Gardy's Record

[spideyo]

I've started hearing the complaint come up again that Gardy can't win in the playoffs, and we'll never be a championship team under him. This argument always annoyed me, so I finally decided to actually look at the numbers.

 

In the 12 seasons he's managed the twins, they've gone to the playoffs 6 times. In the 41 seasons prior to that, the Twins made it to the playoffs 5 times, under four different managers.

 

Gardy may only have 6 wins in the postseason, but all other twins managers (other than TK) managed only 3 wins.

 

Speaking of TK, while he did have championship teams in 87 and 91, he only had three other winning seasons in his 15 years as Manager.

 

If my math is right, Gardy has been manager for a full 1/3 of all Twins winning seasons since they began play in 1961.

 

So how come people think he's so awful?

[Badsmerf]

Playoff have evolved to include 3 divisions with a wildcard (now a second wildcard) during his tenure. Only once during his regime did the Twins have the second-best record in the AL which would have qualified for the playoffs under the old format (and they got swept in the ALDS).

 

It isn't just his awful record either. The team looked scared and outmatched in every series. They hung their heads and quit. NY laughed and taunted the Twins and didn't get any kind of push back. Those are things that I put on the man leading the team. I would have fired him after the disgusting performance in 2006 (along with his issue with Lohse, Bartlett, Cuddy etc.). He should have never been allowed to lose another 6 straight playoff games.

[Mike Sixel]

So, he's good when the players are good, but its not his fault when the players are bad?

[gunnarthor]

So, he's good when the players are good, but its not his fault when the players are bad?

 

Or his good teams still managed to overachieve. And his bad teams should have been worse.

[gunnarthor]

Playoff have evolved to include 3 divisions with a wildcard (now a second wildcard) during his tenure. Only once during his regime did the Twins have the second-best record in the AL which would have qualified for the playoffs under the old format (and they got swept in the ALDS).

 

It isn't just his awful record either. The team looked scared and outmatched in every series. They hung their heads and quit. NY laughed and taunted the Twins and didn't get any kind of push back. Those are things that I put on the man leading the team. I would have fired him after the disgusting performance in 2006 (along with his issue with Lohse, Bartlett, Cuddy etc.). He should have never been allowed to lose another 6 straight playoff games.

 

Actually, I sure don't remember them looking scared and quitting. Sure, they weren't as good - esp the 87 win team that managed to lose three games to a 103 win team - but they didn't hang their heads and quit.

[ThePuck]

Or his good teams still managed to overachieve. And his bad teams should have been worse.

 

How did his good teams manage to overachieve? They had, for pretty much Gardy's tenure up to and including 2010, the best talent of any team in the AL Central.

[Mike Sixel]

It is a serious question, why do Gardy's supporters point out his winning seasons as proof he is good, but say these last three years do not show he is bad?

 

He had Santana (best pitcher), Mauer (best catcher/hitter/player), Morneau (MVP), Hunter (All star) and many other very good players, and won some games, and he's a good manager, but now that he doesn't have those players, he's still a good manager but just doesn't have good players around?

[gunnarthor]

How did his good teams manage to overachieve? They had, for pretty much Gardy's tenure up to and including 2010, the best talent of any team in the AL Central.

 

The 02-04 White Sox were better by RS and pyth w/l records. As were the 06 Tigers. (And the 09 Tigers were probably better, too). 2010 Twins were the only Twins team that was clearly the best team on paper.

[Death Rattle]

The 02-04 White Sox were better by RS and pyth w/l records. As were the 06 Tigers. (And the 09 Tigers were probably better, too). 2010 Twins were the only Twins team that was clearly the best team on paper.

 

So they won close games during that time and he's suddenly magic?

 

Well 2012 Buck Showalter was magic...how did he suddenly lose that ability in 2013?

[ThePuck]

I don't hold pyth projections as gospel. I think it's silly to do so. Looking at the actual talent on the teams, the Twins were usually the best team, talent-wise, in the division from 2002-2010.

[BHtwins]

They had a perennial Cy Young candidate and a solid young rotation a lights out bull pen, two former or future MVPS. If anything they underachieved. Those teams from 2004-2008 should have won the division. For sure I think the 2006 team had world series caliber talent. The 2007-2008 teams should have won the division but some big spending from rivals plus underperforming prevented it. the 2010 team is the only outlier from a talent perspective.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I've started hearing the complaint come up again that Gardy can't win in the playoffs, and we'll never be a championship team under him. This argument always annoyed me, so I finally decided to actually look at the numbers.

 

In the 12 seasons he's managed the twins, they've gone to the playoffs 6 times. In the 41 seasons prior to that, the Twins made it to the playoffs 5 times, under four different managers.

 

Gardy may only have 6 wins in the postseason, but all other twins managers (other than TK) managed only 3 wins.

 

Speaking of TK, while he did have championship teams in 87 and 91, he only had three other winning seasons in his 15 years as Manager.

 

If my math is right, Gardy has been manager for a full 1/3 of all Twins winning seasons since they began play in 1961.

 

So how come people think he's so awful?

 

Spideyo,

 

Making the playoffs has been a lower bar since the mid 1990s and the realignment.

 

I'd like you to compare Gardenhire with Terry Francona, Tom Kelly, and Joe Torre -- all of these managers won a World Series in their first year as manager, and in Francona's situation in Boston he broke the Babe's curse.

 

Each of those guys had at least as much success as Gardenhire. Those guys stepped aside when it was time. What makes Gardenhire's case so different that he can't be allowed to step aside when it's time to step aside?

 

Thanks.

[nicksaviking]

Or his good teams still managed to overachieve. And his bad teams should have been worse.

 

I don't totally disagree with this, some years the team was clearly better than their average talent, and the Twins likely have less talent now than the Cubs and White Sox yet still have a better (or same) record.

 

It still doesn't explain the terrible playoff outings however. I don't know that Gardy is to blame, but for at least a decade there has always seemed to be an "Aw shucks, just glad to be here" attitude with this franchise when they play the big-money, East Coast teams. Sure, the Twins likely would have always been the underdogs, but they should still have been able to win a game or two. I don't blame Gardy, but I don't like the underdog mentality this club tries to tattoo on itself and sell to the public. I want to lose that attitude, and if getting rid of it means getting rid of the manager, then I guess some eggs need to be broken to remake this omlette.

[gunnarthor]

I don't hold pyth projections as gospel. I think it's silly to do so. Looking at the actual talent on the teams, the Twins were usually the best team, talent-wise, in the division from 2002-2010.

 

Well, I was trying to supply facts. But ok. Those 02-04 White Sox had guys like Frank Thomas and Paul Konerko. Dye. Carlos Lee. Magglio Ordonez. Bartolo Colon. Buehrle. Garland (a top pitching prospect who had a nice career). Estaban Loiza came in 2nd in Cy Young voting. Generally had some strong bullpens w/Gordon and Koch. Contreras. That talent lapped MLB in 2005 but couldn't get past the Twins for several years beforehand.

 

I think you could make a case that if the 06 Twins had stayed healthy, they might have been better than the 06 Tigers but they didn't, so I don't think they were. The Tigers were a lot better in run differential, made the WS and had a really strong rotation (verlander, Bonderman, Rogers and Robertson were all 3 WAR or better guys). Bullpen w/Zumaya. Inge had a great year.

 

I'm not going to argue about the 2009 87 win Twins overall talent level.

 

I agree that the 2010 team was the best team in the central.

[ThePuck]

Well, I was trying to supply facts. But ok. Those 02-04 White Sox had guys like Frank Thomas and Paul Konerko. Dye. Carlos Lee. Magglio Ordonez. Bartolo Colon. Buehrle. Garland (a top pitching prospect who had a nice career). Estaban Loiza came in 2nd in Cy Young voting. Generally had some strong bullpens w/Gordon and Koch. Contreras. That talent lapped MLB in 2005 but couldn't get past the Twins for several years beforehand.

 

I think you could make a case that if the 06 Twins had stayed healthy, they might have been better than the 06 Tigers but they didn't, so I don't think they were. The Tigers were a lot better in run differential, made the WS and had a really strong rotation (verlander, Bonderman, Rogers and Robertson were all 3 WAR or better guys). Bullpen w/Zumaya. Inge had a great year.

 

I'm not going to argue about the 2009 87 win Twins overall talent level.

 

I agree that the 2010 team was the best team in the central.

 

The pyth isn't fact. It's an estimation of record based on runs scored and runs allowed...giving teams extra credit for blowout wins as if a win isn't a win. It's like the college football ranking system, considering points scored as part of the equation for determining who plays for the national championship. As if running the score up on severely weak teams proves anything.

[gunnarthor]

I don't totally disagree with this, some years the team was clearly better than their average talent, and the Twins likely have less talent now than the Cubs and White Sox yet still have a better (or same) record.

 

It still doesn't explain the terrible playoff outings however. I don't know that Gardy is to blame, but for at least a decade there has always seemed to be an "Aw shucks, just glad to be here" attitude with this franchise when they play the big-money, East Coast teams. Sure, the Twins likely would have always been the underdogs, but they should still have been able to win a game or two. I don't blame Gardy, but I don't like the underdog mentality this club tries to tattoo on itself and sell to the public. I want to lose that attitude, and if getting rid of it means getting rid of the manager, then I guess some eggs need to be broken to remake this omlette.

 

Keep in mind, the Twins weren't losing to run of the mill playoff teams. They lost to three teams that won 101 or more games during the season, another team that won 99. Two went on to win the WS. Only the 06 team had a better record than its opponent (and that series really hurt). It's tough to beat those sort of teams, esp if you're missing a Liriano, Morneau or Nathan. They did knock of one 103 win team but I would suspect that a 25% winning percentage against playoff teams w/over 100 wins is actually above average.

[ThePuck]

I don't totally disagree with this, some years the team was clearly better than their average talent, and the Twins likely have less talent now than the Cubs and White Sox yet still have a better (or same) record.

 

It still doesn't explain the terrible playoff outings however. I don't know that Gardy is to blame, but for at least a decade there has always seemed to be an "Aw shucks, just glad to be here" attitude with this franchise when they play the big-money, East Coast teams. Sure, the Twins likely would have always been the underdogs, but they should still have been able to win a game or two. I don't blame Gardy, but I don't like the underdog mentality this club tries to tattoo on itself and sell to the public. I want to lose that attitude, and if getting rid of it means getting rid of the manager, then I guess some eggs need to be broken to remake this omlette.

 

Hey is this true? From 2002-2011, the Yankees beat the Twins every time they faced them in the first round of the playoff...and lost to every other team they faced in the first round of the playoffs

[whydidnt]

I like to think that perhaps Gardy was a good manager and still could be, but for whatever reason, he is not currently pushing the right buttons and his teams have been terrible for 3 straight years. IMO, Gary has never been a great tactical manager, but he had a track record of getting results out of guys. It seems he isn't doing that as well with the current crop of Twins. I don't think he is fully to blame for their results of the last 3 years, but I do think other managers may have been able to get a few more wins, especially in the 2nd half of the season, as it seems the Twins have completely imploded down the stretch in each of our lousy years under him. 3 straight horrible years is enough for me to say it's time to try a different approach. Really, it can't get any worse can it?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Keep in mind, the Twins weren't losing to run of the mill playoff teams.

 

Gunnarthor,

 

How many playoff series did the Yankees win between beating the Twins in '04 and beating the Twins in '09?

[gunnarthor]

Gunnarthor,

 

How many playoff series did the Yankees win between beating the Twins in '04 and beating the Twins in '09?

 

So, because the 07 lost the 04 Yankees were just a run of the mill team?

[Boom Boom]

I've heard the refrain that Gardy "gets the most from what he has", but I think that his good teams, especially the early 2000s teams, had more talent than people give them credit for, and the players were frequently underrated.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

So, because the 07 lost the 04 Yankees were just a run of the mill team?

 

Maybe not run of the mill, but definitely not special.

 

The 2009 Yankees was a nice swan song for Jeter Rivera Pettitte et al but they weren't necessarily destined. The Twins could have at least put up a fight that year if they had any fight in them.

 

The answer was zero, by the way. The Yankees won zero playoff series between 2004 and 2009. Thanks for playing Gardenhire trivia, we have some nice parting gifts.

[gunnarthor]

I've heard the refrain that Gardy "gets the most from what he has", but I think that his good teams, especially the early 2000s teams, had more talent than people give them credit for, and the players were frequently underrated.

 

Maybe. And maybe that credit goes to Gardy. Jauque Jones, AJ, Lohse, Koskie, Lew Ford (had one really nice season), Keilty (played well enough to get traded for Stewart), etc were never highly regarded prospects. Guys like Everyday Eddie and LaTroy Hawkins emerged when he came in. But as I posted somewhere else, it's pretty arguable that those 02-04 White Sox had more talent.

[spideyo]

I'd like you to compare Gardenhire with Terry Francona, Tom Kelly, and Joe Torre -- all of these managers won a World Series in their first year as manager, and in Francona's situation in Boston he broke the Babe's curse.

 

Each of those guys had at least as much success as Gardenhire. Those guys stepped aside when it was time.

 

 

I think you need to do a little more research. Let's look at your three examples.

 

Joe Torre:

Mets: 77-81, fired without having a single winning season.

Braves: 82-84, made the NLCS his first year, but each record declined each of the next two seasons an he was fired.

Did not manage 85-90

Cardinals: 91-95, winning records his first three seasons but no playoff slots, fired in June of 95

Yankees: 96-07, had a lot of success, but also had arguably some of the best teams ever assembled playing for him, including several known juicers. Turned down a one year contract that seemed like an insult from Steinbrenner.

Dodgers: 2008-2010, had some post season success, retired in 2010 at the age of 70, 50 years after his baseball career began.

 

Terry Francona:

Phillies: 97-00, fired after four straight years of losing

Did not manage: 01-03

Red Sox: 04-11, won a couple titles and had a lot of success, but ultimately got fired after the Red Sox collapsed and he apparently lost respect and control in the clubhouse

Did not manage: 2012

Indians: 13-present, so far so good

 

Tom Kelly:

Twins: 86-01, in his second season as manager (first full season), won the World Series with a team that had one of the worst winning percentages and run differential of any World Series team. After the amazing 91 season, presided over a long depressing decline, and eventually resigned amidst discussions of the league's plan to eliminate the Twins franchise entirely.

 

So there you have it. Torre and Francona have both been fired repeatedly, neither of them winning, well, anything at all with the first team they managed. Francona never "stepped aside", TK only retired when it looked like the entire team would be gone after that season, and Torre was on his fifth team as a manager, and going into his 6th decade in baseball.

 

Compare that to Gardy. He will be going into his 13th year with the Twins, a longer tenure than Torre had with the Yankees, and only two seasons short of TK's tenure.

 

TK most certainly did NOT have more success then Gardy, when you view his managerial career as a whole. Including this year, Francona has now led teams to post season play 6 times, same as Gardy, but 5 of those were wild card slots, whereas all of Gardy's teams won their division.

Yes, Torre has had more success than Gardy, but he only made it to the post season once in his first thirteen years of managing.

 

With the exception of World Series rings, I think Gardy compares pretty well to these guys. He hasn't been fired, he hasn't had a complete clubhouse meltdown, and he's certainly had more consistent success than TK ever did.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

TK most certainly did NOT have more success then Gardy, when you view his managerial career as a whole.

 

Including this year, Francona has now led teams to post season play 6 times, same as Gardy, but 5 of those were wild card slots, whereas all of Gardy's teams won their division.

 

Yes, Torre has had more success than Gardy, but he only made it to the post season once in his first thirteen years of managing.

 

With the exception of World Series rings, I think Gardy compares pretty well to these guys. He hasn't been fired, he hasn't had a complete clubhouse meltdown, and he's certainly had more consistent success than TK ever did.

 

I asked for it, I got it. Whereas I was reflecting on the bigger picture and the relative normality of occasionally needing to part ways with a good manager, you managed to get down into the gritty details to argue that Ron Gardenhire not only belongs in the pantheon of the best managers of our generation, but even excels them in many key respects, and you backed it up with numbers. I'm still not swayed though. I would have thought a change was the right thing to do. We'll see.

[spideyo]

What can I say, I had a slow day at work.

 

Really what they should do now is send Gardy to Venezuela or Dominican Republic for the winter so he can learn some Spanish and find an assistant hitting coach that can relate to Pinto/Florimon/Ramirez/Rosario/Sano/Arcia/Escobar

[LaBombo]

With the exception of World Series rings, I think Gardy compares pretty well to these guys. He hasn't been fired, he hasn't had a complete clubhouse meltdown, and he's certainly had more consistent success than TK ever did.

It's pretty hard to think of any manager with no playoff success who is widely regarded as one of the elites of his generation. Maybe that's as unfair as not considering players on non-contenders for the MVP award, but that seems to be the prevailing attitude almost everywhere.

 

But even if that comparison is conceded, what does it have to do with not firing Gardenhire? Managers who amass nearly 300 losses in 3 seasons are fired. In the incredibly rare postwar instances that they have not, they have all lost 90+ games again and gotten fired the following year, usually during the season. All but one.

 

Tom Kelly is the only manager since WWII to continue managing his team after four 90+ loss seasons. He did it for one year. If the best comp to defend Gardenhire with is a single-season aberration of historical proportions, isn't that extraordinarily compelling evidence that Gardenhire doesn't belong in the Twins' dugout any more?

[jm3319]

With the exception of World Series rings, I think Gardy compares pretty well to these guys. He hasn't been fired, he hasn't had a complete clubhouse meltdown, and he's certainly had more consistent success than TK ever did.

 

This is a HUGE exception.....

 

Sure, they're pretty similar if you ignore the MULTIPLE CHAMPIONSHIP SEASONS.....no big deal.

[ThePuck]

This is a HUGE exception.....

 

Sure, they're pretty similar if you ignore the MULTIPLE CHAMPIONSHIP SEASONS.....no big deal.

 

So, Mrs. Lincoln, besides THAT, how did you like the play?

[jm3319]

With the exception of World Series rings, I think Gardy compares pretty well to these guys. He hasn't been fired, he hasn't had a complete clubhouse meltdown, and he's certainly had more consistent success than TK ever did.

 

 

Also, I'd personally trade 10 winning seasons or post season births for one championship. Probably more than ten. There's something to be said for winning divisions and making the playoffs....but I'd be totally fine with the Twins/Vikings/Wild being the worst team in all of sports for 10 years if they just won one lousy championship. (I wasn't alive or living in Minnesota for their 2 WS wins)