Article: Twins Must Shake Loser Mentality This Offseason

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2375-Twins-Must-Shake-Loser-Mentality-This-Offseason

[MarshalltheIrish]

As one who's conditioned to the 2015-2017 mindset, I still agree with plenty here. Except for retaining Gardy. Like him or not, I think there's more than enough of a case for him leaving and bringing in a new manager to inject new ways of thinking. Preferably from the outside. Dave Martinez, Chip Hale, and Matt Williams are my top three choices. But even then it wouldn't matter as much if they don't take some chances with free agency.

[TheLeviathan]

Well said.

[drivlikejehu]

Here's the problem with the article:

 

The Twins may be in a rather dire situation presently, but contention in 2014 is hardly some implausible dream scenario -- IF the front office is prepared to make such a commitment.

 

We know for an absolute fact that the front office/ownership is not prepared to make such a commitment. It is just complete fantasy to suggest it is even a remote possibility. You are talking about what could be in alternate universe - and definitely have good points in that regard - but they have no bearing on the world as it is.

 

Most Twins fans are over-optimistic because they don't realize that even a few very talented young position players isn't enough to revive this team. So the situation is actually far worse than having to wait things out a couple more years- it is more akin to the early stages of the Pirates long drought.

 

The Twins are a cash generation tool for the Pohlad family. Any thoughts on what could happen have to be fully compatible with that reality.

[IdahoPilgrim]

Nice article, and I thought very realistic, pro and con.

 

And I respectfully disagree with the previous commenter.

[Badsmerf]

As someone that is skeptical of all Twins pitching prospects not named Stewart, I feel likewise that the situation is dire indeed. Unless talent is acquired through FA, this regime will never go deep into the playoffs. Unlike what Terry Ryans wants Twins fans to believe, waiting for uber prospects to develop is setting yourself up for failure. The Royals and Pirates are finally seeing some success after years and years of this. I don't want to go a decade without a winning season. Unless the FO makes some moves this offseason, it will already be 4 years of terrible horrible sickening baseball. All the while having the ability to sign guys to help be competitive and not doing so. Unacceptable.

 

Many of the moves Cleveland did are moves I've seen some posters here at TD scream for until they are blue in the face every offseason (I'll take my bow). Moderate risk with high reward players, solid FA signs, management changes, that is how you can turn teams around. I feel like the 2013 Indians are going to be referenced a lot in the coming years about how to take a bad team and pull a 180.

[Dman]

If the Twins would go after top talent in FA then I would be on board with 2014. The 2013 team competed for for the first two months of the season so with some better pitching and better hitting with runners on base they could improve dramatically. The thing is TR isn't a believer in FA and we don't have a lot of pitching help on the horizon so next year is this year plus maybe see some of the younger prospects at various points in the season.

 

2015 is the earliest time frame for your scenario in my mind unless they find better pitching somewhere and a lot of it.

[howieramone1406390264]

As someone that is skeptical of all Twins pitching prospects not named Stewart, I feel likewise that the situation is dire indeed. Unless talent is acquired through FA, this regime will never go deep into the playoffs. Unlike what Terry Ryans wants Twins fans to believe, waiting for uber prospects to develop is setting yourself up for failure. The Royals and Pirates are finally seeing some success after years and years of this. I don't want to go a decade without a winning season. Unless the FO makes some moves this offseason, it will already be 4 years of terrible horrible sickening baseball. All the while having the ability to sign guys to help be competitive and not doing so. Unacceptable.

 

Many of the moves Cleveland did are moves I've seen some posters here at TD scream for until they are blue in the face every offseason (I'll take my bow). Moderate risk with high reward players, solid FA signs, management changes, that is how you can turn teams around. I feel like the 2013 Indians are going to be referenced a lot in the coming years about how to take a bad team and pull a 180.

Congratulations to the Indians for winning their last 10 games and making the play-offs. Obviously I don't know, but I view them as the flavor of the day, and I don't see anything that is sustainable. An OP referenced 7 articles in another thread, where the national media lauded our very own Twins for the strength of our farm system and progress made in the rebuilding effort.

[Badsmerf]

Congratulations to the Indians for winning their last 10 games and making the play-offs. Obviously I don't know, but I view them as the flavor of the day, and I don't see anything that is sustainable. An OP referenced 7 articles in another thread, where the national media lauded our very own Twins for the strength of our farm system and progress made in the rebuilding effort.

 

I'm not going to respond with an elaborate post (which I deleted) to lay out why the Twins are in trouble for years to come if they rely simply on prospects. What I am going to do, is reiterate that it doesn't work very well. Prospects fail all the time, or take much longer to develop than hoped for (see HR leader Chris Davis). It is naive to think everything will be ok once the premiere talent comes up. There are philosophical problems with this organization that prevent them from winning. Unless major changes happen (like they did in Cleveland), we are destined for failure. A great farm system wont change a 95 loss team.

[howieramone1406390264]

I'm not going to respond with an elaborate post (which I deleted) to lay out why the Twins are in trouble for years to come if they rely simply on prospects. What I am going to do, is reiterate that it doesn't work very well. Prospects fail all the time, or take much longer to develop than hoped for (see HR leader Chris Davis). It is naive to think everything will be ok once the premiere talent comes up. There are philosophical problems with this organization that prevent them from winning. Unless major changes happen (like they did in Cleveland), we are destined for failure. A great farm system wont change a 95 loss team.

It is patently false to think that philosophical problems with this organization will prevent them from winning and a great farm system won't change a 95 loss team.

[TheLeviathan]

It is patently false to think that philosophical problems with this organization will prevent them from winning and a great farm system won't change a 95 loss team.

 

The only thing false is the narrative that our great farm is certain to change it. It is most definitely not certain. Smerf is just pointing out that prospects alone, without the willingness to trade or sign aggressively, will also likely fail to deliver a winner. Or it is significantly more difficult.

 

until shown otherwise, this GM and this franchise have earned no trust they will do either of those things. Nicks article speaks to this as well. Waiting for everything to magically come together perfectly is only a good recipe to do more waiting.

[Badsmerf]

It is patently false to think that philosophical problems with this organization will prevent them from winning and a great farm system won't change a 95 loss team.

Farm systems don't win MLB games is my point. The Royals were considered to have a top farm system for years and finally finished over .500 for the second time since 1994. O yeah, and they signed Santana and traded a top prospect for Shields to get there. They also have under-performing top prospects that they planned on being big contributors.

 

Why do you feel everyone should just wait while our MLB team has been a bottom 5 team for 3 years with little to no changes to the people that drove them off that cliff?

[howieramone1406390264]

The only thing false is the narrative that our great farm is certain to change it. It is most definitely not certain. Smerf is just pointing out that prospects alone, without the willingness to trade or sign aggressively, will also likely fail to deliver a winner. Or it is significantly more difficult.

 

until shown otherwise, this GM and this franchise have earned no trust they will do either of those things. Nicks article speaks to this as well. Waiting for everything to magically come together perfectly is only a good recipe to do more waiting.

Millions of loyal and knowledgeable Twins fans, still recall the 1st Ryan rebuild and the domination of the Central that followed. What evidence do you have that the GM and the franchise have earned no trust?

[TheLeviathan]

Millions of loyal and knowledgeable Twins fans, still recall the 1st Ryan rebuild and the domination of the Central that followed. What evidence do you have that the GM and the franchise have earned no trust?

 

Please reread the post you responded to while trying to see what "either of those two things" might be referring to and then respond. Your response here is totally irrelevant to my point.

[savvyspy]

Millions of loyal and knowledgeable Twins fans, still recall the 1st Ryan rebuild and the domination of the Central that followed. What evidence do you have that the GM and the franchise have earned no trust?

 

Exhibit A: That they've convinced you that "domination" of the Central is akin to actually competing for a title.

 

Exhibit B: That you define "domination" as a team that has won exactly 0 playoff series in 10 years

 

Exhibit C: This organization has lost over 280 games in the past three seasons and are still snowing the local media and Twins bloggers that Free Agency isn't needed even though there isn't one team that made the playoffs in either league that doesn't use it at all to supplement their rosters. Its a flat out lie that free agency isn't a valid way to build a winner. For every Oakland (who still actually use free agency effectively) there are dozens of teams (NY, BOS, TEX, CAL, CHW, CLE, LAD, SF, STL, PHI, ATL, WAS) that have built winners in the last decade using free agents to supplement their teams. And Oakland isn't even a valid example for the Twins because Oakland knows how to develop pitching which this organization hasn't done since Brad Radke.

[JB_Iowa]

You do not change the culture of an organization by leaving all of the management in place.

 

This franchise is moribund.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Meyer, May, etc. have some real skills. Unfortunately, there is a mountain of evidence suggesting that after spending time with Anderson their SO/9 rate will drop significantly, not to return until they leave the Twins for another team.

 

Santana is the only pitcher I can find for whom this wasn't true.

[nicksaviking]

Millions of loyal and knowledgeable Twins fans, still recall the 1st Ryan rebuild and the domination of the Central that followed. What evidence do you have that the GM and the franchise have earned no trust?

 

The 1st rebuild? The one with Rich Becker, Frankie Rodriguez and Dave Stevens? Yeah that was lights out. In Ryan's 1st rebuild the team finished 4th or 5th in the division five straight seasons. I think you are remembering his second rebuild despite the fact I've brought up the utter failure of the first one (again, due to the inability to develop and acquire proper pitching) to you multiple times. Ryan only has a 50% success rate in rebuilds thus far. You have no basis to continue these blind faith arguements, please start providing some supporting evidence in your arguments.

[howieramone1406390264]

The 1st rebuild? The one with Rich Becker, Frankie Rodriguez and Dave Stevens? Yeah that was lights out. In Ryan's 1st rebuild the team finished 4th or 5th in the division five straight seasons. I think you are remembering his second rebuild despite the fact I've brought up the utter failure of the first one (again, due to the inability to develop and acquire proper pitching) to you multiple times. Ryan only has a 50% success rate in rebuilds thus far. You have no basis to continue these blind faith arguements, please start providing some supporting evidence in your arguments.

You call it the second, I call it the first. Prove me wrong.

[Adam Krueger]

Like others here have said - counting on farm-system talent alone to turn this organization around is foolhardy at best. Look at the Royals, for example, and how many prospects they had just a couple of years ago and how much they have struggled just to get back to being a .500 team. A true turn-around for this franchise will involve that farm-system talent that the Twins have, but it will also require significant moves from the Front Office in terms of signing quality free-agents and over-hauling the starting pitching staff. Theo Epstein did not turn the Red Sox around by simply relying on Minor League talent...he augmented the talent he had with savvy free-agent signings and built that World Series team by approaching the problem from both the top and bottom. The story, if the Twins hope to really turn this organization around, will be a similar one here.

[howieramone1406390264]

Like others here have said - counting on farm-system talent alone to turn this organization around is foolhardy at best. Look at the Royals, for example, and how many prospects they had just a couple of years ago and how much they have struggled just to get back to being a .500 team. A true turn-around for this franchise will involve that farm-system talent that the Twins have, but it will also require significant moves from the Front Office in terms of signing quality free-agents and over-hauling the starting pitching staff. Theo Epstein did not turn the Red Sox around by simply relying on Minor League talent...he augmented the talent he had with savvy free-agent signings and built that World Series team by approaching the problem from both the top and bottom. The story, if the Twins hope to really turn this organization around, will be a similar one here.

Theo took over a team which won 92 games the year before and was blessed with the 2nd highest payroll in baseball. Read up on what he just said his free agent approach will be this winter. It sounded Ryanesque to me.

[nicksaviking]

You call it the second, I call it the first. Prove me wrong.

 

Matt Lawton, Brad Radke, Denny Hocking, Eddie Guardado and LaTroy Hawkins were the only players on the 1996 team and the 2001 team. That's one regular position player and one member of the rotation. Those were two completely different clubs.

 

Your turn.

[TheLeviathan]

You have no basis to continue these blind faith arguements, please start providing some supporting evidence in your arguments.

 

Evidence is less important when truth is a secondary concern, so you are likely barking up the wrong tree.

[howieramone1406390264]

Matt Lawton, Brad Radke, Denny Hocking, Eddie Guardado and LaTroy Hawkins were the only players on the 1996 team and the 2001 team. That's one regular position player and one member of the rotation. Those were two completely different clubs.

 

Your turn.

 

Feel free to use your definition, I'll feel free to use mine. I say it was a continuation, but if there is a definitive law of where one rebuild ends and another starts under the same GM, please provide said link.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I happen to think TR's first tenure could count as one rebuild. However, it was a slow painful one (6 losing seasons under TR) before 2001.

 

It seemed less painful at the time because we were all distracted by Don Beaver, the threat of contraction, the threat of player strikes, ballpark lobbying, etc. And most of all, the lack of Twins Daily.

 

Unfortunately, it seems like TR is choosing a very similar approach to the current rebuild. We're already at 3 losing seasons (2 under TR) and unless we take serious, unprecedented action on the FA front soon, will likely be at 5 losing seasons in a row before our top prospects even break camp with the big club.

 

And that strategy, to this fan, feels a bit unacceptable, given the financial resources this club has at its disposal (the lack of which was a key reason the last rebuild took so long, and even why the ensuing success soon seemed underwhelming).

[jokin]

Exhibit A: That they've convinced you that "domination" of the Central is akin to actually competing for a title.

 

Exhibit B: That you define "domination" as a team that has won exactly 0 playoff series in 10 years

 

Exhibit C: This organization has lost over 280 games in the past three seasons and are still snowing the local media and Twins bloggers that Free Agency isn't needed even though there isn't one team that made the playoffs in either league that doesn't use it at all to supplement their rosters. Its a flat out lie that free agency isn't a valid way to build a winner. For every Oakland (who still actually use free agency effectively) there are dozens of teams (NY, BOS, TEX, CAL, CHW, CLE, LAD, SF, STL, PHI, ATL, WAS) that have built winners in the last decade using free agents to supplement their teams. And Oakland isn't even a valid example for the Twins because Oakland knows how to develop pitching which this organization hasn't done since Brad Radke.

 

Good case made, counselor, might I add:

 

Exhibit A: The AL Central was easily the worst division in the American League...and arguably the worst in baseball for most, if not all, of the decade of the 00s. The organization and it's unconditional backers are either less scrupulous, self-deluding, or both in failing to recognize that achieving 94 wins in the AL Central meant little in terms of how the power had shifted to the AL West, and especially the AL East as the decade wore on, with significant improvements from top to botom in the East.... with only the Tigers making the necessary changes, such as hiring Leyland and adopting the necessary philosophies and commitment to remaining perenially competitive.

 

 

Exhibit B: It's actually been 11 years now since the "dominating" team won a playoff series in 2002

 

Exhibit C: It's officially 291 losses in the last 3 seasons-- which averages out to 97 losses per year. This season's 96 loss total would have been worse if not for the addition of the Astros to the schedule for 6 games, plus a very weak NL schedule. Without those "scheduling aids", not only could the Twins have easily topped 100 losses, they likely would have had even worse pitching and batting stats (ie, their MLB-worst SP ERA of 5.26 would have easily exceeded last year's 5.40 number, thus no improvement whatsoever for all of Ryan's promise of focusing his total attention on the matter.........and their offensive strikeout total, already 3rd worst all-time, easily could have been closer to worst ever, lowest team BA since 1968 [the Year of the Pitcher], etc.).

 

There is no evidence that has been presented from the other side that managment and ownership finally "gets it", to the contrary, they are obviously convinced that "staying the course" and accepting a yet-to-be determined number of future seasons of futility, until it somehow miraculously "clicks", is entirely acceptable.

[drivlikejehu]

Jokin, I agree with you except I don't think there is another "side." For instance, the Twins had horrible starting pitching in 2012; there is no rational argument otherwise and so it's false to portay that discussion as two-sided.

 

To the extent Ryan or someone else denies an obvious, undeniable fact, the only possible explanations are extreme ignorance or some form of dishonesty. Logically there is no other option. I'm all for devil's advocacy and what not, but this is like arguing over whether the Earth revolves around the sun.

[Shane Wahl]

Everyone (players and coaches) back next year except maybe adding Phil Hughes and cycling through filler players like Roenicke. Good luck with that, Twins.

[Alex]

Congratulations to the Indians for winning their last 10 games and making the play-offs. Obviously I don't know, but I view them as the flavor of the day, and I don't see anything that is sustainable. An OP referenced 7 articles in another thread, where the national media lauded our very own Twins for the strength of our farm system and progress made in the rebuilding effort.

 

I think you could make an argument that the Twins are in worse shape than the Indians, especially in terms of pitching.

[LaBombo]

You do not change the culture of an organization by leaving all of the management in place.

 

This franchise is moribund.

 

Great word. It's not just moribund, it's http://www.proggnosis.com/covers/G/G33810.jpg moribund.