Postulating for the sake of postulating: 2013-2014 offseason

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't get the Ellsbury love, OF is pretty far down on the list of things to fill. What I'd do? Trade a couple of relievers for some prospects, promote Tonkin. Go hard after the two Cubans and Tanaka, hoping to get one of them (preferably Tanaka). Sign Hughes to a 3 year deal. Plan on midseason trades of Doumit and Willingham. Make a plan for phasing in Sano, Meyer, May, Darnell, Pinto, Rosario, and potentially Buxton.

[howieramone1406390264]

I don't get the Ellsbury love, OF is pretty far down on the list of things to fill. What I'd do? Trade a couple of relievers for some prospects, promote Tonkin. Go hard after the two Cubans and Tanaka, hoping to get one of them (preferably Tanaka). Sign Hughes to a 3 year deal. Plan on midseason trades of Doumit and Willingham. Make a plan for phasing in Sano, Meyer, May, Darnell, Pinto, Rosario, and potentially Buxton.

It really is that simple. If things don't quite work out, there is still plenty of time before the parade starts in 2015.

[the_youngster]

Personally my preference for Ellsbury lies with the idea of intentionally creating an outfield glut. Right now it is more difficult than ever to get top of the end starters if you don't bring them up yourself. Teams are holding on to their pitchers to the death. Then add in how pitchers are getting paid in free agency, only the team who pays too much gets the player. As excited as I am for Meyer to come up, I don't want to put all of our hopes of a future rotation with him alone as the centerpiece. From my point of view, trading one of our younger outfielders for a starting pitcher is one of the last avenues for acquiring pitching for the near future. For example (I have no backing for this trade, but it is the basic concept) trade Hicks (and maybe some one else, maybe a reliever) for Derek Holland of the Rangers. Holland would instantly be our best pitcher. But if things play out, by 2015 he would be passed up by Gibson and Meyer. I would love a 2015 rotation Meyer, Gibson, holland, a free agent (lets say Hughes), and someone else.

[howieramone1406390264]

Personally my preference for Ellsbury lies with the idea of intentionally creating an outfield glut. Right now it is more difficult than ever to get top of the end starters if you don't bring them up yourself. Teams are holding on to their pitchers to the death. Then add in how pitchers are getting paid in free agency, only the team who pays too much gets the player. As excited as I am for Meyer to come up, I don't want to put all of our hopes of a future rotation with him alone as the centerpiece. From my point of view, trading one of our younger outfielders for a starting pitcher is one of the last avenues for acquiring pitching for the near future. For example (I have no backing for this trade, but it is the basic concept) trade Hicks (and maybe some one else, maybe a reliever) for Derek Holland of the Rangers. Holland would instantly be our best pitcher. But if things play out, by 2015 he would be passed up by Gibson and Meyer. I would love a 2015 rotation Meyer, Gibson, holland, a free agent (lets say Hughes), and someone else.

 

Let me add 2 thoughts. I agree you never want to put yourself in a position where you are dependent on one young starting pitcher. We were stuck this year waiting for Gibson, and we don't want to be stuck next year waiting for Meyer. That's why the wish list is Hughes+Tananka or the Cuban pitcher. If we get outbid in the International market, we need another FA starting pitcher better than anyone we currently have.

 

The trade for a starting pitcher for a Hicks or Rosario type prospect and a major league reliever, I believe is a year premature and there is no need to spent 100M on Ellsbury to get in that position. Just my thoughts.

[Major League Ready]

There have been a few - Nationals signed Werth to a long term contract when they still sucked but obviously had the right pieces ready moving forward. And the Nats might have been a top 10 revenue team. Not sure.

 

Brewers signed Lohse last year and I think they lost a draft pick b/c of that. Not sure if you call Lohse elite.

 

Instead of elite, I should have probably said 5+ year deals. Those are the ones that are likely to hurt the team in the final couple years. Lohse is a good example of a very good player who can bridge the gap until our young players are here in force. 3 years is a reasonable risk, especially now because that contract will be off the books by the time we are contending.

[the_youngster]

And that is why we are having this discussion, to bounce around ideas. I appreciate your input, as it is through the conversation we can formulate the best plan (even if it is only among fans). My only retort would be that hopefully Ellsbury's injury and health history brings him below the 100M mark. I too would be leery of 100M on Ellsbury, but that is why I have refrained from putting a price on him so far. Would 90M or 85M be a different story? As long as it's not 10 years 305M (looking at you Boras/Cano).

[stringer bell]

Really leery of signing speed guys in the 30s. Ellsbury is 30, has an injury history, and has put up one year of +.800 OPS. While I'm not a huge fan of Presley, he can hold center for Hicks and be a bitter better than replacement player. He would make a decent fourth OF when/if Hicks or Buxton claims center field full-time. From Mike's comments, I disagree totally with Aaron Hicks becoming solely a RH hitter, and Florimon has earned the starting job for the beginning of 2014 (no more-no less). I think Escobar profiles as a utility infielder with a ceiling of three-position "10th starter". Despite the offensive struggles, the area this teams needs the most turnover and improvement in is starting pitching. I would take a flyer on Mike Pelfrey if the price is right.

[Reider]

I would like to see the Twins sign 2 quality starting pitchers.

[beckmt]

Still would like Johnson and Lincecum if not qualified. Hughes is too much of the same old, but a fallback position. Maybe on of the older starting pitchers if for 1-2 years. Twins have plenty of outfielders coming to waste money on Ellsbury. Spend the money on pitching.

[Major League Ready]

Still would like Johnson and Lincecum if not qualified. Hughes is too much of the same old, but a fallback position. Maybe on of the older starting pitchers if for 1-2 years. Twins have plenty of outfielders coming to waste money on Ellsbury. Spend the money on pitching.

 

I watch very little national leauge baseball so someone has to explain to me why Lincecum is a solution to out pitching problem. Over the last two years, his ERA is 4.79. Hughes is 4.63. To put that in perspective, Correia's is 4.19. I realize ERA alone is not a complete measure but it seems to me the logic is Lincecum used to be great so it would be great to have him on our team.

[Siehbiscuit]

I am in the Hughes camp moreso than Lincecum. Hughes still has velocity on his fastball. Getting out from under the NY media market could do wonders as well. I personally would prefer Hughes AND Ubaldo Jimenez.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I watch very little national leauge baseball so someone has to explain to me why Lincecum is a solution to out pitching problem. Over the last two years, his ERA is 4.79. Hughes is 4.63. To put that in perspective, Correia's is 4.19. I realize ERA alone is not a complete measure but it seems to me the logic is Lincecum used to be great so it would be great to have him on our team.

 

It's a name recognition thing... Linci hasn't been nearly as good as he used to be... I'd avoid that signing unless it's for peanuts.

 

I'd add that I think Ellsbury is a similar situation. He's not going to be worth whatever he signs for and I think there's a very real chance he's outproduced by Presley, and I'm not expecting Presley to be some massive steal either. Other than that one season, Ellsbury hasn't been all that good.

[Mike Sixel]

Presley is 28, two years younger than Ellsbury, and has never been good.....

 

Not good beyond one year? look at his WAR year after year.....

Since becoming a full time player, he has the 4th highest WAR of any CFer

He has the 9th highest WAR of ALL OFers since he became a full time player

 

This year alone, he stole 52 of 56 bases....he is not yet slowing down.

 

I don't think people understand how good he is.

[nicksaviking]

Presley is 28, two years younger than Ellsbury, and has never been good.....

 

Not good beyond one year? look at his WAR year after year.....

Since becoming a full time player, he has the 4th highest WAR of any CFer

He has the 9th highest WAR of ALL OFers since he became a full time player

 

This year alone, he stole 52 of 56 bases....he is not yet slowing down.

 

I don't think people understand how good he is.

 

No doubt Ellsbury is preferable to Presley but the Twins can comfortably cut bait with Presley anytime. Ellsbury on a 5-7 year $120-170 million deal will be hard to get rid of. As said previously, speed is always the first thing to go. When his stolen bases decline over the next couple of years I think we won't be very happy with the player we are left with considering the contract. His strikeouts are trending up and his 2011 HR numbers look like a mirage now.

 

To be fair, I've never been a big fan, mostly because his game was so speed reliant and I never put that high of value on stolen bases. I'd overpay for him on a three year deal but he'll most likely get double those years.

[Mike Sixel]

I get why people don't want to sign him, but I'm not sure who people want to sign that won't require 5+ years that is really good, now or in the future, if they won't sign 29 and 30 year old players.

 

If not Ellsbury, how do people expect the team to be better next year? There are no high end pitchers, you've all eliminated any FA who is "old" from consideration? Just roll with the prospects, hope 100% of them work out, and wait 2-3 more years?

[Major League Ready]

I get why people don't want to sign him, but I'm not sure who people want to sign that won't require 5+ years that is really good, now or in the future, if they won't sign 29 and 30 year old players.

 

If not Ellsbury, how do people expect the team to be better next year? There are no high end pitchers, you've all eliminated any FA who is "old" from consideration? Just roll with the prospects, hope 100% of them work out, and wait 2-3 more years?

 

There is no way around the fact that this team will not be a contender unless and until our top prospects make it here. We are a mid-market team with modest revenue. We can't buy our way into contension. And, we have to get a better performance/dollar out of our players/acquisitions than the top markets. We already have one elite $23M/year player on the books. To add another one right now and have them both likely declining when we are about to contend would be the most irresponsible move TR could possibly make.

 

If we were to make such a move, the timing from an organizational develoment standpoint would be where the Royals are right now. We have enough incremental revenue compared to KC to add a toip tier FA to push us over the top. Doing it now would be for the sake of not sucking next year but at the cost of the ability to add the same level player when we actually which hole to fill and when our team could actually contend via the addition of such a FA.

[Mike Sixel]

I've laid out a plan and number of wins from that plan that is different than "we can't succeed for 2-4 years" above. No place did I imply 1 player would make a difference, but 1 legit hitter, 1 legit pitcher, and one roll of the die pitcher, and Gibson being mediocre, and Arcia being up all year, and Dozier being good all year.....that's a lot of wins.

 

Doing it now is not about "not sucking". it is about potentially competing. And, if Sano and Buxton are up in 2015, Ellsbury will still likely be good. Not sure why they need to wait for the perfect moment to try to be good.

[Major League Ready]

I've laid out a plan and number of wins from that plan that is different than "we can't succeed for 2-4 years" above. No place did I imply 1 player would make a difference, but 1 legit hitter, 1 legit pitcher, and one roll of the die pitcher, and Gibson being mediocre, and Arcia being up all year, and Dozier being good all year.....that's a lot of wins.

 

Doing it now is not about "not sucking". it is about potentially competing. And, if Sano and Buxton are up in 2015, Ellsbury will still likely be good. Not sure why they need to wait for the perfect moment to try to be good.

 

You are twisting (dramatically) the message that those of us who recognize there are not any mid-market or lower teams that even attempt to build through major FA acquisitions. I guess the the whole leauge must just not get it. I don't here anyone saying we can't get competitive. For example, Lohse would have been a great acquisition on a 3-year deal. Unfortunately, that bridge was burned.

 

While you are quick to point out that prospects oftern don't pan out you universally ignore that FA often substantially underperform. (Hamillton, Pujlos, Bourne) Three of the top 4 FA position players have been horrible. Swisher, the 4th has been decent but not exactly a big difference maker. He ranks 16th amongst 1B with a 758 OPS. The Cubs basically tried to do what you are advocating. How did that turn out for them? That "one good pitcher" has an ERA of 4.74. How many wins would we have improved this year if we have employed your approach and got Jackson and Hamilton or Jackson and Bourne?

[AlwaysinModeration]

I don't get the Ellsbury love, OF is pretty far down on the list of things to fill. What I'd do? Trade a couple of relievers for some prospects, promote Tonkin. Go hard after the two Cubans and Tanaka, hoping to get one of them (preferably Tanaka). Sign Hughes to a 3 year deal. Plan on midseason trades of Doumit and Willingham. Make a plan for phasing in Sano, Meyer, May, Darnell, Pinto, Rosario, and potentially Buxton.

 

 

Im with you all the way (no to Ellsbury), but Darnell?

 

I would also like to see, when they don't get Tanaka, either Lincecum or Josh Johnson signed, in addition to Hughes.

 

What would people think of Joba?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Im with you all the way (no to Ellsbury), but Darnell?

 

I would also like to see, when they don't get Tanaka, either Lincecum or Josh Johnson signed, in addition to Hughes.

 

What would people think of Joba?

 

I dont' consider Darnel a major prospect, but he gets a shot next year, and I think he can be something better than a 5 starter. I haven't seen him pitch, but he seems to be able to put out some high K games on occasion. I do think he can be a decent mid-rotation arm, which is nothing to sneeze at. I also think that Worely should get another chance, and I'm not sure we should give up on Deduno quite yet either. KC is also in the rotation, so I'm not terrible sure the Twins should go out and get a ton of guys. Honestly, if they just got Tanaka, I'd be thrilled. Hughes as their other pitcher would be nice too, but you have to keep some spots open for the young guys coming up.

[Mike Sixel]

I've never said FAs don't work out sometimes, people asked, on this thread, what I would do to make the team competitive sooner rather than later. I suggested signing one "decline phase" FA in my plan, 1. I think that guy will not fall off the face of the earth in the next 3-4 years (yes, he might at the end of the deal, but that is the chance you take if you ever want to sign a FA) and 1 expensive guy in his prime.

 

We can disagree on our prediction of whether or not Ellsbury will decline too fast, but to state it like fact is no better than what you are accusing me of doing.

 

As for no one saying they can't be competitive next year, there are several posts in this thread saying that exactly.

 

I disagree, and it is ok to disagree.

 

The OP asked for suggestions on how to be better next year, I gave them. Feel free to disagree.

[jorgenswest]

It must be acknowledged that as a group of players in their thirties, the performance of the free agent class will decline each year including the first year.

 

The top free agents will get 5-6 years. The Twins have to expect that they will be a shadow of their current self in the end years of the contract and will be a burden to the payroll. Mid market teams can't afford to sign top free agents every off season. Is this the offseason?

 

The risk works when the team has a successful season early in the contract. For the Twins success is the playoffs or maybe even competing in September. The downside, of course, is that the improvement of the young players 3-5 years down the road is balanced by the decline of the large contract players (Mauer + free agents) and the Twins improve but never become a top team. That may have been the bar for success in 2010. The bar has dropped significantly. I think success might be the fringe of the wild card now.

 

However, there is another risk. There is a risk the Twins won't maintain the revenue of a midmarket team if they don't improve towards 80 wins. They have a poor TV contract. They live by the revenue of Target Field. They can't afford to do nothing. For them it is far better to contend on the fringe of the wild card and fill seats for the next decade. Maybe they will get lucky and make it once or twice.

 

They need to make those key top free agent signings this winter. They will grow old with Mauer and be a burden on the payroll in 2016-2017. With their help next year and the young players coming the Twins should be able to be in the fringe of the wild card mix and sell tickets.

 

If they don't sign those guys, revenue will drop and they may not have revenue to sign them in the future. Maybe they will get lucky and the guys they sign will be the ones that defy decline and injury as they age.

[Major League Ready]

I actually think highly of Ellsbury. Unfortunately, the timing is absolutely horrible. Signing him or a player like him at this stage of team development and Mauer at the same age with 5 years remaining on his contract would be incompetent IMO.

 

We can quibble over the definition of fact. I think there is ample evidence to consider it a fact that many FAs don’t don’t pan out from day one. An even higher percentage will decline substantially at the end of their contract and speed players are even more prone to decline in terms of relative performance.

 

I don’t believe next year is lost at all. However, the original OP did not ask what “you” would do to be competitive next year. He asked “what would be your plan for bringing our beloved Twins back to relevance?” How this is interpreted is an illustration of the real basis for the different perspectives seen here. Some are all in / got to get better right now. Others are looking at it as a multi-year process.

 

Next year does not look so bad to me if SOME of the following happen. Starting with position players because it is easier to project

 

1B – Abreu / Mauer / Morales / Morneau / Reynolds

2B – Dozier plays somewhere near his 2013 2^nd half performance

SS – Florimon – Will not hurt us if he does not get better but could be aleauge average offensively if he can learn to lay-off pitches in the dirt

3B – Plouffe gives way to Sano by June and become a utility player in the lineup against LHP or gets traded.

C – Pinto does not have a sophomore slump

DH/OF – Willingham has an average or better year

DH/OF – Arcia hits as projected. Could be great if he learns to lay-off high heat.

CF – Presley is no prize but can hold down center until Buxton gets here. As long as we are hoping …. Hick’s starts out well at AAA and makes it up by June.

OF – There are several decent FA OFs. One of them on a 3-year deal might be a goiod idea.

OF – Rosario start out hot at AAA and is here by June.

 

Pitching – God helps us.

SP - Worley or Diamond returns to meet expectations. I guess to quantify that means an ERA between 3.6 – 4.0.

SP – Correia gives us exactly the same as this year.

SP – Tanaka is the big move I think makes by far the most sense. The TV revenue increase is likely to make the bidding on him crazy so I don’t like our odds even if TR is aggressive. It could get out of hand.

SP – Next best move would be a very aggressive 3-4 year offer to Jimenez.

SP – Phil Hughes won’t transform our team but he would be a solid addition

SP – Josh Johnson as the high risk/reward addition.

SP – Pelfrey on a 2-year $12M contract. Insurance policy. He should be at least serviceable back of the rotation SP now 2 years removed from TJ.

SP- Consider Swarzak or Duensing to move to a spot in the rotation.

SP – Try Hendriks in long relief.

Management – I don’t blame Gardenhire. He did not have the players to win and he did not get dumber since being MoY in 2010 and 3 times R/U for MoY. However, it might be time to try something new. The question TR needs to answer is if Gardenhire is the right guy to guide the development of Sano/Buxton/Arcia/ Rosario/Meyer/etc.

 

The only thing that went right this year was Dozier’s second two-thirds of the season and Correia gave us what we expected. We are due for a handful of the positives above to come to fruition.

[Shane Wahl]

Why would anyone pay Mike Pelfrey $12 million for 2 years? If that how this team spends money, then it hasn't learned a damn thing from the past or present.

[Shane Wahl]

Swarzak and Duensing are relievers and only became good as relievers. End of story.

[orangevening]

Why would anyone pay Mike Pelfrey $12 million for 2 years? If that how this team spends money, then it hasn't learned a damn thing from the past or present.

 

Tell us exactly how you feel about Mike Pelfrey....:s-instagib:

[Shane Wahl]

Tell us exactly how you feel about Mike Pelfrey....:s-instagib:

 

 

They just are now getting Nick Blackburn off their hands. Why continue it?

[Major League Ready]

Swarzak and Duensing are relievers and only became good as relievers. End of story.

 

I agree but desperate times require desperate measures.

 

On Pelfrey, I first wrote 2/10 but changed it thought back to last year and realized someone is going to give him 2/12. The FO made a mistake thinking he was going to a ML pitcher at the start of the year but he was decent the last half of the year. Pelfrey would not be my first or second choice but there is as good a risk that he will uptick this year as several of the SPs who got 6-7M last year. Many people here asked why in the heck Correia got 2/10. Well, he was better than some who got much more and a lot better than some who got the same or slightly more.

[Major League Ready]

David Murphy has had an offf year but he has been a pretty decent player. What do you gents think about attempting to sign Murphy for outfield depth?

[Mike Sixel]

Major league ready, the only delta in your plan and mine is abreu instead of Ellsbery, otherwise the plans are almost identical. Not sure why my plan seems so bad then.

 

edit, actually, you spend more money on FA pitching than my plan.