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Postulating for the sake of postulating: 2013-2014 offseason


the_youngster

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The "mid market" and "wait for our prospects to come up" arguments are the same old lines that losing organizations feed their battered fans and then those fans use as excuses to why their team can't compete. I don't buy it. Teams that prioritize winning come up with ways to win. St. Louis, San Francisco, and Atlanta aren't huge markets and they find ways to field competitive teams. What I hear is a front office that sold a line to a city to leverage a new stadium and are now using the same excuses they used before to dupe their fans into believing it is ok to be competitive once or twice every 10 to 15 years.

 

Let me give most of you an update, it is ok to field a competitive roster using multiple sources. It is ok to have too many good players at certain positions, that is called depth. Having good players at the major league who your prospects have to beat out to make the squad is a good thing. This allows prospects to come up when they are ready, not when you are desperate. 5 to 7 year deals are common for top free agents and most of those free agents are close to 30 if not above 30. While this makes it smart to not depend on free agency to build your team, ignoring it as a resource to improve your team is equally stupid. And, regarding that 7 year contract, I am pretty sure the owner can afford to eat 2 years at 13 mil if the front office is smart and can get 5 good years out of a player. Final tip, if your front office is so afraid to sign free agents because of the potential failure, then you need a new front office because yours doesn't believe it can get the job done.

 

Come on fellow Twins fans, demand more from your franchise.

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The "mid market" and "wait for our prospects to come up" arguments are the same old lines that losing organizations feed their battered fans and then those fans use as excuses to why their team can't compete. I don't buy it. Teams that prioritize winning come up with ways to win. St. Louis, San Francisco, and Atlanta aren't huge markets and they find ways to field competitive teams. What I hear is a front office that sold a line to a city to leverage a new stadium and are now using the same excuses they used before to dupe their fans into believing it is ok to be competitive once or twice every 10 to 15 years.

 

Let me give most of you an update, it is ok to field a competitive roster using multiple sources. It is ok to have too many good players at certain positions, that is called depth. Having good players at the major league who your prospects have to beat out to make the squad is a good thing. This allows prospects to come up when they are ready, not when you are desperate. 5 to 7 year deals are common for top free agents and most of those free agents are close to 30 if not above 30. While this makes it smart to not depend on free agency to build your team, ignoring it as a resource to improve your team is equally stupid. And, regarding that 7 year contract, I am pretty sure the owner can afford to eat 2 years at 13 mil if the front office is smart and can get 5 good years out of a player. Final tip, if your front office is so afraid to sign free agents because of the potential failure, then you need a new front office because yours doesn't believe it can get the job done.

 

Come on fellow Twins fans, demand more from your franchise.

 

I dont want to personally attack your statement, but I do not think you are being fair in your post. The Twins had a large run of being competitive. They are simply paying for the mistake with HUnter and Santana. Those trades/free agency hurt a team like the Twins. We are able to talk about prospects coming up because we have the 1st and 3rd best prospects coming to Minnesota very soon. It is not a comp out to say the truth.

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I dont want to personally attack your statement, but I do not think you are being fair in your post. The Twins had a large run of being competitive. They are simply paying for the mistake with HUnter and Santana. Those trades/free agency hurt a team like the Twins. We are able to talk about prospects coming up because we have the 1st and 3rd best prospects coming to Minnesota very soon. It is not a comp out to say the truth.

 

So Ryan not being able to sign these TWO players SIX seasons ago is what's hurting this team?

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I dont want to personally attack your statement, but I do not think you are being fair in your post. The Twins had a large run of being competitive. They are simply paying for the mistake with HUnter and Santana. Those trades/free agency hurt a team like the Twins. We are able to talk about prospects coming up because we have the 1st and 3rd best prospects coming to Minnesota very soon. It is not a comp out to say the truth.

 

In turn, you failed to address chopper's entire post. Look, I know the gulf is wide between the true believers and the true skeptics. But come on here, St Louis, Atlanta and San Fran have all had FAs walk without the clubs "paying" for the mistake ad infinitum-those losses didn't "hurt a team like the Twins", even though all 3 markets and revenue situations strongly resemble "a team like the Twins". And they all are able to talk about legitimate potential prospects coming up every year, not just once this decade, and inordinately delayed in their call-ups, as Sano and Buxton will be, until the "situation is optimal for them to compete." I don't think chopper copped out in any way, but instead stated the truth like it really is.

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The Twins must make "a big splash" to change attitudes and restore competitiveness. September has shown what happens when a team "gives-up". Starting pitching is the primary need and must be the source of "the big splash". A second pitcher, at a typical Twins salary, would show that management is serious about addressing the problem. This "big splash player" will be expensive--but the bullet must be bitten (so to speak) or everyone including the players, will infer just another management song-and-dance for 2014. The entire team cannot be rebuild in a single year, therefore better talent must be added yearly.

The Twins, as well as everyone else has identified starting pitching as the primary need. Therefore, "the big splash" can only come from a starting pitcher, not an Ellsbury.

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So Ryan not being able to sign these TWO players SIX seasons ago is what's hurting this team?

 

Keeping Santana and trading hunter would have been the right answer in terms of how they hurt the team, but hindsight is 20/20 too. I would also add a couple of bad drafts during that timeframe as well. That's one of the big reasons why we are paying for it right now, as those classes are where the Twins would have been pulling minor league talent the last couple of years... and there really hasn't been much there.

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I understand many things can change

from now and 2014, but if you were in charge what would be your plan for bringing our beloved Twins back to relevance? Wait for the young potential stars? Big free agent spending? trades?

 

My personal plan would be to push hard for Ellsbury over the winter. His recent injury may bring down his price, but I doubt Boras will allow that. Add Ellsbury, put him in center (adding a veteran presence so its not all rookies). When Rosario reaches the majors, I would put him back in a corner outfield spot. Ellsbury is definitely a health concern of a player, but he is high risk/high reward. I would rather not trade Rosario for Dozier insurance. If Dozier has found himself, then great, we have a solid second baseman. Having Ellsbury, Rosario, Arcia, and Hicks in the outfield allows us to trade a young outfielder (most likely with a bundle of some form) for at least a number three starter, hopefully a number two. Personally I would trade Hicks, but right now Arcia probably has more value. When Buxton eventually comes up, we again might have an expandable outfielder (maybe more pitching help in a year or two). Lastly, I fall under the category of people who want Phil Hughes (still better than what we have now and can be a #2 at best, hopefully a #3). So in this scenario, we presumably have a true center fielder/veteran (helping the youngsters), a starting pitcher (hopefully a #2) from a trade, and a starting pitcher (hopefully a #3) from free agency. Add in our bullpen, the reinforcements of the future in Buxton/Sano/Rosario/Meyer, the young guys who have already gotten their feet wet (Hicks or Arcia/Gibson/Pinto), and you have actually a solid team (on paper at least). Then you can't forget Mauer, wherever he plays (as long as he does his thing and hits .300+).

 

So that's my plan if I was calling the shots. Now what are yours? I'm genuinely curious to hear what you guys (and maybe ladies? haven't noticed many here ever) would do with millions of dollars and control.

I like your plan, but I dont think Ryan has the creativity to carry out something like that. He just doesnt have that ability.

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The "mid market" and "wait for our prospects to come up" arguments are the same old lines that losing organizations feed their battered fans and then those fans use as excuses to why their team can't compete. I don't buy it. Teams that prioritize winning come up with ways to win. St. Louis, San Francisco, and Atlanta aren't huge markets and they find ways to field competitive teams. What I hear is a front office that sold a line to a city to leverage a new stadium and are now using the same excuses they used before to dupe their fans into believing it is ok to be competitive once or twice every 10 to 15 years.

 

Let me give most of you an update, it is ok to field a competitive roster using multiple sources. It is ok to have too many good players at certain positions, that is called depth. Having good players at the major league who your prospects have to beat out to make the squad is a good thing. This allows prospects to come up when they are ready, not when you are desperate. 5 to 7 year deals are common for top free agents and most of those free agents are close to 30 if not above 30. While this makes it smart to not depend on free agency to build your team, ignoring it as a resource to improve your team is equally stupid. And, regarding that 7 year contract, I am pretty sure the owner can afford to eat 2 years at 13 mil if the front office is smart and can get 5 good years out of a player. Final tip, if your front office is so afraid to sign free agents because of the potential failure, then you need a new front office because yours doesn't believe it can get the job done.

 

Come on fellow Twins fans, demand more from your franchise.

 

I think you are obfuscating the point just a bit. Using Sickle's top 75 prospects, the Twins have 4 guys in the top 75 who will be in AA/AAA next year playing at CF, SP, 3B, and 2B. Those are some of the hardest positions in baseball to get good talent, and all will likely see time at TF next season. They have a 5th guy who is a bit further back. Waiting for the kids is going to make sense in that type of a situation. You don't want to block them by signing guys like Ellsbury or some 3B.

 

Now I agree that we need to go out and get pitching. I'm not sure I agree that we should be doing 5 to 7 year deals to do it. That's just silly. How many of those contracts end up working out? If you do something like that, your young kids will get good just as that huge contract starts becoming a burden. I don't want to burden the next wave with another Nick Blackburn, Joe Mays, etc. Even with TF, the Twins aren't the Yankees or Cubs who can essentially print money.

 

That said, I do think the Twins need to be more proactive on the FA market side of things. Particularly with younger talent. I think the money would be much more wisely spent on the two Cubans and/or Tanaka... I hope I'm not asking too much, but honestly, getting one of those guys would make me pretty happy this offseason.

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Keeping Santana and trading hunter would have been the right answer in terms of how they hurt the team, but hindsight is 20/20 too. I would also add a couple of bad drafts during that timeframe as well. That's one of the big reasons why we are paying for it right now, as those classes are where the Twins would have been pulling minor league talent the last couple of years... and there really hasn't been much there.

 

Whichever scenario...whether it's not signing those two, not signing one and trading the other, or whatever different scenario wants to be thrown out, it still comes down to the fact that it's ridiculous to blame where we are now because of what we did or didn't do with only two players six seasons ago.

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I think the Twins out all of their 2014 eggs in the Tanaka basket. Outbid everyone on the posting fee and give him a long contract.

 

The big dent is on this year's budget. Dollars spent on the posting fee will be off the books. Tanaka isn't enough to make a difference next year. However, he is a key piece for next year and the future. He is young. The posting fee is a one time cost. Since it is a blind bid, the Twins have equal footing with the other teams. Tanaka won't have other major league options once they win the bid. They need to spend everything on Tanaka next year.

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Whichever scenario...whether it's not signing those two, not signing one and trading the other, or whatever different scenario wants to be thrown out, it still comes down to the fact that it's ridiculous to blame where we are now because of what we did or didn't do with only two players six seasons ago.

 

Actually no it's not. We had a couple of bad drafts in that time frame and made two big mistakes with pending free agents. Admittedly, those mistakes are hindsight 20/20 type issues, but when it takes 4-6 years to develop quality major leaguers, 6 year old decisions make a pretty big difference.

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I often see the premise that "long term, high dollar FA contracts don't work" thrown around as fact.

 

i don't think that's true, but for the sake of argument lets stipulate that as a near certainty, any such contract will be regretted later.

 

Id still want the Twins to sign such free agents because I'd trade probably being better for certain in the near future over the theoretical possibility of being better on the distant future.

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I think you are obfuscating the point just a bit. Using Sickle's top 75 prospects, the Twins have 4 guys in the top 75 who will be in AA/AAA next year playing at CF, SP, 3B, and 2B. Those are some of the hardest positions in baseball to get good talent, and all will likely see time at TF next season. They have a 5th guy who is a bit further back. Waiting for the kids is going to make sense in that type of a situation. You don't want to block them by signing guys like Ellsbury or some 3B.

 

Now I agree that we need to go out and get pitching. I'm not sure I agree that we should be doing 5 to 7 year deals to do it. That's just silly. How many of those contracts end up working out? If you do something like that, your young kids will get good just as that huge contract starts becoming a burden. I don't want to burden the next wave with another Nick Blackburn, Joe Mays, etc. Even with TF, the Twins aren't the Yankees or Cubs who can essentially print money.

 

That said, I do think the Twins need to be more proactive on the FA market side of things. Particularly with younger talent. I think the money would be much more wisely spent on the two Cubans and/or Tanaka... I hope I'm not asking too much, but honestly, getting one of those guys would make me pretty happy this offseason.

 

On your first point, I don't see how a player like Ellsbury blocks anyone. The job of the manager is to manage players to keep them happy while also putting the best 9 players on the field. If you want to bring Sano up starting in 2014, then don't sign a free agent 3B. That is fine with me. But, don't use his potential as an excuse to put a pile of crap at the 3B position. If there is a player in free agency who can fill that void, then sign him. You can move him or trade him later if you need to. One way or the other, a move needs to be made. The same goes with Ellsbury. He is a player who can help this team over the next 4 or 5 years. Does it matter if either Ellsbury or Buxton have to play LF or RF instead of CF if they both are producing at a high level. I call that a great problem to have.

 

Regarding FA and 5 to 7 year deals, what top free agents are signing deals that aren't like this? If this is the type of contract that top free agents get, then that is what you have to pay. I agree that you can't field a MLB roster through FA, but you have to take some calculated risks to field a competitive roster. You pay your front office to get these decisions right and if they don't, then you need to get new personnel. Signing a 30 year old to a 5 year deal won't kill your franchise unless he bombs in the first 3 years. After that, you should have prospects coming up and replacing vet players which helps balance out your salary cap. Also, if you sign a #2 SP in free agency, does it really matter if he becomes yuor #4 SP in 3 or 4 years? Roster management should be about balancing short term benefits with long term benefits. Right now, the Twins are ignoring this balance which is why they are struggling. In terms of BLackburn and Mays, are you really stating that you thought these were top signings at the time? They were marginal players with very little room for error and regression which made them poor investments. Middling FAs like this are where teams take the most risk in FA.

 

We agree that the Twins should invest their offseason money in free agents who are young and whose best years are ahead of them. The problem is that these players are in the highest demand and are not what the FA market is flush with.

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Actually no it's not. We had a couple of bad drafts in that time frame and made two big mistakes with pending free agents. Admittedly, those mistakes are hindsight 20/20 type issues, but when it takes 4-6 years to develop quality major leaguers, 6 year old decisions make a pretty big difference.

 

Yeah, obviously we don't agree. If any team can still be so fiercely affected by decisions made on two players who haven't been on the team for 6 seasons, then that team wasn't put together well overall to begin with. They were handled poorly sure, and it negatively affected us, but those bad decisions end up being scapegoat much like how some want to blame everything on Smith.

 

So I'll stick to saying it's a ridiculous idea that we are in such bad shape now because of how we handled Hunter and Santana back in 2007. We have had institutional failure for years on this team. That is why we are where we are.

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Actually no it's not. We had a couple of bad drafts in that time frame and made two big mistakes with pending free agents. Admittedly, those mistakes are hindsight 20/20 type issues, but when it takes 4-6 years to develop quality major leaguers, 6 year old decisions make a pretty big difference.

 

But what you fail to acknowledge is that bad drafts and missed free agents happen to EVERY team. The best teams are the ones that go outside of their ideal model to compensate for these mistakes while losing teams use it as an excuse why they can't compete for several years. Last year the Twins had Morneau coming back from injury and Joe Mauer as a top hitter but no DH on the roster. While they have power on the way in their minor league system, wouldn't it make sense to sign a power option like Mike Napoli to mitigate the risk of Morneau and Mauer while also infusing the lineup with needed power? We saw last year what happens when you play prospect roulette. Hicks was disappointing and Arcia only showed flashes. Why not use free agency to bridge these gaps and allow Hicks to force his way onto the roster rather than keeping him struggling because we didn't have better options? Michael Bourne wasn't that costly and could have been dealt at the deadline if Hicks flourished.

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The Twins must make "a big splash" to change attitudes and restore competitiveness. September has shown what happens when a team "gives-up". Starting pitching is the primary need and must be the source of "the big splash". A second pitcher, at a typical Twins salary, would show that management is serious about addressing the problem. This "big splash player" will be expensive--but the bullet must be bitten (so to speak) or everyone including the players, will infer just another management song-and-dance for 2014. The entire team cannot be rebuild in a single year, therefore better talent must be added yearly.

The Twins, as well as everyone else has identified starting pitching as the primary need. Therefore, "the big splash" can only come from a starting pitcher, not an Ellsbury.

 

I don't believe they need to make a "big splash" but they need to address their needs which are numerous. "Smart splashes" would be smart, but free agency is tough for a team that is not attractive for free agents. We don't bring anything to the table other than money right now which is something that most teams offer. in the end, if we want to improve we will need to upgrade our pitching. Because we have been crappy in developing our own pitching, we will have to overpay to get it from an outside source. Those are the facts.

 

Side note. One would think that if you haven't been able to develop a quality pitcher in house over the past 6 years, you may want to change how your organization is acquiring and developing starting pitchers. Just a thought Twins.

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I don't believe they need to make a "big splash" but they need to address their needs which are numerous. "Smart splashes" would be smart, but free agency is tough for a team that is not attractive for free agents. We don't bring anything to the table other than money right now which is something that most teams offer. in the end, if we want to improve we will need to upgrade our pitching. Because we have been crappy in developing our own pitching, we will have to overpay to get it from an outside source. Those are the facts.

 

Side note. One would think that if you haven't been able to develop a quality pitcher in house over the past 6 years, you may want to change how your organization is acquiring and developing starting pitchers. Just a thought Twins.

Some of that was institutional module(pitch to contact), some of that was bad luck in all the high draft pick pitchers had TJ surgery and lost time to get to the majors (one may never with the Twins). I agree with the new module of taking high school pitchers and not abusing them like college coaches and expecting a longer time to get here. Terry Ryan can change. Twins need to spend FA dollars on pitching and only pitching as we do not have the trade pieces to get pitching this winter. Like Josh Johnson and Lincecum(though I believe he will get a qualifying offer which I would not give up a second round pick in a deep draft to sign). The Twins will have to overpay(as will all clubs), so pick up the under or around 30 pitchers for the 3-4 year contracts. Hughes I do not like because he may not be able to beat the better power teams. If you want to take a chance on an older pitcher fine, but hold it to 1-2 years. Pelfrey would be better than most of the AAAA pitchers the Twins have. Use them at Rochester to give the fans there a ball club with a chance of making and doing well in the playoffs.

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I don't think losing Torii Hunter to free-agency has made one ounce of difference. Complete and absolute non-factor at this point in time.

 

The Santana trade was bad in a bad situation but Id argue the Garza-Bartlett for Young did more long-term damage, as was jettisoning JJ Hardy.

 

I have no hope at this point that anything changes and next year is a 90 loss season as well.

 

Also there is no 100% guarantee that those 4 of the top 75 turn into star caliber players. At one time Delmon Young was a BA #1

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.

 

So I'll stick to saying it's a ridiculous idea that we are in such bad shape now because of how we handled Hunter and Santana back in 2007. We have had institutional failure for years on this team. That is why we are where we are.

 

The handling of Hunter/Santana were not causal, merely symptoms of the actual disease within the organization, a disease of willingly misguided myopia and mendacious miserliness, that directly led Terry Ryan to abandon his post in his first go round at the helm. Needless to say, despite the "cure" that Target Field was claimed to be by ownership, the disease still runs rampant throughout the organization.

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I don't think losing Torii Hunter to free-agency has made one ounce of difference. Complete and absolute non-factor at this point in time.

 

The Santana trade was bad in a bad situation but Id argue the Garza-Bartlett for Young did more long-term damage, as was jettisoning JJ Hardy.

 

I have no hope at this point that anything changes and next year is a 90 loss season as well.

 

Also there is no 100% guarantee that those 4 of the top 75 turn into star caliber players. At one time Delmon Young was a BA #1

 

Well stated. People are betting big on the assumption hype that all of these prospects are going to magically sprinkle parade-inducing pixie dust when they all arrive in 2015......when in fact, a 50% return in all of our top prospects becoming impact players would be considered unusually high. And that number of producing prospects, in and of itself, simply won't be nearly enough to dig this team out of the whole it's dug for itself, despite what the optimists are wishcasting on Twins Daily.

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I haven't put my plan together yet but some ideas: I would go after Tanaka and sign Josh Johnson and/or Tim Lincecum. Both have the potential to be #1-3 pitchers on a staff. Even with Lincecum's "problems" he still is averaging 1 strike out an inning and his FIP and xFIP are in the 3's. I would toss money at them to entice them to a shorter contract then, if we're not competing, eat that salary in a trade (assuming they have pitched well enough to garner a trade). Or if they are amenable and they are pitching well look at working out a longer term contract.

 

I also think I would start asking about Chris Owings, Jurickson Profar, Alcantara (although trading with the Cubs is unlikely), and pitchers like Tyler Glasnow, Luis Heredia, Lucas Sims, Julio Urias and Lucas Giolito. Giolito and Urias are both very intriguing, Giolito because he might be a good buy low candidate (and he plays for the Nats with whom Ryan has a good working relationship) and Urias because he just seems destined to be a stud. He dominated A-ball as a 16 year old that already has a low 90's FB. I don't know if we match up well with any of those teams in particular but I would put Perkins and Mauer on the table, though I'm guessing Mauer's ship has sailed with this concussion.

 

On a longer term note I'm really hoping that Stuart Turner turns into a pitch framing stud and that he can hit enough to start.

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Why would Giolito be a buy low candidate? He's doing very well in the minors and was a first rounder.

 

That statement probably needed further explanation. He will definitely cost something of value but he has hardly pitched in the last 2 years after hurting his arm in HS that required TJ surgery. He only threw 36 innings this season and hasn't pitched in full season ball yet. He has some very serious risks attached to him currently. So if one is trying to acquire potential front-line starters, which I was looking for, he might be "cheap" in comparison to say Kyle Zimmer, Aaron Sanchez or Robert Stephenson. Dylan Bundy could be another "buy low" candidate coming off his surgery.

 

Given the Twins' current "stockpile" of tradeable talent it is going to be hard to acquire a top tier pitching prospect and so looking for a risk might be required.

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That statement probably needed further explanation. He will definitely cost something of value but he has hardly pitched in the last 2 years after hurting his arm in HS that required TJ surgery. He only threw 36 innings this season and hasn't pitched in full season ball yet. He has some very serious risks attached to him currently. So if one is trying to acquire potential front-line starters, which I was looking for, he might be "cheap" in comparison to say Kyle Zimmer, Aaron Sanchez or Robert Stephenson. Dylan Bundy could be another "buy low" candidate coming off his surgery.

 

Given the Twins' current "stockpile" of tradeable talent it is going to be hard to acquire a top tier pitching prospect and so looking for a risk might be required.

 

Thanks for the clarification.

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That statement probably needed further explanation. He will definitely cost something of value but he has hardly pitched in the last 2 years after hurting his arm in HS that required TJ surgery. He only threw 36 innings this season and hasn't pitched in full season ball yet. He has some very serious risks attached to him currently. So if one is trying to acquire potential front-line starters, which I was looking for, he might be "cheap" in comparison to say Kyle Zimmer, Aaron Sanchez or Robert Stephenson. Dylan Bundy could be another "buy low" candidate coming off his surgery.

 

Given the Twins' current "stockpile" of tradeable talent it is going to be hard to acquire a top tier pitching prospect and so looking for a risk might be required.

 

I think it's a great idea, but maybe premature. I think we have to wait on our 10-20 prospects to play out before we will have the ammo. I have no problem using Perkins as our headliner at a trading deadline deal, but I can't see any other chips at this time. If we can get Butera deals from The Hammer and Doumit I'd be happy.

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I think it's a great idea, but maybe premature. I think we have to wait on our 10-20 prospects to play out before we will have the ammo. I have no problem using Perkins as our headliner at a trading deadline deal, but I can't see any other chips at this time. If we can get Butera deals from The Hammer and Doumit I'd be happy.

 

I think Aaron Gleeman hit the nail on the head when he said Perkins has less value at the trade deadline because teams are looking at relievers as 3 month rentals that don't cost much. They want the biggest bang for the littlest buck. I think Perkins value will be greatest during the off season because teams are making their longer term plans which would maximize his contract status. I would move him this off season probably.

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Surprising how many of these posters want change for changes sake. You have to make good baseball deals and other GM's are not fools. Unless the Twins have another good closer in waiting(and at this time not sure one is on the club) would not trade Perkins now(it is a good thought depending on the return). Twins need pitching, pitching and more pitching. Will post more on this in my prospective for next year.

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7. Escobar is younger, so I think he has more room for growth. Could be wrong. that one was typed up but not that important either way I don't think.

 

Sorry to picks nits, but Florimon is just not suited to be a backup. Gardy tried him at second and third in ST, and he was very uncomfortable. He has 2 games away from SS in over 800 minor and major league league games. Escobar is comfortable and capable all over the infield and has some time in the OF. He was also our emergency catcher early in the season, when we had only Mauer and Doumit. Escobar's a Punto type - a decent utility guy, not a starter.

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