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Terry Ryan last appearance on Inside Twins


raindog

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But you KNOW that they don't look at their money as "unlimited" so there is no point to be made there.

 

On no planet is Mike Pelfrey a 3.

 

+1

 

Pelfrey is a 4 on a good day, and he only has good days every other game. Gibson is a 5. Corriea is a 4/5. We need a 1 and a 2 if we want to get back to being competitive.

 

I would not bring Pelfrey back for more than one year. And I would worry about the typical dead arm guys get in the second year back from TJ when they pitch a lot of innings the first year back. So we better not count on him for much.

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Shane - agree on Garza. Cannot imagine he would ever go to a team where Anderson was the pitching coach.

 

I don't know what they will do with Gardy, but I would be surprised if Anderson is still with the team after this year. Three years with under performing staffs is about the limit for pitching coaches.

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There's a lot worse options in the FA market than Pelfrey, and while he's not my first choice, a 1 year deal isn't something I'd cry about. I think he's going to have a bounce back season similar to Pavano the year after he was traded to the Twins. Hopefully, they capitalize and flip him at the deadline for a prospect.

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The twins should have Gibson, pelfrey and Correia as there 3/4/5 and go out and bring in two of josh Johnson, Ervin Santana, tim lincecum, etc etc to be the 1 and 2's

 

I'd love it if the Twins do this, with the only caveat that I'd rather see one of Correia (trade him) or Pelfrey and Meyer as their number 3. And between Correia and Pelfrey I prefer Pelfrey because of his velocity, K/9, age, potential upside after TJ & many mentions of clubhouse leadership presence. But having them both in the expence of Meyer, no way.

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I just read an article where the Twins are 10th in season tickets sold and 17th in total tickets sold. With Sano and Buxton on the way, I can't imagine it's a major concern.

 

I just read an article that quoted Rob Antony saying that season ticket sales dropped 20% in 2013 year over year from 2012, after a similar drop in 2012 versus 2011. I tend to think that thiis trend is a major concern and part of the reason why the payroll has and will continue to shrink.

 

17th in total tickets sold, with all other trends clearly headed downwards? I can't imagine how it wouldn't be a major concern. Sano and Buxton aren't going to save this franchise in the long run without major, sweeping changes in philosophy and management.

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I don't know what they will do with Gardy, but I would be surprised if Anderson is still with the team after this year. Three years with under performing staffs is about the limit for pitching coaches.

 

Yes, tis true, but.....3 years of 90+ losses is about the limit for any non-expansion team manager except if you are in charge of the MN Twins, so Andy being automatically considered a goner is a problematic proposition at best, Gardy and Andy seem joined at the hip.

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I don't know why anyone is concerned about money, right now the Twins have almost unlimited gold. I don't care if Pelfrey comes back or not, but having 3 heathly pitchers like Correia, Gibson, and Pelfrey, who can take the ball every 5 days is far from the worst way to start a rotation.

 

An OP posted an article about the definitions of 1's, 2's, 3's etc. One of the examples used by the author for a 3 was Pelfrey.

 

Seriously, your bolded comments above need a /sarc tag qualifier, if you wish to continue to persist in your train of thought. Check the respective upper atmospheric ERAs of Pelf and Gibson and then check Correia's career stats and his wild fluctuations year over year from bad to good and back to bad again. This trio should not be any team's solid core, even if 100% healthy. And as much as I personally like Pelfrey who seems like a stand-up guy, on what planet would he ever be considered a #3? Unfortunatley, like you, TR probably considers them as such, and will "build around them" with Duensing, DeVries, Deduno, Swarzak, Albers, Hernandez, yadda, yadda, yuck.

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Whatever fans think, the simple fact - stated in countless ways, countless times- is that the Twins are fine with the status quo. They think their way is the 'right' way and have all kinds of excuses and justifications for why they have fallen so badly.

 

I don't think the clock will even start ticking on the current management until the prospect wave arrives and the losses continue unabated. What's truly devastating is that the greatest commodity of a talented young player is those seasons in which he is ultra cheap. But the Twins won't be able to take advantage.

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I don't have a problem bringing Pelfrey back as long as he's one of three free agents they bring in and the other two are Ervin Santana and Matt Garza.

 

Yes, this is the problem. If Pelfrey is brought back along with two pitchers significantly better than him, no one would take issue. The problem is that Ryan almost certainly will not do so meaning Mike Pelfrey would likely be one of the top free agents the Twins sign next year which obviously should be unacceptable to all fans.

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But you KNOW that they don't look at their money as "unlimited" so there is no point to be made there.

 

On no planet is Mike Pelfrey a 3.

 

Sorry for stepping on your "astronomical" analogy, Shane. I posted before reading the entire thread.

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I caught the last part of Ryan's last appearance this morning.

 

One thing has gone unmentioned. At the very end Ryan mentioned that the Twins had won once all season, one single time, on the Friday prior to Terry Ryan coming on the show. It was an unprompted comment and was said in a light context, and Mackay was caught off guard but went with the joke. But then Ryan again said words to the effect of "one win on Fridays, something's gotta give".

 

I'd like to think it was a signal to expect a major announcement, but then again it's probably just me projecting meaning on a meaningless remark. Hey, in desperate times we grasp whatever straws we can.

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It is easy to solve our pitching problem when speaking theoretically. How many 1s/2s are available? Who would you get specifically? Let's keep in mind that there are only a couple teams in MLB that would not want to add a 1 or a 2 and they all have an extra $25M this year.

 

Tanaka – I like the idea but I fear the TV money is going to make the bidding on him crazy. It would be great but it is unrealistic to think we are going to outbid several teams with far deeper pockets.

 

Shields – KC has an option and will exercise it.

 

Jimenez – He has been good this year but his 2013 ERA is about 2 full runs better than 2012/2011. That’s a bit scary but he is probably our best shot.

 

Kuroda – Are we going to outbid the Yankees?

 

Lincecum – His aggregate ERA for the past 2 years is 4.79. Not really even close to as good as Correia. I don't for the life of me understand the love.

 

Hughes – He has been up and down. His aggregate ERA over ERA over the past 4 years is 4.66. Pelfrey’s 4 years prior to TJ averaged 4.27.

 

Johnson is high risk/reward. Great signing if we have two others we can’t count on at least in theory.

 

Lester – Red Sox have an option they will exercise

 

Garza is a head case. He has not lasted anywhere because he is a clubhouse cancer. No thanks.

 

Kazmir - Might be our 2nd best option.

 

That is really thin folks considering how many teams will be looking for pitching. We have to be realistic that we will probably simply get outbid by one of the major markets. They only realistic target for us in terms of a difference maker is Jimenez if you accept that Garza is not worth the headache and his other teams have all come to that conclusion.

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Listening to interview on 1500ESPN now. To paraphrase this is what he just said:

"I've seen your ERA stat, but I think the pitching has been better than the stats have indicated."

 

:rolleyes:

 

If Ryan thinks the pitching has been better than the ERA stat thinks he should look at the BAA, the QS, the Ks, and the IP for the starters and realize he's delusional and/or fooling no one with that kind of comment.

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It is easy to solve our pitching problem when speaking theoretically. How many 1s/2s are available? Who would you get specifically? Let's keep in mind that there are only a couple teams in MLB that would not want to add a 1 or a 2 and they all have an extra $25M this year.

 

Tanaka – I like the idea but I fear the TV money is going to make the bidding on him crazy. It would be great but it is unrealistic to think we are going to outbid several teams with far deeper pockets.

 

Shields – KC has an option and will exercise it.

 

Jimenez – He has been good this year but his 2013 ERA is about 2 full runs better than 2012/2011. That’s a bit scary but he is probably our best shot.

 

Kuroda – Are we going to outbid the Yankees?

 

Lincecum – His aggregate ERA for the past 2 years is 4.79. Not really even close to as good as Correia. I don't for the life of me understand the love.

 

Hughes – He has been up and down. His aggregate ERA over ERA over the past 4 years is 4.66. Pelfrey’s 4 years prior to TJ averaged 4.27.

 

Johnson is high risk/reward. Great signing if we have two others we can’t count on at least in theory.

 

Lester – Red Sox have an option they will exercise

 

Garza is a head case. He has not lasted anywhere because he is a clubhouse cancer. No thanks.

 

Kazmir - Might be our 2nd best option.

 

That is really thin folks considering how many teams will be looking for pitching. We have to be realistic that we will probably simply get outbid by one of the major markets. They only realistic target for us in terms of a difference maker is Jimenez if you accept that Garza is not worth the headache and his other teams have all come to that conclusion.

 

You pretty much nailed it. The nice thing about Tanaka is that if you win the posting bid, you get exclusive negotiating rights. Given his age, if I was going to toss 50-100M at a guy, it would probably be him (note that includes posting fee). I like Hughes as another signing as well, though honestly, I'd be happy with Tanka or Abreau instead... Tanaka is more of a need obviously.

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From 2008-2010 I was part of a huge season ticket group. We had 4 premium seats. Got together every february and drank beer and picked our games. Good times. I dropped out after they embarrassed themselves AGAIN in the playoffs. Just found out yesterday the group is no more. Everybody dropped out. Kind of sad.

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Haha--

Correia, Pelfrey, Diamond, Gibson, Duensing . . . . your 2014 opening rotation. Ahahahahahaha! If 4/5 or 5/5 of this is correct, I am going to go insane next year. I know it.

 

Would they actually sink to that level of insulting their fans by putting duensing back in the rotation?

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Would they actually sink to that level of insulting their fans by putting duensing back in the rotation?

One has to be creative to assemble a major league (even a poor one) roster for ~$65MM when one guy gets $23MM. It can be done (witness Houston and Miami) but it takes total committment to payroll slashing. The Twins are headed in that direction--but, as in everything they try--they go slowly.

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Attendance should absolutely be a concern. The team sold, IMO, a sizable chunk of season tix on their allstar game promises. Those expire soon and even if Sano and Buxton are amazing it's still likely three years at the soonest that they start to draw fans into more than single game purchases. Attendance could start to be a very real factor precisely at the times most here think it will be time to plunge heavy into FA.

 

If the ERA comment is accurate, that is a major blow to my feelings about Ryan. One thing that has always been impressive about the man is his willingness to be accountable. That comment is both a terrible copout and incredibly false way to evaluate performance. It depens my worries that we still set the bar too low on pitching expectations.

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I'm not sure there's really all that much in the interview to get upset or surprised about. The Twins have one pitcher for next years rotation - Correia. This year they had 8 pitchers make at least 10 starts. Last year it was 9. They'll need arms. Pelfrey managed to throw 150 innings while recovering from TJ surgery. Of course the Twins would want him back. He isn't a great pitcher (although fWAR likes him based on a really low fip) but the Twins need 8. He'll likely be one of them.

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I'm not sure there's really all that much in the interview to get upset or surprised about. The Twins have one pitcher for next years rotation - Correia. This year they had 8 pitchers make at least 10 starts. Last year it was 9. They'll need arms. Pelfrey managed to throw 150 innings while recovering from TJ surgery. Of course the Twins would want him back. He isn't a great pitcher (although fWAR likes him based on a really low fip) but the Twins need 8. He'll likely be one of them.

 

Surprising? Not at all. But I'm not sure fans should be happy when the GM basically tells them to expect 90+ losses again, and for the foreseeable future.

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Attendance should absolutely be a concern. The team sold, IMO, a sizable chunk of season tix on their allstar game promises. Those expire soon and even if Sano and Buxton are amazing it's still likely three years at the soonest that they start to draw fans into more than single game purchases. Attendance could start to be a very real factor precisely at the times most here think it will be time to plunge heavy into FA.

 

If the ERA comment is accurate, that is a major blow to my feelings about Ryan. One thing that has always been impressive about the man is his willingness to be accountable. That comment is both a terrible copout and incredibly false way to evaluate performance. It depens my worries that we still set the bar too low on pitching expectations.

 

1. The full season ticket package is 81 games. I doubt the full package is heavily influenced by 1 All-Star game.

2. Sano and Buxton will be at Target Field no later than September 1st. 1st down payment is due in October on renewals. I would say the soonest is much more likely to be 30-45 days than 3 years.

3. That 1 sentence, 18 word paraphrase has not been verified by another source. Until I hear otherwise, I'm assuming it's no more accurate than the quote provided that Ryan will never participate in free agency again.

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1. The full season ticket package is 81 games. I doubt the full package is heavily influenced by 1 All-Star game.

 

I can tell you as a former season ticket holder that they HEAVILY pushed returning to it for the incentive of getting all-star game tickets. The fact that they haven't seen an even bigger dip in those numbers is very much related to that IMO.

 

As for the rest, it's hard to take your position seriously. Prospect hope doesn't sell season tickets in most any market or any sport. People are interested to see those players, but not to the tune of thousands of dollars before they even know if the team is going to be watchable much less competitive.

 

And even if that hope did sell tickets...a 30-45 day estimate for 1 player that is almost certain not to be on the team next year and another who might not be until July is, again, hard to take seriously. My three year estimate was based on likely having them both completing their rookie years prior to impacting sales.

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