely to Fox or Sheehan’s efforts. Both organizations are better for having minds like Fox and Sheehan’s in the fray but they cannot control the investment in player development or scouting efforts in the Dominican.

 

The Twins have their guy (now guys, plural) as well. His influence has been part of the decision-making process as well as having some input behind Joe Mauer’s move from third to second in the batting order this year. Behind the curtain, the Jack Goin-led Twins research team has plenty of efforts underway which, if harnessed correctly, could give the team an edge. But it just does not happen overnight.

 

Beyond the analytics, the Twins have also made strides to improve the development system. The Pirates had invested money into to their player development side, improving their Florida spring training grounds. The Twins, meanwhile, have recently broke ground on their expansion plans for their spring training facility. Like the Pirates before them, the Twins hope this provides dividends on the player development side.

 

The fact is the Twins will never be a Tampa or Oakland. Mackey’s 100 percent correct that Ron Gardenhire is far from the team’s problem. The Twins need to focus on gaining that competitive advantage after being lapped by other teams – there is no reason they cannot match Pittsburgh or Cleveland – but you have to jog before you sprint.

 

***CORRECTION: I had erroneously reported it was Baseball Prospectus' Joe Sheehan. Completely different Sheehan.***

[JB_Iowa]

Gardenhire isn't the team's problem in and of himself but he is a big reflection of the team's problem.

 

Too much inbreeding. Too much complacency. Too much "old boys club". Too little innovation. Too few hires from outside the organization. Too little accountability. Too much "resting on their laurels".

 

Mackey isn't saying anything that you can't read in the other threads on this topic -- many of us are talking about the need for changes.

 

But extending Gardenhire for 2 years and keeping his coaching staff intact for at least another year is a big indication that the Twins are change-adverse.

 

This franchise is in the death throes. It needs an infusion of new ideas, perspective and leadership. That's why some of us feel that Gardenhire needed to go -- we knew it was unlikely that Ryan would go so the managerial spot was a place where, perhaps, a breath of life could have been brought into this franchise.

 

Mackey sums it up well: "If you are only hiring and promoting from within, it's hard to see outside of your own ecosystem - an ecosystem that, despite the emergence of Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton, is lagging far behind the top teams in baseball."

[Mike Sixel]

So the Yankees missing the playoffs for the first time in like 2 decades shows they are not well run? The fact that a team won the WS, then lost 86 games the next year shows they are not well run? I don't get those arguments.

 

I agree with Mackey, the Twins are stuck in 1971.

[Parker Hageman]

So the Yankees missing the playoffs for the first time in like 2 decades shows they are not well run? The fact that a team won the WS, then lost 86 games the next year shows they are not well run? I don't get those arguments.

 

Nope, not an argument. Not saying they are not well run. Saying that all teams have analytics departments to various degrees. We hear more about the Pittsburgh Pirates' efforts when they have been successful in the season. Before this year, there was little talk about their efforts.

[nicksaviking]

"I don't want to be flippant about (that) approach (more analytics), but I'll tell you one thing - we were the team that everybody patterned themselves after for a decade," Ryan said in an interview with 1500 ESPN on Monday. "So, with that being said, we've got 25 guys who are analytical, sabermetric-type people, and they're called scouts. Every one of them should be responsible, should be able to decipher some of the sabermetrics, which I do and have done, and we've done it for about 25 years here. And we've got a (statistical) department, as you know."

 

No kidding Terry, you successfully held on to your prospects and flipped modest veterans for minor leaguers with much more value. But now every club looks to do that and the game is played out. It was a nice move and everyone rightfully applauded you for it, but the manuever was copied and you lost your advantage. It's over, if you refuse to adapt to new ideas that are successful with other clubs it is imperative that you hang it up and let others do the thinking for this club.

 

For the record, the second half of that quote is quite sickening. He actually thinks that his scouts are his Sabrmatricians? It doesn't work that way. Each of them should be able to "decifer" some Sabrmetrics? Not even close to good enough. These other teams don't "decifer some" of these stats, they are putting them to work and utilizing them both on and off the field. It is a full time job, they don't spend 90% of their day scouting. This is not acceptable.

[amjgt]

Cleveland is the worst thing that's ever happened to Terry Ryan.

[ThePuck]

"I don't want to be flippant about (that) approach (more analytics), but I'll tell you one thing - we were the team that everybody patterned themselves after for a decade," Ryan said in an interview with 1500 ESPN on Monday. "So, with that being said, we've got 25 guys who are analytical, sabermetric-type people, and they're called scouts. Every one of them should be responsible, should be able to decipher some of the sabermetrics, which I do and have done, and we've done it for about 25 years here. And we've got a (statistical) department, as you know."

 

No kidding Terry, you successfully held on to your prospects and flipped modest veterans for minor leaguers with much more value. But now every club looks to do that and the game is played out. It was a nice move and everyone rightfully applauded you for it, but the manuever was copied and you lost your advantage. It's over, if you refuse to adapt to new ideas that are successful with other clubs it is imperative that you hang it up and let others do the thinking for this club.

 

For the record, the second half of that quote is quite sickening. He actually thinks that his scouts are his Sabrmatricians? It doesn't work that way. Each of them should be able to "decifer" some Sabrmetrics? Not even close to good enough. These other teams don't "decifer some" of these stats, they are putting them to work and utilizing them both on and off the field. It is a full time job, they don't spend 90% of their day scouting. This is not acceptable.

 

Well, Mackey did a pretty good job deservedly slamming Ryan for what he said...well as much as anyone does slam Ryan.

[Mike Sixel]

The arrogance of the first part is disturbing. The "scouts are statisticians" part is depressing in its lack of understanding.

[Willihammer]

The arrogance of the first part is disturbing. The "scouts are statisticians" part is depressing in its lack of understanding.

 

Radar gun and a stopwatch?

 

I think he knows exactly how this sounds. Again, Terry Ryan: media troll.

[LaBombo]

The arrogance of the first part is disturbing. The "scouts are statisticians" part is depressing in its lack of understanding.

It's reaching the point where I sort of hope that he'll just stop talking to the media, which I normally hate.

[Alex]

I'm glad that someone in the media has started to champion this opinion (though I'll say up until that article, he'd seemed far more supportive of the Twins approach).

 

It's frustrating to me to continually hear the arrogance that comes from Ryan and others when asked about a change in philosophy (ie they aren't having it) when the team has had three straight losing seasons and looks headed to a fourth.

 

To extend the discussion from Seth's article: If the employee I had had failed at three projects in a row, they better "get after" doing something different on the fourth.

[Alex]

Radar gun and a stopwatch?

 

I think he knows exactly how this sounds. Again, Terry Ryan: media troll.

 

Terry Ryan was recently quoted as saying he's "not a velocity guy" so I don't think he'd bother.

[drivlikejehu]

Every time you think Ryan can't possibly troll any harder, he outdoes himself.

 

Analytics is important, but it's completely beside the point when it comes to the Twins. They flat-out do not care about competing, period, end of story. The front office is 100% committed to the "Twins Way" as they see it and will never change their approach under any circumstances.

 

Ryan has been crystal clear on this point. No amount of losing will change his thinking in any way whatsoever. He's just utterly convinced that he's right and everyone else is wrong, a perception that he seems to enjoy.

[Winston Smith]

In all this talk did anyone ever hear Terry, Gardy or any other Twin employee say we want to win a World Series? The commitment to be the best is not there. All they ever say is we want to compete. We want to play meaningful games in September. By that standard this was a good year.

[Jim Crikket]

First, if I were Terry Ryan, I'd throw a million dollars more a year on advanced analytics, even if I weren't convinced myself of the value. At some point, you have to recognize most other teams are doing it, so it's value to you simply as "opposition research" is pretty critical. When I talk trades with an opposing GM, it would be worth a lot for my guys to have told me what kind of player that other GM values.

 

That said, I think a lot of people seem to be guilty of exactly what they accuse others of. The Giants won in 2012 so look at what they do with their advanced analysis and give those guys the credit. But if a team loses, then it can't possibly be the analysis that's to blame. It must have been injuries or underperformance or bad decisions or FO not heeding the analysts. Conversely, a team that wins despite doing little advanced analysis just lucked in to their success despite doing it wrong.

 

Ryan's staunch opposition to giving any sort of credence to advanced analytical research is frustrating to me. So is the staunch insistence, by some, that anyone who doesn't bow at the SABR alter doesn't know anything about evaluating baseball talent.

[old nurse]

I do not know why people would doubt that Ryan would have the scouts learn metrics. It actually makes sense as they are the ones evaluating players. It is not impossible to figure out. The math is no harder than algebra. The concept is baseball, that is the part they are supposed to understand.

[TheLeviathan]

Thank you Mackey....Ryan has had a series of maddening quotes lately. This organization is going to start feeling some serious heat for this arrogant, flippant garbage.

[Mike Sixel]

First, if I were Terry Ryan, I'd throw a million dollars more a year on advanced analytics, even if I weren't convinced myself of the value. At some point, you have to recognize most other teams are doing it, so it's value to you simply as "opposition research" is pretty critical. When I talk trades with an opposing GM, it would be worth a lot for my guys to have told me what kind of player that other GM values.

 

That said, I think a lot of people seem to be guilty of exactly what they accuse others of. The Giants won in 2012 so look at what they do with their advanced analysis and give those guys the credit. But if a team loses, then it can't possibly be the analysis that's to blame. It must have been injuries or underperformance or bad decisions or FO not heeding the analysts. Conversely, a team that wins despite doing little advanced analysis just lucked in to their success despite doing it wrong.

 

Ryan's staunch opposition to giving any sort of credence to advanced analytical research is frustrating to me. So is the staunch insistence, by some, that anyone who doesn't bow at the SABR alter doesn't know anything about evaluating baseball talent.

 

Excellent exaggeration and straw man at the end there. Who has ever said that?

 

And, one year does not a trend make, if SF continues to struggle, it won't be because of analytics, it will be because they applied them and the scouting both incorrectly.

[Brandon]

I am going to go on record as a big Terry Ryan supporter. First of all THe Twins are innovative. They were the first to take advantage of defense and bullpen strength as an inexpensive advantage to add wins. Another trademark is to limit walks and throw strikes. The problem right now is too many prospects aren't making it the way we hoped. Plouffe hasn't hit, Gibson hasnt made it yet, Hicks slumped badly, and Arcia strikes out way too much. Plus the Veterans this year didnt contribute as liked either Morneau, Willingham, and Doumit each had down season. However the Twins offseason moves all worked out to some degree. (Worely would be the exception but May has made incremental improvements). Corriea made the move to the AL way better than we expected, Pelfry was ok after the beginning of the season, the bullpen was stellar, Dedunno worked out till he was injured. The bottom line is this is a well run organization and hopefully the Twins will sign a piece or 2 over the winter and some of our prospects step up and develop and if there is a good platoon situation for 1B next season they do that (Colabello, Plouffe, Mauer, Parmelee). Somewhere within those 4 players is 2 that combine to make a good 1B and bat off the bench.

[howieramone1406390264]

Thank you Mackey....Ryan has had a series of maddening quotes lately. This organization is going to start feeling some serious heat for this arrogant, flippant garbage.

Sticks and stones. Winning takes care of everything and winning is not that far off. The Pirate and Royal Faithful waited forever, our wait will be much shorter and the ensuing success just as well deserved.

[Alex]

I am going to go on record as a big Terry Ryan supporter. First of all THe Twins are innovative. They were the first to take advantage of defense and bullpen strength as an inexpensive advantage to add wins. Another trademark is to limit walks and throw strikes. The problem right now is too many prospects aren't making it the way we hoped. Plouffe hasn't hit, Gibson hasnt made it yet, Hicks slumped badly, and Arcia strikes out way too much. Plus the Veterans this year didnt contribute as liked either Morneau, Willingham, and Doumit each had down season. However the Twins offseason moves all worked out to some degree. (Worely would be the exception but May has made incremental improvements). Corriea made the move to the AL way better than we expected, Pelfry was ok after the beginning of the season, the bullpen was stellar, Dedunno worked out till he was injured. The bottom line is this is a well run organization and hopefully the Twins will sign a piece or 2 over the winter and some of our prospects step up and develop and if there is a good platoon situation for 1B next season they do that (Colabello, Plouffe, Mauer, Parmelee). Somewhere within those 4 players is 2 that combine to make a good 1B and bat off the bench.

 

I'm not convinced they were the first to capitalize on the value of defense, and would argue the other way, that they value(d) defense too much (consistently trotting out no-hit middle infielder, getting rid of Hardy, who btw is a good defender AND could hit).

 

I also think they've over-valued the bullpen and especially the closer role (Ramos for Capps?).

 

As for platoon situations, well, did you get the chance to read the article where neither the manager nor general manager really believe in them?

[S.]

They were the first to take advantage of defense and bullpen strength as an inexpensive advantage to add wins. Another trademark is to limit walks and throw strikes.

I'm sorry, but utilizing a cheap bullpen, playing defense and trying to throw strikes and limit walks do not even remotely count as innovative. There are no teams in baseball who do not want to play good defense or avoid walks. There really are no teams spending an inordinate amount of money on their bullpen. Basically you just listed some things that every single team in baseball does, and the Twins don't even do those things very well.

[ThePuck]

Sticks and stones. Winning takes care of everything and winning is not that far off. The Pirate and Royal Faithful waited forever, our wait will be much shorter and the ensuing success just as well deserved.

 

And why will our wait be much shorter? You state it as fact, so why? Because of our farm system? Pitt and KC both had great farm systems for quite some time, especially KC. In fact, KC was the cool pick preseason after preseason to finally be relevant. They FINALLY were this year.

 

It's different with us because we're the Twins?

[Alex]

And why will our wait be much shorter? You state it as fact, so why? Because of our farm system? Pitt and KC both had great farm systems for quite some time, especially KC. In fact, KC was the cool pick preseason after preseason to finally be relevant. They FINALLY were this year.

 

It's different with us because we're the Twins?

 

I get how our prospects can create some hope, but with such a reliance on them and only one (maybe two) really good pitchers in the system I just don't see how anyone can be so confident the Twins will be winning anytime soon if that is all they rely on.

 

Right now the major league roster boasts one all-star, one promising player (Arcia), one who had a good September (Pinto) and a couple of decent relief pitchers. That's it. That leaves a ton of holes to fill before you get "winning" again.

[ThePuck]

I get how our prospects can create some hope, but with such a reliance on them and only one (maybe two) really good pitchers in the system I just don't see how anyone can be so confident the Twins will be winning anytime soon.

 

Blind faith. I don't understand how someone's blind faith can somehow be stated as fact though. Have blind faith, just don't try to pass it off as fact....that's all I'm sayin'.

[Shane Wahl]

This organization is totally insular and there is something just plain wrong with the obsession over promoting from within and retaining guys even though they are now proven failures.

[nicksaviking]

Ryan's staunch opposition to giving any sort of credence to advanced analytical research is frustrating to me. So is the staunch insistence, by some, that anyone who doesn't bow at the SABR alter doesn't know anything about evaluating baseball talent.

 

I don't think it's bowing to the SABR alter as much as it is being frustrated that the GM seems to willfully disregard it. The question isn't really whether SABR is good or bad for the Twins, the arguement is why wouldn't you at least put it to use like the rest of the league if this informational resource is available to you? The only harm in putting an effort into it is the pretty modest paycheck you need to pay the dataheads. It's like telling your teenager to wear his seatbelt and his reply is "Why, I'm a good driver and I don't need it?" Despite what some will say, stubborness is not a virtue, it inhibits evolution and inovation.

[LaBombo]

Sorry. No offense intended.

http://images.sodahead.com/polls/003119615/4351321193_Meet_linus_big_xlarge.gif

[LaBombo]

the argument is why wouldn't you at least put it to use like the rest of the league if this informational resource is available to you? The only harm in putting an effort into it is the pretty modest paycheck you need to pay the dataheads.

Even if the Twins were to totally disregard advanced metrics in evaluating their own talent, they'd be doing themselves a disservice if they didn't get at least a better grasp of them just to understand how other organizations evaluate and therefore value their own players, and to predict how they will approach free agency and the draft.

[John Bonnes]

I'm always hesitant to get too high on my horse about this issue, because the chasm between reality and perception is just so far apart. We're reading tea leaves here, people. I'll give an example.

 

If the Twins wanted to end this sort of article for good, the solution would be fairly easy - just go out and hire a high profile guy from Baseball Prospectus to serve as a consultant to their analytics area.

 

Instantly the perception would change. There would be a flood of stories about the Twins figuring things out. Better yet, hire that person as a spokesperson for what they're trying to accomplish, giving very little information but toeing the sabrmetric line on how important strikeouts are or how fx data can be used or catcher framing or the next hot topic. But it wouldn't necessarily change anything but the perception.

 

And my second point....

 

As I read this, I wondered if most of the teams mentioned - the Rays, Indians, Pirates, A's - also had something else in common: they went through a dry spell. And in each case, it lasted a lot longer than three years. And that includes the Twins back when they were getting rave reviews a half dozen years ago; they had success after a long dry spell too.

 

Perhaps success in MLB is just plain cyclical, and after a decade of success, there is going to be a dry spell while an organization reloads. That doesn't mean they shouldn't investigate ways to improve like Mackey is suggesting. They should. That's part of what losing teams should be doing that makes them better. But I'm hesitant to attach too much importance to visible hires of sabrmetric darlings.