The Mocks: 2014 MLB Draft (Twins Pick #5)

[Gernzy]

I always like taking the best player. We didn't need an OF when we took Buxton, and it looks like that should turn out well. Unless one of the stand-out pitchers is available though, I really think we should take Turner. SS is our weakness position depth wise. Turner could be the future.

[howieramone1406390264]

I always like taking the best player. We didn't need an OF when we took Buxton, and it looks like that should turn out well. Unless one of the stand-out pitchers is available though, I really think we should take Turner. SS is our weakness position depth wise. Turner could be the future.

 

I agree with you, always take the BPA. That said, I can't help noticing Turner looks like he may be available to us. A college SS some have said is close to major league ready would be hard to pass up. Turner is my #1 choice.

 

No one likes to lose, but there is a time and place. Buxton, Stewart, and Turner will help us all forget.

[gunnarthor]

I agree with BPA but I admit I hope it's not a short stop. I really hope another pitcher falls to us. Unless Turner is a healthy Tulowiski, I don't like gambling on a MI that high up in the draft.

[2wins87]

Turner is more in the Jose Reyes mold than Tulowitzki. Gap power with great speed and good defensive instincts. Considering short stop is arguably a greater area of need in the minors than pitcher is now I'd be very happy with Turner.

 

I'd also be very happy with one of the top pitchers or Alex Jackson.

[cmb0252]

If Turner can take a step forward this year and prove to scouts he is a true SS, then I'm in. While he doesn't bring power he brings everything else. Solid hit tool, takes walks, and has Buxton like speed. Enough said.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think right now I'd prefer Gatewood or Kolek (assuming something doesn't happen and the Twins can get an ace college pitcher). Turner doesn't excite me that much.

[InfraRen]

I like Gatewood, and I've kind of tuned him out since they think he'll be a 3B (with Sano in place) but I should think more BPA. By the time they get to majors, never know, players could be hurt/traded, etc.

 

That said, I'm still leaning pitcher if we can - Kolek if there, otherwise I do like Turner - I think he could be an awesome table-setter along with Buxton for Arcia, Sano, Mauer to drive in.

[nfisch22]

The more I read about these guys the more I hope for Jackson or Turner. Turner may not be that exciting but he has speed to burn and gives the Twins another solid position player with a very good glove at SS. Jackson looks like he could develop into another solid backstop but with power. Even if he fails at Catcher he can move to the OF where his bat and arm will fit just fine. He reminds me a little bit of Bryce Harper. A Catcher who if moved to the OF will move quicker through the system. Obviously he doesn't have the power or all around talent of Harper

[kab21]

If Turner can take a step forward this year and prove to scouts he is a true SS, then I'm in. While he doesn't bring power he brings everything else. Solid hit tool, takes walks, and has Buxton like speed. Enough said.

 

For me the questions are more about the hit tool and showing enough power to rack up doubles and triples with 5-10 HR's. Basically I need to see more Jose Reyes potential than Billy Hamilton (speed and walks with questionable hit tool, defense and little power). Obviously he won't be Reyes but maybe Rollins/Furcal.

[Vervehound]

i'm guessing the twins will be tempted mightily by aaron nola out of l.s.u. at #5. too much grit there to overlook and i'm guessing after following eades this year that they fell in love.

[cmb0252]

For me the questions are more about the hit tool and showing enough power to rack up doubles and triples with 5-10 HR's. Basically I need to see more Jose Reyes potential than Billy Hamilton (speed and walks with questionable hit tool, defense and little power). Obviously he won't be Reyes but maybe Rollins/Furcal.

 

Turner has a little loft in his swing so I can see him hitting a dozen home runs a year but not much more. What worries me is if he proves he is closer to Reyes he won't make it to us. Those damn white Sox love freak athletes. Either way this is a solid draft, especially at the top, and we should get an elite talent at 5.

[cmb0252]

i'm guessing the twins will be tempted mightily by aaron nola out of l.s.u. at #5. too much grit there to overlook and i'm guessing after following eades this year that they fell in love.

 

While Nola screams Twin's type player I just don't see him being a top 5 or top 10 talent. Ryan has gone for upside the last two drafts and I see him doing that again this year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Turner has a little loft in his swing so I can see him hitting a dozen home runs a year but not much more. What worries me is if he proves he is closer to Reyes he won't make it to us. Those damn white Sox love freak athletes. Either way this is a solid draft, especially at the top, and we should get an elite talent at 5.

 

Honestly Turner doesn't excite me unless something changes this spring. I'll be thrilled if the Sox take him.

[Kwak]

A top 5 selection should be used to draft a guy who might be great--a big "impact" player--and not on someone who is more likely to be a "good" player. Teams generally prioritize on: 1) probable sluggers huge HR guys; 2) "ace" starting pitchers; 3) the all-around guy .300 avg/ 20 HR/ defense/ speed. The Twins should do likewise--raise the projection bar, and look for a star!

[kab21]

A top 5 selection should be used to draft a guy who might be great--a big "impact" player--and not on someone who is more likely to be a "good" player. Teams generally prioritize on: 1) probable sluggers huge HR guys; 2) "ace" starting pitchers; 3) the all-around guy .300 avg/ 20 HR/ defense/ speed. The Twins should do likewise--raise the projection bar, and look for a star!

 

A .285 hitter that takes a walk with 40double/10HR power and 50+SB with acceptable SS defense is an "impact" player. Not to mention that he is a college player with a higher floor and is closer to the majors.

 

I wouldn't have a problem if the Sox took Turner because then it becomes more likely that one of the top pitchers drops.

[johnnydakota]

The Twins can always sign a decent shortstop in free agency, but how many true ACEs will this franchice sign in FA? besides withg a true ace you can trade him for 2 SS and a CF if need be

[kab21]

The Twins can always sign a decent shortstop in free agency, but how many true ACEs will this franchice sign in FA? besides withg a true ace you can trade him for 2 SS and a CF if need be

 

This is not true.

[amjgt]

Part of me wants to keep loading up the minors with potential aces, since the odds of us signing a true ace in the next decade seem remote, but

a) we have a lot of high upside pitchers in the low minors, and

Turner intrigues me

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Instead of BPA (best player available), this draft calls for the best college-level starting pitcher available (BCLSPA!). Reason? The depth of college-level talent in draft, the Twins need for starting pitching, and finally, this quote from Michael Lewis' Moneyball. as Billy Beane and the Oakland A's positioned themselves for the 2002 amateur draft:

(Bill James) looked into the history of the draft and discovered that ‘college players are a better investment than high school players by a huge, huge, laughably huge margin.’ The conventional wisdom of baseball insiders—that high school players were more likely to become superstars—was also demonstrably false... Paul DePodesta, the head of R & D for the Oakland A’s, made his own study of (Bill James’ theory). As a result of that study, the Oakland A’s front office, over the silent shrieks of their own older scouts were about to implement a radical new idea about young men and baseball (pgs. 98-99).

 

Four to watch between now and June:

 

Carlos Rodon, LHP, North Carolina State

Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina

Brandon Finnegan, LHP, Texas Christian

Tyler Beede, RHP, Vanderbilt

[maxisagod]

Well, here's hoping that enough elite guys have boom seasons in 2014 so the Twins can scoop up someone who could end up being the best talent at 5.

 

As for Turner, he has the most potential for a lead balloon drop down the charts than anyone. If his home run production drops, or an injury affects his speed or defense for a second year in a row, he'll be more of a top 15-20 pick. If he has a on year, than yeah he's a top five talent who looks good in our near future line up. But if Santana shows he's a great prospect this year or Polanco shows he can handle Short, will people still be pulling for him?

[beckmt]

I like Kodak, keep stocking those pitchers, you can live without a good or very good shortstop, do not see Turner rated as great or can't miss You probably have a 1 in 3 chance of pitchers that develop taken in the first two rounds, so you need as many of these as you can get.

[Kwak]

Instead of BPA (best player available)' date=' this draft calls for the best college-level starting pitcher available (BCLSPA!). Reason? The depth of college-level talent in draft, the Twins need for starting pitching, and finally, this quote from Michael Lewis' [i']Moneyball[/i]. as Billy Beane and the Oakland A's positioned themselves for the 2002 amateur draft:

(Bill James) looked into the history of the draft and discovered that ‘college players are a better investment than high school players by a huge, huge, laughably huge margin.’ The conventional wisdom of baseball insiders—that high school players were more likely to become superstars—was also demonstrably false... Paul DePodesta, the head of R & D for the Oakland A’s, made his own study of (Bill James’ theory). As a result of that study, the Oakland A’s front office, over the silent shrieks of their own older scouts were about to implement a radical new idea about young men and baseball (pgs. 98-99).

 

Four to watch between now and June:

 

Carlos Rodon, LHP, North Carolina State

Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina

Brandon Finnegan, LHP, Texas Christian

Tyler Beede, RHP, Vanderbilt

 

We can forget Rodon and Hoffman--they will be gone when the Twins select. Beede didn't want to sign last year, and command was reported as "an issue". Vague to be sure.

 

Among LHP Sean Newcomb has been touted above the others and is "...6'5", with mid-90's FB, and uses four-pitches." He had quite a bit of success in the Cape Cod League. Finnegan is a bit small (but then so is C.J. Wilson of the Angels!), but has more velocity than Newcomb and a plus slider. I would sure like to know more: mechanics, fielding skill, holding baserunners/pickoff move, and any past injury. But the twins need to reach for a "star" player, and not just a "safe", college pitcher.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

We can forget Rodon and Hoffman

 

The point is to see what happens between now and June, including a drop in performance by these two--to the point where they may be available at #5. Not likely, but a guy can dream, can't he?

[clutterheart]

This seems early. Every year there is a guy like Gray or even Bryant to a lesser extent who dominates to the extent they move up from 1st rounder, to top Pick.

 

I will wait until mid-college season to get too excited

[cmb0252]

This seems early. Every year there is a guy like Gray or even Bryant to a lesser extent who dominates to the extent they move up from 1st rounder, to top Pick.

 

I will wait until mid-college season to get too excited

 

It is never too early to talk the draft. Every year there are Buxton's and Harpers and Appels who stay at the top. While some top prospects will fall a majority will stay at the top. Jim Callis had an Ask BA about this.

[cmb0252]

Instead of BPA (best player available)' date=' this draft calls for the best college-level starting pitcher available (BCLSPA!). Reason? The depth of college-level talent in draft, the Twins need for starting pitching, and finally, this quote from Michael Lewis' [i']Moneyball[/i]. as Billy Beane and the Oakland A's positioned themselves for the 2002 amateur draft:

(Bill James) looked into the history of the draft and discovered that ‘college players are a better investment than high school players by a huge, huge, laughably huge margin.’ The conventional wisdom of baseball insiders—that high school players were more likely to become superstars—was also demonstrably false... Paul DePodesta, the head of R & D for the Oakland A’s, made his own study of (Bill James’ theory). As a result of that study, the Oakland A’s front office, over the silent shrieks of their own older scouts were about to implement a radical new idea about young men and baseball (pgs. 98-99).

 

Four to watch between now and June:

 

Carlos Rodon, LHP, North Carolina State

Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina

Brandon Finnegan, LHP, Texas Christian

Tyler Beede, RHP, Vanderbilt

Since 2002 the A's have had 27 first round picks/supplemental first round picks. From 2002-2011 they only drafted college players with Swisher, Blanton, and Hudson Street being the only true big leaguers. Sonny Gray looked great in limited time last year. Since 2012 they have drafted 4 players in the first/supplemental first round and they all were HS players. Almost 12 years later I don't see any validity to that study.

 

On the flip side after the 2013 draft BaseballAmerica released a series on the draft looking at HS vs College, value per draft position, and value per drafted players actual playing position. None of their data suggested that you shouldnt draft high school players. Obviously HS players have a higher bust rate, just as pitchers have a higher bust rate than position players. Risk vs reward.

 

Plain and simple, the Twins need to draft BPA regardless of position or proximity to the majors. Seems to be working out with Buxton for us and Russell for the A's.

[Joe A. Preusser]

The point is to see what happens between now and June' date=' including a drop in performance by these two--to the point where they may be available at #5. Not likely, but a guy can dream, can't he?[/quote']

 

Last year for a period of time I agonized of the "fact" that Manea wouldn't be available to the Twins at 4. Definitely a lot of time for changes to occur, but fun to start talking about it now.

[diehardtwinsfan]

To be clear, I have no issues drafting a SS with that pick. I agree with what someone else said in that at that pick, get an impact guy. I don't see Turner being that guy. If I had good reason to think he's a JJ Hardy (when he's hitting well), or Tulo, yes, I'd be all over that. Gatewood could be that, though there's questions about his defense. Turner seems more like a one trick pony. I want the ace.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Since 2002 the A's have had 27 first round picks/supplemental first round picks. From 2002-2011 they only drafted college players with Swisher, Blanton, and Hudson Street being the only true big leaguers. Sonny Gray looked great in limited time last year. Since 2012 they have drafted 4 players in the first/supplemental first round and they all were HS players. Almost 12 years later I don't see any validity to that study.

 

Oakland has drafted a college player in the first round with ten of their last twelve picks, since 2002—the last two years being the notable exceptions. In 2013, sixteen of their top twenty picks were college players—fourteen of twenty in 2012, but with five of the top seven picks being high schoolers. Those numbers are pretty close to the Twins,who picked fourteen of twenty college players in 2012, and sixteen of twenty in 2013.

Oakland’s College Draftees by year:

2011: 19 of 20; 2010; 15 of 20; 2009; 14 of 20; 2008: 16 of20; 2007: 18 of 20; 2006: 15 of 20; 2005: 13 of 20; 2004: 17 of 20; 2003: 20 of20; 2002: 20 of 20.

It appears that Oakland was more rigorous in their pursuit of college ballplayers in the early 2000’s. But even in 2002, several high school players were taken in the later rounds.

 

Given the potential pool of talent in June of 2014, I would be prejudiced toward drafting a college-level arm, without simply making that a default position. If 2014's version of Buxton or Russell are on the board, pick 'em. Problem is--unlike football and basketball drafts--talent scouts don't know if they have a Buxton or a bust until years later. That's why the statistics point toward betting on the college-level talent. That's where I'd lean, plain and simple.

[kab21]

Instead of BPA (best player available)' date=' this draft calls for the best college-level starting pitcher available (BCLSPA!). Reason? The depth of college-level talent in draft, the Twins need for starting pitching, and finally, this quote from Michael Lewis' [i']Moneyball[/i]. as Billy Beane and the Oakland A's positioned themselves for the 2002 amateur draft:

(Bill James) looked into the history of the draft and discovered that ‘college players are a better investment than high school players by a huge, huge, laughably huge margin.’ The conventional wisdom of baseball insiders—that high school players were more likely to become superstars—was also demonstrably false... Paul DePodesta, the head of R & D for the Oakland A’s, made his own study of (Bill James’ theory). As a result of that study, the Oakland A’s front office, over the silent shrieks of their own older scouts were about to implement a radical new idea about young men and baseball (pgs. 98-99).

 

Four to watch between now and June:

 

Carlos Rodon, LHP, North Carolina State

Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina

Brandon Finnegan, LHP, Texas Christian

Tyler Beede, RHP, Vanderbilt

 

That data was from 1.5 decades ago and it seems that it is not accurate any longer. Buxton and Stewart seem to be thought of pretty highly.